conference proceedings: partnered by – reshamwala shipbrokers presentation by:gavin maguire asia...
TRANSCRIPT
Conference Proceedings:Partnered by – Reshamwala Shipbrokers
Presentation by:Gavin Maguire
Asia Commodities Editor in Charge ,Thomson Reuters
Globoil India 2015, September 30, 2015
Mumbai
GLOBAL OILSEEDS OUTLOOK
Opportunities & Threats on the Horizon
Presentation by:
Gavin Maguire
Asia Commodities Editor in ChargeReutersSeptember 30, 2015Mumbai
The Big Picture:Global oilseed output slips, but stocks still at record
World Oilseed Balance Sheet:Super-sized soybean surplus
Asia Oilseed Balance Sheet:Soybean imports set for new record
China Oilseed Balance Sheet:Soybean usage share at new record
Brazil – China Trade RouteGetting more efficient every year
China Soybean Imports From BrazilSet new record in 2015
China’s Price Perspective:Imported soybeans 60% cheaper than domestic
Brazil’s Price Perspective:Weak currency pushes local prices higher
China Soy Crush Margins Turn NegativeBut hog margins hold near record highs
China Imports Cool as Stocks ClimbChina soy imports dip from record high
China Imports Enter Slow SeasonChina soybean imports tend to cool in Sep/Oct
Soybeans Secure Top Spot in OilseedsSoy Stocks +80 Mln T > Rapeseed Stocks
It’s A Relative Thing Will soybeans regain $80-100 discount vs canola?
Oilseed Price Performance in 2015
‘Soft’ Oilseed Prices Actually better than many other commodities
So How Low Can Soy Futures Go?It depends on lots of things, like the oil price…
And Commercial Hedgers(Will they go heavily short futures at harvest?)
• Massive soybean stocks may keep growing as Brazilian farmers get signal to plant more
• Top buyer China in slowdown mode as crush margins go negative and economic worries bite
• Soybean price action more a relative thing vs canola, but if oil goes below $40/barrel beans can go below $9/bushel…
• BUT: 1.1 billion pigs, 150 million cattle & 1.3 billion people need to eat. Every day.
CONCLUSION
BRIEF INDIA OILSEED OUTLOOK FOLLOWS:
India Oilseed Balance:Cottonseed use big; stocks small
India Veg Oil BalancePalm oil import bill looking expensive?
India Oilseed Meals:Soymeal demand accelerates, overtakes cottonseed
Meal Exports Have Room to GrowSoymeal, rapemeal exports have potential
India Meal Prices:Long-term uptrend in place on rising demand
Meal Price Performance in 2015 Cottonseed meal outperforms
Conference Proceedings:Partnered by – Reshamwala Shipbrokers