Towards a Regional Flagship Report

October, 2011 Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank

(dverner@worldbank.org)

CC is the development challenge of our time, globally & in the Arab countries

CC is a threat to poverty reduction and

economic growth May reverse many of the development gains

made in recent decades

This calls for action We need to act now, act together, and act

differently (World Bank, 2010)

3

I. MENA Flagship report I. Objective and Outputs II. Process and Scope III. Preliminary findings IV. Next steps

Current and projected

climate variability and

change

Other stresses, e.g.:

Increase in population,

urbanization and education

in the Arab countries

Calls for climate change

adaptation to reduce the

negative impacts and build climate

resilient communities

Increased Vulnerability

Flagship Report:

Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab countries that provides: ▪ Information on climate change and consequences ▪ Practical guidance on adaptation to climate change for

policymakers

Documentary on the climate change impacts and adaptation options in selected Arab countries

We address the Arab region as a whole In the IPCC reports the Arab world is split in 2 parts: North Africa

(Africa Ch) & Arabian Peninsula (Asia Ch)

WB is producing the report in partnership with League of Arab States & with inputs from Arab countries:

▪ researchers, institutions, and governments

Chapters are drafted by a lead & contributing authors from the region

▪ Summarize the literature in Arabic, French, and English ▪ Identify gaps and provide policy options

Advisers from the region guide the process

Talented young regional researchers are given an opportunity to contribute through face-to-face and web-based interactions

Arab governments are invited to comment and contribute

Chapter Tentative Title:

1 Climate Change and its Economic and Poverty Impacts 2 Ways Forward for Climatology in the Arab Region

3 Options to Reduce Water Stress

4 Improving Rural Livelihoods, Agriculture, and Food Security

5 Improving Urban Livelihoods & Living Conditions

6 Gendered Adaptation to a Changing Climate

7 Improving Health in a Changing Climate

8 A Country Model for Adaptation to a Changing Climate

THE FOLLOWING SLIDES SHOW PRELIMINARY FINDINGS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS WE FINALIZE THE REPORT

Climate change is happening now. In 2010 alone: the warmest year since records began in the late 1800s

▪ Kuwait (52.6 C), Iraq & Saudi Arabia (52.0 C), Qatar (50.4 C) & Sudan (49.7 )

Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record ▪ Cyclone Phet peaked at Category 4 strength; ▪ Oman: killing 44 people & wreaking $700 M in damage

Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of record summer ocean water temp

Over the recent decades throughout the region: Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3 C per decade More frequent and intense heat waves Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased

frequency of droughts and floods Loss of winter precipitation storage in snow mass,

inducing summer droughts & loss of winter snow and potentially in tourism All threatening lives and crops & exposing new areas

to vector borne diseases

Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4 C/decade This is 1.5 times faster than the global average

Most of North Africa and the eastern

Mediterranean will become drier Possible increases in rainfall southern Sudan, Djibouti

and Yemen

But greater variability and more extremes everywhere

Sea level rise threatening river deltas, coastal cities, wetlands, and

small island nations, i.e. Comoros and Bahrain with storm surges, salinized water, and flooding 1.0 m sea level rise will affect 3.2% of the population in

MENA – 3 times more than the global average

Climate adaptation strategies that people have exploited throughout history may no longer be available

2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300 years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures that forced people to abandon their rainfed fields in NE Syria

Now only option is move to urban areas, e.g. for the Bedu in the Arab countries

The poor are the most vulnerable because of their high dependence on natural resources for their livelihoods poverty status and level of education geographic location and migrant status

Climate change is superimposed on existing risks and vulnerabilities faced by poor; Asset-poor Bedu in the arid areas of the Arabian Peninsula

have few resources and little capacity to adapt to the changing climate

Their limited capacity to cope with climate extremes renders them vulnerable

The economies of Arab countries are projected to be more affected by CC as time passes through CC at the national level & CC occurring in other countries The estimation of potential economic impacts of CVC done by linking:

▪ the downscaling of selected GCMs, ▪ crop models ▪ global economic models, and ▪ subnational-level CGE with micro-simulation modeling

Large near and long-term welfare reductions due to

CC; measured by household incomes (HI) while taking into account autonomous adaptation, e.g.: By 2020, HI projected reduced: Syria $527 M & Yemen $314.4 M By 2050, HI projected reduced: Syria $3.4 B & Yemen $5.7 B

