Climate Information for Adaptation and Risk Management within Local Communities

CCl-XV TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CHANGING CLIMATE AND DEMANDS FOR CLIMATE SERVICES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, Antalya, Turkey, 16-18 February, 2010

G SrinivasanRegional Integrated Multi-hazard warning System (RIMES)/ADPC

Kareff Rafisura, UNDP, Nepal

AR Subbiah, RIMES/ADPC

Content

• Adaptation and Management of climate risks

• End-to-end Systems to connect to local communities

• Assessment of user requirements – primacy of the user needs

• Examples

• Gaps

Climate Risk manifestations – what are we worried about?

i. Alteration of the mean state of climate

ii. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events

iii. Combination of i. and ii.

iv. Climate surprises (i.e. emergence of historically unexpected and sudden climate change-induced patterns)

Develop Capacities to Adapt to climate Change

Develop Capacities to Adapt to climate Change

Develop Capacities to Better Manage Climate/Disaster RisksDevelop Capacities to Better

Manage Climate/Disaster Risks

Develop Capacities to Manage

Risks Associated with Climate Variability & Change

Develop Capacities to Manage

Risks Associated with Climate Variability & Change

TIME HORIZONSTIME HORIZONS

Current Climate VariabilityCurrent Climate Variability Future

2030s 2050s 2070s

Future

2030s 2050s 2070s

CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Sectoral Impacts

Vulnerabilities

CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Sectoral Impacts

Vulnerabilities

Future Impacts

In the Context of CRM

Future Vulnerabilities

Future Impacts

In the Context of CRM

Future Vulnerabilities

Climate Information Services

Assimilate the Best Knowledge Available

Upgrade Operational Systems for Monitoring

and Forecasting relevant/customized to

local needs Create Appropriate Delivery Mechanism

Conceptual Steps in the End-to-End System for Communities

Monitoring and Generation of Early Warning

Customization and communication to sectoral agencies

Sector agencies translate into disaster scenario

Alert /warning messages issued to specific agencies in the field

Coordinated Community response to the alert or warning in terms of preparedness

Met Service

Monitoring

Early Warning Systems

Customization and dissemination protocols

How effectively forecasts are translated to disaster preparedness relevant information eg Flood Warnings

Involvement of grass root organizations in mobilization of community level response

Provincial Governmental actions etc.

Overall vulnerability reduction through development interventions

Poverty alleviation and sustainable development

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Total Hydrograph

Surface Response

Baseflow

Global, Regional Model Product

s

Regional

Products

Probabilistic location specific

hydro-met & geo

informationHazard

Derivatives

Risk Thresholds

ECMWF, NCEP, CMA, UKMO

RIMES/ADPC, Natl. DRR Agencies, Communities

Impact Outlooks

Risk Management tools

Managing climate risks by connecting science, institutions, and society

Climate Information Applications at Community Level

‐ The six step CFA methodology consists of:

• Assessment of user needs and existing capacities of national institutions to meet these needs (need/capacity assessments)

• Assessment of relevance of latest scientific information to meet these needs (assessment of available science/technology)

• Developing partnerships and enhancing capacities of natio nal institutions to generate climate information

• Institutional development to communicate information to end users ‐ ‐ (institutionalization of end to end system: pilot dem

onstrations, replication)

• ‐ Applying information to enable pro active decision making

• Monitoring and evaluation of applicability of information

Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB)

• Evolved long lead forecast- up to 10 days forecast models in collaboration with Georgia Tech University, USA

• Tested the models in 2004

• Operational on experimental basis since 2006

ADPC Project

Support - USAID

Partners - CARE, Bangladesh, Univ. of Colarado, Georgia Tech – Earth Atmospheric Sciences; BMD, Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)

Brahmaputra Discharge Forecasts 20071-10 day flood forecasts using ECMWF precipitation forecasts

Institutional Collaboration For Sustainable End-to-end Generation and Application of Flood Forecasts

BMD

Climate (rainfall and discharge) forecasting technology

(EAS)/ADPC

Agro met translation

FFWC Discharge translation

IWM

DMB, DAE

Interpretation

Communication

End users

ADPC, CARE ,CEGIS ADPC

ADPC, CARE,CEGIS ADPC

Climate forecast ADPC GCEGI

S //GECIS

G

Institutional and community responses on 2007 flood forecast

Flood forecast issued for two

boundary locations

Incorporated into customized local model

21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul

Communication to project partners

24 Jul

Communication to stakeholders and local DMC members

25 Jul

Communication to Disaster Emergency Group

26 Jul

Discussion of options with local communities, CBOs, local working group members, networks

