cmo structuring and trading: 212-834-4477 sam choi ...daudley/448/jhuonly/jpm agency cmos...
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A G E N C Y C O L L A T E R A L I Z E D M O R T G A G E O B L I G A T I O N S
CMO Structuring and Trading: 212-834-4477
Sam Choi: Derivatives Trading
Adi Rabinowitz: Fixed Rate Trading
Xiangyang Wu: Structuring
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C M O S
Copyright 2007 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan is the marketing name for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., and its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. is a member of NYSE and SIPC. JPMorgan Chase Bank is a member of FDIC. J.P. Morgan Futures Inc., is a member of the NFA. J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. and J.P. Morgan plc are authorized by the FSA and members of the LSE. J.P. Morgan Europe Limited is authorized by the FSA. J.P. Morgan Equities Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities & Futures Commission in Hong Kong and its CE number is AAJ321 J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited is a member of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore ("MAS"). J.P. Morgan Securities Asia Private Limited is regulated by the MAS and the Financial Services Agency in Japan. J.P.Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011) is a licensed securities dealer.
Additional information is available upon request. Information herein is believed to be reliable but JPMorgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The investments and strategies discussed here may not be suitable for all investors; if you have any doubts you should consult your investment advisor. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. JPMorgan and/or its affiliates and employees may hold a position, may undertake or have already undertaken an own account transaction or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or any related financial instruments, or act as underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer. Clients should contact analysts at and execute transactions through a JPMorgan entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. This report should not be distributed to others or replicated in any form without prior consent of JP Morgan. This report has been issued, in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other European Economic Area countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction.
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Table of ContentsI. Introduction to MBS and CMO Market
II. CMO Principal Types
III. CMO Interest Types
IV. Recent Innovations in the CMO Market
V. Conclusion
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MBS as a % of Fixed Income Market
Municipal
9%
Mortgage
Related
24%
Fed Agencies
10%
Money
Market
14%
Asset-
backed
8%
Corporate
19%
U.S.
Treasury
16%
Source: The Bond Market Association (as of September 2006)
Fixed income market compositionFixed income market composition
Total = $26.7 trillion
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Mortgage – Related Security Holdings by Investor2002-2006
(Dollars in Billions)
Mortgage – Related Security Holdings by Investor2002-2006
(Dollars in Billions)
Notes: Mortgage-related securities, or MRSs, include all securities or debt obligations collateralized by either residential mortgages or MBSs. Estimatesfrom Inside MBS & ABS based on available Federal Reserve Board data.* Other investors include hedge funds, nonprofits, state and local government, and other groups where MRS data is not available.
Source: Inside MBS & ABS
Who Buys MBS?A
GE
NC
YC
OL
LA
TE
RA
LI
ZE
DM
OR
TG
AG
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BL
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3
Investor Type 2002 2003 2004 2005 Midyear 2006 Change 05/06 Mkt ShareFannie Mae/Freddie Mac $1,109 $1,233 $1,261 $1,123 $1,150 2% 21%FDIC Commercial Banks $702 $776 $876 $897 $970 8% 18%Foreign Investors $235 $285 $490 $802 $850 6% 16%Mutual Funds $375 $387 $375 $405 $400 -1% 7%Personal Sector $120 $200 $235 $355 $360 1% 7%Life Insurance $235 $240 $265 $285 $300 5% 6%All Thrifts $210 $207 $234 $243 $243 0% 5%State/Local Governments $130 $165 $180 $225 $245 9% 5%Public Pension Funds $95 $120 $152 $180 $190 6% 4%Private Pension Funds $90 $105 $115 $160 $175 9% 3%FHLBanks $96 $98 $113 $122 $128 5% 2%REITs $13 $29 $79 $107 $112 4% 2%Property/Casualty Insurers $60 $55 $65 $90 $95 6% 2%Securities Brokers and Dealers $40 $35 $50 $95 $115 21% 2%Federal Credit Unions $25 $29 $28 $55 $71 29% 1%Subtotal $3,536 $3,962 $4,518 $5,144 $5,403 5% 99%Other Investors $40 $42 -- $45 $48 1%Total Outstandings $3,576 $4,003 $4,475 $5,189 $5,451 5.0% 100%
C M O S
FNMA Current Coupon Yield vs. UST 10 Year Yield
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3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
M ar/04 Jun/04 Sep/04 Dec/04 M ar/05 Jun/05 Sep/05 Dec/05 M ar/06 Jun/06 Sep/06 Dec/06
Yiel
d (%
)
Current Coupon 10-years
Source: JPMorgan
C M O S
Why Agency CMOs?
