COMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATIONCOMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATION

IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL

RESEARCH RESEARCH

www.ipam.org.brwww.ipam.org.br

COP 10, Buenos AiresCOP 10, Buenos Aires

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Socioambiental Institute, Brazil

Center for Meteorology and Climate Studies, Brazil

Environmental Defense, USA

Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, USA

Presented by

Marcio Santilli (IPAM; ISA)

Global CO2 EmissionsGlobal CO2 EmissionsD

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Global C Emission: ~75% Fossil Fuel ~25% Land Deforestation

Global CO2 EmissionsGlobal CO2 EmissionsD

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THE CASE OF BRAZILIAN THE CASE OF BRAZILIAN AMAZONIAAMAZONIA

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Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia 2003Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia 2003

Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.

DeforestationDeforestation 2002/20032002/2003

Deforestation until 2002Deforestation until 2002

60 millions ha deforested

16% of Brazilian Amazonia

Amazon Basin

5.3 million km2

1/3 world’s remaining tropical forest

30 % world’s flora and fauna

Deforestation: Yellow Deforestation: Yellow

Non-Forest: GrayNon-Forest: Gray

Blank areas : not availableBlank areas : not available imageimage

Deforestation in Deforestation in

Rondonia StateRondonia State

1986: ~2.8 1986: ~2.8 millions hamillions ha

Main RoadMain Road

Deforestation: Yellow Deforestation: Yellow

Non-Forest: GrayNon-Forest: Gray

Blank areas: not availableBlank areas: not available imageimage

Deforestation in Deforestation in

Rondonia StateRondonia State

1992: ~3.6 1992: ~3.6 millions hamillions ha

Deforestation: Yellow Deforestation: Yellow

Non-Forest: GrayNon-Forest: Gray

Blank areas : not processed Blank areas : not processed imageimage

Deforestation in Deforestation in

Rondonia StateRondonia State

1996: ~ 4.8 1996: ~ 4.8 millions hamillions ha

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Brazil Indonesia

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Deforestation in the FutureDeforestation in the Future

Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.

DeforestationDeforestation 2002/20032002/2003

Deforestation until 2002Deforestation until 2002

Business-as-usual

Forest Fire Emission: 0.2 PgC

Deforestation and Logging

Evapotranspiration Reduction

RAIN REDUCTION

Forest Flammability Increase

Forest Fire Increase

EL NIÑO

Investments on infra-structure

Global Warming

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The control of deforestation The control of deforestation to obtain compensationto obtain compensation

Is it possible to control deforestation?Is it possible to control deforestation?If yes, how?If yes, how?

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Examples of How to Control Deforestation? Examples of How to Control Deforestation?

The Case of Mato Grosso StateThe Case of Mato Grosso State

• Environmental Control System on Rural Properties Environmental Control System on Rural Properties (Program of License and Control Deforestation)(Program of License and Control Deforestation)

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New Approach

1. Focus on large properties (>500 ha) in critical areas;

2. Obligation for registry of properties

3. Emphasis on environmental assets

4. Use of information technology

5. Simplified licensing

Examples of How to Control Deforestation? Examples of How to Control Deforestation? D

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Obligation for registry of properties: the owners must present details about their property informing their

identification and address before to receive the registry

Results (2000-2001):

• 25% Reduction of deforestation compared to the deforestation trends of other states and to the last years

• Emission reduced 36 MTC

Source: Fearnside & Barbosa (2003): World Resource

Review

GDP Growth: 8%/yr

Cost of Program (US$ 3 million/yr (1999-2000)

Examples of How to Control Deforestation? Examples of How to Control Deforestation? The National Program to Control DeforestationThe National Program to Control Deforestation

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New Approach

1. The Control Program is under responsibility of 12 ministries;

2. Unrestricted availability of deforestation data to society

3. Deforestation in public forest became environmental crime

4. Deforestation monitoring in real time

5. Emphasis on land tenure and illegal appropriation of public land

Estimated Cost of Program (~US$ 130 millions 2004-2007)

