conference call Čez 1st half 2005 results unaudited, unconsolidated according to ifrs

34
CONFERENCE CALL ČEZ 1st HALF 2005 RESULTS UNAUDITED, UNCONSOLIDATED ACCORDING TO IFRS Prague, August 1, 2005

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CONFERENCE CALL ČEZ 1st HALF 2005 RESULTS UNAUDITED, UNCONSOLIDATED ACCORDING TO IFRS. Prague, August 1, 2005. AGENDA. Economic performance Petr Vobořil, Chief Finance Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors Sales performance and strategic initiatives - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CONFERENCE CALLČEZ 1st HALF 2005 RESULTS

UNAUDITED, UNCONSOLIDATED

ACCORDING TO IFRS

Prague, August 1, 2005

2

Economic performance Petr Vobořil, Chief Finance Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of

Directors

Sales performance and strategic initiativesAlan Svoboda, Chief Sales Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors

AGENDA

3

Price of ČEZ’s share on the Prague Stock Exchange rose during 1st half from CZK 341 to CZK 471 (by 38 %) and reached CZK 525 on July 29, 2005.

ČEZ, a. s. will pay a dividend of CZK 9 per share for 2004; the total amount of the dividend pay-out will be CZK 5.3 bn.

EBIT grew by 58 % to CZK 10.9 bn y-on-y, increase of CZK 4 bn. 

Net income rose by 111 % to CZK 10.9 bn (increase of CZK 5.7 bn) y-o-y.

We are increasing our full 2005 net income forecast from CZK 13.5 bn to CZK 15.2 bn.

ROE increased by 96% y-o-y; we expect a 38% increase on annual basis.

VISION 2008 on track.

Plans for lignite plants portfolio renewal – finalized.

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN 1st HALF 2005

4

Share price and stock exchange indices%

PRICE OF ČEZ’s SHARE ON PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGE ROSE DURING 1st HALF FROM CZK 341 to CZK 471 (BY 38.2 %) AND REACHED CZK 525 ON JULY 29, 2005

Source: ČEZ and EEX

January February March April May June July

Movement in ČEZ‘s share price - June 2004 - 2005 ~ 155% - January - June 2005 ~ 38%

*) The modified PX-50 has been re-calculated to eliminate the influence of movements in ČEZ‘s share price.

90 %

100 %

110 %

120 %

130 %

140 %

150 %

160 %

Bloomberg European Utilities

Index

ModifiedPX-50 *

ČEZ, a. s.

470.8

340.7

524.5

5

HAVING REACHED ALL TIMES HIGH OF CZK 535.5 PER SHARE ČEZ, A. S. BECAME THIRD BIGGEST CENTRAL EUROPEAN COMPANY BY MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Source: Analysts‘ reports

+ 59 %+ 70 %+ 31 % Third biggest in Central Europe (incl. financial institutions)

Biggest in Visegrad 4 Biggest in new EU Member States

Market capitalizationbn EUR

Growth:

*) Bank Austria Creditanstalt**) Raiffeisen International

6.6

10.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

PKO BP

(PL)

Raiff.

(A

)**

TPSA (P

L)

Telek

om A

ustria

(A

)

OTP (H

)

MOL

(H)

Erste

Ban

k (

A)

ČEZ, a. s

. (C

Z)

OMV

(A)

BA-CA

(A)*

December 31, 2004

July 27, 2005

6

ČEZ, a. s. WILL PAY DIVIDEND OF CZK 9 PER SHARE FOR 2004. TOTAL DIVIDEND PAY-OUT WILL BE CZK 5.3 bn.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 E2005 E2006 E2007

CZK bn

0

2

4

6

8

10

12CZK per share

Amount of dividends Dividend per share

22.5

4

8

9

1.21.5

2.7

4.75.3

7

EBIT INCREASED Y-O-Y BY 58 % TO CZK 10.9 bn, INCREASE OF CZK 4 bn

(CZK m)1st half

2004

1st haIf

2005

Diff.