To broaden the investor base by customizing cash flows for investor needs while providing key advantages over other instruments:
Excess Returns
Greater Liquidity
Virtually Zero Credit Risk
Can address the following specific needs of investors:
Enhanced Yields/Spreads
Targeted Average Life Profiles
Targeted Duration Profiles
Customize the risk/reward profiles for investor’s views on:interest ratesyield curve shapeprepaymentsvolatility
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CMOs as % of the Fixed Rate MBS Market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
CMO
Issu
ance
($
Billi
ons)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% o
f Fi
xed-
Rate
Pas
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roug
h Is
suan
ce
CMO Issuance % of Pass-Through
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CMO Principal Types
SEQ – Sequential
PAC – Planned Amortization Class
TAC – Targeted Amortization Class
AD or VADM- Accretion-Directed/Very Accurately Defined Maturity
FFIEC Bonds
SUP - Support or Companion
Z - Accrual bond
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SEQs - Sequentials
Collateral principal payments are reallocated sequentially into a series of short, intermediate and long maturity bonds
Sensitive to prepayments:
Prepayments faster than expected: SEQs shorten
Prepayments slower than expected: SEQs extend
The shorter average life sequentials (that pay before the longer SEQs within the structure) provide prepayment protection for the longer average life SEQs
Shorter principal window than collateral
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SEQ Yield Tables
Front SEQ
Last Cashflow (LCF) SEQ
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PACs - Planned Amortization Class
Principal repaid according to a schedule within a specified range of prepayment assumptions called PAC bands
Principal schedule provides protection from average life volatility and reinvestment risk associated with prepayments
Principal schedules are maintained by redirecting cashflow uncertainty to Support bonds
Average Life is less volatile with speeds outside the bands because the supports continue to provide stability
Corporate bond and agency bond surrogate
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PAC Yield Tables and Cashflow Graph
Yield table
Cashflow Graph
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TACs - Targeted Amortization Class
Structured to pay principal according to a schedule determined by one constant prepayment speed - a “one sided” PAC
No protection against extension: TACs only have call protection because a TAC provides protection against faster but not slower prepayments
Prepayments faster than TAC speed: Excess principal to supports
Prepayments slower than TAC speed: TAC and Support extend
Offer higher yield than PACs based on increased extension risk
More call protection than a SEQ
Yield Table
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AD/VADMs - Accretion Directed / Very Accurately Defined Maturity
All cashflows are derived from the interest accretions of the Z bond
VADM tranches must mature prior to the start of the amortization on their corresponding Z because when the Z becomes current pay the Z accretion is no longer available to amortize the VADMs
Very stable bond since cashflow is from interest accretion which is NOT affected by prepayments
VADMs do not extend even under a zero prepayment scenario
No whipsaw risk
Pay up for the extension protection results in lower yields and better convexity
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VADM Yield Table and Cashflow Graph
VADM yield table in SEQ Z structure
WAL Graph
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FFIEC Bonds
Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) derived guidelines to determine if MBS investments are suitable for US depository institutions
Bonds that meet these guidelines have a wider audience, are moreliquid, and trade at tighter spreads than comparable non-FFIEC average life bonds
FFIEC test:
Test 1) WAL must be less than 10 years
Test 2) +300 shift less than 4 years extension
-300 shift less than 6 years contraction
Test 3) +300 shift less than 17% price change
-300 shift less than 17% price change
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SUPs - Supports or Companions
Supports are cashflow shock absorbers for PACs
Faster prepayments - excess cash flow paid to supports providing call protection for PACs
Slower prepayments - any shortfall in cash flow is absorbed by supports which may not receive principal until PAC schedule is met, providing extension protection for PACs
High average life and cashflow volatility
Higher yields compensate for volatility
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Support Yield Table and Weighted Average Life
Weighted Average Life Graph
Sequentially Tranched Support
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Z bonds - Accrual Bonds
No interest until principal payment window starts
Interest due is added to outstanding principal of the bond = Z accretion
Z accretion accelerates the maturity of shorter tranches or moreaccurately defines the maturity of others (VADMs)
Receive principal payments and interest once other bonds are retired
Addition of Z bond to a structure can improve the convexity of the other bonds by reducing extension risk
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Sequential Z Bond Yield Table & Cash Flow Graph
Cash Flow Graph
Yield Table
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Support Z Bond Yield Table & Cash Flow Graph
Cash Flow Graph
Yield Table
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Rocket Z Yield Table & Cash Flow Graph
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Type of support Z that has a possibility of paying off very fast (“rocket”).
