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Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook

EIA 2018 Workshop on Financial and Physical Energy Market Linkages

September 27, 2018

Commodities Research

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 37.

Michael Cohen

+1 212 526-3606

[email protected]

BCI, US

Restricted - External

12 September 2018

Views on a page

1. We see material upside risk from current price levels during 4Q due to supply

disruptions and Iran sanctions.

2. But unless there are even further disruptions than those baked into our balances, the

balance should weaken through end-2019. Therefore, we see prices averaging

between $70-80/b in Q4 and next year.

3. Price risks to the upside: US production cutbacks, stronger-than-forecast demand,

supply disruptions (Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Nigeria, Libya).

4. Price risks to the downside: US and other non-OPEC production outperformance,

demand growth disappoints, trade tension and protectionism concerns.

5. In the medium term, we forecast Brent prices at $75 in 2020 and $80 in 2025, around

$15 higher than the curve.

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research


2

12 September 2018

Synchronous global backdrop drove robust demand growth

Time frames of synchronous global economic growth are consistent with acceleration in demand

growth and rising oil prices (Jan 1998-Dec 2018)

Source: Haver Analytics, IEA, EIA (Imported nominal average acq. cost), Barclays Research


-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Global Oil Demand Growth and Oil Prices

Nom. oil price ($/b), LHS Oil Demand Growth, 12 mth MA (%, RHS)

synchronous global growth

3

Source for all charts: CNBS, Haver, Bloomberg, Markit, Barclays Economics Research

Emergent Chinese growth fears Trade indicators turn negative

12 September 2018

But now, China growth fears and trade tensions add headwinds


4

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

45

47

49

51

53

55

57

Jan-10 Jun-11 Nov-12 Apr-14 Sep-15 Feb-17 Jul-18

Global PMI Industrial Goods: New Export Orders

US Capital Goods orders (RHS)

% 6m on 6m change, saar

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Q2 10 Q2 11 Q2 12 Q2 13 Q2 14 Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 17 Q2 18

% y/y

Official GDP

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Aug-10 Aug-12 Aug-14 Aug-16 Aug-18

% y/y

China Infrastructure Investment

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Aug-10 Aug-12 Aug-14 Aug-16 Aug-18

% y/y

China New Export Orders PMI

Note: The chart on RHS shows average retail gasoline prices in local currency indexed at 2005 level. Source for all charts: IEA, EIA, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Sharply higher oil prices weighed significantly

on demand growth in Q1 last year and Q2 this

year

Subsidies removal, additional taxation and a

strengthening USD are all having an outsized

effect on local-currency retail fuel prices

12 September 2018

But higher oil prices could turn into a headwind for demand growth


-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18

Total demand y/y change (mb/d)

Brent price y/y change (%, rhs)

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Brent India China

Thailand US EU

5

12 September 2018

And supply growth outside OPEC remains strong

Source for all charts: EIA, IEA Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Despite Petrobras’s problems and retail price

intervention, production still set to grow strongly

Non-OPEC supply growth exceeding demand

US tight oil production is the main source of

growth

0.43 0.42

0.13

-0.34

-0.09

0.15 0.10

0.19 0.23

0.10

-0.14

0.04

0.09

0.170.27

0.25

0.15

0.43

0.73

0.51

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Eagle Ford Williston Basin -ND

Permian Alaska

US Gulf of Mexico Other Crude

NGLs


0.50.1

0.1

1.2

0.1

0.6

1.6

2.4

1.5

-0.7

0.8

2.0

1.6

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

mb/dNon-OPEC Supply Growth

North America (NAM) Non-OPEC ex-NAM

*Not including OPEC non-crude liquids

1.31

3.30

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Brazilian oil ouptut (mb/d)

Campos Santos Other

6

12 September 2018

Therefore, we still see the market balance in slight surplus next year.

