commodities weekly tracker -6th august 2012

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  • 7/31/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker -6th August 2012

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    Commodities & Currencies

    Weekly Tracker

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

    Returns

    Non Agri Commodities Currencies

    Agri Commodities

    Non-Agri Commodities

    Gold

    Silver

    Copper Crude Oil

    Currencies DX, Euro, INR

    Agri Commodities

    Chana

    Black Pepper Turmeric

    Jeera

    Soybean

    Refine Soy Oil & CPO

    Sugar

    Kapas

    Monday | August 06, 2012

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    1.4

    0.1

    (0.8)(1.2)

    (1.9)(2.1)

    (2.4) (2.4)

    (4.0)(4.0)

    (3.5)

    (3.0)

    (2.5)

    (2.0)

    (1.5)

    (1.0)(0.5)

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    1.5

    0.9 0.8

    0.6

    0.30.1

    (0.4)

    (0.7)

    (1.0)

    (0.5)

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    Currencies Weekly Performance

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    *Weekly Performance for August contract; Kapas - April 2013 contract

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    GoldWeekly Price Performance

    On weekly basis, Spot prices of Gold declined by 1.2 percent in the week.

    The yellow metal touched a low of $1584.49/oz during the week and closedat $1603.80/oz in the last trading session.

    In the domestic market prices increased around 0.4 percent in last week.

    ETF Performance

    Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-

    traded fund, increased by 0.5 percent and stood at 1254.94 tonnes on July

    27, 2012 as compared to 1248.61 tonnes on July 27, 2012.

    Factors that influenced gold prices

    Federal Open Market Committee disappointed the market participants over

    more monetary easing which led to negative market sentiments thereby

    causing rise in the demand for low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index

    (DX).

    However, prices bounced back on Friday on positive data from the US but

    failed to recover earlier losses of the week.

    Outlook

    In the coming week gold prices are expected to trade rangebound with

    upward bias tracking positive economic data from the US economy and

    hopes that some positive measures might be taken by the Euro zone leaders

    to solve the Euro debt. Depreciation in the DX might also support upside in

    the prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will however cap sharp in the

    MCX Gold prices.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    MCX Gold : Support 29725/29550 Resistance 30025/30200.(CMP: 29,950)

    Spot Gold : Support 1581/1560 Resistance 1626/1650. (CMP: 1607.10)

    1,5301,5501,5701,5901,6101,6301,6501,6701,6901,7101,7301,7501,7701,790

    27,200

    27,500

    27,800

    28,100

    28,400

    28,700

    29,000

    29,300

    29,600

    29,900

    30,200

    30,500

    MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

    MCX-Near Month Gold Futures (1 kg)-Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

    78.0

    79.0

    80.0

    81.0

    82.0

    83.0

    84.0

    85.0

    1,530

    1,5501,5701,5901,610

    1,6301,6501,6701,690

    1,7101,7301,750

    1,7701,790

    Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

    Spot Gold -$/oz US Dollar Index

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    SilverWeekly Price Performance

    Spot Silver prices rose by 0.3 percent in the last week.

    However, weakness in the DX will support upside in the prices. In the Indian markets prices gained by 0.2 percent and closed at

    Rs.53,317/kg on Friday after touching a high of Rs.54319/kg in the last week.

    Factors that influenced silver prices

    Weakness in the DX.

    upbeat global market sentiments.

    However, sharp upside in prices was capped taking cues from fall in gold

    prices along with downside in the base metal prices.

    ETF performance On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest

    silver-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 1.24 percent to 9759.01

    tonnes on 3rd August 2012 from previous level at 9639.42 tonnes on 27th

    July 2012.

    Outlook

    Silver prices in the coming week is likely to trade sideways with bearish note

    due to weakness in the base metal prices along with rangebound trades in

    the gold prices. However, weakness in the DX might cushion sharp fall in theprices.

    In the domestic markets appreciation in the Indian Rupee might pressurize

    silver prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Buy MCX Silver September between 53,150-53,050, SL-52,290, Target -

    54,180/55,050.(CMP: 53303)

    Spot Silver : Support 27.0/26.25 Resistance 28.44/29.14 (CMP: 27.74)

    26

    28

    30

    32

    34

    36

    38

    50,000

    52,000

    54,000

    56,000

    58,000

    60,000

    MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

    MCX-Near Month Silver Futures (30 kg)-Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures -$/oz

    78.0

    79.0

    80.0

    81.0

    82.0

    83.0

    84.0

    85.0

    26.0

    27.5

    29.0

    30.5

    32.0

    33.5

    35.0

    36.5

    Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

    Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    CopperWeekly Price Performance

    Copper, the leader of the base metals pack declined around 2 percent and

    closed at $7,425.30/tonne in last trading session of the week.

