commodities weekly tracker, 15th april 2013

7/28/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 15th April 2013

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Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker


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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

Returns

Non Agri Commodities Currencies

Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

Gold

Silver

Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

Chana

Black Pepper Turmeric

Jeera

Soybean

Refine Soy Oil & CPO

Sugar

Kapas

Monday | April 15, 2013


3/20

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 15, 2013

0.90.9

0.4

0.1

(0.2)

(0.5) (0.5)

(1.4)(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0Currencies Weekly Performance


4/20


2.9

0.1

(0.2)(1.0) (1.1)

(1.5) (1.8)

(5.3)

(6.5)(6.7)

(5.7)

(4.7)

(3.7)

(2.7)

(1.7)

(0.7)

0.3

1.3

2.3

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


5/20

*Weekly Performance for April contract



6/20


GoldWeekly Price Performance

Spot gold prices declined around 6.5 percent in the last week. The yellow metal

touched a weekly low of $1,477.0/oz and closed at $1478.35/oz in the last

trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices fell by 3.8 percent in prior week and closed at

Rs.28180/10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs.28,100/10 gms in the last

week.

ETF Performance

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-

traded fund, declined by 3.88 percent to 1,158.56 tonnes as on 12th April 2013

from previous level of 1,205.31 tonnes as on 5th April 2013.

Factors that influenced downside in gold prices Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in

demand for the safe haven from investors. Further, decline in jobless claims

data from the US also exerted downside pressure on the prices.

However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of weakness

in the DX coupled with cut in global economic growth from International

Monetary Fund (IMF).

Outlook

In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note as aresult of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with

strength in the DX. Further, expectations that Cyprus will sell around 14 tonnes

of gold and other European nations may also sell its gold will act as a negative

factor for the prices. Additionally, forecast of negative economic data from US

and Euro Zone will exert downside pressure on the prices. Depreciation in

Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on MCX

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold : Support 1,385/1,340 Resistance 1,480/1517. (CMP: $1407.15)

Sell MCX Gold June at 27700-27750, SL-28600 Target -25900. (CMP: Rs.26,430)

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

31,500

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

84.0

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Sp ot Gol d -$ /oz US Dol lar In de x


7/20


SilverWeekly Price Performance

Spot silver declined 5.3 percent in the last week. The white metal prices

touched a weekly low of $25.74/oz and closed at $25.85/oz in last trading

session of the week.

On the domestic front, prices decreased by 4 percent as a result of

appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.49,430/kg after on Friday

after touching a low of Rs.49,000/kg in the last week.

ETF Performance

Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed

exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged at 10,497.59 tonnes as on

12th April 2013.

Factors that influenced downside in silver prices Fall in gold prices

Downside in the base metals.

However, weakness in the DX coupled with favorable economic data from

Euro Zone and US cushioned sharp fall in the prices.

Outlook In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues

from fall in the gold prices coupled with downside in base metals complex.

Additionally, strength in the DX will exert more downside pressure on the

prices.

Further, expectations of negative economic data from US and Euro Zone

will exert downside pressure on the prices.

In the domestic markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee will cushion

sharp fall on the prices on the MCX.


Spot Silver: Support 22.80/21.80 Resistance 25.05/26.55. (CMP:23.75)

Sell MCX Silver May at 48500-48600, SL-50100 Target -43050.

(CMP:44816)

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

49,000

51,000

53,000

55,000

57,000

59,000

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Silver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

84.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Sil ve r -$ /oz US Dol lar Inde x


8/20


CopperWeekly Price Performance

Copper prices gained marginally by 0.1 percent in the previous week. The red

metal a weekly high of $7,645.25/tonne and closed at $7428.75/tonne in the last

trading session of the week.

On the domestic front, prices dropped by 0.4 as a result of appreciation in the

Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 404.65/kg on Friday after touching a low of

Rs.402.90/kg in the last week.

Copper Inventories

LME copper inventories gained around 2.42 percent in the last week and stood at

593,650 tonnes as on 12th April, 2013 as against 579,600 tonnes as on 5th April,

2013.

Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 5.6percent and stood at 228,290 tonnes for the week ending on 12th April, 2013.

Factors that influenced upside in the copper prices

Optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further,

favorable economic data from China and positive industrial production data from

Euro Zone supported an upside in the prices

However, rise in LME inventories by 2.4 percent, decline in US retail sales and

consumer sentiments along with cut in global economic growth forecast capped

sharp gains in the prices.

Outlook

Copper prices are expected to trade on a negative note on the back of rising

inventories, negative data from China along with weak global market sentiments.

Further, expectations of negative economic data from US and Euro Zone coupled

with strength in the DX will act as a negative factor for the prices.

Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will restrict sharp fall in the prices on the MCX.