05-04

Index

05/04

(%)

Revenues 31,099 33,770 2,670 108.6

Sales of electricity 29,904 32,522 2,617 108.8

Heat sales and other revenues 1,195 1,248 53 104.4

Operating expenses 24,172 22,839 -1,333 94.5

Fuel 7,199 7,048 -152 97.9

Purchased power and related services 4,565 3,663 -902 80.2

Repair and maintenance 1,290 1,120 -170 86.8

Depreciation and amortization 6,792 6,732 -59 99.1

Salaries and wages 2,009 1,932 -77 96.2

Materials and supplies 839 789 -50 94.0

Other operating expenses 1,478 1,556 77 105.2

Income before other expenses/incomeand income taxes (EBIT)

6,927 10,931 4,003 157.8

Main impacts

higher wholesale margins

more effective use of low cost plants

repairs and maintenance costs decrease

8

NET INCOME GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 111 % TO CZK 10.9 bn (INCREASE OF CZK 5.7 bn)

Main non-operating impacts

+ 4.0 dividends received

+ 0.6 creation and settlement of allowances

- 1.9 income tax

- 1.0 interest on nuclear provisions

- 0.8 interest on debt

- 0.7 foreign exchange rate losses

(CZK m)1st half

20041st half

2005Diff.

05-04

Index05/04(%)

Income before other expenses/incomeand income taxes (EBIT) 6,927 10,931 4,003 157.8

Other expenses/income 354 -1,854 -2,208 x Interest on debt 715 764 49 106.8

Interest on nuclear provisions 980 1,025 45 104.5Interest income -61 -71 -10 116.7Foreign exchange rate losses/gains, net 159 676 516 423.9Other expenses/income, net -1,440 -4,247 -2,807 294.9from which: dividends received -1,679 -3,963 -2,285 236.1

creation and settlement of allowances 0 -608 -608 x Earnings before taxes 6,574 12,785 6,211 194.5Income taxes 1,403 1,889 487 134.7

Net income 5,171 10,896 5,725 210.7

9

WE INCREASE OUR FULL 2005 NET INCOME FORECAST FROM CZK 13.5 bn TO CZK 15.2 bn

10.415.2

13.2

1.0

2.6 0.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

NET INCOM

E 200

4

NET INCOM

E 200

5 (p

lan)

Divid

ends

rece

ived

Operat

ing a

nd oth

er it

ems

Foreig

n exc

hange

rate

loss

es/g

ains

NET INCOM

E 200

5 (fo

reca

st)

+ CZK 2 bn+ 15.4%

CZK bn

10

+ 38.1%

3.4

6.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1st half of 2004 1st half of 2005

ROE INCREASED BY 96% Y-O-Y; WE EXPECT 38% INCREASE ON ANNUAL BASIS

Return on Equity (net)%

+ 95.8%

6.6

9.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2004 E2005

11

394

488

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1st half of 2004 1st half of 2005

+ 23.8%

VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE AND MONTH INCREASED BY 24 %

Value added per employee and monthCZK / month / person

390

471

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2004 E2005

+ 20.8%

12

RATING BY MOODY’S AND STANDARD & POORS IMPROVED

Standard & Poor’s

confirmed long-term rating BBB+, changed outlook from stable to positive (May 2005)

Moody’s

changed long-term rating from Baa1 to A3, outlook unchanged(June 2005).

Standard & Poor’s

Moody’s

ČEZ, a. s.

CzechRepublic

Credit rating of ČEZ, a. s. and the Czech Republic

BBB+

A-

A3

A1

CzechRepublic

ČEZ, a. s.

Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa1 A3 A2 A1

A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+

13

66.2 69.5

10.4 22.8

173.4178.9

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

31.12.2004 30.6.2005

Current assets

Other non-currentassets

Property, plant andequipment

ASSETSCZK bn

BALANCE SHEET REMAINS ROBUST

255.5 265.7

Increase in cash and cash equivalents by 8.4 CZK bn

255.5 265.7

EQUITY & LIABILITIESCZK bn

Increase in financial investments

38.1 38.0

29.3 29.611.9 14.013.8

17.1

162.4 167.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

31. 12. 2004 30. 6. 2005

Current liabilities

Deffered tax liability

Nuclear provisions

Long-term liabilitiesexcl. provisions

Equity

Increase especially in liabilities from dividends declared

Profit of period, net of dividends

14

Increase in cash flow from operating activities in the 1st half 2005 is mainly due to favourable development of the electricity sales.

