comparisons of dfsim, organoin and fvs

Comparisons of DFSIM, ORGANOIN and FVS

David MarshallOlympia Forestry Sciences Laboratory

PNW Research StationUSDA Forest Service

Growth Model Users GroupAugust 10, 2005

Model Comparisons

Based on work done while testing ORGANON version 8.

Model Comparisons

• Part 1 – “Out of the Box”• Part 2 – Plot Comparisons• Part 3 – Density Regimes

Model Comparisons

Part 1

“Out of the Box”

Model Comparisons – Part 1

• Will Focus on 4 Models– DFSIM– Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS)– ORGANON– TreeLab

• Does not suggest these are the best– Represent the heart of the DF region– DFSIM, FVS and ORGANON are widely used– Available for free on the internet

Model Comparisons – Part 1• DFSIM version 1.4

– Curtis and others 1986 (revised 1999)– Stand Model (annual)– http://forsys.cfr.washington.edu/~dfsim/

• FVS-PN (RV 01.11.2005)– US Forest Service, Forest Management Service Center– Tree Model (10-year increment - default)– http://www.fs.fed.us/fmsc/fvs/index.php

• ORGANON SMC version 7 and 8 (pre-release)– Hann and others at Oregon State University (1988 - 2004)– Tree Model (5-year increment)– http://www.cof.orst.edu/cof/fr/research/organon/

• TreeLab– Turnblom and students at the University of Washington (2001)– Stand Model (annual)– http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.smc/treelab/Website/TreeLab_home.htm

Model Comparisons – Part 1“Out of the Box”

• “Out of the Box” projections • Models

– DFSIM– TreeLab– ORGANON– FVS

• Site Index 121 feet• Planted to about 450 trees per acre• Trees List at 14 years• Growth to 64 years

Model Comparisons – Part 1 “Out of the Box”

• 14 - 64 years• Site Index 121 feet• Planted (450 tpa)

Out Of The Box Projections

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Tree

s Pe

r Acr

e DFSIM-70TreeLab

ORG7-520ORG8-520

FVS


0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Basa

l Are

a (ft

2 /acr

e)

DFSIM-70TreeLab

ORG7-520ORG8-520

FVS


• 14 - 64 years• Site Index 121 feet• Planted (450 tpa)


1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

5 5.5 6 6.5

ln(TPA)

ln(Q

MD-

inch

es) DFSIM

TreeLabORG7-520

ORG8-520FVS

SDI


0100200300400500600700

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Stan

d De

nsity

Inde

xDFSIM-70

TreeLab

ORG7-520ORG8-520

FVS-PN


• DFSIM– Default maximum RD = 70– Curtis suggests higher (seems to like RD about 80)


• DFSIM– Default maximum RD = 70– Curtis suggests higher (RD about 80)

• ORGANON– Default SDImax= 520– Some evidence suggest lower (480)



• ORGANON (version 7)– Default SDImax= 520– Some evidence suggest lower (480)

• FVS has extensive growth modifiers– Default SDImax (maximum BA) = 950– Growth multipliers for:

• Basal area growth• Mortality• Height growth• Crown change

Model Comparisons – Part 1FVS Adjustments

SDImax Growth Multipliers Projection at 54 years (4 cycles)

BAI MORT CR TPA BAPA CR

950 1.0 1.0 1.0 242 431 0.56

800 1.0 1.0 1.0 202 370 0.56

950 0.7 1.0 1.0 305 394 0.56950 1.0 1.1 1.0 230 404 0.56950 1.0 1.0 2.0 283 410 0.34650 0.7 0.8 2.0 254 276 0.34



• ORGANON– Default SDImax = 520– Some evidence suggest lower (SDImax = 480)

• FVS has extensive growth modifiers– Default SDImax (maximum BA) = 950 (lower to 650)– Growth multipliers for:

• Basal area growth (0.7x)• Mortality (1.1x)• Height growth (1.0x)• Crown change (2.0x)

Model Comparisons – Part 1 “Models Modified”

Modified DFSIM

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Tree

s Pe

r Acr

e

DFSIM-70

DFSIM-100

Modified - ORGANON V7

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Tree

s Pe

r Acr

e

ORG7-520

ORG7-480


0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Tree

s Pe

r Acr

eORG8-520

ORG8-480

Modified - FVS PN

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Tree

s Pe

r Acr

e

FVS

FVS-mod


Modified DFSIM

050

100150200250

300

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Basa

l Are

a (ft

2 /acr

e)

DFSIM-70DFSIM-100


050

100150200250300350

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Basa

l Are

a (ft

2 /acr

e)

ORG7-520ORG7-480


050

100150

200250

300

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Basa

l Are

a (ft

2 /acr

e)ORG8-520ORG8-480

Modified - FVS PN

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

Basa

l Are

a (ft

2 /acr

e)

FVSFVS-mod


• Looked at only the default 10-year time step for FVS.• Different time steps might have different properties

(TIMEINT keyword).

