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7th International Conference on Population Geographies 2013

25-28 June 2013

Groningen, The Netherlands

Conference Program &

Book of Abstracts

Organizing team Clara Mulder, Ori Rubin, Hans Elshof, Daniel Herbers, Eva Kibele, and Kim van Dam

Website: http://www.rug.nl/research/ursi/events/icpg2013 Email: icpg2013@rug.nl

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Contents

Welcome to Groningen and the ICPG 2013! ........................................... 6

Sponsors & Contributors ......................................................................... 7

Map City Centre of Groningen ................................................................ 9

Conference Facilities ............................................................................. 10

ICPG 2013 Conference Program At A Glance ........................................ 11

ICPG 2013 Plenary Sessions & Keynote Speakers ................................. 12

ICPG 2013 Parallel Sessions ................................................................... 14

ICPG 2013 Parallel Sessions: Presentations .......................................... 16

ICPG 2013 Abstracts .............................................................................. 31

Organizers Special Sessions ................................................................. 130

Participants Index ................................................................................ 131

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Welcome to Groningen and the ICPG 2013!

The organizing team of the Seventh International Conference on Population

Geographies, Groningen, 25-28 June 2013, is delighted to welcome all

participants of the Conference to the University of Groningen. You are visiting

our University just before its 400th

anniversary, which will be celebrated in

2014. Our organizing team consists of current members, and one former

member, of the Population Research Centre, which forms part of the Faculty

of Spatial Sciences. The Population Research Centre is dedicated to carrying-

out the research program ‘Population and Well-Being in Context’ and teaching

in the Master Population Studies and the Bachelor programs of the Faculty of

Spatial Sciences.

The previous International Conferences on Population Geographies took place

in St Andrews (twice), Liverpool, Hong Kong, Dartmouth and Umeå. This

seventh conference largely follows the format of the previous ones. This

implies it not only features paper sessions (among which several Special

Sessions in which guest organizers are involved) and plenary sessions, but also

joint lunches and dinners, plus excursions. This setup will provide you with

ample opportunity to interact with colleagues.

We hope you will enjoy this seventh conference as much as I, and many

others, enjoyed the previous six!

On behalf of the organizing team,

Clara H. Mulder

Head of the Population Research Centre, University of Groningen

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Sponsors & Contributors

Population Research Centre, University of Groningen

Gezamenlijk Gastheerschap (University of Groningen, Province of Groningen, Municipality of Groningen)

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INTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL UNION

Kennisnetwerk Krimp Noord-Nederland (KKNN) (Knowledge Network Population Decline Northern Netherlands)

THIS PROJECT IS CO-FINANCED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION, EUROPEAN FUND FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, THE MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND THE NORTHERN NETHERLANDS PROVINCES (SNN) PROVINCE OF DRENTHE, PROVINCE OF GRONINGEN, PROVINCE OF FRYSLAN, MUNICIPALITY GRONINGEN, MUNICIPALITY LEEUWARDEN

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Map City Centre of Groningen

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Conference Facilities

Conference Venue All conference sessions take place in the Academy Building, University of Groningen. Broerstraat 5 & 9, Groningen (see map of city centre Groningen and on the back side) Information and Registration The information and registration desk is located in the entrance hall of the Academy Building. Event management: Groningen CongresBureau Phone: +31 (0)50 3168877, Email: info@gcb.nl Internet Access WiFi connection is available. You can get an access code for free internet from the information desk. You can also connect to EDUROAM. Cash Dispenser An ATM/cash dispenser can be found across the street from the Academy Building. Public Transport You can plan your journey on www.9292.nl/en. Exhibitors The exhibitions take place at the in the Bruinszaal of the Academy Building.