LME Copper: Support 7070/6950 Resistance 7380/7530. (CMP: $7154.0)

Sell MCX Copper April at 401-403. SL-412 Target -385. (CMP:389.55)

402

412

422

432

442

452

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

318,000

368,000

418,000

468,000

518,000

568,000

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


9/20


Crude OilWeekly Price Performance On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined around 1.5 percent.

On the domestic bourses, prices fell by 1.5 percent as a result of appreciation

in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4984/bbl on Friday after touching a low ofRs.4,941/bbl in the last week.

US Energy Department Facts and Figures As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories

increased less than expected by 0.3 million barrels to 388.90 million barrels forthe week ending on 5th April 2013.

Gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels to 222.40 million barrels andwhereas distillate stockpiles dropped by 0.2 million barrels to 112.80 millionbarrels for the last week.

Factors that influenced downside in crude oil prices Cut in the demand forecast from IEA for the current year coupled with rise in

Saudi Arabias crude oil production. Additionally, estimates of drop in theglobal economic growth from IMF exerted downside pressure on the prices.

However, sharp downside in the oil prices was cushioned on account of rise inrisk appetite in the global markets coupled with decline in US jobless claimsdata.

Weakness in the DX also prevented sharp fall in the prices.

Outlook

We expect crude oil prices to trade on negative note on the back of rise in riskaversion in the global market sentiments coupled with stronger DX.

Further, cut in demand forecast by IEA and OPEC, unfavorable economic datafrom China along with forecast for decline in economic growth by IMF willexert downside pressure on the prices.

Depreciation in the Rupee will act as a positive factor for prices on the MCX.

Weekly Technical Levels Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 87.40/85.20 Resistance 90.60/91.95 (CMP:89.08)

Sell MCX Crude Apr at 4940-4960 SL-5051 Target -4775.(CMP:4864)

90.0

91.0

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

4,900

4,950

5,000

5,050

5,100

5,150

5,200

5,250

5,300

5,350

5,400

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

MCX crude o il (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oi l ($ /bbl)

361.3

360.3

363.1

369.1

371.7

372.2

376.4

377.53

381.4

384

382.7

385.9

388.6 388.9

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)


10/20


DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.2 percent in the last week.

The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.5 percent on weekly basis.

Factors that influenced downside movement in the DX

Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the

low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone

coupled with expectations of stimulus measures from major global central bankers

exerted downside pressure on the currency.

Further, US equities traded on a positive note which also acted as a negative factor for

the DX.

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

Countrys industrial production and CPI data which came on a favorable note as againstthe expectations.

Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with selling dollars from

exporters and banks also supported an upside in the currency.

However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of outflow of foreign

funds and dollar demand from importers.

FII Inflows

For the month of April 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.42.0 crores ($7.13 million) as on

12th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.55,580.40 crores

($10,302.90 million) till 12th April 2013.Outlook

We expect Indian Rupee to depreciate in the current week on back of weak global

market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the

currency will be cushioned as a result of countrys wholesale price index (WPI) data

coming on a favorable note.


USD/INR MCX March Support 54.35/53.95 Resistance 55.20/55.60 (CMP: 54.63)

US Dollar Index: Support 81.80/81.40 Resistance 82.80/83.20 (CMP: 82.28)

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.5

55.0

55.5

56.0

$/INR - Spot

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

US Dollar Index


11/20


EuroWeekly Price Performance

The Euro appreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a high

of 1.3138 in the last week and closed at 1.3111 against dollar on Friday.

Factors that influenced upside movement in the Euro

Optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX.

Further, favorable industrial production from Euro Zone, German and French

supported an upside in the currency.

However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of decline in

investors confidence.

News

German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.2 percent in March as against

a rise of 0.1 percent in February. European Industrial Production increased by

0.4 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.6 percent a month ago.

French Industrial Production increased by 0.7 percent in February as against a

decline of 0.8 percent a month ago. Italian Industrial Production declined by 0.8

percent in February from rise of 1 percent in prior month.

German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 17.1 billion Euros in February as

against earlier surplus of 15.6 billion Euros a month ago.

European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -17.3-mark in April as against a

decline of 10.6-level in March. German Industrial Production increased by 0.5

percent in the month of February.

Outlook

We expect the Euro to trade on negative note on the back of expectations of

unfavorable economic data from the country. Further, rise in risk aversion in the

global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX will exert downside

pressure on the currency.


EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2950/1.2850 Resistance 1.320/1.335 (CMP: 1.3075)

1.275

1.285

1.295

1.305

1.315

1.325

1.335

1.345

1.355

1.365

Euro/$ - Spot

69.0

69.5

70.0

70.5

71.0

71.5

72.0

72.5

73.0

EURO/INR - Spot


12/20

Chana


Weekly Price Performance

Chana futures continued with its upward trend on account of strong demand

from the stockists. However, arrival pressure capped sharp upside in the prices.

