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COLOMBIA: land of opportunities
SERGIO DIAZ-GRANADOS GUIDA
Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Tourism
March 2012
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Contents
▪ Latin America, a promising region
▪ Colombia, in Latin America
▪ Colombia - Italy Relationship
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Latin America & Caribbean Region: separating fact from fiction
Most of the world tends to see Latin America & the Caribbean
as a small, stagnant region, underdeveloped and largely
irrelevant in the global context. A region that is prone to
dictatorships, tangled in the tentacles of drug trafficking, and
fragmented into numerous countries that are very different
from each other.*
3
“Our Time: Latin America in the Twenty-first Century,” by Raul Rivera
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This is how Latin America and the Caribbean are usually portrayed in world maps.
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It would seem as if Greenland were larger.
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…or as if North America were larger.
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…or as if Russia were larger.
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The Latin American and Caribbean
region it is the third largest continent
after Asia and Africa.
It has a population of nearly 600 million
people, twice that of the United States,
but with very important characteristics:
the population is mainly young, with an
average age of 27 years, and composed
of a dynamic and growing middle class.
8
The Region has a vast, young, and dynamic population.
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World Poverty
Source: Worldmapper© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan). 9
The Region’s per capita income is similar to the world average.
Over 300 million Latin Americans have achieved a middle class standard of living, with an
income of twenty thousand dollars a year. This emerging middle class represents 50% and
60% of the regional population (Our Time, Raul Rivera, p. 135).
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Biological production capacity: crops, pastures, forests, and fisheries.
Bio-capacity
Source: Worldmapper© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).
10
The Region has the highest biological production capacity in the world.
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Water Resources
Source: Worldmapper© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).
11
The Region has the richest water resources.
|
Foreign Direct Investment 1971 - 2011 (US$ Billions)
Source: Unctad
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
US
$ B
illo
ns
The Region is growing in net flows of Foreign Direct Investment.
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• Highlighting the Region’s reduction in poverty and its enlargement of the middle class, due to economic growth.
• Recognizing the growing importance of multinationals companies in the Region.
• Recommending that the U.S. work more closely with the Region, given its growing political significance, and because Latinos form its second largest community.
• Indicating that after 200 years of waiting, Central and South America are beginning to develop their full potential.
The world is beginning to see Latin America and the Caribbean from a new perspective.
13Source : The Economist, Sept 11 – 17 2010
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The region promises to play
a key role in the coming
decades, given its economic
weight, its resource wealth,
and its human capital.
From the erroneous views about
the Region’s geography to
misconceptions surrounding
issues of violence and poverty,
now more than ever, an accurate
view is necessary.
Latin America and the Caribbean Region should be seen from a clear perspective.
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Contents
▪ Latin America, a promising region
▪ Colombia, in Latin America
▪ Colombia - Italy Relationship
|
16Source: IMF-World EconomicOutlook Database
2.518
1.185
435
321
310
243
168
65
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Colombia
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
Ecuador
Gross Domestic Product 2011 (USD Billions)
Colombia is the fourth largest economy in Latin America and the Caribbean.
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Land Area (Square km.)
Colombia has the fifth largest territory in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Source: World Bank
248.360
397.300
743.530
882.050
1.083.300
1.109.500
1.280.000
1.943.950
2.736.690
8.459.420
Ecuador
Paraguay
Chile
Venezuela
Bolivia
Colombia
Peru
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
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The Colombian territory is 1,109,500 km2,
3.8 times greater than the size of Italy,
with coasts on the
Atlantic and Pacific oceans,
and one of the most
biologically diverse countries in the world.
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Population 2011 (Million)
Source: IMF-World Economic Outlook Database
194,9
109,7
46,1
40,9
30,0
29,8
17,4
15,0
14,7
Brazil
Mexico
Colombia
Argentina
Peru
Venezuela
Chile
Ecuador
Guatemala
Colombia has the third largest population in Latin America and the Caribbean.
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Colombia has a population of 46 million people, with 55% being under 30 years of age.
| 21Source: ECLAC
Brazil
26,8%Mexico
23,5%
Colombia
9,3%
Chile
9,2%
Argentina
6,9%
Peru
6,5%
Panama
2,7%
Dominican
Republic
2,6%
Others
12,5%
Colombia is the third largest recipient of foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Accumulated net flows of foreign direct investment 2005-2009 (percentages)
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Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia
22
In 2011, FDI flow reached a new record.