The severe supply deficit from 2017 to 3Q18 has helped support prices

Source: IEA, EIA, Barclays Research


72

75

67

73

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19

Oil market balance and prices

Stock change + misc (LHS) Brent Price (RHS)

7

The Permian remains constrained through mid next year but still holds large potential

Source: for all: Wood Mackenzie, Company Filings, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Permian takeaway capacity constraints in the

region will prove transitory

However, capital discipline continues to keep

spending in check

12 September 2018


0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 11 Q1 13 Q1 15 Q1 17 Q1 19 Q1 21 Q1 23 Q1 25

Basin refining capacity

Pipelines in operation

Pipelines FID-ed

Proposed pipelines

Production

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H 18

Large cap

Small&Mid cap

Group

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Wolfcamp Bone

Spring

Eagle Ford SCOOP/

STACK

Bakken/Three Forks Niobrara

<$40/bbl

$40-50/bbl

$50-60/bbl

>$60/bbl

Remaining liquid reserves (bn barrels) by play and breakeven

Large opportunity set vs other plays in terms of remaining liquids reserves

8

12 September 2018

Inventory cushion erodes and JCPOA exit raises tension

Key oil transit chokepoints and infrastructure are at risk of disruption in the months ahead

Source: S&P Global Platts, EIA, Barclays Research


9

Iran’s exports fall 800 kb/d and we expect a further decline

Source: IEA, Petro-logistics (exports), Barclays Research

Three angles to Iran-related price effect: trade, medium-term investment, geopolitics; medium-

term implications most market moving, in our view


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jan-17 Oct-17 Jul-18

Iran exports and key sanctions dates

IEA Petrologistics*

Jan 2012: First full month of

NDAA implementation

Jan. 2014: P5+1 Joint

Plan of Action goes in

to effect

Jan. 2016: Iran reaches

implementation day

July : EU P&I Club grace

period expires

March: EU For. Ministers agree

to enforce ban on import of

Iranian crude and products

Oct: EU prohibits storing on

EU tanker and blacklists oil-

related entities.

May 2018: US withdraws

from JCPOA, reimposes

sanctions

12 September 2018 10

12 September 2018

Despite disruption risks, we think prices are likely to remain rangebound between $70-80/b in 2019 and 2020

Source: EIA, CDU-TEK, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Conventional spare capacity estimates and

other offsets likely understated

Spare capacity levels low but have been worse

Base metals continue to diverge from energy

commodities

Short order supply mb/d Other supply mb/d

Iraq 0.17 UAE 0.3

Kuwait 0.15 Russia 0.3

Saudi Arabia 0.53 Neutral Zone 0.5

UAE 0.29 Saudi Arabia 0.5

Total 1.14 Total 1.6

2.7

Govt InventoriesDrawdown

rate* (mb/d)

Capacity level

(mill. Bbl)

OECD ex-US 2.52 907

US 1.83 660

non-OECD 0.78 280

Total 5.13 1847

*Drawdown of half the inventory level is assumed over 180 days.

Design drawdown of US SPR is 4.4 mb/d for 90 days

Grand total wellhead supply spare capacity

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18

Agriculture Livestock

Precious Metals Base Metals

Energy

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18

Rosneft Annual Output Growth by Field Type (kb/d)

Old Greenfields Brownfields Other Total

Russian output is rebounding


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Sp.Cpy/Demand

(inverted)$/b Spare Capacity and Oil Prices

Price

Sp Capacity/Demand

Sp.Capacity(incl Neutral Zone)/Demand

11

Source: IEA, Barclays Research

12 September 2018

IMO sulphur cap revision to boost diesel demand by almost 2mb/d y/y in 2020

We expect diesel to replace 1.9 mb/d of HSFO

used in marine bunkers in 2020

This will boost diesel demand in an already

tight distillates market

Source: Shell, Barclays Research


1.7

3.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2019 2020

HSFO Diesel LNG

45.6

37.9

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

IMO sulphur cap announcement

12

Medium-term oil price outlook:

