comparison of conventional vs oil sands...
TRANSCRIPT
Transborder Energy in North America
AGENDA
NACTS
Global perspective
North American perspective
Key Stone
Renewable Energy
NACTS
NACTS is a consortium of US, Canadian
and Mexican universities
We promote cooperation:
Security Competitiveness
Awareness Sustainability
We work for CSG State Alliance on Human
Trafficking, Waste Tires, Renewable Energy
ATTRIBUTION
Grants from Canadian DFAIT to Professor
Martin Pasqualetti and myself
Grant from Government of Quebec
Grant from U.S AID Mexico Mission
through Council of State Governments
Grant from U.S. EPA to SCERP
Humanity’s Top 10 Problems for the
Next 50 Years 1. Energy
2. Water
3. Food
4. Environment
5. Poverty
6. Terrorism and War
7. Disease
8. Education
9. Democracy
10. Population
Source: Nobel laureate, Richard Smalley
Greg Stringham, Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Overview and Outlook, Canadian
Association of Petroleum Producers, June 2006.
Canadian Oil Production Conventional, Oil Sands and Offshore
US Energy Needs Continue to Grow
http://wilcoxen.cp.maxwell.syr.edu/pages/804.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_oil
Trend in U.S. Oil Imports
Source: World Resources Institute: "Thinking long term: U.S. oil security and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Decline in Mexico Oil Production
http://www.writingshop.ws/html/meltdown.html
U.S. Dependency on Foreign Oil
http://www.mitenergyconference.com/2007/files/unconventionaloilpanel.pdf
Soheil Asgarpour, Alberta Department of Energy, “Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Sands
Development”, presented September 9, 2004, Ft. McMurray Conference.
Counting on the Oil Sands
Greg Stringham, Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Overview and Outlook, Canadian
Association of Petroleum Producers, June 2006.
Oil Sands are Creating Jobs Across
Canada
Source: The Pembina Institute..
Future Water Demands for In Situ
Oil Sands Production in Alberta
Greenhouse Gas
Emissions x2
The oil sands are the single largest factor in the growth in emissions.
Even in the best-case scenario, emissions will double by 2015 in the oil sands industry.
© 2005 The Washington Post, Photo by Melinda Mara
Soheil Asgarpour, Alberta Department of Energy, “Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Sands
Development”, presented September 9, 2004, Ft. McMurray Conference.
Sulfur Blocks
Natural Gas Development for Oil
Sands Production
http://www.borealbirds.org/images/mackenzie-map.jpg
Soheil Asgarpour, Alberta Department of Energy, “Opportunities and Challenges of Oil Sands
Development”, presented September 9, 2004, Ft. McMurray Conference.
Market Potential
NAFTA
NAFTA has special energy provisions that
respect Mexican nationalized oil
NAFTA has no “proportionality” rule for
Canadian oil only equal access which by
proximity means U.S. is free to import as
much as it wants
WHERE ARE WE?
North American Energy Working Group
Security and Prosperity Partnership
Bilateral Clean Energy and Climate Change
Science and Technology Agreement
North American Carbon Project
(US-MX) Presidents’ Task Force
PEAK OIL?
Debatable
End of cheap, easy, accessible oil
Could we drill our way to more?
Friendly oil
Peak cheap oil?
KEYSTONE 1
173 Bb of oil worth $15T being mined at
rate of 1.5Mb/d
Half can be moved south through a 2,000-
mile long $7B pipeline to Texas refineries
and made available to world market
Would create between 6000 and 20,000 jobs
May demand natural gas from Alaska
KEYSTONE 2
Relatively small additional GHG component
offset by C$15/t charge and sequestration
Leaks in current pipelines (more corrosive?)
raise risk to Great Lakes and Ogallala
aquifer if issues of pressure, thickness and
inspections are not resolved
First Nation concerns(water)
KEYSTONE 3
Department of State Presidential Permit
Insider negotiations
Outsourcing the environment
Interdependence, enabler, mass exporter,
conservation killer
Role and power of states
LAND SEIZURE
Voluntary purchase or Condemnation for
Eminent Domain in the Public Good
Appropriate now before the permit?
56 cases already
TransCanada or U.S. Keystone Pipeline
State right or court jurisdiction
NEED?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Bill
ion
Ga
llon
s
Source: EPI from EIA
U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption, 1950-2010, with Projection for 2011
Eart
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CHINA
Northern Gateway pipeline
Sinopec bought Daylight (which owns 320K
acres of Canada) for $2.1B cash
Consistent violator of WTO subsidy rules
for rare earths and renewable energy
Control of the sealanes
NAFT is both fair and tariff-free
BIG PICTURE
US-MX relations
Merida and Beyond
Four Pillars
Strong Resilient Communities
USAID and State Alliance
Border Research Partnership
RE IS
Regional Security
Jobs and Economic Development
Quality of Life
Environmental Quality
Climate Change Mitigation
RE IS
Resilience (Richness and Resistance)
Community driven
State-level controlled
Pillar
Relationship building (Plan Nord and US)
NAGES
North American Greenhouse Gas Exchange
Strategy
Undeniable U.S. thirst for oil paid for and
met by Canadian oil sands (for additional
GHG increment as a “security premium”)
(sequestration as enhanced oil recovery)
who buy offsetting credits from Mexico who
modernizes PEMEX, builds mass transit,
efficiencies, and renewable energy projects
CONTACT INFO
WWW.NACTS.ASU.edu
480-965-1846
Rick Van Schoik
Director, NACTS
Why and how develop and exchange
renewable energy across the border
Fall 2011