Climate Research in Malta An Overview of

ActivitiesDr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert

Bonnici Department of Physics

Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4th November 2010

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Overview

• Timeline• The Models• Capacity Building• Models’

Performance

• Recent Work• MedCLIVAR

Workshop • Current Projects• 1st Climate

Summer School• MCT plans

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Timeline

2007

PRECIS

license

MedCLIVAR

Workshop 1

PRECIS 1.8.2

update

PRECIS 1.9.1

update

1st Climate Summer School

2 undergraduate; 1 MSc student

RegCM4

testing

WRF installation

MedCLIVAR

Workshop 2

PRECIS Workshop

PRECIS 1.7.1

installation & testing

2008

2009

2010

RegCM4 Worksho

p

PRECIS 1.7.1 operational;

3 undergraduate students

PRECIS Sulfate Researc

h

MCT

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Introduction to the Models

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PRECIS

PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the:

o UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA),

o UK Department for International Development (DFID), o UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)o United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and o the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)

Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies

• PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system.

• To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions.

• The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries.

• These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies.

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PRECIS

PRECIS

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RegCM4

RegCM4• Community-based

• BATS & CLM LSMs

• Different Schemes

o Planetary Boundary Layer

o Radiation

o Precipitation

o Chemistry model (Dust, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, Black Carbon)

o Clouds

o Ocean Flux

o Pressure Gradient Force

• Lake model

PRECIS• License-based• MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs • Different Schemes

o Planetary Boundary Layero Radiationo Precipitationo Chemistry model (Sulfate)

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RegCM4Malta in Climate Models

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WRFNumerical Weather Prediction Model called Weather Research and

Forecasting (WRF) • Is a next-generation mesoscale model designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs.

• It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-D variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system.

• A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility.

• WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales going down to 1 km.

• Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology.

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WRF

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WRF

[Source: National Observatory of Athens]

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WRF

• Collaborative researcho University of Aveiro & University of Lisbon

• BSc (Hons) 3rd year projectso Examples:

• Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005

• Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean

• Attraction between Cities and Cyclones

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Capacity Building

Workstations

2 Proc.

4 Proc.

ALBERT

768 Proc.• PRECIS on 2 nodes

(Limited to 12 Proc. per simulation)

• RegCM4 (runs on MPI)• WRF installed & in

testing

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Models’ PerformanceConsidering a 30 year simulation,

Europe, 50 km: 100x100 cells

• PRECISo Computer 4 (2P): ~39 dayso Computer 2 (4P): ~16 days o Computer Cluster (12P): ~11 days

• RegCM4 o Computer Cluster: ~8 days

• WRF: in testing phase

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Recent WorkPRECIS• Undergraduate Projects 2009/10

o Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and surrounding) region from different perspectives.• Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli)

• Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia)

• Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`)

• Current Researcho Evaluation of the Chemistry model (Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`)

• Undergraduate Projects 2010/11o Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri)

o Comparative study of PRECIS’s LSMs (William Healey)

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Undergraduate Projects 2009/10

Why the Mediterranean Basin?• Enclosed by 3 major continents.• Surrounded almost entirely by

mountains. • Very unique and sensitive to climate

changes.

Simulation details• GCM-HadAM3P• PRECIS (v 1.7.1) used• 1960-1990 • Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)• 100 x 100 cells• 57°N-18°N • 16°W-46°E

Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Mediterranean CLImate VARiability project) that coordinates andpromotes the study of the Mediterranean climate

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PRECIS: ValidationValidation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model

Comparison of Measured and Modelled data

ESRL

Solar Radiation at Surface Level

1960-1990 Average

PRECIS

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PRECIS: ValidationValidation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model

Comparison of Measured and Modelled data

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PRECIS: Vertical Layers

Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the atmosphere against Radiosonde data

Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)

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PRECIS: Climate Zones

Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within different climate zones

PRECIS

MONITORING STATIONS

1960-1990 Average

Temperature Total Precipitation Rate

Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

Future Projections

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Temperature IS INCREASING

Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

Future Projections

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Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASINGIs this natural variability or climate change? – MORE

RESEARCHSource: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

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PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol

Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosols in the Atmosphere

1960-1990 Average

Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)

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PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol

Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosol in the Atmosphere

1960-1990 Average

Parameter Max Bias Mean Bias Min BiasSurface Temperature 1.59 0.82 0.05Solar Radiation -6.99 -10.45 -15.63Thermal Radiation 3.77 1.01 -1.37Daily Temperature Range -0.32 -1.98 -3.52Convective Precipitation -1.48 -3.08 -5.80Relative Humidity -3.01 -5.46 -8.38

Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)

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ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop

23rd-25th September 2010 ICTP, Trieste

Workshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of

Aerosols.

