company update 07 feb 2020 lupin - hdfc securities - update... · we resume coverage with a neutral...

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COMPANY UPDATE 07 FEB 2020 Lupin NEUTRAL HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters US pipeline execution is key We resume coverage with a Neutral rating and TP of Rs705/sh based on 20x FY22 EPS. Lupin has an excellent India franchise (35% of revenues, grew at 13% CAGR over last 5 years), however, with 40% of revenues from US, a lot hinges on pipeline execution, outlook for which is contingent on: a) execution of three key assets – Levothyroxine (market share ramp up), Solosec (branded product) and approval for gProAir; b) resolution of compliance issues at its US FDA facilities (5 with OAI status including 2 WL). While we factor increased traction in the US and also build margin expansion on back of cost control efforts & operating leverage, valuations at 21x FY22 EPS appear full. Slow ramp-up in Solosec and Levothyroxine - ~40% of US revenue growth is driven by Levothyroxine (increased traction from Q4), Solosec (initial TRx trends are soft) and gProAir (approval delayed to 1HFY21) over the next two years. Worsening facility issues remains key risk - Goa and Indore remain under warning letter since Nov 2017. While critical filings have been site-transferred, the annual opportunity loss has been ~USD40-50mn of revenues. Somerset, Mandideep and Tarapur facilities have also received Form 483 with OAI status. Lupin will request FDA for reinspection in next three months. Downside risks: delay in resolution of plants, delay in key approvals, a slow ramp-up in key products, higher price erosion in the US, adverse outcome on drug price-fixing lawsuit in the US. Upside risks: faster ramp- up of key products, resolution of plants. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER Lupin’s Q3 EBIDTA margin came below expectations at 11.4% (down 588bps YoY, down 190bps QoQ) led by higher other exp (remediation cost, higher promotional spend) and R&D cost. Large one offs related to Gavis impairment, Japan divestiture led to reported loss of Rs83.5bn. Key call highlights – a) Guidance - ~18% EBIDTA margin in FY20 (incl other income); b) 15+ US launches in FY21; c) EU approval for Enbrel in 4Q, likely launch in 1QFY21; d) Post impairment, Gavis value on B/S at USD200mn; e) Nagpur site has largest ANDA pending for approval Financial Summary (Consolidated) (Rs mn) Q3FY20 Q3FY19 YoY (%) Q2FY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Net Sales 37,161 38,212 (2.8) 36,761 1.1 155,598 161,491 160,345 168,252 184,184 EBITDA 4,291 6,816 (37.0) 4,965 (13.6) 31,475 26,619 24,799 27,994 32,712 APAT 1,197 1,808 (33.8) 2,171 (44.9) 14,718 9,466 10,455 12,668 16,034 Diluted EPS (Rs) 2.6 4.0 (33.8) 4.8 (44.9) 32.5 20.9 23.1 27.9 35.4 P/E (x) 22.2 34.6 31.3 25.8 20.4 RoCE (%) 9.6 6.8 7.1 8.4 10.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY PHARMA CMP (as on 06 Feb 2020) Rs 721 Target Price Rs 705 Nifty 12,138 Sensex 41,306 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg LPC IN No. of Shares (mn) 453 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 326/4,582 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,077 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 884/646 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (6.6) (4.0) (14.4) Relative (%) (8.7) (15.7) (26.2) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Sep-19 Dec-19 Promoters 46.96 46.93 FIs & Local MFs 13.05 13.42 FPIs 25.66 24.66 Public & Others 14.05 14.38 Pledged Shares - - Source : BSE Bansi Desai, CFA [email protected] +91-22-6171-7341

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Page 1: COMPANY UPDATE 07 FEB 2020 Lupin - HDFC securities - Update... · We resume coverage with a Neutral rating and TP of Rs705/sh based on 20x FY22 EPS. Lupin has an excellent ... Cipla

COMPANY UPDATE 07 FEB 2020

Lupin NEUTRAL

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

US pipeline execution is keyWe resume coverage with a Neutral rating and TP of Rs705/sh based on 20x FY22 EPS. Lupin has an excellent India franchise (35% of revenues, grew at 13% CAGR over last 5 years), however, with 40% of revenues from US, a lot hinges on pipeline execution, outlook for which is contingent on: a) execution of three key assets – Levothyroxine (market share ramp up), Solosec (branded product) and approval for gProAir; b) resolution of compliance issues at its US FDA facilities (5 with OAI status including 2 WL). While we factor increased traction in the US and also build margin expansion on back of cost control efforts & operating leverage, valuations at 21x FY22 EPS appear full.