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ICPG 2013 Conference Program At A Glance

Coffee Breaks & Lunches Location: Ground floor of the Academy Building: Bruinszaal & Spiegelzaal Tuesday, June 25: Welcome Drinks Location: Restaurant Academia (ground floor of the Academy Building) Wednesday, June 26: Reception & Dinner Location: Bruinzsaal & Spiegelzaal (ground floor of the Academy Building) Word of welcome by Marianne Besselink (Member of Provincial Executive) Thursday, June 27: Conference Dinner Location: Huize Maas, Vismarkt 52 (see map city centre Groningen) Word of welcome by Max van den Berg (King’s Commissioner in Groningen)

Tuesday, June 25 Wednesday, June 26

Thursday, June 27 Friday, June 28

08:00 Registration (until noon)

08:30

09:00 Plenary Session (Geertsemazaal)

Plenary Session (Geertsemazaal)

Parallel Sessions VII 09:30

10:00

10:30 Coffee Break Coffee Break

11:00 Coffee break Parallel Sessions IV Plenary Session (Geertsemazaal) 11:30 Parallel Sessions I

12:00

12:30 Lunch Lunch

13:00 Lunch

13:30 Parallel Sessions V Excursions

14:00 Parallel Sessions II

14:30

15:00 Coffee Break

15:30 Coffee Break Parallel Sessions VI

16:00 Registration Parallel Sessions III

16:30

17:00

17:30 Welcome Drinks Reception & Dinner

18:00 Conference Dinner

18:30

19:00-

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ICPG 2013 Plenary Sessions & Keynote Speakers

All plenary session take place in the Geertsemazaal on the third floor of the Academy Building.

Wednesday, June 26, 9:00-11:00

Opening of the conference by Prof. Inge Hutter (Dean of the Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen)

Welcome address by Peter Rehwinkel (Mayor of Groningen)

Keynote speech: "Rethinking Global Ageing" Prof. Sarah Harper (Professor of Gerontology at Oxford University and Director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, Research Associate University of Chicago) Prof. Sarah Harper trained as an ethnographer and her early research focused on migration and the social implications of demographic change. Her current research concerns globalization and global population ageing. In particular she considers the impact at the global, societal and individual level of the age-structural shift from predominantly young to predominantly older societies, addressing such questions as the implications of the widespread falls in fertility and growth in extreme longevity. Particular research interests are the impact of these demographic shifts on intergenerational relationships, work, migration, and the environment. Sarah also leads The Complex Environmental Population Interactions Programme which unites key demographers, economists, anthropologists, philosophers and environmentalists to address through research, modeling and scenarios, the range of complex interactions between environmental and demographic change over the first half of the 21st century.

Thursday, June 27, 9:00-10:30 Keynote speech: “The impact of demographic change on local labour markets: lessons from the Netherlands and OECD countries” Dr. Cristina Martinez-Fernandez (Senior Policy Analyst, OECD LEED Programme)

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Co-presenter: Mr. Aldert de Vries (Ministry of Interior and Kingdom Relations, Netherlands Delegate to the OECD LEED Programme)

Dr. Cristina Martinez-Fernandez (PhD UNSW, Doc Salamanca), of Spanish and Australian nationalities, is a Policy Analyst on Local Governance and Employment at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Local Economic and Employment Development (LEED) programme. She has responsibilities in programs on Training and Skills Development in SMEs; Climate Change, Employment and Local Development; SMEs, Entrepreneurship and Innovation; and she manages the OECD/LEED Initiative on Employment and Skills Strategies in Southeast Asia (ESSSA). Before joining the OECD Cristina was a Professor at the Urban Research Centre, University of Western Sydney in Australia where she led the Urban and Regional Dynamics research program.

Friday, June 28, 11:00-12:30 Keynote speech: “The IMAGE project-Internal Migration Around the GlobE” Prof. Martin Bell (University of Queensland)

Prof. Martin Bell is a demographer and population geographer with interests in population mobility and internal migration, demographic projections and forecasts, regional and local population change and population models and methods of analysis.

