Community Adaptation to Flooding in a Changing Climate: Assessing Municipal Officials’ Actions, Decision-Making, and Barriers

Gretchen Gary and Shorna Allred, PhD Human Dimensions Research Unit Department of Natural Resources

Overview •  Introduction

•  Theoretical Framework •  Research Questions

•  Methods

•  Results

•  Educational Program Evaluations •  Conclusions

Climate Change and Flooding FEMA – June 2013

•  Areas in the US at risk for flooding will increase 40 – 45% by 2100

•  70% of the increased risk is attributed to climate change

•  Could double the number of properties covered by FEMA (~5.5 - ~11 billion)

Climate Change and Flooding New York State •  Rising temperature, changes in precipitation

frequency & intensity, higher sea level (Rosenzwieg et al. 2011)

•  Local differences in climate change (Rosenzwieg et al. 2011)

•  Land-use patterns affect flooding in NY (Kneupfer and Montz 2008)

Orange

Ulster

Rockland

Putnam

Albany Schoharie

Greene

The Hudson Valley & the Hudson River Estuary

Recent Extreme Events in the Hudson Valley •  August 2011

Hurricane Irene •  September 2011

Tropical Storm Lee •  October 2012

Hurricane Sandy

Photo: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab

Hurricane Irene 2011

Phoenicia, NY Photo: Ivan LaJara

Rifton, NY Photo: Imgur

Middleburgh Valley Schoharie County Daily Gazette, August 29, 2011

Tropical Storm Lee Just days after Irene

New Paltz, NY Photo: Katy Silberger/Foter.com/CC BY-NC-SA

Highland, NY Photo: Steve Borland/Times Herald-Record

Hurricane Sandy 2012

Piermont, NY Photo: John Meore/for the Journal News

Sources: CBS News, NBC News, Staten Island Advance, Transportation Nation; via Huffington Post

Importance of Local Government •  Municipalities control local

energy use, infrastructure, planning, and land use decisions.

•  Important to understand

motivation for actions for & what actions are being taken

Understanding

Problem Detection: Recognize flood vulnerability

Vulnerability: Determine who/what is affected & how

Redefine Problem: After a flood, re-evaluate concerns & vulnerability

Develop Options: Examine current/past behaviors; gather information for future options

Assess Options: Develop a flood plan for adaptation, preparation, &response

Select Options: Determine how local flooding will be addressed

Planning

Implement Options: Implement selected actions

Monitor: Monitor effectiveness of actions & environmental effects

Evaluate: Evaluate plan & implementation

Managing

Adapted from Moser and Ekstrom 2010

Common Barriers to Municipal Officials Understanding, Planning, and Managing for Flooding As Identified in the Literature

Phase of Adaptive Cycle Barrier

Understanding Disconnect among decision makers and local observations and experiences (local knowledge)1,4,5,6,7

Understanding & Planning Lack of knowledge, access to information, and consensus regarding flood issues and options1,2,3

Understanding & Planning Flood planning is low priority1,7, 12

Planning Lack of responsibility for, or control of, floods and planning1,4, 5, 8, 9, 10

Planning & Managing Limited funding or other resources1,2, 5, 10, 11

Planning & Managing Political agenda or legal issues do not allow for flood adaptation1,8, 14

Managing Lack of planning leading to reactionary responses (insufficient structural solutions, hasty recoveries)3, 4, 5, 9

1Moser and Eckstrom 2010, 2Mullen et al. 2012, 3Storbjörk 2007, 4Glaas et al 2010, 5Naess et al. 2005, 6Schelfaut et al. 2011, 7Tryhorn and DeGaetano 2011. 8Betsill 2001, 9Blomquist and Schlager 2005, 10Wilson 2006, 11Wheeler 2008, 12Andrew 2012, 13Stevens et al. 2008, 14Doolittle 2003

Research Questions 1.  What barriers do local municipal officials encounter or

perceive in the “understanding, planning, and managing” phases of adaptation to flooding?