Slow ramp-up in Solosec and Levothyroxine - ~40% of US revenue growth is driven by Levothyroxine (increased traction from Q4), Solosec (initial TRx trends are soft) and gProAir (approval delayed to 1HFY21) over the next two years.

Worsening facility issues remains key risk - Goa and Indore remain under warning letter since Nov 2017. While critical filings have been site-transferred, the annual opportunity loss has been ~USD40-50mn of

revenues. Somerset, Mandideep and Tarapur facilities have also received Form 483 with OAI status. Lupin will request FDA for reinspection in next three months.

Downside risks: delay in resolution of plants, delay in key approvals, a slow ramp-up in key products, higher price erosion in the US, adverse outcome on drug price-fixing lawsuit in the US. Upside risks: faster ramp-up of key products, resolution of plants.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER

Lupin’s Q3 EBIDTA margin came below expectations at 11.4% (down 588bps YoY, down 190bps QoQ) led by higher other exp (remediation cost, higher promotional spend) and R&D cost. Large one offs related to Gavis impairment, Japan divestiture led to reported loss of Rs83.5bn.

Key call highlights – a) Guidance - ~18% EBIDTA margin in FY20 (incl other income); b) 15+ US launches in FY21; c) EU approval for Enbrel in 4Q, likely launch in 1QFY21; d) Post impairment, Gavis value on B/S at USD200mn; e) Nagpur site has largest ANDA pending for approval

Financial Summary (Consolidated) (Rs mn) Q3FY20 Q3FY19 YoY (%) Q2FY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Net Sales 37,161 38,212 (2.8) 36,761 1.1 155,598 161,491 160,345 168,252 184,184 EBITDA 4,291 6,816 (37.0) 4,965 (13.6) 31,475 26,619 24,799 27,994 32,712 APAT 1,197 1,808 (33.8) 2,171 (44.9) 14,718 9,466 10,455 12,668 16,034 Diluted EPS (Rs) 2.6 4.0 (33.8) 4.8 (44.9) 32.5 20.9 23.1 27.9 35.4 P/E (x) 22.2 34.6 31.3 25.8 20.4 RoCE (%) 9.6 6.8 7.1 8.4 10.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY PHARMA CMP (as on 06 Feb 2020) Rs 721 Target Price Rs 705 Nifty 12,138

Sensex 41,306

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg LPC IN

No. of Shares (mn) 453

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 326/4,582

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,077

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 884/646

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (6.6) (4.0) (14.4)

Relative (%) (8.7) (15.7) (26.2)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Sep-19 Dec-19

Promoters 46.96 46.93 FIs & Local MFs 13.05 13.42 FPIs 25.66 24.66 Public & Others 14.05 14.38 Pledged Shares - - Source : BSE

Bansi Desai, CFA [email protected] +91-22-6171-7341

Page 2: COMPANY UPDATE 07 FEB 2020 Lupin - HDFC securities - Update... · We resume coverage with a Neutral rating and TP of Rs705/sh based on 20x FY22 EPS. Lupin has an excellent ... Cipla

LUPIN : COMPANY UPDATE

Page | 2

Resuming coverage with a Neutral We estimate that Lupin’s sales and earnings will post

7% and 24% CAGRs, respectively, over FY20-22, driven by higher growth in India and the US.

Lupin's US business fell from USD1.2bn in FY17 to low of USD777mn in FY19. Consequently, the EBITDA margin fell from c.27% to c.14.5% for the same

period, led by higher erosion in the US business. We expect its core EBITDA margin to improve by c.250bps over FY20- 22e, led by cost containment measures and high-value launches in the US.

We estimate India business to report a 12% CAGR, led by higher growth in chronic care segments.