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES INCREASED

11,414,0

0

5

10

15

20

25

CZ

K b

n

Other

Interest paid, net of interestcapitalized

Income taxes paid

Foreign exchange rate loss/gain,net

Interest expense, interest incomeand dividends income, net

Amortization of nuclear fuel

Changes in assets and liabilities

Depreciation and amortization

Income before income taxes

Net cash provided by operatingactivities

1st half 2004

Annual increase:+ 23.2%

1st haIf 2005

11.414.0

15

Long-term indebtedness Total indebtedness with provisions excluded

DEBT RATIOS REMAIN BEST IN THE INDUSTRY

%

16.414.3

26.224.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

As of June 30, 2004 As of June 30, 2005

14.9

11.5

23.9 24.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2004 E2005

Limit for Total Indebtedness is 50%(limit results from current loan agreements)

16

OVERVIEW OF KEY SUBSIDIARIES UNCONSOLIDATED H1 2005 RESULTS

146

286

161

561

ČEZnet

14 38 25

84 698 150

24

20

ČEZ Měření

274

37

ČEZData

25

25

ČEZZákaz.služby

54

184

67

1,570

ER Pleven

120

252

160

1,573

ER Sofia Oblast

229

450

280

2,863

ER Stolichno

705

1,157

833

6,421

VČE

644

1,254

879

6,726

STE

860

1,449

1,037

7,708

SME

668

1,223

889

6,207

SČE

10,896

17,663

10,931

33,770

ČEZ

514 Net Profit

4,408 Sales

871

638

ZČE

EBITDA

EBIT

Company Name

As of June 30, 2005 consolidated ČEZ Group

consisted from 32 companies fully consolidated

and 6 companies consolidated by equity method.

1st half 2005

CZK m

Net Profit

Sales

EBITDA

EBIT

Company Name

ČEZ, a. s. andelectricitydistributioncompanies

Other companies

17

Economic performancePetr Vobořil, Chief Finance Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors

Sales performance and strategic initiativesAlan Svoboda, Chief Sales Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors

AGENDA

18

Virtual power plant and wholesale electricity auctions to start in the next few days.

Having received 36.9 m metric tons CO2 emission permits, ČEZ can increase power generation in lignite power plants by 5.3% compared to 2004.

ČEZ increased utilization of power plants with lower costs.

ČEZ increased domestic electricity supplies by 0.8 %.

HIGHLIGHTS OF 1st HALF 2005

19

VIRTUAL POWER PLANT AND WHOLESALE AUCTIONS TO START IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS

Virtual Power Plant

Based on the decision of the Czech Antitrust Office (related to acquisition of SČE distribution company), ČEZ will hold an auction to sell a Virtual Power Plant with capacity of 400 MW (lowered during summer to 240 MW); the electricity volume to be sold will be approximately 3.2 TWh.

Auction starts on August 3, 2005. To date 17 parties have expressed interest. Important price signal for the wholesale auction of Duhová Power.

Wholesale auction

Wholesale auction to sell supply for 2006 will follow the Virtual Power Plant auction.

20

GAP BETWEEN ELECTRICITY PRICES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND ABROAD WIDENS

Germany *

Czech Republic **

Wholesale electricity prices2000 index

* Baseload ** Average price charged by ČEZ, a. s. for supply to regional distribution

companiesEZ

40 - 45 EUR

60

80100

120

140160

180

200

220240

260

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

?

21

FOREIGN PRICES CONTINUE GROWING SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED DEMAND AND SUPPLY UNPREDICTABILITY

Source: EEX

Spot prices on German exchange EEX (baseload)

EUR/MWh

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

4.1.

