commodities weekly tracker 26th aug 2013

7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker 26th Aug 2013

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Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker


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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

Returns

Non Agri Commodities Currencies

Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

Gold

Silver

Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

Chana

Black Pepper Turmeric

Jeera

Soybean

Refine Soy Oil & CPO

Sugar

Kapas

Monday | August 26, 2013


3/22

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 26, 2013

0.50.3

0.1

(0.4) (0.5) (0.7)

(1.3)

(1.9)

(2.4) (2.6)(3.0)

(2.5)

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

Global Equities Performance (%)


4/22


2.9

2.5

2.1

1.3 1.3

0.4

0.1

(0.4)(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0Currencies Weekly Performance


5/22


3.4 3.2

1.5

(0.3)(0.8)

(0.9)(1.2)

(2.3) (2.4)(2.5)

(1.5)

(0.5)

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


6/22

*Weekly Performance for September contract

*Soybean, Cotton October contract

*Kapas- April 2014 Contract



7/22


GoldWeekly Price Performance

Spot gold prices gained around 1.5 percent last week on the back of physical demand

and rise in SPDR holdings The metal closed the trade at $1396.35/oz on Friday after touching a weekly high of

$1399.71/oz.

Gains on the MCX last week were much higher than spot gold gaining around 3.7

percent during the prior week due to depreciation in the Rupee.

Prices on the MCX touched a high of Rs.31,950/10gm and closed at same levels on

Friday.

On a month-on-month basis the commodity is up around 13 percent but year-to-date,

3.4 percent gains have been seen after recording losses for the last week , while in

dollar terms gold is down around 16.6 percent year-to-date.

SPDR Gold Holdings

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust witnessed an 0.5 percent increase by 4.81 metric

tonnes to 920.13 tonnes on 23rdAugust13.

On the month till date, holdings have fallen marginally around 0.1 percent and on a

year till date basis, holdings are still in negative territory with a decline of more than

31 percent.

Physical demand rose in India and China for the second quarter

Bullion rebounded after reaching a 34 month low in June as demand for jewellary,bars and coins soared from India, China to Turkey.

According to WGC (World Gold Council), Consumer demand in India soared 71

percent in the second quarter, while in China it jumped 87 percent during the same

period.

The metal has declined around 17 percent this year.

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

1,150

1,250

1,350

1,450

1,550

1,650

Spot Gold Vs Dollar Index

Spot Go ld -$/oz US D ol lar Index


8/22


Gold

Gold jewellery exports fall 70 percent in July- GJEPC

The Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) said that the exports of gold have reduced by 70 percent in July due to non availability of

raw material , whereas silver exports have doubled during the same period

The total gems and jewellery exports fell 17 percent to $2.49 bill ion, with gold exports falling to $441 million from $1.5 billion a year ago

Expectations of restart of gold imports by next week are doing rounds in the market.

On the other hand, Silver jewellery exports surged 184 percent to $109.69 million .

Outlook

Gold prices are expected to trade on a positive note in this week on the back of rise in physical demand coupled with increase in SPDR holdings.

Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices.

Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments will act as a positive factor.

In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will lead to positive movement in prices on the MCX.

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold : Support $1383/$1366 Resistance $1414/$1432 (CMP: $1397.10)

Buy MCX Gold October between 31350-31300 SL-30900, Target -32,400. (CMP: Rs.31785)


9/22


SilverWeekly Price Performance

Spot Silver prices gained around 3.2 percent in the last week, taking cues

from rise in gold prices.

The white metal gained 5 percent on the MCX and touched a weekly high of

Rs.53620/kg on Friday before closing at Rs.53469/kg.

Positive economic indicators from the Euro Zone, UK and the US have revived

hopes of recovery in the advanced economies.

ETF Performance

The iShares Silver Trust rose last week by 0.3 percent to 10,555.70 tonnes as

on 23rd August 2013.