Revenue mix summary (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20-22E Comments India 38,157 41,253 46,382 51,253 57,403 64,292 12% Expect growth ahead of the Industry

US 82,627 58,939 55,924 57,809 66,357 71,693 11% Levothyroxine, Solosec, gProAir to drive revenue growth

APAC 22,655 25,725 26,114 16,516 6,887 7,231 -34% Japan business divested

EMEA 10,115 11,252 11,906 12,450 13,695 15,338 11% Driven by growth in South Africa and new launches in Europe

Latam 4,516 5,790 5,658 6,315 6,946 7,641 10% Brazil and Mexico are the largest market

ROW 1,742 1,708 2,243 3,231 3,554 3,909 10% Stable EBITDA margin business Net sales 171,195 155,598 161,691 160,345 168,252 184,184 7% Driven by US, India and EM business

EBITDA margin 25.7% 19.9% 16.2%* 15.2% 16.4% 17.5% High value launches in US, cost control measures will drive margin expansion

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, *excluding one-offs, margins are at 14.5%

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India business is on strong footing India revenues grew by a c.13% CAGR over the last

five years (despite several challenges) vs industry growth of c.10%, led by strong growth in chronic therapies. Lupin's double-digit growth over this period compares favorably to that of its peers. Lupin's diabetes portfolio has grown by a 21% CAGR vs

industry growth of 18% over the last five years. It currently ranks 4th in Diabetes (vs 6th in FY17). Key in-licensed drugs include Eglucent (Eli Lilly), Ondero, Ondero Met, Gibtulio Met, and Ajaduo (Boehringer Ingelheim).

Lupin outperformed peers & Industry India to post 12% CAGR over FY20-22e

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Ranks 6th in IPM Filed force – 7000 NLEM contribution – 23% of sales

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LUPIN : COMPANY UPDATE

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Four out of five therapies outperformed market

Top 5 therapies Market Share

change in MS Growth (15-19)

Dec 15 Dec 19 Company Market Cardiac 23% 23% 0.1% 13 10 Anti Diabetic 16% 23% 7.1% 23 14 Anti-Infectives 21% 14% -6.7% 2 6 Respiratory 11% 12% 0.7% 14 8 Gastro Intestinal 7% 7% -0.2% 12 8 Top 10 brand performance and growth breakdown (Rs mn) Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 3 yr CAGR AIOCD Sales 3,840 4,126 4,730 5,418 12.2% Growth 13.9 7.5 14.6 14.5 Price 2.3 0.9 3.8 6.5 Volume 7.2 1.8 6.7 3.6 New Introduction 4.5 4.8 4.1 4.4 NLEM (%) 18% 16% 14% 13% 13% Non-NLEM (%) 82% 84% 86% 87% 87% Top 10 Brands Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 3 yr CAGR Gluconorm-G 132 174 193 231 254 14% Huminsulin 159 173 193 169 183 2% Budamate 79 103 112 117 130 8% Gibtulio 0 4 44 94 125 229% Ondero 1 28 50 79 110 58% Ondero Met 0 15 41 66 97 86% Tonact 95 97 89 92 97 0% Ivabrad 35 40 52 75 91 32% Cidmus 0 0 7 41 86 NA Rablet-D 51 61 67 72 73 6% Source: AIOCD AWACS, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Strong US pipeline under development

Lupin has one of the strongest pipelines under development, with an addressable market size of USD104bn, of which complex categories account for c.70% (including complex orals, other dosage forms,

and biosimilars). The pipeline includes Orals (30%), Injectables (12%), Biosimilars (32%), Inhalation (16%), Opthal (2%), Controlled substance (5%), and Others (3%).

Focus on Inhalation, Biosimilars and Injectables Year Market Size (USD bn) No. of launches Product category FY21 11 6 Inhalation & FTF FY22 7 10 Inhalation & FTF FY23 6 15 Inhalation, Biosimilar, Injectables, FTF FY24 16 11 Inhalation, Biosimilar, Injectables, FTF FY25 12 19 Inhalation, Injectables, FTF Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Therapy Market Size (USD bn) No. of Products Comments Inhalation 18 29 First MDI/DPI filed with more 6 MDI and 2 DPI under development.

Albuterol MDI (gProAir) filed - expect FY21 launch.

Tiotropium DPI (gSpiriva) filed - FTF status. Can launch in FY21.

gBrovana filed in the US

Fluticasone propionate / Salmeterol (gAdvair) in early stages.

Biosimilars 29 6 bEtanercept approved and launched in Japan. Under review in EU - 2HFY20 launch.

Partnered with Mylan (EU and other markets) and Nichi-Iko (Japan).