2005

18.1

.200

5

1.2.

2005

15.2

.200

5

1.3.

2005

15.3

.200

5

29.3

.200

5

12.4

.200

5

26.4

.200

5

10.5

.200

5

24.5

.200

5

7.6.

2005

21.6

.200

5

5.7.

2005

19.7

.200

5

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

4.1.

2005

18.1

.200

5

1.2.

2005

15.2

.200

5

1.3.

2005

15.3

.200

5

29.3

.200

5

12.4

.200

5

26.4

.200

5

10.5

.200

5

24.5

.200

5

7.6.

2005

21.6

.200

5

5.7.

2005

19.7

.200

5

Forward electricity prices for the year 2006 on German exchange EEX (baseload) EUR/MWh

22

FOLLOWING ALLOCATION OF 36.9 m METRIC TONS OF CO2 EMISSION PERMITS PER YEAR FOR 2005 – 2007, ČEZ CAN INCREASE GENERATION IN LIGNITE-FIRED POWER PLANTS BY 5.3 %

Carbon dioxide

emissions in 2004

(m metric tons)

Allocation ofcarbon dioxide

emission permits

Electricity generation

in lignite-firedpower plants

in 2004

(TWh)

Generation oflignite-fired

PPscovered by

current allocations

(TWh)

Currentultimate

capacity oflignite-fired PPs

(TWh)(m metric tons)

36,933,7

35,5

40,837,3

35,1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45+ 5,3 %

Carbon dioxide

emissions in 2001

(m metric tons)

23

CO2 EMISSION PERMITS HELP ČEZ TO HEDGE ITS TRADING POSITION

EUR/MWh

Variable costs *

Cross border

capacity fee

Exportmargin

Totalvariable

costs

Emissionpermit’sprice **

Minimum margin

*) Coal-fired power plants**) Generation of 1 MWh of electricity in coal-fired power plantinduces production of 1.04 metric tons of carbon dioxide.***) 2006 baseload future traded at EEX

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

January February March April May June July

EUR/MWh

5

10

15

20

25

30

35EUR/t

Electricity price*** Emission permit‘s price

24

ČEZ INCREASED UTILIZATION OF POWER PLANTS WITH LOWER COSTS

18(59%)

16.9(56%)

12.3(41%)

11.5(38%)

0(0%)

0(0%)

1(3%)

1(3%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1st half 2004 1st half 2005

30.5 TWh 30.2 TWh

TWh

Hydro – favorable hydrological conditions, all power plants broken during flood in 2002 are now back in operation

Nuclear – higher utilization of generation capacity will be compensated by lower output of Unit 2 in the second half of 2005 (high pressure part of turbine is broken)

Coal – decrease of share in favor of nuclear power plants

Wind and solar power plants

Hydro power plantsCoal power plants

Nuclear power plants

25

ČEZ INCREASED DOMESTIC ELECTRICITYSUPPLIES BY 0.8%

*) incl. electricity domestic sales for further export

Electricity demand in the Czech RepublicTWh

28.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1st half 2004 1st half 2005

66.8 %

29.5

68.2 %

+ 2.2 %

ČEZ, a. s. share in demand

26

Electricity sales excl. auxilliary servicesCZK m

1st half

2nd half46,233

54,704E 57,700

Slowdown in sales growth is caused by structural changes in the domestic market. Trading through public markets and with regional distribution companies are declining.22,401

27,444 29,572

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2003 2004 2005

REVENUES FROM ELECTRICITY SALES INCREASE MAINLY DUE TO HIGHER PRICE

27

STRATEGIC INITIATIVES

Vision and corporate targets

Plant portfolio renewal

(2007-20)

M&A expansion

(2004-10)

Integration and

operational excellence

(2004-8)

Performance-oriented culture

28

STRATEGIC INITIATIVES

Integration and operational excelence

Vision 2008 on track.

Unbundling to be implemented by the of 2005.

ČEZ, a. s. intends to squeeze out minority shareholders from four out of its five Czech distribution companies.

M&A expansion

ČEZ, a. s. continues in its M&A activities in CEE countries.

