Renewable EnergyRenewable Energyin North in North AmericaAmerica

Rick Van SchoikDirector, NACTS

Renewable Energy Development

and Transborder Exchange

April 2011

AGENDA

Who we are: NACTS, BRP, SCERP Energy: Worldwide, MX, US

Why Renewable Energy (RE)

Why the exchange in borderlands

Why states have a role

Status and opportunities

Obstacles and roadmap

NACTS

Consortium of US, Canadian and Mexican universities: Promote concept of North America, Prosperity and Competitiveness, Borders and Security,

Environmental Commons/Future

ASU RENEWABLE ENERGY

Largest solar test facility in the U.S.

Light Works top research in world

Several algae fuel projects

Next generation energy research

Massive investment in powering campus with wind, solar, etc. as we move to become carbon-neutral

PARTNERS

Border Research Partnership

Waste Tires

Human Trafficking

Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy

BIG PICTURE: CONNECTIONS

Energy Is:

Quality of life

Water supply and quality

Economic development

Pollution and health impacts

Greenhouse gases and climate

Local, regional, and gobal

ENERGY

Energy is NOT indigenous to all parts of the border (Coal, oil and gas in east)

Generation and sources are connected:

Electricity (power lines)

Natural Gas (pipelines)

Petroleum (pipelines)

Siting of LNG plants

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

Reduced health-impacting air pollutants

Contained water pollution

Greenhouse climate shifting gases

Wild land defense

ENERGY SECURITY

Inter- not In-dependent

Local not global

Diversity of sources

Renewable (free)

Overall renewable sources promise security and sustainability

Mexico and RE

Multiple gains from RE at the border

Wind energy employment

STATE OF ENERGY TODAY

Peak oil or peak cheap oil or peak clean oil

Petro-dictators in MENA

Climate change/greenhouse gases

Watergy, foodergy,

Uneven binational relations

ALTERNATIVES

Threat from Fukushima seen as “indefinite’ with further damage “probable” and costs possibly into the trillions

The same week the renewable energy index hit RENIIX an all time high

STATE OF UNION

Clean energy standard: 80% by 2035

(Implies supply from friendly sources)

President Obama

January 2011

BACKDROP

In my own view 2010 was probably the greatest year of pain in terms of oil and gas development…all across the world.

Interior Secretary Salazar

Mexico City, April 4, 2011

CONGRESS

“The nation is going to need 40 to 50% more electricity before the end of the

decade. We’re not prepared. We need a long-term energy plan.”

Congressman Fred Upton

Chair, Energy & Commerce

NUMBERS

Oil over $110 per barrel

Arizona will need:

1 quadrillion BTUs just for transportation by 2030

10 new gigawatts of electricity by 2016

$100 billion for new infrastructure

FEDERAL FRAMEWORK

North American Energy Work group

Bilateral Framework on Clean Energy and Climate Change

North American Carbon Storage Atlas

Cross Border Task Force

Transboundary reservoir negotiations

OVERALL OBJECTIVE

The Merida Initiative and Beyond Merida support a 21st Century borderlands including strong, resilient communities.

Explore need, feasibility, and market for renewable energy development and transborder exchange

Now and in 2020, 2050, 2100

VISION

10 giga-watts of new RE

10% (1GW) exchanged

30,000 new jobs

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit Jobs

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit JobsAir

Qual

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit JobsAir

QualGHGGCC

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit JobsAir

QualGHGGCC

Qual of Life

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit JobsAir

QualGHGGCC

Qual of Life

Water

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit JobsAir

QualGHGGCC

Qual of Life

WaterPriceStab’y

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit JobsAir

QualGHGGCC

Qual of Life

WaterPrice

Stab’y Safety

Return on Investment

Invest-ment

Profit JobsAir

QualGHGGCC

Qual of Life

WaterPrice

Stab’y Safety

Secur-ity

WHY TRANSBORDER?

The region is a common economy with a common market for most products.

The region is an indigenous fuel pauper; most is imported.

Renewable energy can provide the linkage between the sides of the border and to the future.

JUXTAPOSITION

Presidents’ Cross Border Electricity

Task Force

Top Down

VALUE ADDITION

Bottom Up

WORKshop

Transborder Renewable Energy

Subnational Actors

ROLE OF SUBNATIONALS

Land use/siting

Tax incentives for manufacture, jobs, installation,

“Sell to grid”

Feed in Tariff (FIT) or Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)

Enterprise Zones

NOW AND NEXT

Some doing well (Californias)

Some doing OK (ERCOT)

Some not doing (Void in AZ/NM-SO)

All can do better

HISTORY

Energy interdependence has evolved

NAFTA accommodated

NAEWG facilitated

SPP embraced

Northern BC, MX is in WECC and electrons flow both ways

Why not for renewable energy as well?

PARADYGM

We are in emission and transmission transition

Recent transmission was built to locate generation in Mexico (energy maquiladora)

Connections are built just for RE

PROGRESS

State legislative scan

Geographic database

Price elasticity

Survey

Workshop

Trip to US-Canada border

SURVEY

83% believed RE would be cost competitive within 10 years

Clean jobs, economic development, and foreign direct investment

Lack of comprehensive policy/plan

Benefits of cross border exchange far outweigh costs and disadvantages

Wind, PV solar, geothermal

WORKshop PROCESS

Five complementary sessions:

Decision Science

Scenario Planning

Tours

HomeWORK

Plan for a Roadmap

GIS DATABASE

Interactive maps

http://174.129.155.124/layervis.html

ASU DECISION THEATER

Creation of a policy space through application of decision science to complex problems

SCENARIO PLANNING

Sustainability CompetenciesHow do we solve complex problems?

Complex problem constellations in thecurrent situation and their history

Future Scenarios:City of PHX

Future Scenarios:City of PHXNon-intervention

future scenarios

Visions:Sustainable PHX

Visions:Sustainable PHXSustainability

visions

Sustainable Development StraiesSustainable

Developme StrategiesSustainabilitytransition strategies

Intervention Point

LONG-TERM VIEW

OUTSIDE THE BOX

Mexico exports virtual water when it sends tomatoes north and Arizona exports water when it sends electrons to California from power plants.

Even if RE cannot be exchanged is it worth developing since we export virtual energy in the products, services and commerce that we exchange.

BE CREATIVE

Imagination is everything!…A Einstein

The role of the individual

WIND TUNNEL

ROADMAP

Level of governance

International and transboundary

Federal, constitutional, sovereign

Regional

Subnational (state, tribes, municipio)

Local

Private sector, NGO, trade, advocacy

Now 1 year 5 years 10 years

REGIONAL POLICY

Eneregionalism

Regional transmission siting authority

Regional RPS and tradeable REC

Regional clearinghouse (ASU DT)

Regional TEIA

Regional enereducation

CANADA INSIGHTS

Rocky road to integration

Natural north south orientation

Potential is not reality

Significant investment motivated by GCC and GHG concerns

Recognition of huge profits possible by directing excess, cheap RE south

Crown corporations make it happen

CONTACT INFO

WWW.NACTS.ASU.edu

NACTS@ASU.edu

480-965-1846