Full report: Oil Special Report: Resisting Temptation, 4 Sep 2018



https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2407681

OPEC unrest reduces the opportunity set, raises pressure on selected members

Source: IMF, SAMA, Barclays Research

No shortage of oil, but a shortage of access Middle East still the largest share of

oil exports

Most MENA countries need prices to stay at or above current levels

Source: Rystad Energy, Barclays Research

Source: BP Statistical Review

12 September 2018


35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Share of global exports by region

North America S. & Cent. AmericaEurope Other

Middle East

Russia & CIS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Producing Under

development

Discovery Undiscovered

Bill bblRemaining Resources by country & status

Sanctioned At risk OPEC* US & Canada Brazil Other

21%12%

22%

*At risk OPEC countries include Iraq, Libya,

Algeria, Nigeria, UAE, and Saudi Arabia

41%

$84 $111

$72$54 $48

$114

$72

$44

$78$65

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Algeria Bahrain Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE

Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices (IMF)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

14

• The most substantial change from last year is associated with the 1.5 mb/d reduction in supply from key

OPEC countries, and the higher required WTI price needed to offset it over a multi-year period.

• Though we expect that a price range above $80 will become the new norm next decade, our market balances

do not justify those price levels in the next one to two years.

• There are many other possible reasons to be bullish during that time frame, but the “supply gap” is not one of

them.

• Note: WTI discount range from $5-8/b.

Key takeaways from our recently released report

12 September 2018


Prices range from below $70/b to above $80 in 2020, between $70-85 by 2025

$76

$72$71

$75

$77

$80

$81$78 $80

$85

$64

$69

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Unconstrained Permian scenarioBase Case

OPEC investment deferral scenarioBrent Curve

Low demand scenario

Source: Barclays Research

15

Source: Rystad Energy UCube, Barclays Research

12 September 2018

Supply gap thesis is valid but is deferred

2018 oil project FIDs likely to be on par with

2013 when oil was $100/b

And non-OPEC crude and condensate

projects approved over 2014-2018 should add

6 mb/d by 2024

Source: Woodmackenzie, Barclays Research


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Production volumes from projects

approved 2014-18 (mb/d)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

18.0

9.8

9.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Liquids reserves by year of sanctioned

projects (Bill. bbl)

Sanctioned Projects

Expected to receive FID

16

Note: WoodMackenzie assumes 15% cost of capital, WTI equivalent prices, half cycle breakeven. Source: WoodMackenzie, Barclays Research

Reserves estimate up almost 10% y/y; over 90% of the cost base is below $60/b at a 15% IRR

US tight oil resource base assessments keep growing

12 September 2018


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

Q2 2018

Q3 2017

Q3 2016

Q3 2015

Cumulative liquids reserves (mmboe)

WTI breakeven ($/b)

17

Note: Number of horizontal wells brought online by operator category. Source: DrillingInfo, Barclays Research

12 September 2018

US productivity improvements: Consolidation, optimization

Average well productivity has increased

significantly in the region…

…as the share of Permian-focused large

players has increased

Note cumulative oil output from average horizontal well in the region. Source: DrillingInfo, Barclays Research


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

Permian-focussed players

Other major upstream players

Implied private players

18

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Barclays Research

12 September 2018

But these gains are assumed to diminish over time.

Longer laterals and increased proppant

intensity have also played a part…

…but we expect productivity to peak around

2020-21 as Tier-1 acreage dries out

Source: DrillingInfo, Barclays Research


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

WTI breakeven price for type well ($/b, 15% discount rate)

Cumulative remaining locations

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD

Avg. horizontal length (ft, lhs)

Avg. proppant intensity (lbs/ft)

19

We still expect Permian oil output to reach 8 mb/d by 2025

Note: Cumulative tight oil output growth by region (mb/d) over 2017. Source: Rystad UCube, DrillingInfo, Barclays Research

Permian region drives majority of US tight oil output growth over the medium term

• We expect the share of total horizontal wells brought online in the region by smaller private

players to decline from 31% last year to 20% by 2025 owing primarily to continued acreage

consolidation in the region.