Plant portfolio renewal

Supply of lignite from Severočeské doly and Mostecká uhelná mining companies are secured by long-term agreements.

In the period until 2020, ČEZ, a. s. plans to invest CZK 90 – 100 bn in retrofitting existing power plants and in building new power plants.

The Czech Government granted 90-day exclusivity for ČEZ, a. s. to negotiate acquisition of its 56% stake in Severočeské doly mining company.

29

ČEZ, A. S. INTENDS TO SQUEEZE OUT MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS FROM FOUR OUT OF ITS FIVE CZECH DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES

Zdroj: ČEZ, a. s.

ČEZ controls between 97.72 % and 99.13 % stakes in four (out of five) Czech

distribution companies (SME, STE, VČE, ZČE).

ČEZ has decided to utilize a newly implemented squeeze-out procedure in all of

them to gain 100% control.

The first steps have been initiated already.

Total costs of the squeeze-outs are expected to reach CZK 512 m.

30

Poland

1. Privatization of Zespół Elektrowni Dolna Odra SA (power plants Dolna Odra, Pomorzany and Szczecin)

Initial offer on April 21, we are on the short list, due diligence finished, more specific bid is in preparation.

2. Elektrownia “Kozienice“ SA (power plant Kozienice)

Initial offer on April 28, ČEZ is on the short list, due diligence finished, more specific bid is in preparation.

3. Acquisition of ZE PAK – electricity generating company Zespół Elektrowni Patnów – Adamów – Konin SA. Acquisition negotiations are in progress.

M & A IN CENTRAL EUROPE

31

ACQUISITION GOALS IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE

Bulgaria

Generation

We placed bids for the power plants Varna and Russe. ČEZ placed

second behind the Russian company RAO in both cases. However,

according to a decision of the Bulgarian Antitrust Office it is not possible

to sell both power plants to one bidder and the situation remains open.

Romania

Generation

Power plants and mines – Rovinari (1,320 MW), Turceni (2,310 MW)

and Craiova (630 MW). Tender is to begin in the 2nd half of 2005.

Distribution

Distribution company Muntenia Sud. Tender is presumed to begin in

August 2005.

32

PLANS FOR LIGNITE PLANTS PORTFOLIO RENEWAL – FINALIZEDLIGNITE PLANTS INSTALLED CAPACITY TO DECLINE AFTER 2035

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Capacity MW

Retrofits New plantsExisting plants

Conservative

Retrofits

Existing plants

In the best case scenario the current level of installed capacity will be retained until 2035; after that the installed capacity will decline sharply.

Agressive

33

LIGNITE PLANTS PORTFOLIO RENEWAL – CONCLUSIONSTOTAL RELATED CAPEX TO REACH CZK 100 bn

EXPECTED CAPEX – CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO CZK m

PROJECTS OVERVIEW

1) Retrofits

Gross efficiency improvement from 36% to 41%

Tušimice II 4 x 200 MW

Prunéřov II 4 x 200 MW

Počerady 3 x 200 MW

2) New units

Gross efficiency 45%

Počerady 1 x 660 MW

Ledvice 1 x 660 MW

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

2008 – 2015 Main Assets Renewal Period

34

BROWN COAL SUPPLIES SECURED VIA LONG TERM SUPPLY CONTRACTS WITH SEVEROČESKÉ DOLY AND MOSTECKÁ UHELNÁ

ČEZ executed long-term supply contracts with its two main lignite suppliers (>90% of ČEZ’s lignite consumption).

The contracts are for period of approximately 50 years.

The contracts guarantee quality and quantity of supplied coal, in line with requirements related to lignite plants portfolio renewal.

Price risks are mitigated by linking the coal price to the index of electricity price and inflation. The link is with gearing below 1, i.e. one point change of the index above brings less than one point change in coal price.

In addition to the above, the Czech Republic Government granted ČEZ 90-day exclusivity to negotiate acquisition of its 56% stake in Severočeské doly.

The potential transaction would further enhance ČEZ’s control over lignite supplies.