    Copper Inventories

    The red metals inventories on the LME warehouses declined around 2.23

    percent to 244,725 tonnes on 3rd August 2012 from the previous level of

    250,300 tonnes on 27th July 2012.

    Weekly copper inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures

    Exchange gained by 4.9 percent to 164,11 tonnes last week.

    Factors that influenced copper prices

    Disappointment from ECB President Statement and US Federal Reservemeeting.

    Unfavorable economic data from China.

    Rise in Shanghai Inventories.

    However, sharp downside in prices was restricted on account of decline in

    LME copper inventories coupled with weakness in the DX.

    Outlook

    Copper prices in the coming week are expected to trade on a negative note

    on account of rise in the LME inventories. Weakness in DX might howevercushion sharp fall in the prices.

    However, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will exert downside pressure on

    the copper prices in the Indian markets.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    MCX Copper: Support 407/402 Resistance 416/422.(CMP: 413.50).

    LME Copper: Support 7260/7100 Resistance 7600/7784. (CMP: 7430.50)

    385390395400405410415420425430435440445450

    7,100

    7,300

    7,500

    7,700

    7,900

    8,100

    8,300

    8,500

    8,700

    8,900

    LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

    LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

    7,200

    7,400

    7,600

    7,800

    8,000

    8,200

    8,400

    8,600

    8,800

    210,000

    230,000

    250,000

    270,000

    290,000

    310,000

    330,000

    350,000

    370,000

    LME Copper Price Movement Vs In ventory

    Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Crude Oil

    Weekly Price Performance

    On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices gained around 1.4 percent.

    On the MCX, prices gained by 1.3 percent and closed at Rs.5,071/bbl on Friday.

    US Energy Department Inventory

    As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week, US crude oil

    inventories decline more than expected by 6.52 million barrels to 373.60 million

    barrels which for the week ending on 27th July 2012.

    Gasoline stocks fell by 2.17 million barrels to 207.9 million barrels and whereas

    distillate stockpiles also dropped by 974,000 barrels to 124.30 million barrels for

    the last week.

    Factors that influenced crude oil prices More than expected decline in the US crude oil inventories.

    Expectations of tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico.

    Weakness in the DX.

    Upbeat global market sentiments.

    Outlook

    Crude oil price in the coming week are expected to trade sideways with upward

    bias on account of weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments.

    Decline in the US Crude oil inventories might also support an upside in the crudeprices.

    Additionally any reports of revival in political issues from Iran may add to the gains.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Buy MCX Crude August between 5020-5000, SL-4900, Target -5210.(CMP: 5070)

    Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 90.0/88.30 Resistance 93.10/94.80. (CMP: 91.23)

    75.0

    80.0

    85.0

    90.0

    95.0

    100.0

    105.0

    110.0

    440045004600

    47004800

    490050005100

    520053005400

    55005600

    Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

    MCX cr ud e oi l (Rs/ bb l) NY MEX Cr ud e Oi l ($ /b bl)

    320

    330

    340

    350

    360

    370

    380

    390

    Crude Oil Invento ries (mn barrels)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

    On a week-on-week basis, the US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.4 percent.

    The Indian Rupee (INR) depreciated around 0.9 percent in the last week.

    Factors that influenced movement in the DX

    US Dollar Index (DX) swung between gains and losses and depreciated by 0.4

    percent in the last week. The currency declined due to disappointment over the US

    Federal Open Market Committee which did not opt for stimulus measures to boost

    the economy which led to rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants.

    Additionally, with European Central Bank policy makers meeting which failed to

    assure immediate steps to curtail the Euro zone debt added to the gains of the

    currency. The currency touched the low of 82.23 and settled at 82.45 on Friday.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

    The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.4 percent yesterday taking cues from

    disappointment over the US Federal Open Market Committee which did not opt for

    stimulus measures to boost the economy. Additionally, with European Central Bank

    policy makers meeting failed to assure immediate steps to curtail the Euro zone debt

    added downside pressure on the currency.

    It touched a low of 55.13 in last week and closed at 55.75 on Friday.

    FII Inflows

    For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 1,739.0 crores till 3rd August 2012.

    While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 54,004.80 crores till 3rdAugust 2012.