On a year-to-date basis, holdings have gained around 4.6 percent while on a

monthly basis the holdings have jumped by more than 1 percent.Factor affecting the silver prices

Rise in gold prices.

Increase in ETF holdings.

Favorable economic data from major global economies.

Outlook

A positive trend is expected in case of silver during the week and factors like

increase in ETF holdings and overall supportive sentiments towards precious

metals will be positive.

In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation will be an additional supportive

factor.


Spot Silver: Support $23.43 /$22.77 Resistance $24.60/$25.30. (CMP:$23.95)

Buy MCX Silver September between 52,200-52,100, SL-51,400, Target -

55,100. (CMP: Rs.53,532)

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

38,500

43,500

48,500

53,500

58,500

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

M CX- Near M on th S ilver Fut ur es - R s/ kg Comex Si lver Fut ur es - $/ oz

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Inde x

Spo t Si lve r -$ /o z US D ol lar Ind ex


10/22


CopperWeekly Price Performance

Base metals traded on a negative note last week with a mixed set of factors providing

direction to prices. Despite positive economic data from the US, Euro zone, UK and

China over the week, mixed set of sentiments towards the end of the week, cappedsharp decline in prices.

Copper prices touched a weekly low of $7227/tonne in the last week and closed the

week at $7353/tonne with losses of 0.3 percent.

On the MCX, the near-month copper contract rose by more than 2 percent due to

Rupee depreciation and touched a high of Rs 483.2/kg in the last week.

Month-to-date, copper prices on the LME and the MCX are up by 7 percent and 13

percent respectively. Gains on the MCX are higher mainly due to the weakness in the

Rupee.

Copper Inventories

On the LME last week, copper inventories declined around 3.4 percent to 564,225

tonnes as on 23rd August 2013 from 584,075 tonnes in prior week.

Shanghai Copper inventories fell around 3.6 percent to 156,100 tonnes for the week

ending on 23rd August 2013.

Factors that led to downside in Copper prices

Weak market sentiments and a stronger DX.

However, positive economic data from major economies cushioned sharp fall.

Outlook

Copper prices are expected to trade on a positive note during the week on the back of

expectations of rise in US GDP coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, global

refined copper production showed a deficit of 17000 tonnes in May for the first time

after seven months, will also support an upside. The Rupee factor will be additionally

supportive to prices in the Indian markets,.


LME Copper: Support $7260/$7130 Resistance $7460/$7540. (CMP: $7353)

Buy MCX Copper August between 473-471, SL-468, Target -485. (CMP: Rs 475.05)

365

375

385

395

405

415

425

435

445

455

465

6,700

6,900

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,1008,300

LME and MCX Copper Price Pe rformance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

6,700

6,900

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

318,000

368,000

418,000

468,000

518,000

568,000

618,000

668,000

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


11/22


Crude Oil

Weekly Price Performance

In the last week, Nymex crude oil prices declined by 1 percent, with prices testing a low

of $103.5/bbl on the back of restart in Libyas oil production. However, sharp declineswere cushioned on the back of positive economic data from major global economies.

On the MCX, near month crude oil contract gained 3 percent as a result of Rupee

depreciation and touched a high of Rs.6927/bbl in the last week.

Year-to-date, oil prices are up by 16 percent and on the MCX the commodity is up by

whopping 37 percent. The difference in gains in prices is mainly on the back of sharp

depreciation in the Rupee.

Increase in Libyan Oil output to seen due to resumption of Brega exports

Libya said it will resume oil exports from Brega, one of four ports, where it had declared

force majeure, as protests had shut the facility since July end. The nation is currently pumping 670,000 barrels of crude a day, an Oil Ministry official

said today.

Brega may add some 90,000 barrels a day to Libyas exports that are running at 500,000

barrels a day.

Outlook

Crude Oil prices this week are expected to trade higher on the back of estimates of rise

in US GDP ,which in turn will boost sentiments for increase in demand for the

commodity.