• We expect the total plowback ratio in the region to decline from 156% last year to slightly over

90% in 2025.

• We also expect the 12-m cumulative oil output from an average horizontal well in the region to

increase to 170kb in 2020-21 and slowly decline to around 130kb by 2025.

12 September 2018


2.2

5.61.5

2.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Permian region All other tight oil regions

20

Brazil and Russia: major non-OPEC supply risks in the outlook

Source for all charts: Skolkovo Institute, IEA, CDU-TEK, Barclays Research

Russian output could be 700 kb/d lower by

some estimates

Supply growth in context – US provides the

lion’s share

12 September 2018


11.4

10.7

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Th

ou

san

ds

Russian Output (mb/d)

Barclays Skolkovo base Skolkovo sanctions

Outside US tight oil, Brazil and Iraq are the major contributors to medium term supply growth

though other countries play a supporting role, offsetting other major declines

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

UAE

Neutral Zone

Venezuela

Libya

Iran

Iraq

Russia

Nigeria

Other OPEC

mb/d

OPEC Liquids Growth/Decline

2018-2022 2022-2025

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Brazil

Australia

Middle East

Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Europe

Canadian Oil Sands

Asia

mb/d

Non-OPEC Liquids Growth/Decline

2018-2022 2022-2025

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Total US tight liquids (kb/d)

OPEC liquids (kb/d)

Other non-OPEC liquids (kb/d)

21

• Our estimates are based on higher world GDP growth, coupled with lower unemployment rates

in developed countries and rising per capita income levels in the developing world.

• Electric vehicles gain popularity, primarily due to policy push. We expect 55 mn EVs on the

road by 2025, an increase of 10% from our prior estimate.

• Diesel demand is likely to soar at the expense of fuel oil demand, as the International Maritime

Organization (IMO) implements a significantly lower sulfur cap for marine bunker fuel.

In our base case, we expect global liquids demand to grow to about 107.6 mb/d by 2025

Source: IEA, WIND , Bloomberg, Barclays Research

12 September 2018


World oil demand growth by product

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

PPP-based GDP Gasoline Diesel LPG & Naphtha Jet/kero All other Total oil demand

2007-17 CAGR (Actual) 2017-25 CAGR (Forecast)

22

• EV (including battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV)) sales grew to

more than 1.1mn units last year, more than double the volume sold in 2015 and over 50%

higher than 2016.

• We estimate that most of the growth came from China, which accounted for almost two-thirds

of worldwide EV sales.

• The growth in China’s EV sales has been robust despite a significant reduction in government

subsidies over the past few years.

Growing popularity of EVs also weighing on gasoline demand growth

Source: IEA, ACEA, InsideEVs, Barclays Research

12 September 2018


China leads the charge on electric vehicle sales

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1Q2015 3Q2015 1Q2016 3Q2016 1Q2017 3Q2017 1Q2018

'000 units US China EU

23

APPENDIX



Source for all charts: IEA, EIA, Barclays Research

OPEC in need of new indicator, as the

inventory level is now below the 5-year range

12 September 2018

Inventory excess gone, market turns focus to other metrics

Using days forward inventory + spare capacity

cover would be more useful

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10026

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

$/b

Days cover

(inverted)

OECD Stocks (Days Cover) vs Price

OECD Stocks (Days cover)

Brent Price

Fcst.


