complexity science approaches to disruptive events

Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events

Averil Horton

Brunel University, UK

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011


Backcasting Causal layered analysis Delphi Diagnotstic Indicators Dialogue Driver analysis Folksonomies Gaming Horizon scanning Indicators & Warnings Issues trees Modelling and simulation Narrative Plausibility matrix Reverse engineering Review of abstracts Roadmaps Scenarios Seven questions STEEP Systems maps The Fifth scenario Trend analysis Visioning Windtunnelling


Agents, of a variety of types, use their strategies, in patterned

interaction, with each other and with artefacts. Performance

measures on the resulting events drive the selection of agents

and/or strategies through processes of error-prone copying and

recombination, thus changing the frequencies of the types

within the system.

A Complexity Definition


Complex Systems Element Taxies in a big city Example Flying flock of birds Example

Agents.. Cab drivers (and their customers)… Birds in a flock

..of a variety of types Experienced, new, clean, not clean, night, cheating

Experienced, young, male, female, hungry

..use their strategies (rules)..

1 Minimise time to find customer2 Go where customer wants

1 Avoid crowding neighbours2 Steer towards the average heading of neighbours3 Move toward the average position of neighbours ..in patterned

interaction, with each other..

Customer directs drive, pays driver. Driver drives customer to location

Fly together to locations without crashing

..and with artefacts. Money, cars, phonesWind, wings?!

Performance measures on the

resulting events..

Profit made, car undamaged Don’t hit obstacleDon’t loose the flock

..drive the selection of agents and/or

strategies..

Drivers who don’t make enough profit go out of businessCars that are damaged reduce drivers profit

Die if hit obstacleGet eaten by predator if loose the flock

..through processes of error-prone

copying and recombination..

Try out strategies of other successful drivers – jumping lights, cleaning cab

Try out strategies to get to best food-position in flock – fly faster, slower

..changing the frequencies of the types

within the system.

More successful drivers, fewer new drivers, more cleaner cabs

More faster flyers


• embrace emergence

• focus on interactions

• recognise that even the most basic rules can change

• work with phase change

• accept there may be no early warning signals

• recognise that tiny, trivial, issues can have a huge effects

• visualise situations from very different perspectives, including some that appear impossible now

• provide both optimisation and exploration processes

Complexity tell us that Foresight Techniques must…


Reframing is…

• Changing the way you think

• …the way you see things

• …….. and the way you understand things

So that you can

• Not try to solve problems using the same frame they emerged from

• Generate new solutions

• Enable alternative actions


A short story…..

the ‘shadow of the future’


Benefits of Reframing

• Realising that you have more choices than you thought

• Being aware that you already have own frames

• Bringing something new into existence

• Creating something outside the cone of possibilities

• Deconstructing an existing frame to show others that they are stuck in one frame

• Being able to switch between frames


Neuroscience tells us that Futures Techniques must…

• use a right approach to provide insights and alternative perspectives that can’t be brought about by an effort of will (sleep example)…

• … but enrich the results using the left…

• …apply the results with the right…

• …present results to the world of work with the left

• exploit the right brain’s ability to hold conflicting views at the same time


Policy Making Implications

Discover new policy problems

or opportunities.

Scope or define a policy area and

determine a vision

Identify policy options.

Test policy options

Implement policy.

Monitor policy

Conceptual Policy Making Process


Promoting Variation


Promoting Variation

Creating an enabling environment for variation.

Studying from past and current experiences and adapt as needed

Promoting variation


Promoting Variation

Policy Direction Policy Design Policy Delivery1 Identify a set of alternative response strategies that can be undertaken

2 Understand the resources or skill-sets required for the deployment of each of these alternative strategies and facilitate adoption and deployment of these strategies through appropriate policies to minimize risks. 3 Identify and characterise the probable conditions of risk relating to alternative options and identify strategies to minimize the projected risks.

4 Scenario analysis and planning methods can be used for identifying such risks

1 Facilitate the smooth transition of each of identified response strategies into the operation phase

2 Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies.

3 Provide a range of policy options

4 Design and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single policy objective

5 See and make linkages with other policies that have similar intent

1 Comparative analysis of the costs of implementation and benefits accrued on implementation of each of the strategies needs to be undertaken in a regular manner to update on the efficiency of each of the strategies as newer conditions unfold and emerge

2 Monitor and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation

3 Incorporate feedback from the grassroots level where variation needs to be promoted.

4 Observe which policies work well and strengthening those policies


Promoting Variation

Policy Direction Policy Design Policy Delivery1 Identify a set of alternative response strategies that can be undertaken

2 Understand the resources or skill-sets required for the deployment of each of these alternative strategies and facilitate adoption and deployment of these strategies through appropriate policies to minimize risks. 3 Identify and characterise the probable conditions of risk relating to alternative options and identify strategies to minimize the projected risks.

4 Scenario analysis and planning methods can be used for identifying such risks

1 Facilitate the smooth transition of each of identified response strategies into the operation phase

2 Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies.

3 Provide a range of policy options

4 Design and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single policy objective

5 See and make linkages with other policies that have similar intent

1 Comparative analysis of the costs of implementation and benefits accrued on implementation of each of the strategies needs to be undertaken in a regular manner to update on the efficiency of each of the strategies as newer conditions unfold and emerge

2 Monitor and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation

3 Incorporate feedback from the grassroots level where variation needs to be promoted.

4 Observe which policies work well and strengthen those policies


To conclude….

It↔ is ↔ all ↔ about ↔ relationships ↔ & ↔ interactions

Think emergence

Impossible is only an opinion

You can hold two opp

(It is good to be dreamy and think inattentively)

& phase change

Seeing things differently is

essential

osite opinions at the same time

complexity science approaches to disruptive events

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