On a weekly basis, Chana spot as well as futures settled 2.7% and 3.4% higher.

Stockist building inventories

Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks as

stockiest have started building inventories to meet the demand for the entire

season.

Also, reports that output might be lower compared to the agriculture ministers

estimates of 8.57 mn tn supported an upside in the prices.

Chana output estimated at 8.5 mn tn

There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of

higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11

record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. However,

according to market sources, output may revised marginally lower due to

unfavorable weather conditions.

Ban on exports of Pulses extended till March 31, 2014

The government has extended ban on export of pulses till March 31, 2014.

According to DGFT, there is an exception with export of Kabuli chana, organic

pulses and lentils being allowed up to a ceiling of 10,000 tonnes per annum.Chana imports declined in the month of February 2013

According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46

lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh tn during the previous month.

Outlook

Chana prices may continue to trade with upward bias . However, sharp upside in

the prices will be cushion as demand will decline at lower levels.

Weekly Strategy

Buy NCDEX Chana May between 3610-3650, SL -3520, Target - 3790 / 3810


13/20

Black Pepper

Source: Reuters & Angel Research



Pepper Futures traded on a mixed note last week. Low stocks in the domestic

markets as well as in the exchange accredited warehouses supported prices.Good demand for the Kerala crop also supported prices at lower levels. However,

increasing arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand

pressurized prices at higher levels.

The Spot settled 0.63% lower while the May Futures settled 0.07% higher w-o-w.

Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,900/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is

quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn

Averages daily arrivals stood at 39 tn while offtakes stood at 39 tn last week.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and

carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn.

India Apr-Jan 2013 pepper exports stood at 11,500 tn, lower by 48%. (Source Factiva)

Global updates

Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in

2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production

from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of

the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days.

Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.

Outlook

Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Good interstate

demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may support the prices.

Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited

warehouses may also support prices. However, higher arrivals of the Karnataka

crop may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Weekly Strategy NCDEX Pepper May Trend Sideways. S2- 34500, S1- 35000, R1- 35775, R2- 36200.

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.


14/20

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Turmeric Futures traded on a positive note last week as good overseas demand as

well as good demand from interstate buyers supported prices at lower levels.

Lower output expectations for 2012-13 crop on the back of poor sowing also

supported the prices. However, weak exports data coupled with arrival pressure

of the new crop pressurized prices. Higher carryover stocks also pressurized the

prices. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. Spot settled 0.29% lower while the

May Futures settled 3.58% higher w-o-w.

Weak exports data

Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 was lower by 4% at 66,550 tn.(Source Factiva)

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last

year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported

at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

Outlook

Turmeric is expected to trade on a positive note this week on the back of good

demand from the overseas as well as the domestic markets. Lower production

estimates coupled with arrivals of good quality crop may also support prices at

lower levels. However, higher supplies coupled with huge carryover stocks may

also keep prices under check.

Weekly Strategy

Buy NCDEX Turmeric May between 7050-7100, SL -6850, Target - 7400 / 7450




15/20

Jeera

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Jeera traded with a positive bias last week as overseas demand coupled with

higher exports data supported the prices. However, higher arrivals of the new

crop capped sharp upside in the prices. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244

lk ha till Jan 2013. Last 3 years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported

at around 5-6 lk bags.

The as well as the May Futures settled 1.19 and 0.4% higher w-o-w.

Second consecutive year of higher output

Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par

with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices

and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports

Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, higher by 86%. (Source Factiva)

Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.

International Scenario

According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f).

Outlook

Jeera is expected to trade higher this week on the back of strong overseas

demand. Declining of arrivals from higher level may also support prices. However,

improvement in arrivals of the new crop may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Weekly Levels Buy NCDEX Jeera May between 13050-13100, SL -12500, Target - 13900 / 14000




16/20

Soybean


Weekly price performance

Soybean futures which traded on a positive note since past few weeks corrected

from higher levels on account of weak meal export demand. On contrary, CBOT

soybean recovered 3.7% w-o-w after a significant fall in the past few weeks.

India's soy meal Exports Fall by 12 Percent during FY12-13 SOPA

The annual soy meal exports in the FY 2012-2013 (April-March) were 34,33,916.546

tons, decreased by 12.28 percent from 39,14,683.205 tons a year ago.

India soy meal exporters renegotiate deals with Iran

Indian soy meal suppliers are renegotiating deals with Iranian buyers for April and

May shipments as demand for Indian soy meal has slowed significantly due to the

higher prices, and buyers are seeking alternative South American supplies.

Indias soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, down 36 percentfrom a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves.

USDA raised soybean end stocks estimates

According USDA s monthly demand supply report released last week Global

soybean ending stocks are projected at 62.6 million tons, up 2.4 million as gains in

Brazil and Argentina more than offset lower stocks in China.

