collective visioning for groundwater futures through
TRANSCRIPT
Collective Visioning for Groundwater Futures through Participatory Modelling
Devnadi River Basin
Partners investigating the source of the Devnadi at Sinnar, June 2019 ©Shuchi Vora
Shuchi Vora
Global Resilience Partnership
Unpacking “Drought Risks”
Fragile Social-Ecological Systems
Degrading Ecosystems
Inequity
Uncertain Rainfall
INCREASED DROUGHT RISK IN SOUTH
ASIA DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
1/3rddistricts faced more than
4 droughts between 2006 and 2016
57% increase in Drought Prone Areas since 1997
70% of India classified as semi-arid, arid or dry sub-humid – Dryland ecosystems
Po
pu
lati
on
dep
end
ent
on
agr
icu
ltu
re (
mill
ion
s) (
Log
scal
e)
167 Ha
63 Ha
1.4 Ha
USA India Brazil
2
600
31
SMALL LANDHOLDING, LARGE
DEPENDENT POPULATIONS
THE GROUNDWATER PARADOX OF
INDIA:
“REDUCING INDIVIDUAL ACCESS –
INCREASING DEPENDENCE –
DEPLETING RESOURCE”
©Shuchi Vora
Drought Mitigation and Externalities
Source: Vora, Negandhi and Mandal (2020)
INDIA IS THE LARGEST GROUNDWATER USER IN THE WORLD
AGRICULTURE WITHDRAWALS ARE THE HIGHEST AT 88% (IDFC Foundation, 2013)
60% OF THE DISTRICTS IN INDIA SHOWING EVIDENCE OF EITHER DEPLETION AND/OR CONTAMINATION (Kulkarni et al, 2015)
Source: Shah et al (2007)
Collective Action
HOW DO WE SHIFT THE STATUS QUO?
Building Adaptive CapacitiesImproved decision-
makingIntegrated Solutions
Source: Vora, Negandhi and Mandal (2020)
THE DEVNADI RIVER BASIN
• 70 km long river
• Forms the source waters of the Godavari, a 1500 km long iconic river of India (also called the Ganga of the South)
• Spring-fed river
COLLECTIVE VISIONING IN THE DEVNADI BASIN
MENTAL MODELS: AGRICULTURE
“There is unlimited water for agriculture.”
“We will capture rains by creating more storage capacity. Not a drop will go waste.”
Water Demand for
Agriculture
Surface water
accessibility
Fodder cultivation
Income/ Profits
Agricultural Yield
Rainfall
+
Water for
Irrigation
+
+
+
Storage Capacity
+
+
AgricultureWater Demands
+
Area under
Agriculture
Crop choice (Dryland/
Cash Crops)
+
++
+
+
MSP for crops
+
Water Demand for
Agriculture
Surface water
accessibility
Decision-making
(Individual/ Collective)
Fodder cultivation
Income/ Profits
Agricultural Yield
Intensification of
Practices
Rainfall
-
+
Input Costs
+
-
Water for
Irrigation
++-
+ Storage Capacity
+
+
Cost of Cultivation
AgricultureWater Demands
-
Water Use
+
-
Water Scarcity
-
+
MSP for cropsArea under
Agriculture
Crop choice (Dryland/
Cash Crops)
+
++
+
+ +
“Agriculture Water Security critical for improving incomes”
MENTAL MODELS: AGRICULTURE
SUB-SYSTEM’S ACTUAL BEHAVIOUR
Water Demand for
Agriculture
Surface water
accessibilityFodder Demand
Decision-making
(Individual/ Collective)
Livestock breed
Fodder cultivation
+
+
Income/ Profits
Agricultural Yield
Intensification of
Practices
Rainfall
-
+
Input Costs
+
-
Water for
Irrigation
++-
+ Storage Capacity
+
+
Farming Practices
AgricultureWater Demands
+Livestock
Decisions
--
Water Use
+
-
Water Scarcity
-
+
MSP for cropsArea under
Agriculture
Crop choice (Dryland/
Cash Crops)
+
++
+
+ +
“Groundwater is critical for Agriculture and Drinking Water Security”
Water Demand for
Agriculture
Surface water
accessibility
Demand forgroundwaterinfrastructure
No. of individual
borewells
Groundwater
abstraction
Groundwater
availability
Subsidy forgroundwaterinfrastructure
+
+
-+
+
Decision-making
(Individual/ Collective)
-
Income/ Profits
Agricultural Yield
Knowledge gap wrt
to groundwater
+
Rainfall
-
+
<Water Demand for
Agriculture>
+
Water for
Irrigation
+
++
-
Groundwater
Depletion
Water Use+
-Water Scarcity
-
Run-off
Soil quality
Infiltration
+
+
+
+
<Soil quality>+
MSP for cropsArea under
Agriculture
Crop choice (Dryland/
Cash Crops)
+
+
+
+
<Water Use>
+
MENTAL MODELS: GROUNDWATER
“Nature is not as important as agriculture.” “People are different from nature. Only conservation where areas are fenced and devoid of people is successful.”
“Conservation of rivers requires afforestation.”
