comparison of the 2008, 2010, & 2012 snapshots of tropical … · 2013. 2. 28. · comparison...

Comparison of the 2008, 2010, & 2012

Snapshots of Tropical Cyclone

R&D

Dr. Frank Marks (NOAA) and Dr. Ron Ferek (Navy)Co-Chairs, Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

(WG/TCR)

1

History of WG/TCR• February 2005: Federal Coordinator formed

Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR)

• February 2007: JAG/TCR work culminated with publication of Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

• Two Tables in the Plan:

Table 4‐1: Operational Priorities of the TC Forecasting & Warning Centers

Table 5‐1: Research Needs in Atmospheric and Ocean Science

• October 2008: First meeting of the WG/TCR

2

WG/TCR Objectives / Tasks

• Keep Tables 4‐1 and 5‐1 updated

Table 4‐1: Ops priorities (became Table 1)

Table 5‐1: Research needs (became Table 2)

• Map agency meteorological research efforts against TC research needs and operational priorities

• Analyze / compare results

• Update information at IHC

3

Research Needs

Table 2 4

Operational Priorities

•Table 1 Ops priorities extracted from FY11 JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO)

FromTable2

5

NHC & CPHC Priority

JTWC Priority Operational Need

Linkage to Research Needs

1 1 Guidance for tropical cyclone intensity change, especially for the onset,duration, and magnitude of rapid intensification events, as well as for over‐water rapid weakening events.

A1a‐h, B1‐B3,B5‐8

2 2 Improved capability to observe the tropical cyclone and its environment tosupport forecaster analysis and model initialization.

B1, C1‐C3

3 5 Statistically based real‐time guidance on guidance to assist in thedetermination of official track and intensity forecasts. This could include multi‐model consensus approaches, provided in probabilistic and other formats.

B5, B6, B8

4 4 Enhancements to the operational environment (e.g., ATCF, AWIPS‐ II) toincrease forecaster efficiency, by expediting analysis, forecast, coordination, and/or communication activities.

C1c

5 17 Techniques or products to support pre‐genesis disturbance track, intensity,size, and wind speed probability forecasts.

A3, B1‐B8

6 10 Advanced coastal inundation modeling and/or applications, visualization, ordissemination technology that enhances operational storm surge forecast accuracy or delivery.

A4, A5, B2,B3, B6, C1c

7 6 Improved and extended track guidance. Identification, and then reductionof, the occurrence of guidance and official track outliers, focusing on both large speed errors (e.g., accelerating recurvers and stalling storms) and large direction errors (e.g., loops), and on specific forecast problems, including interactions between upper‐level troughs and tropical cyclones, track forecasts near/over land or elevated terrain, and extratropical transition.

A2, B1‐B3,B5‐B6

8 3 Guidance for tropical cyclone genesis at both the short‐range (0‐48 hours)and the medium‐range (48‐120 hours) that exhibits a high probability of detection and a low false alarm rate, and/or provides probability of genesis.

A3, B1‐B3,B5‐B8

9 15 An extended (seven‐day or longer) climatology‐persistence skill baselinemodel for tropical cyclone track and intensity.

B8

10 11 Operational analysis of the surface wind field in tropical cyclones, includingthe analysis of the maximum sustained winds, and winds affecting elevated terrain and high‐rise buildings.

B1, B2, B8,C1‐C3

11 8 Guidance for changes in tropical cyclone size/wind structure and relatedparameters, including combined sea heights.

A1a‐g, B1‐B8

12 9 Single‐model track or intensity ensembles that have skill comparable tomulti‐model consensus techniques.

B6, B7

13 7 Techniques to improve the utility of microwave satellite and radar data fortropical cyclone intensity and location analysis (e.g. develop a “Dvorak‐like” technique using microwave imagery).

B1, C1c

14 12 Guidance for precipitation amount and distribution associated with tropicalcyclones and tropical disturbances.

A4, B1‐B8

15 13 Improved techniques for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclonespassing over and north of sea‐surface temperature gradients.

B8, C1

16 16 Develop tropical cyclone climatology software that provides statistics onclosest point of approach to a station, bearing and distance to a station, cyclone intensity statistics for a point or location, return period statistics, etc. The software must run on existing tropical cyclone databases, such as ATCF and the new NHC tropical cyclone database.

A1f, B1, B2,B8, C1c

17 14 Quantitative guidance tools for seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts, usingstatistical and/or dynamical methodologies.

A6, B2, B6,B8

Operational Priorities

•Table 1 Ops priorities extracted from FY13 JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO)

FromTable2

6

05

101520253035404550

A1

A1a

A1b A1c

A1d A1e A1f

A1g

A1h A

2A

2aA

2b A2c

A2d A

3A

3aA

3b A3c

A3d A

4A

4aA

4b A4c A

5A

5aA

5b A6

B1

B2

B3

B3a

B3b B3c

B3d B3e B

4B

5B

6B

7B

8C

1C

1aC

1b C1c C

2C

3 05101520253035404550

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Man

‐years

Intensity / Structure

Track Genesis QPF

Surge

[Seasonal]

Model Development

Obs

Combined Agency Data Graphedto Detailed Research Categories

Combined Agency Data Graphedto Ops Priorities

Research Compilation Process• Tabulated each agency’s research contribution; man‐years and $

258 projects (NOAA, NASA, Navy, NSF, USACE, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement)

• Mapped man‐years for each R&D activity to the Detailed Research Categories using Table 2 (see 1st graph)

• Mapped man‐years to ops priorities using column in Table 1 (see 2nd graph)