Yield Table
Weighted Average
Life Graph
C M O S
CMO Interest Types
Floater
Inverse Floater
IO - Interest Only (Trust and Structured)
PO - Principal Only (Trust and Structured)
Inverse IO
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Floaters
Coupons reset periodically, usually monthly, at a rate of an index, usually 1mLibor, plus a spread, know as the margin
Created with an inverse or inverse IO such that the weighted-average coupon of the pair is always equal to the underlying fixed-rate bond
Shorter and less negatively convex than underlying fixed rate
Offers protection against interest rate risk up to the cap
The cap adds some duration and negative convexity. Without a cap the duration would be negligible and convexity neutral
Shorter durations= less price volatility than fixed-rate CMOs unless rates rise and the coupon reaches its cap
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Floater Yield Table & Coupon Graph
Yield Table
Coupon Graph
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Support Floater Yield Table & Coupon Graph
Yield Table
Coupon Graph
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Inverse Floaters
Pays down simultaneously with their corresponding floater
Coupon falls when the index rate rises and are typically leveredpositions in the underlying fixed rate cash flow
High yields frequently compensate for the increased risks
Floored inverses: a “baby” inverse floater - coupon moves inversely but can never drop below a designated fixed coupon
Provide a way to leverage MBS if you are bullish on the MBS sector
Provide a way to leverage views in one package if you disagree with
forward rate curve
FED expectations
prepayment forecasts
volatility views
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Inverse Yield Table & Coupon Graph
Yield Table
Coupon Graph
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Floored Inverse Yield Table & Coupon Graph
Yield Table
Coupon Graph
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IO - Interest Only
Receive only interest cash flow from the notional amount of the underlying bond
Since IOs do not pay principal, cashflows exist only if principal remains outstanding
The amount of cash flows received is highly dependent upon the amortization and prepayments of the underlying class
Benefit from slowing prepaymentsFaster prepayments reduce the notional balance more rapidly leading to smaller interest payments
Bearish security that usually have negative durations
Interest stripped from designated pools of collateral are known as STRIPS and are traded in liquid broker markets
Interest stripped from CMOs are known as Structured IO and can be customized for investor needs on:
lockout
PAC bands
underlying collateral STIPs
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IO Yield Tables
Structured PAC IO
Trust IO
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PO - Principal Only
Stream of principal payments purchased at a discount
Hedge for prepayment risk since POs benefit from faster prepayments:Principal is returned at par at a faster rate
Lower discount rates boost the price
The amount of cash flows received is highly dependent upon the amortization and prepayments of the underlying class
Bullish security with large, positive duration and positive convexity
Super PO’s provide a more levered prepay bet
Principal stripped from designated pools of collateral are known as STRIPS and are traded in liquid broker markets
Principal stripped from CMOs are known as Structured PO and can be customized for investor needs on:
lockout
PAC bands
underlying collateral STIPs
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PO Yield Tables
Structured SUP PO
Trust PO
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IO/PO Reports
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Trust IO/PO reports from JPMorgan provide daily price data:
C M O S
Inverse IO
Pays down simultaneously with their corresponding floater like an inverse except the Inverse IO does not pay principal
Coupon falls when the index rate rises and are typically leveredpositions in the underlying fixed rate cash flow
Faster prepayments reduce the notional balance more rapidly leading to smaller interest payments
Provide a way to leverage views in one package if you disagree with
forward rate curve
FED expectations
prepayment forecasts
volatility views
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Inverse IO Yield Table and Coupon Graph
Yield Table
Coupon Graph
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Recent Innovations in CMO Market
AS/NAS – Accelerated Security/Non-accelerated Security
TTIB – Two Tiered Index Bonds
Super-Floater
Customized Floater: FHR 3069 CF
RELO – Relocation collateral deals
Pre-pay Linked Notes/Interest Accrual Notes (IANs)
Freddie Mac Reference Notes
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AS and NAS - Accelerated and Non-Accelerated Securities
AS security receives principal payments more quickly than its respective collateral.