Further, a weaker DX and declining trend in crude oil inventories will be supportive.

However, sharp upside will be capped on account of restart ofLibyas oil output.

Rupee depreciation will lead to positive movement in prices on the MCX.


Nymex Crude Oil: Support: $105.70/$104.10 Resistance $108.10/110.10. (CMP:$106.32)

Buy MCX Crude September between 6790-6780, SL-6730, Target -6960. (CMP:Rs 6760)

86.0

90.0

94.0

98.0

102.0

106.0

110.0

114.0

4,700

5,200

5,700

6,200

6,700

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

361.3

360.3

363.1369.1

371.7

372.2

376.4

377.53

381.4

384

382.7

385.9

388.6 388.9

387.6

388.6

395.3 395.5

394.9 394.6

397.6

391.3

393.8

394.1

394.1

383.8

373.9

367

364.2

364.6

363.3 360.5

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

395

400

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)


12/22


Rupee and Dollar IndexWeekly Price Performance

On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated around 3 percent mainly due to concerns

over the CAD and economic growth of the country along with strength in the DX.

Outflows of foreign funds acted as a negative factor. The currency touched a weekly

low of 65.56 and closed at 63.19 on Friday.

The Dollar Index (DX) appreciated around 0.2 percent due to statement from Federal

Reserve Chairman and its members that QE tapering is possible by end of the year. The

DX touched a weekly high of 81.95 and closed at 81.39 on Friday.

For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1601.20 crores ($262.53

million) as on 22nd August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at

Rs.67693.50 crores ($12748.30 million) till 22nd August 2013.

Rupee continued its freefall despite RBIs intervention

Rupee touched its lifetime low of 65.56 against the dollar despite RBIs continuous

intervention to defend the falling Rupee.

The RBI started the week by selling 110 billion Rupees of cash management bills on

Monday as part of its efforts to prevent the Rupee from falling further, However this

could not provide respite to fall in the Rupee.

The Central Bank however has continued its efforts by buying back 78 percent of 8000

crore buyback target on Friday.

RBIs and government failed attempts draw flak from foreign brokerages; downgrade India

JP Morgan and Citigroup, both have downgraded Indian equities after the combined

measures by the Government and RBI failed to arrest the fall in Rupee.

FIIs have lost confidence in the Indian markets and that can be seen by their $3 billion

pullout since June.

53.0

54.0

55.0

56.0

57.0

58.0

59.0

60.0

61.0

62.0

$/INR - Spot

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

US Dollar Index


13/22


Measures taken by the RBI

The Central Bank increased the Foreign Direct Investment cap in Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARC) to 74 percent from 49 percent with a

rider that no sponsor may hold more than 50 percent of the shareholding in an ARC either by way of FDI or by routing through an FIIs.

Ban on duty free imports of flat-screen TVs with effect from 26th August 2013.

Reduction in remittances made by individuals to $75,000 from $200,000 per financial year and ban in purchase of property outside India.

Reduction in amount which Indian companies can invest overseas without seeking approval from 400 percent to 100 percent of their net worth.

Comments by FM last week

The Finance minister clarified on limitations in overseas investments by saying that there is no intention to introduce capital control either by RBI

or the government and assured that the measures would be revisited as stability returns.

As the Rupee breached 65 mark this week, P Chidambaram addressed a press conference on Friday asserting that there is no reason to panic and

assured stability following the measures taken by the government and the RBI.

Outlook

Concerns over the Indian economy continue to loom and this factor is expected to lead to further depreciation in the Rupee.

Further, forecast for decline in countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q2 of 2013 will exert more downside pressure on the currency.

While any measures taken by RBI to reduce the CAD and curb depreciation in the Rupee wil l cushion sharp fall in the currency.

Expectations of rise in US GDP data will exert downside pressure on the DX in this week.