Fuente: Banco de la República
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11 J
an
-Se
pt
20
11 E
xc
han
ge B
ala
nc
e
2.542 2.134 1.720
3.016
10.252
6.056
9.049
10.586
7.137 6.760
10.821
15.032U
S$ B
illi
on
|
Investment rose from 15.5% of GDP in 2001 to 28.4% in 2011 (cumulative for the third quarter)
23
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
15,5
16,6
17,8
18,8
20,2
22,6
23,9
25,2
24,1
26,0
28,4
Sh
are
of
GD
P
*2011 cumulative for the third quarter
Total FDI shows a growing trend in Colombia..
Investment % of GDP
Source: National Statistics, calculations from Ministry of Trade
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Colombia - GDP Growth
Source: DANE
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
2,1
3,4
0,6
-4,2
2,9
1,7
2,5
3,9
5,34,7
6,7 6,9
3,5
1,5
4,3
5,8
Va
ria
tio
n (
%)
* 2011- cumulative Jan.-Sept.
The Colombian economy quickly recovered from the global economic crisis.
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A diversified economy
25
Share of GDP, by sector (average 2001-2010)
Source: DANE - Cuentas Nacionales, calculations MCIT
Financial , housing
19,2%
Services
15,8%
Manufacturing
13,8%Commerce,
restaurants and
hotels
11,9%
Other
8,8%
Agropecuary
7,4%
Transport storage
and
Telecommunications
7,0% Mining
6,5%
Construction
5,7%
Utilities
4,0%
|
National Income by Inhabitant (current US$)
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank.
Given this, Colombia has accelerated the growth of its GDP per capita.
26
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5 .000
6.000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Medium low income
Medium high income
US
$
According to international standards, Colombia has been an upper middle income country since 2005.
|
Exports and Imports (US$ Millions, FOB)
27
Foreign trade has quadrupled since 2001
Source: DANE . Calculations OEE Mincomercio
12.330
55.362
11.997
52.591
5.000
15.000
25.000
35.000
45.000
55.000
65.000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (p)
US
$ m
illi
on
s
Exports Imports
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UnitedStates
LatinAmericaand the
Caribbean
EuropeanUnion
Asia Otherscountries
5.255 4.488
1.766299 522
21.705
18.480
8.868
4.083 3.818
US
$ M
illi
on
2001 2011
Source: DANE-Calculations MCIT
Exports to the European Union have grown 402%, between 2001-2011, with and average annual growth of 17.5%.
Colombian Exports by Major Destinations
Colombia is diversifying its market destinations.
| 29Source: ECLAC
24,5
9,5 9,08,1 8,0 7,7 7,5
6,6 6,2 5,8 5,4 4,9 4,74,0 3,7 3,3 3,0 3,0
In 2011, Colombia had one of the lowest inflation rates in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Annual inflation rate of 2011 (average)
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Long Term Sovereign Debt Rating
In its first issuance, after regaining the investment grade by these rating organizations, Colombia issued bonds worth US$ 2 billion for bonds in international markets, with a period of over 10 years and an interest rate of 4.375%, which was only 1.3 % above that of U.S. treasuries. The demand for these bonds amounted to US$ 7.3 billion. 30
…achieving the investment grade
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Colombia’s Position in Doing Business - World Bank
31
Optimizing the business environment
Source: Doing Business- World Bank
155
178183
66 66
42
86
99104
2006 2008 2012
Number of countries Colombian´s position Average South and Central America
In the last five years, Colombia has been recognized as being among the top ten most reformed countries.
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Higher education and training,Position among 142 countries
A competitive workforce
Source: World Economic Forum 2011-2012
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Colombia, on the global radar
Colombia is considered the second most attractive economy in the region for investment, after only Brazil.
“Investors view Brazil and Colombia as the most promising markets in Latin America over the next one to three years…”
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Top 30 economies of the world, by 2050,
GDP US$ constant 2000 Billion
• 19 of the top 30 will be emerging economies.
• Colombia will be the top economy in Latin America for growth in GDP per capita.
• Per capita income will triple in the 40 years.
Source: The World in 2050, Quantifying the shift in the global economy, HSBC, Global Research. 2011.