FVS Unmodified

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80

Total Stand Age

Basa

l Are

a (ft

2 /acr

e)

10-year time step (default) 5-year time step

Model Comparisons

Part 2

“Plot Comparisons”

Model Comparisons – Part 212 Stands

• 12 Stands (Plantations)– 5 Oregon– 4 Washington– 3 British Columbia

• Initial Tree List• Site Index Start of

Period

• 10-year net change


Mean Min. Max. SD

Total Age 28.6 18 40 7.0

Site Index 128.5 96 158 19.5

TPA 331.5 192.0 566.0 103.9

SDI 233.7 85.5 322.5 76.7

CR 0.64 0.45 0.88 0.13


WARNING

Because of the small number of plots, this should not be considered

a validation of the models.


10-Year Change (Actual – Predicted)Trees Basal Area (net) Crown Ratio

Mean(/acre)

SD(/acre)

Mean(ft2/ac)

SD(ft2/ac)

Mean SD

DFSIM 19.8 41.5 -5.1 17.0TreeLab 18.7 38.6 -3.2 18.1ORGANON V7 SMC -14.2 17.9 -4.5 12.2 -0.04 0.05

ORGANON V8 SMC -10.0 17.8 -3.9 11.8 -0.05 0.05

FVS PN -13.3 20.2 -40.4 38.9 -0.14 0.06

FVS Modified PN -2.4 19.9 -3.7 24.3 -0.07 0.06

- TPA = under predict mortality - BA/AC = over predict net growth


• Mortality– DFSIM and TreeLab over predicted– ORGANON and FVS under predicted

• Basal Area Growth– All over predicted but …– Heavily influenced by 3 youngest plots

• ORGANON tended to be the least variable• FVS needed lots of tweaking• Small Sample Size

Model Comparisons

Part 3

“Density Regimes”

Model Comparisons – Part 3Density Management Projections

• Models– DFSIM– TreeLab– ORGANON (SDImax=480)– FVS-PN– FVS-PN modified


• 3 Planting Densities and PCT (220 tpa)

• Site Index = 121 feet• Starting Age 14 years• Project to 54 years

• Models– DFSIM– TreeLab– ORGANON (SDImax=480)– FVS-PN– FVS-PN modified

Stand TPA BA QMD SDI

A 310 16.3 3.1 47

B 452 24.5 3.2 71

C 689 53.8 3.8 145


Projected to 54 years

0100200300400500

A B C B-PCT C-PCT

Density Regime

Tree

s Pe

r A

cre

DFSIM TreeLab ORGANON V7

ORGANON V8 FVS PN FVS PN modified


0100

200300400500

A B C B-PCT

Density Regime

Basa

l Are

a (ft

2 /acr

e)

Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4 Series5 Series6


0

510

15

20

25

A B C B-PCT C-PCT

Density Regime

Qua

drat

ic M

ean

DBH

(inch

es)

DFSIM TreeLab ORGANON V7ORGANON V8 FVS PN FVS PN modified


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

A B C B-PCT C-PCT

Density Regime

Tota

l Ste

m V

olum

e (ft

3 /acr

e)

DFSIM TreeLab ORGANON V7ORGANON V8 FVS PN FVS PN modified


Decrease average tree size with increasing growing stock

Thinning increased tree size

Increasing merchantable volume with increasing growing stock

SMALL increase from thinning in DFSIM and ORGANON V8and small decrease in FVS


0

5

10

1520

25

A B C B-PCT C-PCT

Density Regime

Qua

drat

ic M

ean

DBH

(inch

es)




0

5000

10000

15000

20000

A B C B-PCT C-PCT

Density Regime

mer

chan

tabl

e Vo

lum

e (ft

3/ac

re)



Model Comparisons – Part 3 Density Management Projections

SDI at 124 years

0100200300400500600

A B C

Density Regime

SDI




How did they get there?

Density Regime A (310 TPA)

0100200300400500600700

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

SDI

DFSIM-70

TreeLabORG7-520

ORG8-520FVS-PN

FVS-mod

Density Regime B (452 TPA)

0100

200300400500

600700

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

SDI

DFSIM-70

TreeLabORG7-520

ORG8-520FVS-PN

FVS-mod

Density Regime C (689 TPA)

0100200300400500600700800

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

SDI

DFSIM-70TreeLab

ORG-520ORG8-520

FVS-PNFVS-mod


FVS may require differentcalibrations?

FVS PN modified

0100

200300

400500

600

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

SDI

Regime A

Regime BRegime C

ORGANON Maximum Size Density

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 20 40 60 80

Total Age (years)

SDI ORG7-520

ORG8-520ORG8-000

ORGANON 8 may notneed maximum size-densityon (Monserud)


Projected Maximum MAI

0

100

200

300

400

500

A B C B-PCT C-PCT

Density Regime

Tota

l Ste

m V

olum

e (ft

3 /acr

e)



Projected Age of Maximum MAI

0255075

100125150

A B C B-PCT C-PCT

Density Regime

Tota

l Age

(y

ears

)



Conclusions

The End

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