    Outlook

    We expect Rupee to trade with appreciation due to positive global market

    sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    USD/INR MCX July: Support 55.25/54.77 Resistance 56.35/56.97 (CMP:55.70)

    US Dollar Index: Support 81.25/81.85 Resistance 83.25/84.10 (CMP:82.40 )

    77.077.578.078.579.079.580.080.581.081.582.082.583.083.584.084.585.085.586.0

    US Dollar Index

    48.0

    49.0

    50.0

    51.0

    52.0

    53.0

    54.0

    55.0

    56.0

    57.0

    58.0

    $/INR - Spot

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    EuroWeekly Price Performance

    Euro appreciated by 0.6 percent in last week.

    The currency touched a high of 1.2404 and closed at 1.2385 on Friday.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

    Positive global market sentiments and on expectations that European Central

    banks policy makers might take steps to curtail the Euro zone debt.

    European Central Bank meeting had however failed to assure market

    participants immediate steps to solve the Euro zone debt crisis in the meeting

    held on Thursday August 2, 2012. This led to decline in the currency in the early

    part of the week.

    News

    Spanish Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.3 points to

    43.7-level in July as against a rise of 43.4-mark in June. Italian Services PMI

    declined marginally to 43-mark in last month as compared to increase of 43.1 in

    June.

    European Final Services PMI gained by 0.2 points to 47.9-level in last month

    from rise of 47.6-mark a month ago. European Retail Sales grew at slow pace of

    0.1 percent in June with respect to rise of 0.6 percent a month earlier.

    Outlook We expect the Euro to trade rangebound as positive signs from the Greece that

    it would be able to meet the bailout terms might support an upside in the

    currency while on the other hand disagreement over European Central bank aid

    to Spain is likely to create bearish market sentiments.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2190/1.2095 Resistance 1.2500/1.2565

    (CMP:1.2375)

    1.15

    1.18

    1.21

    1.24

    1.27

    1.30

    1.33

    1.36

    1.39

    Euro/$ - Spot

    63.5

    64.5

    65.5

    66.5

    67.5

    68.5

    69.5

    70.5

    71.5

    72.5

    EURO/INR -Spo t

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    Chana

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    After witnessing correction in the previous week, Chana futures continued with

    its upward trend and settled around 5.9% higher on account of tight supplies andcomparatively higher demand. Further, concerns over kharif pulses amid poor

    rains also supported chana prices.

    Kharif Pulses sowing continues to lag

    Around 68% of the area under kharif pulses have been covered so far and stands

    at 72.8 lakh hectares, down by 17%. Pulses sowing is down mainly in Rajasthan by

    53% as on 1st August. Whereas it is up in AP at 5.26 lakh hectares

    Rainfall 18% below normal as on 4th August

    Compared to last week, rainfall scenario has significantly improved However, in

    Rajasthan that accounts for almost 25% of the total area under Kharif Pulses,

    monsoon was deficient last week. However, in other pulses growing areas like

    Maharashtra rainfall has improved.

    Fourth Advance Estimates Chana output revised slightly up

    According to fourth Advance estimates, Chana output is revised up slightly from

    7.4 mn tn to 7.58 mn tn. However, it is lower by 7.5% from last years 8.22 mn tn.

    Outlook

    Chana prices might witness correction as demand may be slightly lower at such

    high price levels. However, prices may bounce back as overall fundamentals stillremain supportive for the upside on the back supply tightness of this Pulse crop

    coupled with weakening Indian rupee that is making imports costlier.

    Weekly Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Sept Chana between 4750-4800, SL-4650, target 5000/5050.

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    Black Pepper

    Source : Spices Board of India

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    Pepper prices corrected last week as higher quotes of Indian Pepper in the

    international market were uncompetitive. However, thin supplies in the domesticmarkets supported the prices at lower levels. The Spot settled 0.81% higher while

    the Futures settled 0.69% lower w-o-w.

    Pepper prices in India are being offered at $8,400/tn (c&f) while Vietnam is

    offering its 500 GL at $6,000/tn and Brazil B-Austa at $6150/tn.

    Average daily arrivals stood around 38 tn while offtakes stood at 26 tn last week .

    A sharp fall in Pepper Exports

    According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper fell sharply from 2,266

    tonnes in April 2011 to 1,200 tonnes in April 2012, by about 47%. In value terms it

    fell by only 18%, as the export prices were comparatively much higher.

    Global updates

    Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the

    first 2 months of the year to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period

    previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to

    3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012.

    Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June 2012 is estimated around

    73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to

    corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January

    through May 2012 stood around 9376 MT.

    Good arrivals from Indonesia pressured prices in the international markets.

    Outlook

    Pepper prices in the coming week is likely to recover from lower levels due to thin

    supplies in the domestic markets. Also, as the traders from Indonesia will go on a

    holiday due to Ramadan, any increase in demand will be a good opportunity for

    Indian Pepper.

    Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Sept Pepper between 42700-43000, SL-41800, Target 44500/44800.

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    Turmeric

    Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    Turmeric prices corrected in the initial part of the week as the regulator increased

    special (cash on the long side) and the pre-expiry margins. The expiry of theAugust contract has been preponed from 17th August to 16th August 2012, on

    account of closure of the physical markets at the basis centre, Nizamabad.

    However, the prices in the Futures recovered on reports of poor rainfall and less

    sowing increasing.

    According to the IMD, the key grown regions (Southern Peninsula) received 23%

    below normal rainfall. Erode mandi remained closed for most of the week due to

    local festival. The spot prices settled 5.18% lower while the while the Futures

    settled 3.88% higher on w-o-w basis.

    Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

    well as lower turmeric prices. Thus, farmers to shift to other remunerative crops.

    The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 1st August, 2012 has been reported

    at 0.4 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower as compared to last year (0.54

    lha), as well as normal as on date (0.6 lha).

    Turmeric production at historical high in 2012

    Production of Turmeric is expected to touch historical level of 90 lakh bags in

    2011-12 season. Production of turmeric in Erode in 2011-12 is expected to rise

    57% to 55 lakh bags as compared to 35 lakh bags in 2010-11.

    Outlook

    In the coming week, turmeric prices may find support at lower levels due to lower

    sowing as well as weather concerns in the turmeric growing regions. However,

    sharp gains maybe capped if the regulator takes any further action to curb the

    rise in the prices. It is necessary to track monsoon progress as this may impact the

    sowing and the yield of Turmeric crops.

    Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Sept Turmeric between 6200-6250, SL-5800 Target 6700/6750.

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    Jeera

    Source: Spices Board of India

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    Jeera Futures corrected early in the week as market participants exited their long

    positions after the food minister said that the government may ban some agri

    commodities to curb the rising prices. However, prices recovered due toincreasing demand for Indian Jeera in the international markets. Supply concerns

    from major exporting nations have led to an increase in the demand for Indian

    Jeera. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 2.09% and 5.74% higher w-o-w.

    Jeera Exports may increase in 2012-13 season

    Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target

    for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.

    Due to fall in the production in Syria and Turkey, and the ongoing tensions in

    Syria, exporters have been diverted to India. Export enquiries have been

    reported from Bangladesh and other Asian countries, supporting the prices.

    Lower production in the Syria and Turkey

    According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 17,000 tons while

    production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

    around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

    Domestic updates

    Output of Jeera in India this season (2012) is expected to touch 40 lakh bags, a

    rise of 37.9%as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2011 (each bag weighs 55kgs).

    International Scenario Lower production of Jeera in Syria and Turkey have caused supply concerns. Also,

    the ongoing civil war in Syria has disrupted exports from Syria.

    Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2900-2950/tn (c&f).

    Outlook

    Jeera prices are likely to trade upward due to lower stocks in the domestic

    markets. Supply concerns in the global markets are also likely to support prices.

    Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Sept Jeera between 16300-16400, SL-16000, Target 17000/17100.

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    Soybean

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Weekly price performance

    Domestic futures extended the losses of the previous week tracking the sowing

    progress, however, prices again bounce back after the IMD predicted deficient

    rains in the current season. Prices settled 1.25% lower w-o-w.

    CBOT soybean settled 1.6% lower on long liquidation.

    Soybean sowing up by 5.9% as on 3rd August

    Oilseeds sowing recovered due to higher sowing of soybean, however, groundnut

    acreage is down by 18.8% due to scanty rains in Gujarat. Oilseeds sowing is down

    by 3.2% at 145.17 lakh ha lakh he, while, soybean is up by 5.9% at 103.23 lakh ha.

    Soy meal exports up 53% compared to previous year

    According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, Soy meal exports rose to

    180,987 tonnes in June from 117,600 tonnes a year ago .

    USDA monthly report to be released later this week

    Us soybeans condition was 31 percent in good/excellent condition compared to

    34 pct wk ago, 62 pct yr ago,. However, While soybeans are in their crucial yield-

    determining phase, improved weather may provide some support to the crop

    and pressurize prices to some extent.

    But the drop in prices should be limited as investors await fresh trading cues from

    a key supply-demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture later this

    week that will quantify crop damage from the worst drought in 56 years.

    Outlook

    Soybean futures may track USDA the demand supply report and may gain initially,

    however, upside in the domestic Soybean futures may be limited on account of

    higher sowing and good rains over soybean growing areas.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Oct Soybean between 3800 - 3850, SL-3700, target 4050/4100.

    .

