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Arden Arcade Incorporation Study Comprehensive Fiscal AnalysisPublic Hearing
April 7, 2010Carlos Villarreal and Eric Nickell
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IntroductionPresentation Outline
• Introduction• Approach• Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis
–Boundary alternatives–Costs–Revenues–Net fiscal impact
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Introduction
• Key Dates and Time Frames– County cost and revenue data from FY2008-09 budget
actuals– All costs and revenues in constant 2009 dollars– Date of incorporation = July 1, 2011– Transition year = July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2012– Ten-year planning horizon for fiscal projection (through
FY2020-21)
• Methodology– Based on LAFCO guidelines– State Statue (Cortese-Knox-Hertzberg Act)
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Approach
• Focus on costs of providing services• Includes estimated revenue neutrality
calculations• Two boundary alternatives• Maintain current levels of service• Two Funds:
– General Fund– Road Fund
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Two Boundary Alternatives
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Land Use AssumptionsResidential
• Current trends–Arden Arcade is a relatively built out area–Most new construction is renovation or
replacement–Gradual increase in housing units
• Growth projection based on vacant parcel data available as of April 2009, from Sacramento County
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Land Use AssumptionsCommercial
•Current trends– Low demand for retail development in near
term– Gradual market recovery
•Growth projection based on vacant parcel data in Sacramento County– Retail: 177,000 SF to be developed– Office: 82,000 SF to be developed
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Providers of Municipal Services
Service Current Provider Future Provider
Animal Control Sacramento County City (contract with County)Electric and Gas Public and private utility companies No change
Fire and EMS Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District No changeFlood Control American River Flood Control District No change
General Government Sacramento County CityLibrary Sacramento County No change
Parks and Recreation
Arcade Creek Rec. and Park District; Arden Manor Rec. and Park District; Arden Park Rec. and Park District; Fulton-El Camino Rec. and Park District;
Mission Oaks Rec. and Park District
No change
Planning Sacramento County CityPolice Sacramento County City (contract with County)
Public Protection California State Highway Patrol City (contract with CHP)Public Works (incl. Road Maintenance) Sacramento County City (contract with County)
Solid Waste Collection Sacramento County No changeSolid Waste Disposal Sacramento County No changeTelecommunications Private utility companies No change
Water
Cal American Water Company; Carmichael Water District; City of Sacramento; Del Paso Manor Water
District; Sacramento County Water Agency; Sacramento Suburban Water District; Southern
California Water Company
No change
Wastewater Sacramento Area Sewer District; Sacramento Regional County Sanitation District
No change
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Costs Staffing & Other Costs (Excluding Police)
•Costs are based on maintaining the existing County service levels for new city
•Comparable city data used to develop: –Staffing levels–Salary levels–Benefit levels
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Comparable CitiesStaffing & Other Costs
•Comparable cities used in analysis:– Elk Grove– Folsom– Rancho Cordova– Roseville– Rocklin– Woodland– West Sacramento– Citrus Heights
– Davis– Auburn– Placerville
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Costs Law Enforcement Contract
• Costs maintain current level of service, per County data:– $14.0 million for Scenario 1 in Base Year– $14.5 million for Scenario 2 in Base Year
• Costs include sworn positions, non-sworn positions, vehicles, services and supplies.
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$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Roads
Police
Development ServicesCity Administration
(In $
1,00
0s)
CostsGeneral and Road Funds – Scenario 1
Other
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$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Roads
Police
Development ServicesCity Administration
(In $
1,00
0s)
CostsGeneral and Road Funds – Scenario 2
Other
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RevenuesGeneral and Road Funds• Property tax• Sales tax
– GIS maps / County development data– SBOE sales tax data by address– New sales tax based on assumption of $340 retail sales per square
foot, based on the Urban Land Institute’s Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers 2008
• Vehicle license fees (AB 1602 and SB 301 apply)• Gas tax• Other
– Property transfer tax– Franchise fees– Business license fees– Fines and penalties– Interest
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$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
RevenuesGeneral and Road Funds – Scenario 1
Other Revenue
Vehicle License Fees
Sales Tax
Property Tax
(In $
1,00
0s)
Gas Tax
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$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
RevenuesGeneral and Road Funds – Scenario 2
Other Revenue
Vehicle License Fees
Sales Tax
Property Tax
(In $
1,00
0s)
Gas Tax
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(in $
1,00
0,00
0s)
Costs and Revenue SummaryAll Funds – Scenario 1
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total Revenues
Total Costs
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(in $
1,00
0,00
0s)
Costs and Revenue SummaryAll Funds – Scenario 2
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total Revenues
Total Costs
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Comprehensive Fiscal AnalysisEvaluating Results By Fund
• Conditions for determining feasibility:– Net revenues = greater than - 10% of total costs – Fund balance = greater than 10% of total revenues
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Net RevenueGeneral Fund – Scenario 1
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Net RevenueGeneral Fund – Scenario 2
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Net RevenueRoad Maintenance Fund – Scenario 1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Net RevenueRoad Maintenance Fund – Scenario 2
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Fund BalanceGeneral Fund – Scenario 1
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
(in $
1,00
0,00
0s)
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Fund BalanceGeneral Fund – Scenario 2
(in $
1,00
0,00
0s)
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Fund BalanceRoad Fund – Scenario 1
(in $
1,00
0,00
0s)
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Fund BalanceRoad Fund – Scenario 2
(in $
1,00
0,00
0s)
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Questions, Answers, & Discussion