Dollar Index: Support 80.80/80.00 Resistance 81.90/82.40 (CMP: 81.38)

USD-INR August Contract: Support 62.50/60.80 Resistance 66.00/67.80 (CMP: 64.41)

Rupee and Dollar Index


14/22


EuroWeekly Price Performance

The euro gained around 0.3 percent in the last week due to favorable

manufacturing data from the region. The currency touched a weekly high of 1.3452 and closed at 1.3381 on Friday.

However, sharp gains were capped due to strength in the DX along with weak

global market sentiments.

Flash manufacturing as well as Services PMI crossed the 50-mark, thus showing

signs of expansion in the Euro Zone .

Mixed Economic data from the Euro Zone

German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 52-mark in the month of August from

50.7-level in July whereas German Flash Services PMI increased from 51.3-level

in July to 52.4-mark in August. However, German PPI declined by 0.1 percent inthe month of July.

French Flash Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 49.7-mark in August.

French Flash Services PMI declined to 47.7-level in August from 48.6-mark in

July.

Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.3-mark in August from 50.3-level in

July and Flash Services PMI rose marginally to 51-level in August from 49.8-mark

in July.

Outlook

The Euro is expected to trade on a positive note on the back of forecast for

positive economic indicators from the Euro Zone.

Further, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX will be

supportive for the currency.


EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.3300/1.3219 Resistance 1.3457/1.3533. (CMP:

1.3379)

1.275

1.285

1.295

1.305

1.315

1.325

1.335

1.345

1.355

1.365

Euro/$ - Spot

69.0

71.0

73.0

75.0

77.0

79.0

81.0

EURO/INR - Spot


15/22

Chana



Chana futures remained in green for second straight week on account of rising

demand amid series of festivals ahead. Reports of crop damages due to heavy

rains in kharif pulses growing states also supported prices last week.

Chana August futures settled marginally lower by 6 percent w-o-w.

Withdrawal of special margin on short side

As per a circular by NCDEX dated August 21 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the

Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in Chana with effect from

beginning of day Friday, August 23, 2013. After the withdrawal, total margin on

Chana now stands at 7.2 percent on both short and long side.

Pulses output heading for second year of bumper output

As on 23rd August 2013, Pulses sowing is up 16.8 percent at 99.63 lakh ha.Increase in acreage under kharif pulses this year and above average monsoon

has raised hopes of bumper Pulses output for second straight year in row.

Although, incessant rains during the initial week of the month may damage

standing crop to some extent, but still output may stand above last years

levels.

Chana output estimated at record Fourth Advance Estimates 2012-13

Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain

production last week wherein it pegged Chana significantly higher at record 8.8

mn tn in the current season 2012-13. compared with 7.5 mn tn.

According to estimates released on 22nd July 2013, Total pulses output for

2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn.

Outlook

Chana prices are expected to recover on expectations of good demand amid

festive season. However, prices may witness profit booking in the later part of

the week as supplies are sufficient to cater the festive season demand.

Weekly Strategy

Buy NCDEX Chana Sep between 3050 3040, SL 2870, Target 3300


16/22

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Turmeric Futures traded on a positive note last week on reports of fresh overseas

demand coming in at lower levels. also, domestic demand witnessed some

improvement ahead of the upcoming festival. However, huge carryover stocks

coupled with good sowing pressurized prices in the spot markets.

The spot settled 0.23% lower while the Futures settled and 6.08% higher w-o-w.

Sowing of Turmeric for the 2013-14 season

The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 21/08/2013 is reported at 0.46

lakh ha against 0.49 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.62 lakh ha. Normal

sowing for the season is 0.68 lakh hectares.

Imposition of Margins on the short side

The regulator has increased margins on the short side of all the running and yet tobe launched contracts w.e.f 6th August 2013.

Better than expected exports

Turmeric exports in 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn as against 79,500 tn in 2011-12.