Surface water
availability
Groundwater
availability
Vegetation Abundance
(Density and Diversity)
Area under
Agriculture
-
Degraded Common lands
Agricultural YieldRainfall
Pollination
Pollinator
Population
+
+
+
<Pollination>
+
Run-off-
+Water for
Irrigation+
+
+
Storage Capacity
+
+
Type of vegetation(Invasive/ Grassland/
Phreatophyte)+
-
<Storage
Capacity>
+
-
Soil quality
Infiltration
+
+
+
+
<Vegetation Abundance
(Density and Diversity)>
+
-
Intensification of
Farming Practices -
Surface water -
Groundwater Linkages
Pollination
+
Fodder Demand
-
+
-
MENTAL MODELS: ECOLOGY
Water Demand for
Agriculture
Surface water
accessibility
Demand forgroundwaterinfrastructure
No. of individual
borewells
Groundwater
abstraction
Groundwater
availability
Subsidy forgroundwaterinfrastructure
+
+
-+
+
Fodder Demand
Decision-making
(Individual/ Collective)
Livestock breed
Fodder cultivation
+
+
-
Vegetation Abundance
(Density and Diversity)
Degraded Common lands
<Decision-making
(Individual/ Collective)>
-
<Degraded Common
lands>
Income/ Profits
Agricultural Yield
Knowledge gap wrt
to groundwater
+
Intensification of
Practices
Rainfall
-
Pollination
Pollinator
Population
+
+
+
<Pollination>
+
+
<Water Demand for
Agriculture>
+
Input Costs
+
-
Water for
Irrigation
+
++-
-
+
<Intensification of
Practices>
Storage Capacity
+
+
Cost of Cultivation
AgricultureWater Demands
Groundwater
Depletion
-
+Livestock
Decisions
--
Type of vegetation(Invasive/ Grasslands/
Phreatophytes)+
+
Water Use
+
-
Water Scarcity
-
+
-
Run-off
Soil quality
Infiltration
+
+
+ +
-
+
<VegetationAbundance(Density andDiversity)>
+
-
Surface Water
Groundwater Linkages
<Soil quality>+
MSP for cropsArea under
Agriculture
Crop choice (Dryland/
Cash Crops)
+
++
+
+
-
<Area under
Agriculture>
-
<Water Use>
+
Pollination
+
<Storage
Capacity>
-
-
<VegetationAbundance(Density andDiversity)>
-
THE COMPLETE PICTURE
Groundwater is critical for Ecosystem Integrity and
Human Wellbeing in Semi-arid Regions.
Source: Vora, Negandhi and Mandal (2020)
Human Wellbeing
Surface watershed
Aquifer
Human Wellbeing
Surface watershedAquifer
MENTAL MODEL SHIFT ACHIEVED
• Mukherjee, A., Saha, D., Harvey, C.F., Taylor, R.G., Ahmed, K.M. and Bhanja, S.N., 2015. Groundwater systems of the Indian sub-continent. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 4, pp.1-14.
• Sayre, S.S. and Taraz, V., 2019. Groundwater depletion in India: Social losses from costly well deepening. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 93, pp.85-100.
• The World Bank. 2010. Deep Wells and Prudence: Towards Pragmatic Action for Addressing Groundwater Overexploitation in India. Washington D.C.: The World Bank.
• Shah, T., Burke, J., Villholth, K., et al. 2007. Groundwater: a global assessment of scale and significance. In D. (. Molden, Water for Food, Water for Life: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (pp. 395-423). London: Earthscan.
• Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, 2016. Manual for Drought Management, New Delhi: Government of India.
• M. Rodell, J. S. Famiglietti, D. N. Wiese, J. T. Reager, H. K. Beaudoing, F. W. Landerer, and M.-H. Lo 2018, ‘Emerging trends in global freshwater availability’ Nature 557, 651–659 (2018)
• Centre for Science and Environment, 2017. Drought But Why? How India can fight the scourge by abandoning drought relief. New Delhi: Centre for Science and Environment.
• Kulkarni, H., Shah, M., & Shankar, P. 2015. Shaping the contours of groundwater governance in India. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 172-192.
• Meadows, D., 2008. Thinking in Systems. London: Earthscan.
• Sharma, S., 2003. Rethinking Watershed Development in India: Strategy for the Twenty First Century. New Delhi, FAO.
• Jones,N., Ross, H., Lynam, T., Perez, P., Leitch, A., 2011. Mental Models: An interdisciplinary synthesis of theory and methods. Ecology and Society, 16(1), 46-46.
• Richardson, G. P., Anderson, D. F., 2019. Systems Thinking, Mapping, and Group Model Building. In: Kilgour D., Eden, C. (eds) Handbook of Group Decision and Negotiation. Springer, Cham.
• Van Loon, A. F. et al., 2016. Drought in the Anthropocene. Nature Geoscience, Volume 9, pp. 89-91.
• Van Loon, A. et al., 2016. Droughts in a Human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding and analysis approaches. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 20, pp. 3631-3650.
REFERENCES
Thank you
©Shuchi Vora
Acknowledgements:The Nature Conservancy (TNC)Yuva MitraArid Communities and TechnologiesCTARA, IIT-BVanam Ecologics