-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

Jan-13 Mar-14 May-15 Jul-16 Sep-17 Nov-18

mbbill. barrels

OECD industry petroleum stock levels

Stocks vs 5-year Stock Level (LHS)

Stock Level Fcst (LHS) Prior 5-year avg (LHS)

25

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, CFTC, Barclays Research

Speculative net length still presents downside risk

Net managed money positioning has declined

significantly, but remains high

Direct hedging by producers in the futures

market has declined

Swap dealer net short positioning suggests

producers are hedging with swaps via banks

12 September 2018


$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18

Contracts (000)

Long

Short

Net

WTI (rhs)

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18

Contracts (000)

Long

Short

Net

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18

Contracts (000)Long

Short

Net

26

12 September 2018

Libyan oil supply still subject to disruption

Despite resolution and return of some supplies, Libya’s output can swing by at least 500 kb/d

Source: IEA, EIA, Barclays Research

AG – Arabian Gulf Oil Co

Ak – Akakus Oil Co

AO – Agip Oil Co

HO – Harouge Oil

MO – Mabruk Oil

SO – Sirte Oil Co

WO – Waha Oil Co

Wi – Wintershall

ZO – Zueitina Oil

A – Amazigh

BDB – Benghazi Defence Brigades

LNA – Libya National Army

M – Misrata

SC – Shura Council

SCM – Shura Council of Mujahideen (Allied to AQ)

T – Tebu Militia

Trp – Tripoli Militias

TUA – Taureg

Za – Zawiyah

Zi – Zintan

Libya Dawn

Operation Dignity

Islamist

Petroleum

Facilities Guard

Libyan

National Guard

LNA

LNA LNA

Zi

Zi

Zi

Za

A

Za Za

M

LNA

LNA

LNA

LNA

LNA

LNA

TUA Ak

ZO

HO

MO

ZO WO

WO

SO

SO

WO

HO

SO ZO

WO

WO AG

Wi

MO

Trp LNG

Ind

Zawara

Mellitah

Riyayna

Zintan

Zawiyah

Tripoli (Tarabulas)

Nalut

Ghadames

Ubari

Murzuq

Sabha

Al Khums

Misrata

Sirte

Sidra

(Es-Sider)

Brak

Ras Lanuf

Marada

Al-Ugaylah

Marsa el Brega

Ajdabiya

Zueitina

Benghazi

Al Bayda Derna

Tobruk

(Hariga)

LNA Wahat Jalu

Sarir Refinery GMMR Power

Station

Sharara

PFG AO El Feel (Elephant)

En Naga

Sabah

Zella

Ghani Jofra

Al Mabruk Bahi

Dahra

Tibisti

Raguba

Nasser

Samah Defa

Waha S

Amal

Intisar

Gialo

Mesla

Sarir

Al Jurf

Wafa Waddan

Libya

Tunisia

Murzuq Basin

Sirte Basin Sarir/Mesla

Oilfield

Oil Pipeline

Oil Refinery

Oil Storage

Tanker Terminal

Active Front Line

Zawiyah

Max refining/export

capacity 200,000 b/d

NOC

Mellitah

Export capacity 30,000 b/d

NOC/ENI

Es-Sider


NOC

Ras Lanuf

Max refining/export

capacity 220,000 b/d

NOC/Trasta

Zueitina


NOC/Occidental/OMV

Brega

Max refining/export

capacity 51,000 b/d

NOC

Hariga


AGOCO-NOC

A

Hamada AG

Military dispositions represent location of forces, not their

relative strength which is variable

Mar-18

Ind

Al Fuqaha Nov-17–Jan-18(2)

LNA

Oct-17

Oct-17 Sep-17

Sep-17(1)

LNA PFG BDB

LNA PFG BDB

Jun-18

Jun-18

Government of National Accord

LNA

HO

Wi

AG

As Sarah

Nafoora

House of Representatives

SCM LNA

US Airstrikes vs. ISIS/AQ ISIS Activity

Folgore Parachute Brigade:

Mediacal Hospital M

Red Wadi


27

Sanctions accelerating Venezuela’s production decline

Source: for all: IEA, EIA, MEES, OPEC, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Revenues remain depressed, as production

declines have offset higher prices

We expect crude production to fall below 1.0

mb/d in 2018 and 2019, from 1.4 mb/d now

Small uptick in recent export loadings PDVSA controls the lion’s share of production