The IMAGE project The significance of population mobility is now widely recognized, with both the World Bank (2009) and United Nations Development Program (2009) dedicating their 2009 flagship reports to the topic of migration. Mobility is integral to the process of human development. For communities and regions, it brings knowledge, skills and labour to the locations where it is needed to enhance economic productivity and social well-being. For individuals and families, it provides a crucial mechanism to pursue aspirations and respond to opportunities. For nations, it is the primary mechanism that transforms the pattern of human settlement, stimulating growth in some regions, typically in cities and coastal areas, while reducing numbers elsewhere. Presentation of PGRG Lifetime Achievement Awards

Announcement of ICPG 2015 and farewell

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ICPG 2013 Parallel Sessions

Parallel Sessions I, Wednesday, June 26, 11:30-13:00

1. Healthy Ageing & Social Networks (A901)

2. Family & Migration (A900)

3. Highly Skilled Migration: North-South & Return Mobilities (A8)

4. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Regional Labor

Markets I (A2)

5. Methods in Migration Research (A3)

6. Population Geographies at the Local Level (A7)

Parallel Sessions II, Wednesday, June 26, 14:00-15:30

7. Healthy Ageing: Inequalities at Regional Level (A901)

8. Arctic Population Geography (A12)

9. Highly Skilled Migration, Gender and Family (A8)

10. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Graduate

Migration II (A2)

11. Internal Migration: Spatial Patterns (A900)

12. The Spatial Heterogeneity of Population Decline I (A3)

Parallel Sessions III, Wednesday, June 26, 16:00-17:30

13. Healthy Ageing: Inequalities at Small-Area Level (A901)

14. Global Population Growth, Environmental Change and Migration I (A7)

15. Highly Skilled Migration, Policy and Institutions (A900)

16. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Graduate

Migration I (A2)

17. Internal Migration: Determinants and Migrants’ Satisfaction (A8)

18. Mobility Across the Life Course (A3)

19. Stayers: More Than Just Those Who Don’t Leave (A12)

Parallel Sessions IV, Thursday, June 27, 11:00-12:30

20. Setting the Agenda for Population Decline: Theory and Policies (Room

Heymanszaal)

21. The Spatial Heterogeneity of Population Decline II (A900)

22. Global Population Growth, Environmental Change and Migration II (A7)

23. Health Geography (A12)

24. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Regional Labor

Markets II (A2)

25. Internal Migration: Time Trends and Spatial Patterns (A7)

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26. Societal Implications of International Migration (A901)

Parallel Sessions V, Thursday, June 27, 13:30-15:00 27. Coping with the Challenges of Population Decline (Room Heymanszaal)

28. Youngsters on the Move: Causes and Consequences (901)

29. Economic Conditions, Mobility and Population Composition (A8)

30. Fertility and Migration (A7)

31. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Student

Migration I (A2)

32. International Migration, Development and Return Migration (A900)

33. Methods in Population Geography (A3)

Parallel Sessions VI, Thursday, June 27, 15:30-17:00

34. Population Decline at the Local Level (Room Heymanszaal)

35. Identity & Meaning of Place (A12)

36. Integration and Segregation (A7)

37. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Student

Migration II (A2)

38. International Migration and Education (A8)

39. The Role of Gender and Households in Mobility and Residence (A3)

Parallel Sessions VII, Friday, June 28, 9:00-10:30

40. Settlement of International Migrants (A901)

41. Internal Migration and Transition to Adulthood (A900)

42. Mobility and Urbanization (A8)

43. Population Projection Methods (A3)

44. Spatial Implications of International Migration (A2)

45. Spatial Variations in Fertility (A7)

46. Small Areas and Population Subgroups (A12)

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ICPG 2013 Parallel Sessions: Presentations

Presenting authors are underlined. Parallel Sessions I, Wednesday, June 26, 11:30-13:00

1. Healthy Ageing & Social Networks (Room A901) Chair: Mirjam Klaassens (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