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PRECIS: Current Research

Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). “Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere”. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change.

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Undergraduate Projects 2010/11

Why Australia?• Large variety of different climates• Complex island system in the ITCZ

Simulation details:• GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5• PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used• 1960-1990/ 1990-2020• Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km)• 174 x 150 cells• 22°N-49°S• 83°E-166°E

Scope: Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO (Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization) and comparing results with their model, CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model)

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LSM Project

1960-1990 Sulfate Aitken modePRECIS 1.7.1

MOSES IPRECIS 1.9.1MOSES 2.2

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ENSO Project

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MSc using RegCM4Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns

around Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation.

Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

NAO+

NAO-

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Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

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Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

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1st Climate Summer School

• 8 Students attended

• Day 1: Introduction to Meteorology I

• Day 2: Introduction to Meteorology II

• Day 3: Data Mining; Post Processing Software installation

• Day 4: Using Panoply data viewer; Introduction to PRECIS

• Day 5: The PRECIS outputs• Day 6: Introduction to NCL

• 2nd Climate Summer School o New Models (RegCM4, WRF)o Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV)o Mini-Project

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Immediate Plans

• Gain more experienceo Climate Research, Different Models, Climate Statistics

• Encourage more people to work in the MCT o Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and

Statisticians.o There is a lot of data available to be analysed –

summer research experiences are available

• Prepare interested students through new study-units.

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New Study-Units

A Multidisciplinary approach to Climate

Research

Study Aims• Scientific understanding of

climate• Operating climate models• Post-processing• Using appropriate

Statistical methods• Hands-on experience to

climate research

Fundamentals of Meteorology

Study Aims• Scientific understanding of

meteorology• Physics of weather

systems• Distinguishing and

identifying weather systems from climate data

• Applying meteorology to climate research

Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12

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Long-Term Plans• Collaborative and MSc / PhD / post-doc research

o Development of part of the chemical model with ICTP

o Needed:

• Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, Programmers

• Associated projects

o Studying long range transport of pollutants

o Evaluate different schemes

o Apply different statistical treatments to climate data

o Testing out new code

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International Collaborations

Sponsored by:• International Council for Science (ICSU)• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)• Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO

The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine:• the predictability of climate• the effect of human activities on climate

These underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC. 

A multi-disciplinary approach:• Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projects• Facilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be

addressed by any one nation or single scientific discipline

The 2005-2015 WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable global climate observations and models

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CORDEX

CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework. • To produce an improved generation of regional climate change

projections world-wide• To use results for input into impact and adaptation studies

within the AR5 timeline and beyond

MED-CORDEX will make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and regional coupled systems. • Developing new experiments to test new components and

improved schemes, based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations)

CORDEX WRF-Community:This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments.

COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment

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CORDEX

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The MCT on the Web

UoM-Physics Webpage:

http://www.um.edu.mt/science/p

hysics/climate_studies

Facebook:

http

://www.facebook.com/group.php

?gid=155998907759229

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Acknowledgements

Charles V SammutLouis Zammit MangionPierre-Sandre Farrugia

Denis CutajarAdam Gauci

Alessio MagroShawn Cassar

http://um.edu.mt/science/physics

Graziano GiulianiStefano Cozzini

http://portal.ictp.it/esp/research/esp-models/regcm3

Mary HaileyDennis Shea

http://ncar.ucar.edu/

Simon TuckerChloe MorrellDavid Hein

David Hassellhttp://precis.metoffice.com/

Nick Archer

Marcus ThatcherJack Katzfey

John McGregorhttp://cmar.csiro.au

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Thank You

MALTA CLIMATE TEAMW: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/research/climate_studies

E: climate-physics.sci@um.edu.mtT: +356 2340 3036