(kb/d)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500 Production (lhs, kb/d)

Consumption (lhs, kb/d)

Revenues (rhs, $bn)

Company 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Shell 10 20 20 20 20 20 20

Chevron 80 80 90 90 90 90 80

Repsol 20 30 30 30 20 30 30

CNPC 10 20 20 20 20 30 30

PetroChina 20 20 20 30 30 30 30

Total 40 40 40 40 40 40 30

Rosneft 40 40 50 60 60 60 70

Gazprom 100 90 90 80 90 60 50

Others 70 80 80 110 110 130 130

PDVSA 2,220 2,260 2,210 2,150 2,050 2,060 1,880

12 September 2018

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18

Venezuela Production and Exports by Destination

China US India

Caribbean Other Total Exports

Total Production


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18

Venezuela Production and Exports (Jan 2016-Aug 2018), kb/d

Crude exports Upgraded crude exports Production Source: Petro-logistics, Barclays Research

28

Source:: MEES, IEA, Barclays Research

Despite Venezuelan output falling below 1 mb/d and Saudi Arabia increasing to no more than 10.6

mb/d, the market still flips to slight surplus

OPEC production assumptions behind current outlook

12 September 2018


A nnual A nnual A nnual

B arc lay s 2017 Change Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 2018 Change Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 2019 Change

Algeria 1.05 -0.06 1.01 1.08 1.10 1.10 1.07 0.03 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 -0.07

Angola 1.64 -0.07 1.55 1.50 1.56 1.67 1.57 -0.07 1.73 1.75 1.70 1.60 1.69 0.12

Ecuador 0.53 -0.02 0.52 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.54 0.01 0.55 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.53 -0.01

Equatorial Guinea 0.13 -0.02 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.11 -0.01 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.11 -0.00

Gabon 0.20 -0.03 0.21 0.18 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.01

Iraq 4.47 0.06 4.45 4.55 4.65 4.69 4.59 0.11 4.64 4.61 4.68 4.76 4.67 0.09

Iran 3.80 0.25 3.81 4.03 3.82 3.68 3.84 0.04 3.40 3.30 3.29 3.28 3.32 -0.52

Kuwait 2.71 -0.18 2.70 2.71 2.90 2.90 2.80 0.10 2.91 2.92 2.93 2.95 2.93 0.13

Libya 0.83 0.44 1.01 0.93 0.50 0.65 0.77 -0.06 0.78 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.03

Nigeria 1.53 0.06 1.66 1.49 1.62 1.68 1.61 0.09 1.53 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.66 0.05

Saudi Arabia 9.96 -0.46 9.95 10.13 10.60 10.40 10.27 0.31 10.40 10.30 10.53 10.38 10.40 0.13

Qatar 0.61 -0.04 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.68 0.64 0.03 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.04

UAE 2.93 -0.12 2.84 2.92 3.10 3.10 2.99 0.06 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.15 3.11 0.12

Venezuela 1.97 -0.27 1.54 1.37 1.00 0.90 1.20 -0.76 0.88 0.85 0.90 0.90 0.88 -0.32

Neutral Zone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.22 0.08 0.08

OPEC Crude 32.35 -0.46 31.99 32.15 32.38 32.33 32.21 -0.13 31.91 31.88 32.26 32.27 32.08 -0.14

OPEC Non-Crude 6.87 0.09 6.84 6.86 7.00 7.07 6.94 0.07 7.18 7.20 7.19 7.18 7.19 0.24

OPEC Total Liquids 39.22 -0.37 38.90 38.84 39.38 39.40 39.13 -0.08 39.09 39.08 39.45 39.45 39.27 0.13

Russia 11.36 0.02 11.34 11.35 11.35 11.37 11.35 -0.01 11.49 11.56 11.61 11.68 11.59 0.23

Swing Suppliers* 26.95 -0.74 26.84 27.11 27.95 27.77 27.42 0.46 27.90 27.88 28.18 28.16 28.03 0.61

29

Global oil demand growth: A rising tide

Source: IEA, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

World total products demand y/y change by region (mb/d)

• Robust outlook for global economic activity supporting oil demand. We forecast global oil

demand growth to be 1.4 mb/d both his year and the next.