2.  At what stage in the process are municipal officials, and during what phase(s) do they encounter the most barriers?

3.  Which barriers to flood adaptation have municipal officials overcome and what actions are being taken?

4.  What do municipal officials still need in order to address flooding?

Methods 1.  CCE educators were trained in interview

methods & IRB protocol and helped to conduct in-depth interviews (n = 36)

2.  10 counties in Hudson Valley, NY watersheds

3.  Municipal officials with responsibility for flooding in the community

4.  Interviews conducted in person (n=33) or by phone (n=3), digitally recorded, & transcribed

5.  Analyzed using thematic coding in Atlas.ti

Interview Participants & Study Area

Position # of Interviews

Town Supervisor 20 Highway officials 7 County officials 5 Mayor 2 Other position 3 TOTAL 37

Orange

Ulster

Rockland

Putnam

Albany Schoharie

Greene

n=1 n=2 n=3

n=2

n=3

n=4

n=5

n=5

n=5

n=6

65% of participants had previous education or training related to flooding

Results 1.  Observations of climate change 2.  Flood adaptation process 3.  Barriers to flood adaptation 4.  Actions for flood adaptation 5.  Needs

Results Municipal Officials Observations of Climate Change

Weather % officials observed change  

Extreme events   76%  

Local differences   24%  

Precipitation   22%  

Unsure   19%  

No changes observed   8%  

Temperature   8%  

“I guess with the topography that we have here, with the weather pattern changing and getting more extreme, it’s kind of more of the same so these aren’t new, we’re…not seeing the type of events that would force us to change what we’re doing...” - Town Supervisor

Results Observations of Climate Change

“The weather changes, the pattern changes the last…10 years or so, obviously it’s getting more and more severe almost every year and that’s not a political statement, it’s a reality.” - Town Supervisor

“It’s definitely extreme weather. It has created some circumstances.” - Town Supervisor

Results Flood adaptation process

53% 42%

5%

Understanding Planning Managing

54%

44%

2%

Stage of Adaptation Process Barriers per Adaptation Stage

Results Barriers to taking action

3% 3%

11% 14%

24% 30%

46% 46%

51% 59%

62% 68%

81% 86%

None perceived

Topography

Lack planning

Lack technical support

Lack time

Lack communication

Lack personnel

Attitudes of public

Lack local support

Limited resources

Lack knowledge

Lack control

Gov't regs & processes

Lack money

% of municipal officials that identified the barrier

Bar

riers

Results Barrier: Lack of money

“Money. It all boils down to economics. We know what we should do. We don’t know that we can do it. Sometimes one has to rely on a band-aid of sorts.” – Highway Superintendent

Results Barrier: State & Federal Government regulations & processes

“Most of the stuff [for stream management] you need a permit and the process of getting a permit is, you know, we’re going to have 10 storms before we get one permit” – Town Supervisor

Results Barrier: Perceived lack of control

“A lot of the damage was so devastating at the last one some of the residents in frustration just wanted to blame us. We didn’t do enough, we didn’t help them and the reality is, I don’t know what I can do for you in a tidal Hudson River event and I don’t think it’s fair that you publically lambast me for not helping you when there’s nothing I can do for you and post-storm, I don’t know what I can do for you.” – Mayor

Results Taking Action

Photo: Hans Pennink, Associated Press)

Rock vein used to protect a stream bank

Results Taking Action

19%

22%

24%

24%

27%

30%

30%

49%

51%

65%

73%

Public education

Structural defense

Maintain infrastructure

Stream management

Vulnerability study

Hazard mitigation

Improve infrastructure

Dredging

Flood planning

Communication

Emergency Planning

% of municipal officials who have utilized the action

Act

ion

Results Action: Emergency Planning & Response

•  Emergency planning or response is the most utilized action related to flooding

•  Communication & cooperation are essential tools for effective emergency response

•  Necessary for immediate public safety •  Those who had emergency plans more likely

express the desire for flood planning and monitoring efforts

“Oh the town has an extensive emergency preparedness system in place with our emergency management officer and the police department coordinating pre-storm preparations in some of these areas. Our emergency operations center will be activated in many instances prior to severe storm forecasts and then mobilizes our highway department, our recreation and parks department, all available staff, my department, the supervisors, the controllers and purchasing departments that coordinate preparations and reactiveness to various storm or flooding events.” - Deputy Director, Dept. of Environmental Control

Results Action: Emergency Planning & Response

Results Action: Communication & Cooperation

•  Necessary for implementing emergency flood response

•  Stronger efforts for flood planning or zoning through professional exchanges and community involvement

•  Allows for informal, community-wide, monitoring of streams and storm damage

“Well we communicate. You know, we communicate with other supervisors and mayors... We coordinate with each of [our 3] villages. I also communicate with neighboring supervisors and we exchange ideas and things that we’re doing. Sort of in an informal manner outside of… [the] formal process of dealing with those issues.” – Town Supervisor

