colorado tourism office keynote (october 4, 2013)
DESCRIPTION
Presented at the Colorado Tourism Office's fall meeting in Telluride, CO on October 4, 2013. The power went out just before this presentation, so you never had a chance to see the slides - bummer! This talk covers weather forecasting secrets for Colorado as well strategies to use weather information to increase tourism business.TRANSCRIPT
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Sometimes theweathermanis right!
Photo: Connor Walberg ActionPhotoSchool.com
Meteorologist Joel Gratz
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ActiveJunky.com
Wolf Creek, COMonday, December 31, 2012
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“My wife and I chased the last storm to Wolf Creek. By mid morning there were double digits and it was a full on powder day. We couldn’t get enough. Your forecast lead us to face shots...” - Mike V.
ActiveJunky.com
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ActiveJunky.com
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ActiveJunky.com
“...then another storm will likely move up from the southwest on Monday (December 31st) and could target the southern San Juans with good snow (Durango, Silverton, Wolf Creek).”
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ActiveJunky.com
12/25/12Tuesday
12/31/13Monday
FOR
EC
AS
T
WO
LF C
RE
EK
P
OW
DE
R!
+ 6 days
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It’s not fun to miss a powder day
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1960
2005
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1) Remove mystery ofColorado weather.
How this presentation will help you:
2) How to use weatherto increase your business.
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Hi, I’m Joel Gratz.
I grew up in Pennsylvania,ski raced and instructed, then moved to Colorado after college.
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And I started to miss powder days due to inaccurate forecasts.
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And it made me mad!
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Dec 2007 28 people email list
2008-2009 500 people email list
2009-2010 245,000 pageviews
2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews
2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews
2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews
So I learned how to forecast in Colorado, and started to share.
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Big Weather(primary care doctor)
(knee surgeon)
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Actual Storm Track
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16 Day Forecast
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15 Day Forecast
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14 Day Forecast
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13 Day Forecast
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12 Day Forecast
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11 Day Forecast
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10 Day Forecast
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9 Day Forecast
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8 Day Forecast
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7 Day Forecast
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6 Day Forecast
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5 Day Forecast
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4 Day Forecast
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3 Day Forecast
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2 Day Forecast
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1 Day Forecast
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Actual Storm Track
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Storm
Front Range Flood
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\
Front Range Flood
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Denver
Boulder
Longmont
Loveland
Ft Collins
Estes Park
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Weather is not magic. It’s physics.
Forecasts are rarely perfect, but they are getting better every year. Study them, don’t dismiss them.
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Long range forecasts stink!
We cannot reliably predict snow accumulationsbeyond about two weeks. Seasonal outlooks are even worse.
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But, we can lookfor clues aboutsnow during the upcoming winter.
Just don’t get too excited. Or depressed.
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This is where we look for El Nino or La Nina.
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Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for La Nina.
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Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for El Nino.
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But it is (probably) a La Nada.
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Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for La Nada.
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Perhaps there’s another clue.
We set a snowfall record in April and a rainfall record in September for Boulder. Does this tell us anything about winter snow in the mountains?
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It just might be a great winter.
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Each line shows amount of snow on the ground for various weather stations, during winters after heavy precipitation in Boulder.
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 April 1
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It snowed in Aspen during September.
Of the past 22 Septembers with snow, 19 of the
ensuing winters have been average or above.
- Cory Gates, AspenWeather.net
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Weather happens when moist air
gets high
1 2 3
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Where’s the moisture?
Lots of moisture(ocean source)
Less moisture(land source)
OK moisture(ocean + plants)
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Orographics get air high
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Mountains = Precipitation
Indian Peaks / RMNP
Sangre deChristo
Park Range
Flattops
GrandMesa
ElkMtns
EastSan Juans
N&SSan Juans
Sawatch
Gore
Ten Mile &Mosquito
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Favorable wind directions
Wolf Creek
Silverton
Telluride
Powderhorn Crested Butte
AspenVail
Summit Co.
SteamboatRMNP
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VailJanuary 31, 2013
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http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm
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Moi
stur
e in
the
air
Temperature >> colder
10F 0F
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The best snow requires...
• Lots of moisture
• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F
• Not too much wind
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Wind directions?Complicated.What about radar?
Nope. There’s a problem...
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Jamming the Radar
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Overshooting the Snow
0.5 deg
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
Denver Airport
PuebloGrandMesa
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
RMNP
Steamboat
Telluride
Wolf Creek
Aspen
Vail
Summit Co.
Crested Butte
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
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4.8 mile resolution
2.4 mile resolution
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4.8 mile resolution
2.4 mile resolution
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Weather & Tourism: Trends
• More educated consumers, weather is a big factor.
• Weather is not just a consideration but a driver of bookings.
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Weather & Tourism: How-to
• Create customer segments based on weather sensitivity.
• What can this accomplish?
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Weather & Tourism: Repeats
35%
80%
Tipping point5-9 uses
See more insights on the blog at RyanSolutions.com
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What are we doing well?
• Educating the audience & putting the weather into their (fun!) context.
• 85% returning visitor rate.
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Apps coming in November!
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We need your help...
• We’re a young, local business and...
• We’re doing something right, but would love your help to identify how we can positively impact the industry.
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How to plan
7-10 days 4-5 days 2-3 days