Pegfilgrastim - US clinical studies underway, advancing other programs

Injectables 15 30+ 4 injectables products approved; first launch in 2HFY20

10 depot Injectables. Advancing complex Inj. (depot, peptides, iron products) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, as of FY19

3RD largest in US generic market by prescriptions Marketed products -175 Market leader in 67 products and among top 3 in 126 of its products

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Regulatory issues remain a key overhang Plants Product capabilities Last inspected Status Nagpur Oral solid dosage, Injectables Jan-20 Form 483 with 2 observations. Classification awaited Vizag API Jan-20 Form 483 with 5 observations. Classification awaited Tarapur API Sep-19 Form 483 with 3 Observations and OAI Status Aurangabad Formulations May-19 EIR received. Form 483 with 3 observations Pune Research Centre Mar-19 NAI status

Goa Oral solid dosage Jan-19 Warning Letter since Nov 2017.Re-insepcted in Jan 2019. Form 483 with 2 observations and OAI status

Indore Unit - 2 Oral solid dosage, Ophtal Jan-19 Warning Letter since Nov 2017. Re-insepcted in Jan 2019. Form 483 with 6 observations and OAI Status

Mandideep Unit - 1 Cephalosporins - API Dec-18 Form 483 with 10 observations. OAI Status Mandideep Unit - 1 Cephalosporins - Formulations Dec-18 Form 483 with 8 observations. OAI Status Mandideep Unit - 2 cardiovascular (prils)- API Dec-18 Form 483 with 4 observations. Classification awaited Somerset Formulations Dec-18 Form 483 with 6 observations and OAI status Indore Unit - 3 Derma, Respiratory Oct-18 EIR received. Form 483 with 5 observations Vadodra Jul-16 EIR received. Form 483 with 2 Observations Indore Unit - 1 Oral Contraceptives Jul-17 EIR received Dabhasa API Jul-16 EIR received Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Consolidated) Rs mn Q3FY20 Q3FY19 YoY (%) Q2FY20 QoQ (%) Net Sales 37,693 39,473 (4.5) 37,381 0.8 EBITDA 4,291 6,816 (37.0) 4,965 (13.6) Other income 936 402 132.8 1,280 (26.9) Depreciation 2,532 2,190 15.7 2,526 0.3 Interest 886 785 12.9 826 7.3 PBT 1,809 4,244 (57.4) 2,893 (37.5) Tax 675 2,454 (72.5) 695 (2.9) Minority (64) (18) 245.7 27 (335.6) Adjusted PAT 1,197 1,808 (33.8) 2,171 (44.9) Extra ordinary income/ (exp.) 9,882 3,422 188.8 4,024 145.6 Reported PAT (8,685) (1,614) 438.1 (1,853) 368.6 EBITDA margins (%) 11.4% 17.3% (588) 13.3% (190) EPS 3 4 (33.8) 5 (44.9) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Margin Analysis

Q3FY20 Q3FY19 YoY (bps) Q2FY20 QoQ (bps) Material Expenses % Net Sales 36.1 34.2 190 36.0 11 Employee Expenses % Net Sales 19.7 17.7 196 20.3 (69) R&D Expenses % Net Sales 11.3 10.8 56 11.7 (31) Other Expenses % Net Sales 21.6 20.1 145 18.8 278 EBITDA Margin (%) 11.4 17.3 (588) 13.3 (190) Adj. Tax Rate (%) 35.0 57.8 (2,282) 24.0 1,097 APAT Margin (%) 3.2 4.6 (141) 5.8 (263) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Reveneus were marginally lower than expected led by muted growth in US and EMEA. Expects gross margins to improve significantly from FY21 EBIDTA margin came below expectations at 11.4% (down 588bps YoY, down 190bps QoQ) led by higher other exp (remediation cost, higher promotional spend) and R&D cost. R&D spend is to be maintained at ~10% of sales in FY21E Large one offs related to Gavis impairment, Japan divestiture led to reported loss of Rs83.5bn Expect tax rate of ~45% in Q4 and below 40% for FY21e

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Segmental Quarterly Performance Rs mn Q3FY20 Q3FY19 YoY (%) Q2FY20 QoQ (%) India 12,969 11,902 9.0 13,419 (3.4) US 13,766 14,174 (2.9) 13,244 3.9 APAC 1,722 1,369 25.8 1,585 8.6 EMEA 2,913 2,800 4.0 3,196 (8.9) LatAm 1,796 1,557 15.4 1,445 24.3 ROW 822 683 20.4 820 0.2 Formulations 33,988 32,485 4.6 33,709 0.8 API 3,173 3,624 (12.4) 3,052 4.0 other operating income 532 1,261 (57.8) 620 (14.2) Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

