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crude sunoil vs. İmport crude, from the beginning of the year. The bottom graph shows the price development of CIF Turkey sunflowerseeds versus domestic crop sunseeds. The blue vertical line through the charts marks the date of issuance of 0% duty import tariff licences, which is no longer applicable.

Local Market Developments With full dometic harvest, rising exchange rate and bearish World/Black Sea sunseed and products prices; domestic crude sunoil prices came down by some $200/mt, in the last 4 weeks. During this time, $/TL exchange rate has climbed from 1.77 to 1,85, touching 1.91 beginning of this week. Only intervention by Turkish Central Bank this week calmed down the upward movement of exchange rate. The demand during September largely remained moderate with crushers and refiners rushing to secure local sunseeds in order to meet retail orders with pipelines completely empty. Thrace sunseeds harvest began with high demand and rising prices however as harvest progressed the industry set purchase prices in line with the import sunseeds cost. Now at the end of Thrace harvest, local sunseed prices came down from the high of $740/mt to $595/mt (40% oil). This price roughly corresponds to $478 CIF Marmara on 44% oil basis with $141.75 import levy and discharge/inland carriage expenses. The price in Tharce now is well below Trakya Birlik’s ”advance” purchase price of 1.125TL ($609/mt - 40% oil). We hear that Trakya Birlik so far ended up with about 220,000 tonnes of sunseeds. The top graph on the right shows price development of domestic

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The imports of sunseeds hurriedly began to several ports of the country mainly from Romania, Moldova and Ukraine. As reported earlier, in the beginning of the Thrace harvest local sunseed prices initially climbed to meet imminent domestic demand but as we expected, prices retreated to a level in line with the world prices. Currently the domestic crude oil market is operating about $10 above the price calculated on world sunseed prices.

Turkey has imported a total of 688,000 tonnes of sunflowerseeeds within the first 8 months of 2011. The total crude sunoil imports during this time has been 342,000 tonnes, most of it against refined/bottled sunflower oil exports to the middle East, mainly to Iraq.

With favourable world sunseed prices and with local sunseeds in storage, we estimate total sunseeds imports by Turkey between now and the end of the year to exceed 200,000 tons, against “zero” last year.

The graph below shows the price development of domestic crude sunflower oil on ex-works Thrace basis, between the end of last year and today in US$/mt.

Turkish Oilseed Crops We keep our estimate of total Turkish sunseed production for 2011-12 season at 850,000 tonnes. The yields this year turned out to be c.150-200 kg. We peg Thrace region final production number at around 450,000. We estimate the industry to have bought about 400,000 tonnes of local sunseeds with 220,000 tonnes bought by Trakya Birlik alone. Therefore the farmers and some traders must have stored about 150-200,000 tonnes of sunseeds for sales at the end of the year, in the hope of better prices, then.

Our final Turkish sunflowerseed production estimates according to regions are given below: Thrace 450,000 mt Çukurova 110,000 mt Konya 90,000 mt Southern Marmara 45,000 mt Black Sea 45,000 mt Elsewhere 40,000 mt Total 850,000 mt

Industry Consumer demand remained weak during the first half of September with smaller crushings and moderate retail demand. The demand began to pick up towards the end of the month. However, falling world commodity prices together with weakness in equity markets coupled with rising US$/TL exchange rate prevented the distiributors and chain stores from buying in large quantitites and building up stocks.

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International Market Developments

Recent Trades

India India's soybean production in the next crop year that starts Oct. 1 is likely to rise about 15% to 11.65 million metric tons, the Soybean Processors' Association of India said Friday, following good monsoon rains in key growing regions. Soybean, India's biggest oilseed crop, accounts for more than 60% of the country's total summer-sown oilseed production. Higher production of the oilseed may reduce edible oil imports by the world's top importer. Soybean harvesting normally starts during late September and early October.

Vietnam Vietnam has purchased several cargoes totaling more than 100,000 metric tons of Indian soymeal for shipment in October and November, trading executives said Friday. Recent deals for shipments to southern ports were made at less than $410/ton, basis cost and freight and latest offers are even below $400/ton, C&F. Vietnam is Southeast Asia's largest soymeal importer and recent cheaper meal purchases amid low crushing margins have reduced capacity utilization of local soybean crushers, which aren't operating at all on some days.

Egypt Egyptian commodity purchasing company Meditrade bought 20,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and 25,000 tonnes of soyoil in a tender on Tuesday. Meditrade bought crude sunil from Nidera at $1,058.85 a tonne C+F, for shipment second half of November. It purchased the soyoil from the National Vegetable Oil company at $1,040/mt, Cairo based traders said.

