communicating risk and hazard to policy-makers

Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers

Sir Mark WalportChief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

2 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers

• Health, wellbeing, security & resilience

• Knowledge translated to economic advantage

• The right science for emergencies

• Underpinning policy with evidence

• Advocacy and leadership for science

Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser

Credit: iStockphoto


Where does risk come in?

Natural Credit: CDC/EthleenLloydCredit: Maccheek/PD


Where does risk come in?

Human

Credit: AP Credit: @Boston_to_a_T/Twitter


National Risk Register


Risk all pervasive in work as GCSA

Innovation held back by badly framed discussions about risk

•Communication

•Science meets values

•Regulation


Communicating risk to policy makers

• Hazard

• Exposure

• Vulnerability

• Risk

• Uncertainty

• Threat

Credit: Warren Photographic


Language matters

Source: Somerville and Hassol, Communicating the science of climate change, Physics Today, October 2011

The need for scientific precision needs to be balanced with the need to be understood by non-specialists


Source: Somerville and Hassol, Communicating the science of climate change, Physics Today, October 2011

BUT!

Language matters

The need for scientific precision needs to be balanced with the need to be understood by non-specialists


COBR

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

(SAGE)

Non-Governmental Organisations

Government Scientists

Industry Academia

• 2010 – Volcanic Ash• 2011 – Fukushima• 2012 – Olympics • 2013 – Flooding• 2014 – Ebola • 2015 – Nepal Earthquake

• Operational response• Impact management• Recovery• Public Information

Communicating Risk in an Emergency

Home Office Rapid Diagnostics, 25th June 201310

SACs


Communicating Risk in an Emergency:Ebola

• Modelling – what are the best and reasonable worst case scenarios?

• Risk to UK – how many cases should we expect to see?

• Screening – will it be effective in identifying cases?

• Virus survival – how long does the virus last on different surfaces? Will it survive in sewage?

• Vaccines –What clinical trials do we need?

• What else can we do?

Cumulative cases 24 666Cases in past 21 days 398Cumulative deaths 10 179WHO Ebola Situation Report - 18 March 2015


Communicating Risk in an Emergency:Nepal Earthquake

• Risk Assessment - What is the reasonable worst case scenario? Is there a risk of another earthquake?

• Aftershocks – How many, what magnitude, how long will they last and where might these occur?

• Landslides – Where have they occurred? What is the risk of further landslides?

• Monsoon season – What additional risks will this pose?

• Geo-mapping - What satellite data can we provide to aid the response?

Mapping and images from Nepal Earthquake 2015

Credit: Omar Havana/Getty


Effective communication requires an understanding of your audience

Source: Rankmaniac, 2012

14 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers10 Science Advice to Government - Auckland

Scientific evidence is just one part of the picture

We can provide the very best evidence but must recognise that the ‘lenses’ of politics and the machinery of delivery will all interact to produce the final outcome.

Politics

DeliveryEvidence

Policy

Communicating to policy makers:Lenses


Communicating to policy makers:Lenses – Shale gas

Scientific concerns

‘Hydraulic fracturing’

Fossil fuel, engineering and geological:

• Loss of integrity in aquifer zone

• Seismic events

• Methane release

Understanding public attitudes

‘Fracking’

Anti-fracking movements are not solely concerned with emissions or the risks of pollution or seismicity:

•Opposition to the oil and gas industry

•‘Not in my back yard’

•Opposition to continued exploitation of fossil fuels in general

Credit: greensefa/CC BY 2.0


• Human Fertility and Embryology Authority

• addresses policy issues relating to fertility regulation

• sometimes ethically and clinically complex

• Scrupulous care in assessing a wide range of data and evidence

• Comprehensive programme of public engagement

• Helped build trust in community at large

• Worked closely with legislators

Science meets values

Credit: iStockphoto

Credit: CBCEW


Communication when science meets values

…and to counter misinformation

To inform…


Meta-analysis is a highly valuable tool


Scientists should take care not to over-hype their own research


“If you say the world is going to end, people switch off thinking ‘here they go again, trying to sell us something’.”Focus group participant, Sutton Coldfield

(Shuckburgh et al, 2012)

“If you say the world is going to end, people switch off thinking ‘here they go again, trying to sell us something’.”Focus group participant, Sutton Coldfield

(Shuckburgh et al, 2012)

Framing matters

Positive or negative framing (and values emphasised) can influence how information is assimilated


Perception of future risk is influenced by experience

Source: Defra/Ipsos MORI/AEA Technology, 2013


Holding a Wider Conversation about Risk

• Risk – a societal issue

• Language

• Values and lenses

• Who benefits and who carries the risk

• Transparency

• Widening the conversation is a democratic necessity

Credit: Focus Features


Scientific Diplomacy


Conclusion

• To be a good scientist, you need to be a good communicator – Science isn’t finished until it is communicated!

• During emergencies, effective communication to policy makers is essential

• We need to be precise in our communication:

• Hazard vs Risk

• The level of uncertainty

• Language we use

Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected] .

@uksciencechief

www.gov.uk/go-science

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