India branded formulations grew at `11% YoY. The co remains optimistic of its India growth on the back of a strong franchise in CVS, anti-diabetes, and inhalers In APAC, Lupin will continue to supply API, formulations to Kyowa. Philippines grew at 48% YoY in local currency terms In EMEA, S Africa/ Germany grew by 5%/38% in local currency terms In LATAM, Brazil/ Mexico’s grew by 14%/7% YoY in local currency terms

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Valuation and risks We rate Lupin as Neutral and target price of Rs705,

based on 20x FY22 EPS (in line with peers). Lupin has seen a sharp earnings cut of ~50%+ over the last three years on account of higher price erosion in the US. The product concentration risk has now reduced, and we expect its US business to post a 12% CAGR, led by three key assets – Levothyroxine, Solosec, and gProAir. However, the warning letter at two key facilities – Indore (OAI status on reinspection) and Goa, and OAI status at Somerset, Tarapur and Mandideep will remain a key overhang, in our view. Resolution of facilities is likely to be a key trigger in the near term.

Risks

Key downside risks: delay in resolution of the warning letter at Indore and Goa, escalation of OAI status at the Somerset, Mandideep and Tarapur facilities, delay in key approvals in the US, a slower ramp-up of Levothyroxine and Solosec, higher price erosion in the US, and an adverse outcome regarding drug price-fixing lawsuits in the US.

Key upside risks: faster ramp-up of Solosec and Levothyroxine, and faster resolution of facilities.

PER - Lupin

Source: Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Peer Set Comparison

Company Market Cap (Rs. bn)

CMP (Rs./ Sh) RECO TP

EPS CAGR

FY20-22E

PER(X) EV/ EBITDA (X) ROE

20E 21E 22E 20E 21E 22E 20E 21E 22E

Aurobindo 299 512 NA NA 10.5% 10.9 9.5 8.9 7.1 6.1 5.7 17.7 17.3 15.8 Cipla 354 439 BUY 510 10.2% 21.0 20.4 17.3 11.8 11.0 9.4 10.6 10.0 10.8 Dr. Reddy's 525 3,165 NEU 3,440 14.5% 24.1 22.4 18.4 16.4 13.1 11.1 14.4 13.7 14.6 Lupin 326 728 NEU 705 23.8% 31.6 26.1 20.6 15.0 13.0 10.9 7.2 8.2 9.6 Sun 1,025 429 NA NA 15.5% 22.6 19.2 17.0 14.2 12.3 11.1 10.5 11.2 11.7 Torrent 340 2,001 BUY 2,250 20.3% 36.3 30.9 25.1 17.2 15.3 13.4 17.9 19.0 20.8 Alkem 287 2,400 NA NA 16.5% 27.6 23.6 20.3 20.7 17.5 15.3 17.9 18.0 18.1 Cadila 280 273 NA NA 12.4% 19.4 16.9 15.3 12.9 11.6 10.8 12.7 13.4 13.7 Glenmark 90 318 NA NA 16.6% 12.4 10.3 9.1 7.0 6.1 5.5 12.0 12.6 12.8 Ipca Labs 156 1,238 NA NA 19.7% 26.0 21.2 18.2 17.3 14.7 12.7 17.5 18.2 18.0 Eris Lifesciences 71 512 NA NA 16.8% 20.0 17.3 14.7 17.0 15.0 13.0 26.8 25.2 22.5

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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Income Statement (Consolidated) Year to March (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Revenues 158,041 164,979 162,974 170,996 187,050 Material Cost 67,081 72,975 72,772 74,918 80,012 Gross Margins (%) 57.6 55.8 55.3 56.2 57.2 Personnel cost 28,647 31,513 31,381 32,923 36,023 Selling expenses 9,737 12,097 12,151 12,558 13,679 Administrative expenses 21,101 21,775 21,872 22,604 24,623 EBITDA 31,475 26,619 24,799 27,994 32,712 EBITDA Margins (%) 19.9 16.1 15.2 16.4 17.5 Depreciation 10,859 10,850 9,650 9,803 9,874 Interest 2,044 3,078 2,834 2,101 1,821 Other Income 1,504 5,843 4,420 4,770 4,940 PBT before EO items 20,076 18,534 16,734 20,860 25,957 Extra-ordinary Income / Exps 12,206 - - - - PBT after EO items 7,870 18,534 16,734 20,860 25,957 Tax 5,322 9,017 6,226 8,135 9,864 PAT 2,548 9,517 10,509 12,724 16,093 Adjusted Net income 14,718 9,466 10,455 12,668 16,034