The number of drought years has increased & droughts are becoming more frequent Avg drought reduce economic growth (GDP) by ~1 pp

compared to non-drought year (CGE) Food security worsens significantly during droughts

and the poor are hit the hardest ▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices ▪ poor farm households are most affected, followed by rural

nonfarm and urban households ▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp

Floods are becoming more frequent and induce heavy

economic losses & spikes in food insecurity and hunger, e.g. in Yemen: High magnitude flooding leads to loss of crop land, animals,

and infrastructure, e.g. irrigation facilities and rural roads Total income loss over 2008-12: 180% of pre-flood

agricultural value added Number of hungry people spiked 15 percentage points

Water scarcity is a constraint to socio-economic dev. Today there is already 16% renewable water supply gap met by overexploiting renewable water resources, depleting groundwater and

desalinating at high societal and environmental cost

In 2050, the region will likely face a 10% reduction in water run off due to climate change 50% renewable water supply gap, hence water need to be e.g. imported; desalinated,

etc.

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050

Renewable Water Resources Total Water Demand

51%

% of demand unmet by renewable sources

37% 16%

Water, km3

year

The report repeatedly finds Jordan is an example of best

practice regarding water resources management (Jordan Valley, etc)

Advanced grey water treatment and use Effective tariff schemes Support for private water suppliers Water law enforcement force

But the water availability is one of the lowest in the world 163 m3 per capita, only Gulf states and Libya has less

Climate modeling suggests that the important winter

precipitation be cut in half by 2050 and temperatures will be 2C higher

Jordan has successfully adapted to increasing demand for

water in an arid environment until now, but an important question is: can Jordan continue to adapt in a changing climate?

Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to high dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture

80% of the water goes to agricultural production Increasing water scarcity will require more efficient or less

agricultural water consumption Climate resilient production calls for climate resilient crops,

animals, trees and fish species, incl. drought & salt tolerant ones Stresses to local food production systems calls for

increased import share to bridge the availability gap in most countries Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease food

access for vulnerable households =>Negative impact on rural livelihoods and incomes

Without basic services, residents of informal settlements have little capacity to adapt to environmental challenges and CC hazards

CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front when making urban infrastructure decisions and investments

0

20

40

60

80

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Arab World World Yemen UAE Tunisia

Arab cou has higher u.r. than rest of the world

Majority of the 37,000 km of Arab coastline are developed and low-lying coastal zones

Urbanization rates, %

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen

Women Men

CC impacts men and women differently Traditional gender roles e.g. imply that woman fetch water

Data suggests women are among those least able to adapt because they are often responsible for natural resource & hh management often have limited participation in the decision-making process

=> smart climate policy is an inclusive process where men & women are empowered and take part in the decision making

Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004)

The Jordan is the first Arab country both to mainstream

gender in adaptation policy and

The national women’s strategy incorporates awareness of climate change and the linkages between gender, gender equality, and adaptation.

However, women make up a small proportion of total landowners: 29 percent in Jordan (albeit higher than in all other Arab countries)

Jordan is beginning from a leadership role but faces enormous problems. This calls for all youth, woman & men being involved in the decision-making process

Specifically malaria, dengue and other vector borne and waterborne diseases

The most vulnerable to climate related diseases are: internally displaced & those with low socio-economic

status residents of low lying areas and camps and slums those who work outdoors, e.g. in construction

Healthcare systems in most Arab countries are currently unable to provide well for the climate related health needs due to lack of data

An IPCC approach to drafting

January 2011: First workshop ▪ Identified links between the topic areas ▪ Developed annotated outline of the background paper for each

chapter

March 2011: “Zero” drafts provided by Lead Authors ▪ Posted on Internet for public review and comments

June 2011: Second workshop: writing workshop ▪ Chapters were substantially improved ▪ Creation of mini-chapters on cross-cutting issues

July 2011: Authors provided a well-formed draft ▪ This draft form the basis of the preparation of the current 1st

draft report

October 2011: Draft to LAS & MoEs for comments ▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS ▪ Consultations: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE (TBC)

December: Cop17 side-event, e.g. with Gov. of Lebanon January 2012: Third workshop: ▪ Incorporating comments provided by the governments, etc.

February/ March 2012: Finalize the report April 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...

This consultation is an important part of the process of producing the report It is your chance to contribute and

comment on the current draft Equivalent to IPCC’s Government and

Expert Review stage

The draft report will be up on the internet (web address in the flyer) This is your change to let us know

what you think about the report Please read it and send us comments

and suggestions for improvements Thank you in advance.

Italian Development Cooperation

European Union

International Fund for Agricultural Development

League of Arab States

World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit

Thank You شكرا