• Elasticity higher, due to structural changes in energy commodity pricing in non-OECD

countries.

• Energy intensity of global GDP growth has also been declining over the years.

12 September 2018


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1Q2014 3Q2014 1Q2015 3Q2015 1Q2016 3Q2016 1Q2017 3Q2017 1Q2018 3Q2018

OECD China Other Asia Latin America and FSU Middle East and Africa Other

30

The implementation of IMO regulation significantly disturbs the balance in global petroleum fuel markets in 2020

Note: Assumes $75/b Brent in 2020. All product prices in $/b for NWE. Sweet-Sour spread in the above example is Bonny light vs Urals. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Depending on how much HSFO prices drop, light product cracks and sulphur spreads

could blow out materially.

• Residual fuel oil prices likely to drop significantly. Extent depends on how quickly and at what

price levels displaced fuel is absorbed in power generation and industrial heating.

• Assuming that simple hydroskimming refineries in the North-West Europe are just profitable to

meet incremental demand, gasoline and diesel prices in the region could move higher by as

much as 13% and 20%.

• In addition, the sweet-sour crude oil spread could also blow out by $5 to $15 per barrel.

12 September 2018


Scenario HSFO/Brent ratio HSFO Price Diesel Price Gasoline Price Diesel-HSFO spread Sweet-Sour spread

10-year avg. 0.8 60 87 83 27 2.9

10 pp lower HSFO

spread0.7 53 96 88 43 10.6

IMO effect -0.1 -7 9 5 16 7.8

20 pp lower HSFO

spread0.6 45 100 92 55 14.0

IMO effect -0.2 -15 13 8 28 11.2

30 pp lower HSFO

spread0.5 38 104 94 67 17.3

IMO effect -0.3 -23 17 11 40 14.4

31

Source: Barclays Research

12 September 2018

EV adoption rising exponentially

We expect global EV stock to reach 55mn

units by 2025

This offsets more than 1 mb/d of oil demand

growth



0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Global EV stock (millions)

EVs share of global car fleet (rhs)

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

EV oil demand offset (kb/d)

EV Impact as % of oil demand (rhs)

32

Note: Per-capita ethylene and propylene consumption by country. Source: Nexant, Barclays Research

12 September 2018

Growing petrochemical demand to drive growth in LPG and naphtha consumption

LPG and naphtha are primarily used as

petrochemical feedstock

Growing plastics consumption in emerging

markets to drive growth in LPG and naphtha



Petchem

53%

Residential

24%

Process

Heating

6%

Transport

5%

Other

12%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

China EU US

33

• Low demand scenario of 4.1% CAGR (vs

5.6% in the base case).

• 23% share of EVs/total car sales, 10pp

higher than our base case assumption of

13%.

• 2025 global oil demand would be 3.2

mb/d below the base case.

• Economic growth risks arise from

escalating trade war concerns between

the US and China and a potentially

significant knock-on effect of sharply

higher shipping, airline transit, and

agricultural costs, due to IMO regulations

that are set to kick in in 2020.

If global economic growth disappoints, demand growth could be significantly below our base case

Source: IEA, WIND , Bloomberg, Barclays Research

12 September 2018


0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

95

97

99

101

103

105

107

109

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Base case y/y change (mb/d, rhs)

Low demand growth scenario y/y change (mb/d, rhs)

Base case demand (mb/d)

Low demand growth scenario demand (mb/d)

3.2 mb/d

34

35

Analyst Certifications and Important Disclosures Analyst Certification(s)

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