climatic risc zoning-agriculture public policy what, where and whem to plant – 5565 municipalities...
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CLIMATIC RISC ZONING-AGRICULTUREPUBLIC POLICY
WHAT, WHERE AND WHEM TO PLANT – 5565 MUNICIPALITIES
I.) 1996 – INTRODUCTION OF THE CLIMATIC RISK ZONING
II.) 2012 - MAPA – 115,2 Bilhões de Reais
III.) GLOBAL WARMING AND AGRICULTURE SCENARIOS
• 2008. GOF/BRITISH EMBASSY • New Geography of Brazilian Agriculture
• 9 CULTURES AND 1 PASTURE/CATTLE RAISING
• 2012. WORLD BANK. 23 GCMs and 3 RCMs.• 7 CULTURES and PASTURE
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Bonan, 2008PREVISÃO: TEMPO-CLIMA
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IntroduçãoProcesso de Zoneamento Agrícola
BIPZON
Chuva
Temperatura
Radiação Solar
KC
ISNADecendial
BIPZON InterpolaçãoClassificação
e geraçãode mapas
GradeInterpolada
Executado 1000s de vezes(Uma vez para cada estação
meteorológica)
Executado 10s de vezes(Uma vez para cada
decêndio)
Shapefile
Mapas
Executado 10s de vezes(Uma vez para cada
decêndio)
Tempo de Processamento:- Antes (processamento sequencial – 1 máquina): horas- Depois (processamento distribuído – 20 máquinas): ~10 minutos - Incluindo novos produtos
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Model(s)Input Data Simulation & Analysis
Modeling/Simulation Process
Climate Information:
P, T, Water Def. Planting Date Definition based on:
Integration indexes WRSI = ETR/ETM
(Water Requirement Satisfaction Index)
Rain excess probability on harvest
Water Deficit
High Temperatures
Low Temperatures
Climate Information:
P, T, Water Def.
Agrometorological Crop Database:• Cycle and phenological phases• Culture Coef. (Kc)• Phenological critical phase• Soil Water Retention• Root Zone• Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption
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ANALISES EFETUADAS - MAPAS E LISTAGEM DE MUNICIPIOSNova Geografia da Agricultura Brasileira
CULTURAS: 9(Arroz, Feijão, Soja, Milho, Mandioca, Girassol, Cana, Café, Algodão)
(Pastagem e Gado de Corte)
MODELOS: PRECIS A2 – PRECIS B2ANOS: Atual, 2010, 2020, 2050, 2070
AGUA SOLO (mm): 30, 50, 70CICLOS: 2
DECÊNDIOS: 36
TOTAL: 9cult x 9cen = 81 mapas finais81 x 36dec = 2.916mapas
Mapas primarios = 2.916 x 2cicl x 3cad = 14.580Testes modelos = 5
72.900 mapas gerados no processo
Total de simulações = 396Tempo Processamento – Cerca de 20 horas/cada
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SCenAgri – Simulação de Cenários Agrícolas Futuros
Computadores Dedicados
Computadores Não-Dedicados
Servidor Web(SCenAgri)
Grade Computacional25 comps -> 120
HDFSHDFS
Base deDados
Interface Web
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Modelos climáticos usados nas avaliações do IPCC:
GCMs: FAR (1990), SAR (1996), TAR (2001) e AR4 (2007). 212 pixels
RCMs:PRECIS, BRAMS, ETA. Pixel 50 x 50 Km. 6.000 pixels.A complexidade dos modelos vem aumentando e os cenários são mais consistentes e aderentes ao clima atual.