NAS Security receives principal more slowly than its respective collateral
NAS + AS = SEQ
The AS bond receives the “accelerated” principal payments that would have otherwise been allocated to the NAS bonds
The NAS bond is locked out until the AS bond is paid off; then the NAS begins receiving its pro-rata principal payments
NAS is better than a PAC = no whipsaw risk
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AS and NAS Yield Tables
AS
NASnote the average life of 5.30 at 0 PSA
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TTIB - Two Tiered Index Bond
A type of inverse floater that pays a fixed rate as long as 1m Libor stays below a certain threshold
Once 1m Libor crosses the threshold the coupon declines on a levered basis within a corridor of rates until it reaches 0%
Essentially shorting an option that 1m Libor will not increase beyond a certain threshold
Compensating for shorting the option by getting a higher coupon.
Digital TTIBs: Once 1m Libor crosses the threshold the coupon declines immediately to 0%
Floored TTIB: Once 1m Libor crosses the threshold the coupon declines immediately to a fixed rate floor
Historical 1m Libor graph
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TTIB Yield Tables and Coupon GraphsDigital TTIB yield table
1 bp Corridor TTIB yield table
Digital TTIB coupon graph
1 bp Corridor TTIB coupon graph
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TTIBs with additional features
Locked-out Digital TTIB yield table Locked-out Digital TTIB coupon graph
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TTIBs with lock-out: coupon rate is not conditional on 1m Libor for an initial period, ensuring desirable rates over that period.
Initial reset date can be several years into bond’s lifetime.
C M O S
TTIBs with additional features (cont.)
Example: FHR 3140 CF- Is a regular L + 165 bp bond
for first 7 years, beforeconverting into a regularfloating-rate TTIB.
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Floating-rate TTIBs: when 1m Libor is below a threshold, bond pays as a floater.
Floating-rate TTIBs with lock-out: bond maintains its initial coupon formula for an initial period, regardless of 1m Libor.
C M O S
Super-Floater
A type of floater that pays a fixed rate as long as 1m Libor stays above a certain threshold (usually greater than current levels).
Essentially shorting an option that 1m Libor will remain below a certain threshold.
Compensated for shorting the option by receiving a VERY high coupon should 1m Libor go above the threshold.
Example: FHR 3111 HF (receives 66% coupon if 1m Libor > 6.5%)
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Coupon Graph
C M O S
Customized Floater: FHR 3069 CF
Classified on Bloomberg as “Complex” because the formula for calculating the payment is not the standard Libor + discount margin
Unique structure
Payment Formula:If Libor is less than 4.8%, bond pays Libor + 2.35%If Libor is greater than 4.8% but less than 7.15%, bond pays 7.15%If Libor is greater than 7.15%, bond pays 0%
Coupon Graph
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RELO – CMO Backed by Relocation Mortgages
Relocation Mortgage: a mortgage made to a transferred employee to finance a home purchase at a new job location
Mortgage usually requires an employer to contribute to mortgage funding
Mortgage typically originated by an agreement between the employer and the lender under a relocation program administered by the employer or its agent
Prepayment speeds depends on typical prepayment behaviors and other RELO factors:
Whether the mortgages are made in connection with a permanent relocation of a corporate headquarters
The likelihood that borrowers will be relocated again
The frequency with which further relocations may occur
Historically this sector has fast prepay speeds
CMOs backed by RELO collateral usually trade at a deep discount
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RELO Yield Table and Weighted Average Life Graph
Yield Table
Weighted Average Life graph
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Prepay Linked Notes or Interest Accrual Notes (IANs)
Agency debt and MBS hybrid
Redemption schedule is based on a pre-selected reference pool
Like MBS (unlike agency debt) there is no explicit call date
Like agency debt (unlike MBS) there is a stated final maturity
Effective duration management tool for those who like MBS sector
Yield TableRecently-priced deals
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Freddie Reference NotesA Pre-pay linked note that trades live on Trade Web; an automated broker
Availability by all dealers on Trade Web meansBetter liquidity andBetter price transparency than pre-pay linked notes that do not trade live on Trade Web
Trades at slightly lower yields than other pre-pay linked notes due to the advantage of greater liquidity and greater price transparency
Trade Web Screen Offering:Yield Table
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Conclusion
As a premier investment bank, strives to be a leader in the CMO market
The CMO team’s recent production is growing rapidly:In April & May 2006, the #1 FNMA issuer!
The #3 overall conventional issuer (FNMA + FHLMC) over same period.
Over $5 billion in deal volume in those two months alone!
The CMO team can provide the following client needs:Unique trade ideas through structuring capabilities
Relative value analysis
Marked-to-market valuations & portfolio analysis
Liquidity through market making
Let the CMO team help you maximize the total return of your portfolio!
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