30 Jul 2 Aug

Information to relief agencies about the extent of flooding

Local institutions prepared response and relief plans

Community in low lands reserved their food, drinking water, fodder requirements

Local Disaster Management Committee and Volunteers prepared for rescue

Aid agencies arranged logistics and begin dialogue with district administration

Relief distribution started in affected locations

Flood water exceeded danger level on 28th July

Low lying areas are flooded on 29th July

The Monsoon Forum process

Some examples of forecast provider & user forums in Asia

Philippines Inter-agency Committee on Rice and Corn (food security); Technical Working Group (water resources management); Climate Forum (non-targeted, various sectors); Local Climate Forum (provincial level)

Myanmar Monsoon Forum

Mongolia Winter/Spring Forum

Indonesia Climate Field School for Farmers (community-level) Science and Policy Forum (district-level policy making) National Monsoon Forum (starting October 2008)

East Timor October 2008

Monsoon Forum objectives

• Ensure that forecast products, including their uncertainties and limitations, are understood by and communicated to users on a regular basis

• Provide a platform for inter-agency coordination of policies and programs for dealing with potential impacts of climate-related hazards on seasonal basis

• Encourage climate forecast applications for mitigating risks in various climate-sensitive sectors;

• Provide a platform for long-term process of understanding risks posed by/opportunities brought about by past, current, and future climate

Output

• Preparedness plan for every season

• Short and medium term recommendations on how to improve inter-agency coordination and collaboration towards greater uptake of climate information for various purposes (e.g. disaster risk reduction, planning, etc.)

• Recommendations on how to better tailor climate information products to support decision making

• Long-term policy recommendations on how to better manage climate risks and adapt to climate change

Institutional mechanism: Indonesia example

Directorate of Plant Protection

IPB (Bogor Agril. Univ.)

Provision of climate outlook

BMKG (Met. Geophys. Agency)

Translation of climate outlook

into impact outlook

Indramayu Agriculture Office

Conversion of impact outlook

into crop management

strategies

Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of

farmers response

Forums for climate information providers and Users

National: Seasonal climate forum (national meteorological and

hydrological service (NMHS), intermediate users - e.g. agriculture and water resources ministries)

Inter- (user) agency committees (NMHS, agriculture and water resources ministries, water regulatory board, dam operators, water concessionaires, hydropower agency)

Sub-national: Provincial working group (provincial meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, universities, local government units, NGOs)

Local: Local climate forum (local meteorological and hydrological

station, agriculture and irrigation departments, local government unit, local NGOs, farmers’ groups)

Field schools (provincial and local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture extension, farmers)

Sample – typical example from farming sector

Critical climate risks are as follows:

• Wet season cropping (November/December‐March/April): Flooding in January/February is a major problem. The probability of flooding during this period is more than 50%.

• Farmers at the tail‐end of the irrigation system receive water only in December, while planting has to start in November. Otherwise, the paddy will not be tall enough to survive flooding in February.

• Dry season cropping (April/May‐August/September): Droughts in June to July is the major problem during this season. About 4,000 ha, or 60% of the total rice paddy area is vulnerable to drought.

• Tools built around down-scaled seasonal predictions are very useful

Forecast Applications – Timor-Leste• Program focused on Maubara sub‐district in Liquica District, which is

located on the north coast. • Climate Field Schools conducted

Climate Risk Management Project: Current variability and future change

• Sparse networks and discontinuity in climate observations

• Data rescue efforts required

• Capacities for data analysis

• Validation and careful interpretation of regional model results

• User interfaces with sector agencies

Research Institutions, Universities

Research output

Operational Forecast Institutions

GAPS

Societal Risks

Forecast products

GAPS

Addressing Key Gaps

1

2Addressed through CFAB type technology

Flexible mechanisms and enabling mechanisms for customized solutions

Building Institutional Partnerships & Capacities to evolve solutions

Flexible mechanisms and enabling mechanisms for customized solutions

Building Institutional Partnerships & Capacities to evolve solutions

……thank youthank you