7

Comparison of 2008-2012 Snapshots

8

75755555

100100

Man‐years by Research Category

2008 Snapshot(Total Man‐years: 211)



+40% ‐22%

+9%

9

108

35

35

4210

Man‐years by Agency

+40% ‐22%

+9%10




$13,783

$9,590

$4,568 $6,037

$3,723

$12,454 NOAA Total$23,936

HFIP

2008 SnapshotTotal: $50,155K


Field Experiments: PREDICT, GRIP, IFEX, ITOP & Research Computer System (HFIP)


HFIP

Field Experiments: IFEX, HS3 & Research Computer System (HFIP)

Field Experiments: IFEX, TCS‐08

Total Support by Agency

+53% ‐33%

+3%

Funding decreasesto HMA and UAS R&D

11

$9,992

$6,998

$5,956$5,267

$6,369

$1,550

$15,361

NOAA Total$16,990

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 C1 C2 C3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


10

20

30

40

50

60


Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D – 2008-2012

Inte

nsity

/ St

ruct

ure

Trac

kG

enes

is

QPF

Surg

e

Seas

onal

Model Development Observations

2008 SnapshotTotal: 211 Man-years

HFIP


(HFIP Contribution: 75 man-years)

Inte

nsity

/ St

ruct

ure

Trac

kG

enes

is

QPF

Surg

e

Seas

onal


HFIP

Inte

nsity

/ St

ruct

ure

Trac

kG

enes

is

QPF

Surg

e

Seas

onal



(HFIP Contribution: 61 man-years)

12

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities

• On next two slides:

2008, 2010, & 2012 comparisons of the research needs mapped onto ops priorities

Used ops priorities published in the FY09 JHT AFFO

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities2008 Snapshot

(FY09 AFFO)NHC / CPHC

Total: 211 Man-years

2010 Snapshot(FY09 AFFO)




14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops PrioritiesJTWC2008 Snapshot

(FY09 AFFO)Total: 211 Man-years





15

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D

Closing Comments• Three snapshots that captured R&D activities

Represents the spectrum of R&D across the community Research influenced by ops priorities; provides mechanism for essential feedback

• With HFIP and four major field experiments, R&D increased markedly in 2010 snapshot compared to 2008 snapshot Deltas between 2008 and 2010 reflect HFIP, greater emphasis on field experiments

• HFIP funding decreases and fewer major field experiments resulted in a sharp decrease in R&D from 2010 snapshot to 2012 snapshot Deltas between 2010 and 2012 not only reflect HFIP funding decreases & timing of

field experiments, but reduced emphasis on NOAA UAS and Surge R&D.

• Intensity change is still #1 operational priority Research (basic and applied) is still required, but rapid progress is being made

High-resolution (<5km) models are demonstrating skill (occasionally remarkably so) Improved surface fluxes, more sophisticated physics, better initialization, etc. More sophisticated DA, resolving cloud scales (more realistic) Models are helping to identify other deficiencies when verifying obs. are available; helps

guide selection of future research topics

• Users would like the research community to take more of an interest in guidance decision tools

• We have a process to: Keep the operational centers’ priorities updated Assess and evaluate research that is addressing those priorities Allow research managers to make informed decisions for future investments Facilitate interagency collaboration and coordination

• Raises awareness of the importance of Research to Operations• Will complete 2012 snapshot and comparison to new operational

priorities (FY13 JHT AFFO)

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D

Dr. Frank MarksOAR/AOML/HRD (NOAA/DOC)

Dr. Ronald FerekONR (Navy/DOD)

Dr. Bradley SmullPhysical & Dynamic Met. (NSF)

Dr. Scott BraunGSFC (NASA)

Dr. James McFaddenOMAO/AOC (NOAA/DOC)

Dr. Robert RogersOAR/AOML/HRD (NOAA/DOC)

Dr. Mark DeMariaNESDIS (NOAA/DOC)

Lt Col Jonathan Talbot53rd WRS (AF/DOD)

Mr. James FranklinNWS/NHC (NOAA/DOC)

Mr. Stephen LingschHQ Navy (Navy/DOD)

Mr. Bob FalveyDirector, JTWC (AF/DOD)

Ms. Robbie HoodOAR (NOAA/DOC)

Mr. William CurtisU.S. Army COE (Army/DOD)

Mr. Fred ToepferNWS/OST (NOAA/DOC)

Mr. Jeffrey HawkinsNRL (Navy/DOD)

Dr. Alexis Lugo‐FernandezBOEMRE (DOI)

Dr. James GoerssNRL (Navy/DOD)

Lt Col Paul RoelleHQ AF (AF/DOD)

Dr. Gerald HeymsfieldGSFC (NASA)

Dr. Daniel MelendezNWS/OST (NOAA/DOC)

Ms. Sabrina TaijeronOFCM

Ms. Justyna NicinskaOAR (NOAA/DOC)

Col Gary KubatOFCM

WG/TCR

18

BACKUPS

19

NSF FY11 AND FY12

NOAA FY12

NAVY FY12

NASA FY11 AND FY12

OTHER FY12

2012 SNAPSHOT – FYs INCLUDED

2012 SNAPSHOT ‐ # OF PROJECTS (BACKGROUND FOR SLIDE #7)

NSF 66

NOAA 114

NAVY 35

NASA 40

OTHER 3

20

‐25‐20‐15‐10‐505

10152025


Man

years

FY12‐FY10

FY12‐FY10

Intensity

/

Structure

Track

Gen

esis

QPF

Surge

Season

al

Model System Development Observations

= ‐56 Man years

DA

Mod

el

Physics

Verification

Diagn

ostics

Ensembles

Res v

sPh

ys

Stat/D

yn

21

comparison of the 2008, 2010, & 2012 snapshots of tropical … · 2013. 2. 28. · comparison...

Documents