Ukraine On October 4, a full text of the bill made by the Committee of Verkhovna Rada suggesting the introduction of minimal export duties for soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil was published on the Parliament’s website, said Ukraine analyst firm UkrAgroConsult. According to the bill # 9239 the duties can be 3% but not more than €2/mt for soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower oil. However UkrAgroConsult said, the bill actually is unlikely to be approved. It was created as an alternative to the Economy Ministry’s bill which suggested 12% and not less than €33/mt for soybeans, rapeseeds and 9% but not less than €15/mt for sunflower oil. UkrAgroConsult says a third compromise bill is likely to appear in the near future.

Globoil India 2011 India's sunflower oil imports in the marketing year starting Oct. 1 is likely to rise by up to 31% due to narrowing price difference over soyoil, a leading vegetable oil analyst said Sunday. The country is likely to import between 900,000 mt and 1 million mts during 2011-12, compared with an estimated 760,000 mt this year, Thomas Mielke, said during the conference. Sunoil is currently trading at a discount to soyoil, and that is why it is substituting soyoil imports, he added. Normally, sunflower oil commands a premium over soyoil, but prices have declined on expected higher production. Mielke said sunoil prices may fall by another $50-$80/mt, after declining about $90/ton in the past three weeks. Sunoil shipments to India, the world's top edible oil importer, is likely to exceed soyoil next year, he said. Indian consumers prefer sunflower oil over soyoil because of its better quality.

Fats & Oils Istanbul Registrations are now open for 2nd International Conference & Exhibition on fats and oils which will be held at Ceylan InterContinental Istanbul hotel, on 1st and 2nd December 2011. Organised by AgriPro and in collaboration with conference “Event Partner” CME Group “Fats & Oils Istanbul” promises to be an attractive business and networking combination for international participants. The main conference presentation again will be delivered by Dan Basse with market and price outlook for year 2012. “FOI 2011” will incorporate a separate risk management course on Saturday, 3rd December jointly given by CME Group & INTL FCStone. For full information about registration, exhibition, accommodation and sponsorship opportunities you can visit the conference website www.fatsandoilsistanbul.com.tr

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You can read and download this and all our past reports from our web site www.agripro.com.tr under “Market Reports” tab. Price Quotations (US$/TL 1.85) Price quotations as of Thursday, 6th October 2011 are as follows:

AgriPro Limited

Import: - Black Sea origin Sunseeds (44% bss) - CIF Marmara - $ 485 - Ukraine origin Rapeseeds (42% bss) - CIF Marmara - $ 605

- US Soybeans - CIF TR - $ 479 - Brazil Soybeans - CIF TR - $ 492

- RBD Palm Oil - CIF TR $ 1,010 - RBD Palm Olein - CIF TR $ 1,020 - RBD Palm Stearin - CIF TR $ 880 - Black Sea origin Crude Sunoil - CIF Marmara/Mersin - $ 1.050/$ 1.060 - South America origin Crude Degummed Soyoil - CIF TR - $ 1.150 - USA Crude Degummed Corn Oil - CIF TR $ 1,400

- Black Sea origin 36 protein Sunmeal - CIF TR - $ 210

Domestic: - Thrace sunseeds (40% oil basis) - $588

- Crude Sunoil - ex-works Thrace- $1,359 - Crude Rape Oil - ex-works Aegean/Çukurova - $ 1,450 - Crude Soyoil - ex-works Aegean/Çukurova - $ 1,350 - Crude Corn Oil - ex-works - Southern Marmara - 3,050 TL - Semi-refined Cotton Oil - ex-works Çukurova - 2,500 TL

- 28 protein Sunmeal - ex-works, Thrace/Agean/Çukurova - 380 TL/415 TL/410 TL - Rapemeal - ex-works Thrace/Agean/Çukurova - $ 290 - 47 protein Soymeal - ex-works Agean/Çukurova - $ 430 - Cottonmeal - ex-works Çukurova - 490 TL

© Copyright 2011 AgriPro Limited This report is personal to the individual recipients. Any reproduction or redistribution of contents without written consent of AgriPro Ltd. is strictly prohibited. Any violation of our copyright will be prosecuted. The information and analyses given in the report are believed to be reliable. However we cannot be held responsible for accuracy of the information in our reports and forecasts, or our forecasts and/or price indications to be taken as basis to any commercial contract. Tel +90 212 236 0345 Fax +90 212 236 0385 email info@agripro.com.tr web www.agripro.com.tr