1 China 24.617 16 Indonesia 1.504
2 US 22.270 17 Australia 1.480
3 India 8.165 18 Argentina 1.477
4 Japan 6.429 19 Egypt 1.165
5 Germany 3.714 20 Malaysia 1.160
6 UK 3.576 21 Saudi Arabia 1.128
7 Brazil 2.960 22 Thailand 856
8 Mexico 2.810 23 Netherlands 798
9 France 2.750 24 Poland 786
10 Canada 2.287 25 Iran 732
11 Italy 2.194 26 Colombia 725
12 Turkey 2.149 27 Switzerland 711
13 S. Korea 2.056 28 Hong Kong 657
14 Spain 1.954 29 Venezuela 558
15 Russia 1.878 30 South africa 529
http://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=ej73gSSJVj&n=282364.PDF
A country with a bright future
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Contents
▪ Latin America, a promising region
▪ Colombia, in Latin America
▪ Colombia - Italy Relationship
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Trade and investment is the answer
“Dominoes: The collapse of Greece and Ireland's economies could have a knock-on effect on other nations. Britain's public sector net debt is £845.8 billion, the equivalent to 57.1 per cent of gross domestic product.” Daily Mail, November 2010
Strengthening trade is the
antidote in times of uncertainty.
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Signed: Japan, Singapore, Gulf Community, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica
Initiated / MOU: Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, South Africa, other African nations Source: OEE-MCIT 37
By 2014: 13 FTAs in force, with 50 countries
Colombia’s Free Trade Agreements - 2014
Mercosur
CAN
Venezuela Triángulo Norte
Costa Rica
Panamá
Rep. DominicanaMéxico
Estados Unidos
Canadá
Chile
Colombia
Unión Europea
EFTA
Rusia
Golfo
Pérsico
Turquía Japón
Corea
del Sur
Latin America
Asia
Indonesia
MalasiaSingapur
Suráfrica
Africa
North America
In Force: CAN, Mexico, Chile, Mercosur, Northern Triangle, Canada, EFTA, Turkey, Panama, Venezuela, South Korea
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…and given the FTAs with the U.S. and Canada,
Colombia can be a hub for Italian goods, services, and investment.
Mercosur
CAN
Venezuela Triángulo Norte
Costa Rica
Panamá
Rep. DominicanaMéxico
Estados Unidos
Canadá
Chile
Colombia
Unión Europea
EFTA
Rusia
Source: MCIT.
Opportunities for Italy
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Benefits to EU businesses will come with the entry into force of the FTA, in late 2012.
Colombia – European Union FTA
The agreement opens up market opportunities for key EU industries, which will benefit from the elimination of tariffs.
These include the sectors of Automobiles and Auto parts, which pay over 33 million euros, Chemicals, which pay over 16 million euros, and Textiles, which pay over 60 million euros, annually, in taxes on imports into Colombia.
The FTA also provides for the immediate liberalization of fishery products, as well as major concessions in agriculture.
| 40Source: Dane.
Trade between Colombia and the European Union1993-2011 (US$ million FOB)
Colombia's trade with the European Union surpasses US$ 16 billion, annually
1.738
8.868
7.161
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
US
$ M
illio
n
Exportaciones Importaciones (FOB)
| 41Source: DANE-Eurostat
The productive structures of Italy and Colombia are different. This favors the complementarity of the economies.
Composition of output (value added) in Colombia and Italy, 2010
Sector Italy Colombia
Agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing 1,9 7,0
Mining and quarrying 0,4 8,9
Manufacturing Industries 16,0 14,9
Electricity, gas, and water 4,4
Construction 6,1 8,1
Trade, repairs, restaurants, and hotels 14,9 12,8
Transport, storage and communications 9,8 6,9
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 27,7 20,3
Social work activities, community and personal 20,9 16,8
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Source: DANE-Eurostat
The production of the industrial sectors of each country also have differences.