Novos modelos: 5 x 5 Km“Microclima”: 100 x 100 m
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Metodologia
Grande variabilidade dos dados gerados pelos modelos
» Aplicação Média Móvel e Delta de T°
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SoybeanBase Year
2010OPTIMISTIC
RegionPlanted Area
2009 (ha)2020 ∆ (%) 2030 ∆ (%)
South 8.285.716 6.195.738 -25,2 5.826.299 -29,7
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Arábica Coffee
Actual Risk Zoning
Irrigation Necessary
Low Climatic Risk
Irrigation Recommended
Frost Risk
High Temperature Risk
High Climatic Risk
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Irrigation Necessary
Low Climatic Risk
Irrigation Recommended
Frost Risk
High Temperature Risk
High Climatic Risk
Arabica Coffee
Scenary A2 - Year- 2050
17,15%
Prejuízo em bilhões
Área de baixo risco
R$ 1,6
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Os números indicam observações recebidas - por dia -em um centro de
previsão de tempo
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TABELA FINAL
Precis A2 Precis B2
Município Cultura Atual 2020 2050 2070 2020 2050 2070
Abadia de Goiás-GO Milho X X X X X X X
Cana X X X X X X
Girassol X X X X X X X
Arroz X X X X X X X
Algodão X X X X X X X
Feijão X X X X X X X
Soja X X X X X X X
Café
Abadia dos Dourados-MG Milho X X X X X X X
Cana
Girassol X X X X X X X
Arroz X X X X X X X
Algodão X X X X X X X
Feijão X X X X X X X
Soja X X X
Café
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CROPPotencial
Area2010
(Km2)
Potencial Area
Model Precis A2 - 2020
(Km2)
% Variation related to
actual area
Potencial Area
Model Precis A2 - 2050
(Km2)
% Variation related to
actual area
Potencial Area
Model Precis A2 - 2070
(Km2)
% Variation related to
actual area
COTTON 4.029.507 3.583.461 -11,07 3.449.349 -14,40 3.380.202 -16,12
RICE 4.168.806 3.764.488 -09,70 3.655.029 -12,32 3.577.169 -14,19
COFFEE 395.976 358.446 -9,48 328.071 -17,15 265.243 -33,01
SUGARCANE 619.422 1.608.994 159,76 1.477.816 138,58 1.351.441 118,18
BEAN 4.137.837 3.957.481 -04,36 3.715.178 -10,21 3.587.559 -13,30
SUNFLOWER 4.440.650 3.811.838 -14,16 3.709.223 -16,47 3.633.928 -18,17
CASSAVA 5.169.795 5.006.777 -03,16 5.886.398 13,48 6.268.634 21,26
CORN 4.381.791 3.856.839 -11,98 3.716.684 -15,18 3.624.487 -17,28
SOYBEAN 2.790.265 2.132.001 -23,59 1.837.447 -34,15 1.635.239 -41,39
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Metodologia
Método proposto por Gleik (1986)» Cálculo da variação de temperatura de modelos climáticos
» Temperatura Simulada = Equação Regional de Temperatura + ∆
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“Em momentos de crise, só a imaginação é mais importante que o conhecimento” - Einstein
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Metodologia
» Comportamento dos modelos com mesma tendência
» CENÁRIOS PESSIMISTA E OTIMISTA
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Simulador de Cenários Agrícolas
» Aplicação da metodologia de zoneamento de risco climático;
» Sistema computacional de alto desempenho;
» Embrapa Informática Agropecuária;
» Interface WEB
» Base: BIPZON
» Modelo de Balanço Hídrico Sequencial (Simulação - 10 dias)
» ISNA – Fase mais sensível
ScenAgri
GRID
» 120 computadores
» 100.000 simulações
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Simulações dos Cenários Agrícolas
7 Culturas» Milho 1°Safra e 2° Safra
» Algodão
» Arroz
» Soja
» Feijão 1°Safra e 2°Safra
» Cana-de-açúcar
» Trigo
Cenários Pessimista e Otimista
Modelo BRAMS (com e sem precipitação simulada)
2010, 2020 e 2030
5 Regiões
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SoybeanBase Year
2010PESSIMISTIC
RegionPlanted Area
2009 (ha)2020 ∆ (%) 2030 ∆ (%)
South 8.285.716 4.626.311 -44,2 4.271.544 -48,4
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2020 Cenário (%)
Otimista Pessimista
Soja -13,0 -24,0Modelo PRECIS (Assad & Pinto, 2008) -21,62 -23,59
Resultados - SOJA
» Comparação de Resultados - 2020
Deste trabalho X Modelo PRECIS
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Continuidade dos Trabalhos
Adaptação
» Biotecnologia
» Cultivares resistentes à seca
Mitigação
» Práticas de manejo do solo
» Calcário/Gesso
» Plantio Direto
Redução dos efeitos das mudanças climáticasDuas Linhas:
Novas Simulações
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Um modelo climático é
• um software ou código para computador contendo dezenas a centenas de milhares de linhas codificadas usado para processar dados e gerar previsões sobre a evolução do clima da Terra em função da evolução dos GEE.
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Water balance
Determination of Evapotranspiration
Potential (ETP)
Average temperature (month and years) 2010,2020,2030
Determination of phenological phases
Sowing date
Soil type
Climatic Risks by municipality
Meteorological stations
Average monthly
temperature
Kc indexDuration of phenological phases
Rain daily data
Final ZONING
Crop Water Stress Index
ETP
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Metodologia
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1 dia
10 dias
100 dias1000 dias
A cadeia de processos que define o clima
Concentração de gases de efeito estufa
Energia Solar
Teleconexões do clima terreste
Interações oceano-terra- atmosfera
Interações com geleiras
Interações biogeoquímicas
Impactos climáticos
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ATMOSFERA (semanas-meses)
Camada Limite Atmosférica (dias)
Camada de Mistura (meses)
Gelo Oceânico (meses, décadas)
Sol
Oceano profundo(100-1000 anos)
OCEANOS
Neve (dias)
Geleira (10-100 anos)
Camadas de gelo
(10 k anos)
Lagos, litosfera, biosfera (meses, décadas)
CONTINENTES
Tectônica – fluxo térmico da terra/forçante antropogênica
Sis
tem
a C
limát
ico