Results Action: Communication & Cooperation

Results Action: Flood Planning & Zoning •  Effective planning takes the effort of community-

wide cooperation •  Flood planning occurs when municipal officials

have concerns related to lack of planning, infrastructure damage, private property vulnerability, and runoff

•  Understanding the weather is changing drives some officials to initiate flood planning

Part of our zoning allows wetlands to be considered as part of the open space. And always people react to that to say why are we, you can’t do anything with wetlands but the point is, it gives them added protection and they act as what they were intended to be, which is an aquifer recharge and a storm water holding entity. So our zoning actually, I think, helps mitigate some of it. – Town Supervisor

Results Action: Flood Planning & Zoning

Results Action: Vulnerability Assessment

No 73%

Yes 27%

“You want to see it [flooding] when it’s happening to find out what the reason is. The other thing we do is take a lot of pictures so I do a project down the road I have a file of pictures before… so we know what to do as an historical perspective.” – County Official

Results Future Options & Alternatives

11%

16%

16%

19%

22%

22%

24%

30%

32%

49%

62%

89%

Dredging

Hazard mitigation

Stream monitoring

Structural defenses

Emergency planning

Vulnerability assessment

Public education

Maintain infrastructure

Communication

Stream management

Flood planning

Improve infrastructure

% of officials who identified the option

Opt

ions

/ Alte

rnat

ives

Results What might facilitate action

8%

8%

8%

11%

11%

11%

14%

17%

22%

28%

33%

Money

Local knowledge

Flood planning resources

Communication resources

None perceived

Understand floods & streams

Technical assistance

Help navigating gov't policies

Assistance to community

Partnerships or cooperation

Info on local climate & floods

Nee

ds

% of officials who identified the need

Educational Program Evaluation •  2 workshops for highway personnel (n=23, n=27) •  Focus on proper post flood stream intervention

Toe wood structure under construction to protect eroding stream bank.

Channel dimensions restored with floodplain access.

Channelized stream with gravel berms.

Stream before (L) and after (R) channel straightening

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Greene County Dutchess County

Perc

ent C

orre

ct

Workshop

Pre test Post test

F = 0.265 p = 0.01

F = 0.804 p = 0.01

Greene County Disagree Neutral Agree

My municipality is well prepared for floods. 40% 52% 8% I am aware of green infrastructure techniques in my municipality. 29% 38% 34%

Most streams with flood damage require human intervention. 36% 16% 48%

Dutchess County Disagree Neutral Agree

My municipality is well prepared for floods. 28% 20% 40% I am aware of green infrastructure techniques in my municipality. 25% 25% 42% Most streams with flood damage require human intervention. 56% 8% 20%

Post-workshop Evaluation Questions

How useful was the content of this training to you?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Greene County

Dutchess County

I plan to implement the stream management techniques recommended in this workshop

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Greene County

Dutchess County

% “Very Useful” % “Agree” or “Strongly Agree”

Post-workshop Evaluation Questions

Future Needs Assessment Riparian Landowners •  Survey to be mailed to a random sample of

riparian landowners in fall 2013

•  Collect information on the current, past, and expected stream management/land use behaviors

•  Information collected will inform future landowner education

Summary

•  Climate change will alter flood patterns

•  Flood adaptation includes understanding, planning, & managing

•  Most municipal officials are in the understanding phase

•  Common barriers are government policies and regulations and lack of money, knowledge, or control of the situation

•  Officials take some actions to address flooding

•  Officials need information on local effects & forming/sustaining partnerships

•  Educational programs effectively increase knowledge

Conclusions •  Local governments are first responders for

flooding in small communities

•  Municipalities in the Hudson Valley are not well prepared for floods in the changing climate

•  Municipal officials recognize planning as an important action to take but face many barriers

•  Partnerships and collaboration are important tools for effective flood planning and response

Conclusions •  Municipal officials need to understand local

climate effects, proper post-flood stream response, green infrastructure, and how to navigate available resources

•  Workshops are effective tools and can help

municipal official push past the barriers in the understanding phase

Next Steps • Design and utilize resources for modeling

local climate

•  Facilitate partnerships among municipalities

• Continue educational programs for municipal officials and the public

Acknowledgements

•  NYSDEC Hudson River Estuary Program •  Interview and evaluation participants •  Cornell Cooperative Extension Educators •  The Project Team

Contact Information Gretchen Gary glg58@cornell.edu Shorna Allred, PhD srb237@cornell.edu