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    Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Weekly price performance

    NCDEX as well as CBOT soy oil settled marginally higher by 0.54% and 0.27%

    w-o-w . However, BMD Palm oil settled marginally lower by 0.14% on accountof seasonally high supplies and comparatively less demand this season.

    Global Scenario

    MPOBs July inventory data is expected later this week .

    Malaysian palm oil Production has risen consistently since March 2012 and

    expected to go as high as 1.9 mn tn in September. On the other hand, exports

    have fallen 18.6 percent in July 1-25 to below 990,000 tonnes compared to a

    month ago due to a lull in Asian demand.

    Malaysia will increase shipping quotas for tax free CPO by up to 2 mn tn to 5

    mn tn this year to help planters cope with an expected increase in output

    Exports of palm oil from Indonesia, the world's biggest grower of the edible

    oil, are likely to drop after top consumer India effectively doubled import

    taxes on refined products

    Domestic Scenario

    India's Cabinet approved a new import tax structure on refined palm oil to

    protect local refiners and make palm oil imports costlier from Indonesia. The

    base import price would be calculated on international prices rather than a

    fixed price.

    India imported 124,125 tonnes of refined palm oil in June, down nearly 25

    percent from May. Total vegetable oil imports in June were 783,315 tonnes,

    down 12.7 percent from 896,921 tonnes in the previous month, the data

    from the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) showed.

    Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

    Sell NCDEX Sept Refined Soy Oil between 800-805, SL-815, target 770/765.

    Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)

    Sell MCX Sept CPO between 570-575, SL-595, Target 540/535.

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    Sugar

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    Sugar August futures hit new contract high of Rs 3672 per qtl and settled % higher

    w-o-w on account of poor rains in India and thereby concerns over next yearsoutput. However, Liffe sugar declined sharply and settled lower by 5.6% on

    reports that brazils harvesting has begun in full swing after rains receded in the

    centre south .

    NCDEX changes minimum initial margin on Sugar

    Initial margin on wheat has been increased to 10% of the contract or value at risk

    from 5 % earlier w.e.f today.

    Rainfall likely to be deficient IMD Second Half Long Range forecast

    Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to

    September, 2012 is likely to be 91% of LPA with a model error of 8%.

    Based on the rainfall distribution over the country till date and outlook for the

    second half of the season, the seasonal rainfall of the entire southwest monsoon

    season (June to September) is likely to be deficient (< 90% of LPA).

    Brazil's weather back on the roadharvesting at full swing

    According to Unica, Mills in Brazil's main center-south cane region produced 9.32

    mn tn of sugar since April, down 22 percent from a year ago, With a return to a

    normal weather pattern, cane harvesting is in full swing. while sugar output

    reached 2.63 mn tn in the first two weeks of July, up 2% from a year ago.Outlook

    Sugar may witness correction as cane growing area of Maharashtra are witnessing

    above average rains since past few days. However, if rains continue to remain

    below normal in UP, then prices may again rise as UP is the largest cane producing

    state and poor rains may hamper yield.

    Strategy

    Sell NCDEX Sugar Sept between 3700 to 3750, SL 3900, Target 3400 / 3350

  • 7/31/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker -6th August 2012

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    Kapas/Cotton

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    Kapas prices settled 4.81% higher owing to fall in acreage coupled with monsoon

    concerns in the key growing states. ICE Cotton October futures settled higher by

    3.53% on global weather concerns and surge in export demand.

    Cotton sowing Down by 7.1% as on 3rd August, 2012

    Cotton area stands at 10.14 mln ha, compared with 10.92 mln ha a year ago.

    India's June-Sept rains likely to be 15 pct below average

    India's monsoon rains in June to September are likely to be 85 percent of the

    long-period average.

    In the key cotton growing state of Gujarat, rainfall is 80-90% scanty which has

    raised concerns over area as well as yield in the coming season.

    Record Export this season with low carryover stocks

    The Cotton Advisory Board has estimated exports this season at a record 13.5

    million bales (of 170 kg each) against 8 million bales last season. The record

    exports will leave about 4 million bales carryover stock. (Source: Business Line)

    Global Scenario

    Washington-based International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) says

    demand in the year starting August 1 will be 23.17 million tonnes (mt),

    down from last month's projection of 23.53 mt, while output has been

    trimmed to 24.74 mt (24.87 mt) on account of lower harvest.

    Outlook

    Kapas Prices on the domestic front are expected to trade higher due to y-o-y fall

    in cotton acreage in the country and on reports of below average rainfall in major

    states that would affect the yield .

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX July Kapas Between 1130 1140, SL 1110, Target 1180 / 1190

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    Thank You!

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | August 06, 2012

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