![Page 1: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Sometimes theweathermanis right!
Photo: Connor Walberg ActionPhotoSchool.com
Meteorologist Joel Gratz
![Page 2: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
ActiveJunky.com
Wolf Creek, COMonday, December 31, 2012
![Page 3: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
“My wife and I chased the last storm to Wolf Creek. By mid morning there were double digits and it was a full on powder day. We couldn’t get enough. Your forecast lead us to face shots...” - Mike V.
ActiveJunky.com
![Page 4: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
ActiveJunky.com
![Page 5: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
ActiveJunky.com
“...then another storm will likely move up from the southwest on Monday (December 31st) and could target the southern San Juans with good snow (Durango, Silverton, Wolf Creek).”
![Page 6: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
ActiveJunky.com
12/25/12Tuesday
12/31/13Monday
FOR
EC
AS
T
WO
LF C
RE
EK
P
OW
DE
R!
+ 6 days
![Page 7: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
It’s not fun to miss a powder day
![Page 8: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
1960
2005
![Page 9: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
1) Remove mystery ofColorado weather.
How this presentation will help you:
2) How to use weatherto increase your business.
![Page 10: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Hi, I’m Joel Gratz.
I grew up in Pennsylvania,ski raced and instructed, then moved to Colorado after college.
![Page 11: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
And I started to miss powder days due to inaccurate forecasts.
![Page 12: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
And it made me mad!
![Page 13: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Dec 2007 28 people email list
2008-2009 500 people email list
2009-2010 245,000 pageviews
2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews
2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews
2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews
So I learned how to forecast in Colorado, and started to share.
![Page 14: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Big Weather(primary care doctor)
(knee surgeon)
![Page 16: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Actual Storm Track
![Page 17: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
16 Day Forecast
![Page 18: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
15 Day Forecast
![Page 19: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
14 Day Forecast
![Page 20: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
13 Day Forecast
![Page 21: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
12 Day Forecast
![Page 22: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
11 Day Forecast
![Page 23: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
10 Day Forecast
![Page 24: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
9 Day Forecast
![Page 25: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
8 Day Forecast
![Page 26: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
7 Day Forecast
![Page 27: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
6 Day Forecast
![Page 28: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
5 Day Forecast
![Page 29: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
4 Day Forecast
![Page 30: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
3 Day Forecast
![Page 31: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
2 Day Forecast
![Page 32: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
1 Day Forecast
![Page 33: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Actual Storm Track
![Page 34: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Storm
Front Range Flood
![Page 35: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
\
Front Range Flood
![Page 36: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Denver
Boulder
Longmont
Loveland
Ft Collins
Estes Park
![Page 37: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Weather is not magic. It’s physics.
Forecasts are rarely perfect, but they are getting better every year. Study them, don’t dismiss them.
![Page 38: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Long range forecasts stink!
We cannot reliably predict snow accumulationsbeyond about two weeks. Seasonal outlooks are even worse.
![Page 39: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
But, we can lookfor clues aboutsnow during the upcoming winter.
Just don’t get too excited. Or depressed.
![Page 40: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
This is where we look for El Nino or La Nina.
![Page 41: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for La Nina.
![Page 42: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for El Nino.
![Page 43: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
But it is (probably) a La Nada.
![Page 44: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Courtesy: Mike Baker, NWS Boulder
Storm tracks for La Nada.
![Page 45: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Perhaps there’s another clue.
We set a snowfall record in April and a rainfall record in September for Boulder. Does this tell us anything about winter snow in the mountains?
![Page 46: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
It just might be a great winter.
![Page 47: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Each line shows amount of snow on the ground for various weather stations, during winters after heavy precipitation in Boulder.
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 April 1
![Page 48: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
It snowed in Aspen during September.
Of the past 22 Septembers with snow, 19 of the
ensuing winters have been average or above.
- Cory Gates, AspenWeather.net
![Page 49: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Weather happens when moist air
gets high
1 2 3
![Page 50: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Where’s the moisture?
Lots of moisture(ocean source)
Less moisture(land source)
OK moisture(ocean + plants)
![Page 51: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Orographics get air high
![Page 52: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Mountains = Precipitation
Indian Peaks / RMNP
Sangre deChristo
Park Range
Flattops
GrandMesa
ElkMtns
EastSan Juans
N&SSan Juans
Sawatch
Gore
Ten Mile &Mosquito
![Page 53: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Favorable wind directions
Wolf Creek
Silverton
Telluride
Powderhorn Crested Butte
AspenVail
Summit Co.
SteamboatRMNP
![Page 54: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
![Page 55: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
VailJanuary 31, 2013
![Page 56: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
![Page 57: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/primer.htm
![Page 58: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Moi
stur
e in
the
air
Temperature >> colder
10F 0F
![Page 59: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
The best snow requires...
• Lots of moisture
• Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F
• Not too much wind
![Page 60: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Wind directions?Complicated.What about radar?
Nope. There’s a problem...
![Page 61: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Jamming the Radar
![Page 62: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Overshooting the Snow
0.5 deg
![Page 63: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
Denver Airport
PuebloGrandMesa
![Page 64: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
RMNP
Steamboat
Telluride
Wolf Creek
Aspen
Vail
Summit Co.
Crested Butte
![Page 65: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
![Page 66: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
4.8 mile resolution
2.4 mile resolution
![Page 67: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
4.8 mile resolution
2.4 mile resolution
![Page 68: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Weather & Tourism: Trends
• More educated consumers, weather is a big factor.
• Weather is not just a consideration but a driver of bookings.
![Page 69: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Weather & Tourism: How-to
• Create customer segments based on weather sensitivity.
• What can this accomplish?
![Page 70: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Weather & Tourism: Repeats
35%
80%
Tipping point5-9 uses
See more insights on the blog at RyanSolutions.com
![Page 71: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
What are we doing well?
• Educating the audience & putting the weather into their (fun!) context.
• 85% returning visitor rate.
![Page 72: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Apps coming in November!
![Page 73: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
We need your help...
• We’re a young, local business and...
• We’re doing something right, but would love your help to identify how we can positively impact the industry.
![Page 74: Colorado Tourism Office Keynote (October 4, 2013)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081516/54b651d14a795910668b45ee/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
How to plan
7-10 days 4-5 days 2-3 days