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Turmeric production in 2012-13 was around 50% lower compared to 2011-12 and

is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported at

historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

Outlook Fresh overseas demand coupled with festive buying is likely to support Turmeric

prices in the coming days. Also, lower arrivals may tend further support to the

prices. However, huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing of turmeric this

season may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices at higher levels. Good rains

are also expected to increase the yield in the coming season. The progress of

monsoon needs to be watched carefully as this may affect the acreage as well as

the yield of the crop.

Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Turmeric Sep between 5020 5000, SL 4760, Target 5350/5450.


Source: Reuters & Angel Research.


17/22

Jeera

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Jeera futures traded on a mixed note with a positive bias last week supported by

overseas as well as domestic demand. Festive buying can be seen at lower levels.

However, higher arrivals as well as rains in the jeera belt of Gujarat capped gains.

The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.08% and 1% higher w-o-w.

Second consecutive year of higher output

Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 40-45 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher

than 40 lakh bags in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices

and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports

Jeera exports in 2012-13 stood at 79,900 tn, as against 45,500 tn last year.

The ongoing tensions in Syria and Turkey, coupled with output concerns has led to

supply concerns, and thus, exports have been diverted to India.

International Scenario

According to reports, production in Turkey is reported around 8,000-10,000

tonnes while production in Syria is expected to be lower, raising supply concerns

in the international markets.

Currently, 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,250-

2,300/tn (FOB Mumbai) while for Europe at $2,500-2,600/tn (CNF).Outlook

Overseas as well as domestic demand ahead of the upcoming festive season is

likely to support Jeera prices in the coming days and thus, Jeera may trade with a

positive bias this week However, good rains in the jeera sowing belt may

pressurize prices at it may increase prospects of higher sowing and a better yield

in the coming season. Higher production last year may also cap sharp gains and

pressurize prices at higher levels.

Weekly Levels

Buy NCDEX Jeera Sep between 13450 13430, SL 13200, Target 13850/13950.


Source: Reuters & Angel Research.


18/22

Soybean


Weekly price performance

Soybean futures traded on a bullish note last week due to heavy rains in the Soy

bean belt of Madhya Pradesh raising crop damage fears. Bullish international

markets also pushed up the prices. However, bumper output expectations cappedsharp gains. The spot as well as the Futures settled 4.31% and 11.04% higher w-o-w.

CBOT Soybean September futures also gained 6.39% last week.

Heavy rains to damage the standing crop

Incessant rains in the major soy growing belt of MP and Maharashtra over the past

few weeks have damaged the standing soy crop. IMD has forecast heavy rains in the

next few days, which may damage the crop further. The acreage is higher at record

186.6 lh, up by 15.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

Hot, dry weather to trim soybean yield

Soybean prices on the CBOT traded on a bullish note last week on the back of hotter

and drier weather in the US Midwest coupled with good export sales data. Lower

revision of soybean acreage and harvest estimate as per the USDAs monthly crop

report supported prices.

Soybean 2012-13 output revised up Fourth Advance Estimates

Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain

production earlier in July wherein it pegged Soybean output significantly higher at

record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-

12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higherthan 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year.

Outlook Soybean is expected to continue to trade higher this week on fears of crop damage

in India as well as the US due to weather conditions. Tight supplies coupled with

demand for the meal may also support prices. However, higher sowing thereby

prospects of higher output may cap sharp gains. It is important to track the monsoon

as heavy rains may damage the crop while favorable climate may boost the yield.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX Soybean Oct between 3420 3400, SL 3200, Target 3700


19/22

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

Soy oil as well as MCX CPO traded on a positive note and settled 2.27% and

4.19% higher respectively last week supported by festive demand and a weakRupee. A recovery in the international markets also supported the prices.

However, comfortable imported edible oil stocks capped sharp upside.

Prices on KLCE gained 2.2% on account of increasing exports demand.

However, expectations of increase in the output during the seasonally higher

yield period capped sharp gains.