Composition of industrial added value of Colombia and Italy, 2010
Sector Italy Colombia
Foods, beverages, and tobacco 11,3 25,4
Textiles, garments, leather, and leather products 10,9 10,5
Wood, paper, publishing, and printing 6,5 7,4
Oil Refining 1,0 18,4
Chemicals and chemical products 6,9 10,8
Plastic, rubber, and nonmetallic minerals 8,5 10,6
Basic Metallurgy 17,0 7,3
Machinery and equipment 13,2 2,4
Electrical machinery, appliances and electronics 8,4 2,3
Transport equipment 6,4 1,2
Furniture and other goods 10,0 3,7
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Trade Opportunities for Italy
Colombia: Imports by country of origin in 2010 (% of total)
Source: DANE-DIAN –Calculations OEE- Ministry of Trade
Estados…
China
México
Brasil
Alemania
Argentina
Francia
Japón
Corea
Ecuador
Perú
India
Canada
Chile
Italia
España
Trinidad Y…
Venezuela
Israel
24,9
15,0
11,1
5,0
4,1
3,4
3,3
2,6
2,3
1,9
1,9
1,8
1,8
1,6
1,5
1,1
1,1
1,0
0,3
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Italy-Colombia economic relations
Source: DANE
…approximately US$ 1.4 billion in bilateral trade between Colombia and Italy.
Bilateral trade, Colombia - ItalyExport-Import FOB - Balance
-140
-8
114
745
254
753
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
US
$ M
illio
n
Balanza Comercial Exportaciones Importaciones (FOB)
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Colombia: Foreign Direct Investment by Country of Origin *, 2000-2010
* Excluding petroleumSource: Bank of the Republic
It is important to boost Italian FDI to Colombia
United States28,9%
Great Britain15,6%
Panama9,5%
Anguilla7,9%
Spain7,9%
Virgin Isles6,0%
Bermudas5,5%
Canada3,6%
Brazil2,4%
Mexico2,0%
France1,6%
Italy0,2%
Israel0,1%
Otros8,7%
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Colombian exports to Italy, 2011
Source: DANE – Calculations OEE- Ministry of Trade
A total of 1.3% of Colombian exports go to Italy.
A total of 1.4% of Colombian imports are from Italy.
…with trade complementarities and much room for growth.
Italian exports to Colombia, 2011
Coal 27,4%
Petroleum 21,2%
Basic Chemicals 13,7%
Bananas 11,3%
Ferronickle 7,4%
Coffee 6,0%
Machinery and equipment 2,7%
Agribusiness 1,2%
Mining 1,1%
Products of plastic 0,6%
Other 7,5%
Machinery and equipment 50,0%
Basic Chemicals 21,0%
Metalurgy 5,6%
Textiles 3,9%
Automotive industry 3,1%
Products of plastic 2,0%
Paper 1,8%
Soaps, cosmetics, other 1,3%
Apparel 0,9%
Footwear 0,5%
Other 9,9%
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Products Italian importsfrom world
Colombianexports to Italy
Colombian exports to world
Fuels and their products 5.225.255 362.163 36.126.980
Pharmaceuticals 3.036.586 24 409.120
Tobacco and itsproducts 1.012.828 - 30.445
Footwear and itsaccessories 930.304 2 52.193
Products of iron and steel 706.474 55.140 979.859
Plastics and their products 683.513 8.123 1.502.081
Medical appliances 593.894 132 169.004
Fish and crustaceans 576.517 38 160.401
US$ millions
Colombia has new sectors with potential in the Italian market.
Source: Comtrade y DANE.
Opportunities for Colombia
| 48
Products Colombianimports from
world
Italian exports to Colombia
Italian exports to world
Machinery and parts297.873,26 2.934 1.098.405
Pharmaceuticals85.834,72 5.295 2.578.161
Electrical machinery52.475,10 887 646.378
Scientific instruments and machinery 38.470,19 872 317.401
Organic chemical products 36.488,70 398 153.796
Products of iron and steel 30.740,77 1.076 775.955
Medical appliances 26.051,78 2.136 2.352.327
Vehicles 24.037,09 1.692 2.315.669
Opportunities for Italy
Italy has significant sales opportunities in the Colombian market.
Source: Commtrade and DANE.
US$ million
| 49
A long way to go, but for Colombia...
• 12 million people moved into the middle class over the past 10 years.
• 1.5 million jobs created in the last 18 months and unemployment has dropped to 9.8%, as of December 2011.
• Among the Top Ten Reformers in the Doing Business ranking, four times and counting.
• Moved from 5th economy in Latin America to the 4th.
And in 2011,
• Ranked the 4th economy, worldwide, for greatest dynamism in exports,
• Received investment grade from the three most important ratings agencies,
• Ranked the 4th largest destination for FDI to Latin America.
Moreover, many opportunities for Italy in Colombia: good prognosis, business climate and incentives.
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COLOMBIA – ITALY
SERGIO DIAZ-GRANADOS GUIDA
Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Tourism
March 2012