Deforestation monitoring in real time

Deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to 07/May/204

Modis Image 07/May/2004

Deforestation 13/Aug/2003 to 07/May/2004

Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) +

deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to

07/may/2004 (red)

Deforestation verified between 13/Aug/2003 e

21/May/2004

Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) +

deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to

07/May/2004 (red) + deforestation in

21/May/2004 (orange)

Modis Mosaic 21/May/2004

Deforestation verified between 21/May/2004 and

08/Jun/2004

Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) +

deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to

07/May/2004 (red) + deforestation from

21/May/2004 (orange) + deforestation in

08/Jun/2004 (blue)

Modis Mosaic 21/May/2004

ATUALIZATION : fifteen days later

BRAZILINAN INITIATIVES RELATED TO CLIMATE BRAZILINAN INITIATIVES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGECHANGE

• PROÁLCOOL (20% of methanol added to gasoline)PROÁLCOOL (20% of methanol added to gasoline)

• Flexpower cars (use any combination of methanol and gasoline)Flexpower cars (use any combination of methanol and gasoline)

• PROINFA (Program for renewable energy: from 3,1% of total PROINFA (Program for renewable energy: from 3,1% of total 2004 to 5,9% in 2006). 2004 to 5,9% in 2006).

BIODIESEL (PROGRAM OF VEGETAL FUEL BIODIESEL (PROGRAM OF VEGETAL FUEL PRODUCTION)PRODUCTION)

•PROAMBIENTE (ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS FOR PROAMBIENTE (ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS FOR FARMERS) FARMERS)

• PROARCO (FIRE PREVENTION IN AMAZONIA)PROARCO (FIRE PREVENTION IN AMAZONIA)

• PROTEGER/GTAPROTEGER/GTA

• NATIONAL PROGRAM TO CONTROL AMAZONIAN NATIONAL PROGRAM TO CONTROL AMAZONIAN DEFORESTATION DEFORESTATION

• NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR FORESTRYNATIONAL PROGRAM FOR FORESTRY

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2050 Business as Usual Scenario:Deforested 2,698,735 km2 (16 PgC release by 2050)Forest 3,320,409 km2

Non-forest 1,497,685 km2

500 km Soares-Filho et al. 2004

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2050 Governance Scenario:Deforested 1,655,734 km2 (Reduction: 40%)Forest 4,363,410 km2

Non-forest 1,497,685 km2

500 km

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Tropical Forest and Climate ChangeTropical Forest and Climate ChangeD

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Under the Protocol at present …

• forests treated as “sinks” – native forests seen as insignificant to the stability of the climate system

and confused with tree plantations.

• developing countries have no incentives to reduce or avoid emissions from deforestation (25% of

global GHG emissions)

• Tropical forests are not considered, but northern forests (Article 3.3) and plantations (CDM) are

credited

• HOW TO ADDRESS EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTION?

Compensated Reduction of DeforestationCompensated Reduction of DeforestationD

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Concept for non-project based reduction of tropical deforestation emissions

1. Baseline derived from average annual deforestation for 1980’s (using satellite imagery) for tropical countries.

2. Tropical countries that elect to reduce their national emissions from deforestation below baseline during a commitment period,

and demonstrate success, authorized to issue “carbon certificates” post facto (IPCC could establish common criteria for baselines and equivalence

between deforestation and carbon stocks).

3. These countries agree not to increase (or to further reduce) deforestation in subsequent commitment periods.

4. Baseline revised after 20yrs.

5. Only a portion of the certificates might be valid for offsets in first period. Others could be valid for second and subsequent

commitment periods.

Compensated Reduction of DeforestationCompensated Reduction of Deforestation

Source: INPE 2003

* Decade mean

** Biennium mean

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000Baseline: 20.000 km2 Reduction of

Deforestation

% reduction of deforestation = ~ 5%

Avoided Emission: mean of 12 Million Tons C/yr

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Photo by Patrick McFeeley

Thank you Thank you !!