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Year to March (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Shareholders Funds 135,770 137,422 144,884 154,560 167,601 Share Capital 904 905 905 905 905 Reserves & Surplus 134,865 136,517 143,979 153,655 166,696 Secured Loans 6,965 4,462 4,462 4,462 4,462 Unsecured Loans 64,463 80,500 54,310 47,310 40,310 Other Long Term Liabilities 5,258 7,296 7,296 7,296 7,296 Total Loans 76,686 92,258 66,068 59,068 52,068 Deferred tax liabilities 2,855 2,883 2,883 2,883 2,883 Minority Interest 401 469 522 578 637 Total Liabilities 215,712 233,031 214,357 217,089 223,189 Fixed Assets 79,135 87,064 51,124 49,421 47,647 C-WIP 25,982 16,397 27,374 27,374 27,374 Investments 267 1,856 1,856 1,856 1,856 Deffered Tax Asset 7,166 7,340 7,340 7,340 7,340 Goodwill on Consolidation 24,485 23,803 23,803 23,803 23,803 Current Investments 2,349 21,099 15,000 15,000 15,000 Inventories 36,625 38,368 38,096 39,974 43,759 Sundry Debtors 51,964 51,498 51,133 53,654 58,735 Cash & Bank Balance 14,080 9,872 21,496 21,642 22,541 Loans & Advances 15,682 14,936 15,979 17,128 18,391 Other Current Assets 5,319 7,262 7,262 7,262 7,262 Current Assets 126,018 143,033 148,965 154,659 165,687 Current Liabilities 35,916 33,567 33,466 34,556 37,368 Provisions 11,425 12,895 12,639 12,809 13,150 Net Current Assets 78,677 96,571 102,860 107,295 115,169 Total Assets 215,712 233,031 214,357 217,089 223,189

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Cash Flow Year to March (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E PBT 5,468 15,172 16,734 20,860 25,957 Depreciation and Amortisation 10,859 10,850 9,650 9,803 9,874 Interest and Finance Charges 2,044 3,078 2,834 2,101 1,821 Change in Working Capital -8,992 -5,132 -764 -4,288 -6,976 Direct Taxes Paid -5,584 -9,394 -6,226 -8,135 -9,864 Operating Cash Flows 30,956 16,567 22,229 20,340 20,812 Change in Fixed Assets -14,898 -9,599 15,313 -8,100 -8,100 Change in Investments 19,189 -24,268 6,099 - - Investing Cash Flows 4,699 -32,825 21,412 -8,100 -8,100 Proceeds from (Repayment of) Borrowings -8,953 12,922 -26,190 -7,000 -7,000

Issue of Equity Shares 1 1 - - - Interest paid -2,040 -2,804 -2,834 -2,101 -1,821 Dividend Paid -4,073 -2,713 -2,993 -2,993 -2,993 Financing Cash Flows -14,921 7,441 -32,017 -12,094 -11,814 Net Change in Cash 20,733 -8,817 11,624 146 898 Opening cash balance 6,875 14,164 9,872 21,496 21,642 Closing cash balance 27,608 5,348 21,496 21,642 22,541

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 58.5 57.0 56.3 57.1 58.1 EBITDA Margin 19.9 16.1 15.2 16.4 17.5 APAT Margin 9.5 5.9 6.5 7.5 8.7 RoE 10.8 6.9 7.2 8.2 9.6 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 9.8 7.4 7.3 9.4 11.5 RoCE 9.6 6.8 7.1 8.4 10.2 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 26.5 48.7 37.2 39.0 38.0 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 Inventory (days) 86 87 87 87 87 Debtors (days) 122 116 116 116 116 Other Current Assets (days) 12 16 17 16 14 Payables (days) 60 56 56 55 55 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 49 46 47 46 43 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 147 147 147 148 148 Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.0 3.1 1.8 1.3 0.9 Net D/E (x) 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 Interest Coverage (x) 10.1 5.1 5.3 8.7 12.5 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 32.5 20.9 23.1 27.9 35.4 Dividend 9.0 6.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 Book Value 299.5 303.1 319.6 341.0 369.7 VALUATION P/E (x) 22.2 34.6 31.3 25.8 20.4 P/BV (x) 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 15.4 15.0 13.0 10.9 EV/Revenues (x) 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 OCF/EV (%) 7.6 4.1 6.0 5.6 5.8 FCF/EV (%) 0.5 1.7 10.1 3.4 3.6 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) -1.5 7.0 4.3 2.2 2.3 Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 7-Feb-20 721 NEU 705

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

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Lupin TP

HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com

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