Bad weather threatening Argentine soybean crop -Oil World

Private analytics firm Informa Economics raised its estimate for Argentina's 2012/13

crop to 52 million tonnes, from 51 million previously, but lowered its figure forBrazil's soy crop to 83.25 million tonnes, from 84.5 million last month.

Outlook

Weak soy meal exports from India amid uncompetitive quotes may exert downside

pressure on the domestic soybean prices. However, if international markets recover

on Argentina crop concerns, then Indian exports may turn competitive thereby

pushing prices on the higher side.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX Soybean Trend sideways: Support 3730/3590 & Resistance-3850/4000


17/20

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

Edible oil complex witnessed mixed trend last week with soy oil remaining

positive and Crude palm oil plunging taking cues from KLCE. CPO prices atNCDEX and KLCE settled 1.3% lower each on account of weak exports.

However, seasonally lower yield period of Malaysian palm oil and firm soy oil

restricted sharp fall. Soy oil settled 1.4% and 0.8% higher in NCDEX and CBOT

respectively during the last week.

Global Scenario

Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export

tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. The Southeast Asian

country calculated a reference price of 2,347.26 ringgit per tonne for crude

palm oil for May. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 15 inched down 4% to

648,275 tonnes from 675,210 tonnes shipped during March 1 to 15

Domestic Scenario

Indias imports of palm oil fell for a second straight month in March, as

domestic supply improved and purchases by the worlds biggest buyer

continued to suffer from an import levy imposed in January.

Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to

896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports.

Stockpiles of edible oil at ports fell nearly nine percent during March to

850,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1.

Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October

2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as

the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.

Strategy

NCDEX Soy Oil May- Trend Sideways Support- 692/684 Resistance- 703/715

Sell MCX CPO April between 464-468, SL -474, Target - 454 / 452


18/20

Sugar



After trading higher in the initial part of the week due to summer season demand,

sugar prices corrected towards the end of the week on account of profit taking.Higher supplies have offset the summer demand. NCDEX Sugar settled 0.6%

higher w-o-w.

Liffe sugar settled 3.5% higher w-o-w as rains in Brazil has slowed down the pace

of harvest of cane raising concerns over supplies in the coming days.

Indias 2012-13 sugar output seen at 24.6 mln T

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13. Sugar output in 2013-14

could decline to 22-23 mn tn due to drought situation in Maharashtra.

Food Ministry to notify sugar decontrol steps soon

CCEA on April 04, 2013, liberated the Rs. 80,000 crore sugar industries by

abolishing the monthly release mechanism and the obligation on mills to supply

levy sugar.

The Food Ministry is likely to notify soon its decision to give freedom to mills to

sell sugar in the open market.

Heavy rains slowed progress in Brazil Cane Belt

Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed early

progress of an expected record cane harvest.

Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season justnow starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area,

favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants.

Outlook

Sugar may consolidate at lower levels in the coming week. Supplies will continue

to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will

offset summer season demand and recovery in the international markets.

Strategy

NCDEX Sugar May :Support-2850/2800, Resistance- 2930/3020


19/20

Kapas/Cotton



Cotton futures in the domestic markets declined by 1.32% last week on expectations

government may release stocks from state reserves in order to augment supplies.

Expectatations of higher imports also exerted downside pressure on the markets.

ICE Cotton which continued with its downward trend on huge global inventories.

However, prices recovered towards the end as China Cotton Association said that it

will continue with its stockpiling policy this year. Prices settled 1.39% lower w-o-w.

Cotton imports may go up

Domestic prices are between Rs. 38,000 and Rs. 39,000 a candy now. If the price of

Indian cotton crosses Rs. 39,000 a candy, then international cotton will be cheaper

and it becomes viable for the mills to import more. Mills are already importing

medium and long staple cotton from Africa. (Source: Hindu Business Line)

Textile Ministry unable to decide on banning cotton export

The Textile Ministry is undecided on whether it should ban exports or release part of

the stocks held by the CCI to cool prices. exports is all set to cross the exportable

surplus of 80 lakh bales .

Global Cotton-Production Forecast Raised, Demand Cut at ICAC

Cotton production will drop to 23.47 mn tn in year starting Aug. 1. compared with

2012-13 output of 26.01 mn tn .Global consumption will reach 23.71 mn tn higher

than the 23.41 mn estimated for the 2012-2013 season.

China to stockpile new cotton, price steady

China will continue its controversial cotton stockpiling policy in 2013-14, a move that

will boost imports by the world's top consumer and underpin global prices.

Outlook

Cotton prices may decline in the early part of the week on expectations government

may offload stocks from state reserve coupled with expected higher imports.

However, prices my again bounce back as demand will emerge at lower level.

Strategy

Sell MCX Cotton April between 19000-19100, SL -19500, Target - 18400 / 18300


20/20

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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commodities weekly tracker, 15th april 2013

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