Global Scenario

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during Aug 1-25 increased 7.1% to

1,162,884 tons tonnes from 1,162,884 tonnes shipped during July 1-25.

Indonesia has cut export tax on crude palm oil to 9% in September from10.5% in August.

Domestic Scenario

As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India,

imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, declined 6.13% to 889,493

tn in July, as weakness in the Rupee has made imports more expensive.

India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8 per cent in July to 213,853 tn

from 296, 230 tn in June as weakness in the Rupee has made imports

expensive..

Monthly soy oil imports rose 69% as local supplies are almost before the

soybean crop enters the markets.

Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Aug 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body

said, higher than 690,000 tn on July 1.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX Refined Soya Oil Sep between 690 685, SL 675, Target 710

Buy MCX CPO Aug between 535 530, SL 515, Target 560


20/22

Sugar



Sugar futures traded on a positive note last week and settled 0.46% higher on

account of increasing demand ahead of the festive season.

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar traded with a negative bias last week losing 4.01% and

2.77% respectively as prices in Brazil softened due to a weak Real and a stronger

Dollar. However, rains and cold weather in Brazil have raised fears of frost and

crop damage.

India's sugar output seen up next year

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 48.53

lakh ha as compared to 50.06 lakh ha last year.

Excess rains in current season have raised hopes of higher output in the coming

season that shall begin in October 2013. Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) hasprojected 2013-14 sugar production at 23.7 million tonne as against the domestic

requirement of 23.5 mill ion tonne.

Datagro to lower brazil crop forecast on Tuesday

Datagro is expected on Tuesday to lower its 2013/14 cane crush forecast for the

center-south as well as estimates for Brazil's sugar crop due to the July frost.

In April, Datagro cut its sugar production estimate to 35.4 million tonnes from

36.6 million tonnes in March. Still, New York sugar fell to their weakest in three

years in mid-July as Brazil was looking at a bumper sugar crop.

As per the international Sugar organization, global sugar markets may witness

fourth year of surplus with stocks estimated at 4.5 mn tn against 10.5 mn tn.

Outlook

Sugar may trade with positive bias in the coming weeks on expectations demand

to emerge at lower levels to meet the festive season requirement. Sharp upside

may however, be capped on account of ample supplies.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX Sugar Sep between 3013 3010, SL 2990, Target 3045


21/22

Cotton



MCX Cotton which remained in the positive territory for three consecutive weeks,

declined last week tracking weak international markets. However, weak rupeeand rising demand from yarn manufacturers limited the downside in the domestic

markets.

ICE cotton plunged 9.8% last week on hopes of ease in global supplies and better

than expected US crop progress numbers.

Cotton acreage slips below last years level

Despite an early progress in the cotton acreage, average slipped below last years

level for the first time this year as farmer shifted towards other lucrative oilseeds.

As per the ministry of agriculture, Cotton sowing is nearing its end and acreage is

0.2% lower as on 23rd August at 111.34 lakh ha. As per the Cotton Association of India, production is estimated to grow marginally

by 4.56 % to 37.2 mn bales during 2013-14 season beginning on Oct 1, 2013.

Cotton yarn export registration increases on Chinese demand

Resurgence in Chinese demand has spurred cotton yarn exports. Traders and

exporters had registered for a shipment of 488.15 mn kg between April and July

2013, compared with 314.19 mn kg in the corresponding period last year.

ICE Cotton witness biggest weekly loss last week

Weak US weekly export sales and worries over slowdown in demand led to longliquidation in prices last week, which was the biggest weekly loss since may 2012.

Outlook

Sentiments remain positive across domestic cotton markets on hopes of higher

demand for cotton to meet yarn export commitments. Weather conditions in the

coming weeks shall play a crucial role in determining cotton prices in the domestic

as well as global markets.

Strategy

Buy MCX Cotton Oct between 22000 - 21950, SL -21600, Target 22700


22/22

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

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commodities weekly tracker 26th aug 2013

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