1.1 Social Networks and Everyday Activity Limitations among European Older Population · Liili Abuladze (Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University, Estonia), Luule Sakkeus

1.2 Social network size and cognitive function in elderly, influenced by depression? · Jisca S. Kuiper (University Medical Center Groningen), N. Smidt, R.C. Oude Voshaar, R.P. Stolk, S.U. Zuidema, H.C. Comijs, M.L. Stek, M. Zuidersma

1.3 Family-life and well-being at older ages · Daniël J. Herbers (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen), Clara H. Mulder

1.4 What does ‘place’ in ‘ageing in place’ mean for informal caregivers? · Marloes Oldenkamp (University Medical Center Groningen), Nynke Smidt, Salome Scholtens, Mariët Hagedoorn, Joris Slaets, Rafael Wittek, Ronald Stolk

2. Family & Migration (Room A900) Chair: Nicola Barban (University of Groningen)

2.1 Counterfactual Evidence of the Causes and Consequences of Tied Migration and Tied Staying · Thomas Cooke (University of Connecticut)

2.2 Migration and regional differences in access to local family networks · Emma Lundholm (Centre for Population Studies/ Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University, Sweden)

2.3 Family networks, mobility and life style · Gunnar Malmberg (Centre for Population Studies/ Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University), Erling Lundevaller

2.4 European identification in bi-national and uni-national marriages in the Netherlands: is there a difference? · Leo Van Wissen (NIDI), Liesbeth Heering, Hanna van Solinge

3. Highly Skilled Migration: North-South & Return Mobilities (Room A8) Chair: Ajay Bailey (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

3.1 “A brain gain with a brain drain”?: The Impact of Migration to Europe on Senegalese Children’s Educational Investments · Pau Baizan (ICREA and Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

3.2 From Nation to Profession: State Strategy and Imagined Geographies of Highly-skilled Return Migration to Israel · Nir Cohen (Department of Geography and Environment, Bar Ilan University)

3.3 To Settle or Return: The Integration of Highly-Skilled Women Migrants in Germany · Grit Grigoleit (Helmut-Schmidt University Hamburg)

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3.4 Highly-skilled Nigerians in Germany, the UK and the USA in comparison · Melanie Mbah (Department of Geography and Geoecology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

4. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Regional

Labor Markets I (Room A2) Chair: Sierdjan Koster (University of Groningen)

4.1 Educative Profiles of Internal Migration to Medium and Small Cities in Mexico · Angélica Reyna (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo e IIS-UNAM), Jorge Dettmer

4.2 Analysing the effect of education in the regional patterns of mobility in 21st Century Spain · Pau Miret-Gamundi (Center for Demographic Studies), Elena Vidal-Coso

4.3 Explaining Cross-National Differences in Internal Migration Age Patterns: The Role of Life-Course Transitions · Bernard Aude (University of Queensland), Martin Bell, Elin Charles-Edwards

5. Methods in Migration Research (Room A3) Chair: Philip Rees (University of Leeds)

5.1 Modelling and analysing sub-national migration patterns in the United Kingdom · Nik Lomax (University of Leeds), John Stillwell

5.2 Estimating annual migration flows by age and sex for subnational geographies in the UK, 2001-2011 · Paul Norman (School of Geography, University of Leeds), Nik Lomax, John Stillwell, Phil Rees

5.3 The long-run decline in Australian internal migration intensities · Tom Wilson (The University of Queensland), Elin Charles-Edwards, Martin Bell

5.4 Comparing regional intensities of internal migration in Spain with Courgeau’s K index · Francisco Villavivencio (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics), Joaquín Recaño-Valverde

6. Population Geographies at the Local Level (Room A7) Chair: Aslan Zorlu (University of Amsterdam)

6.1 Religious and ethnic neighbourhood profiles of Vienna: A comparison of two dimensions of urban diversity · Ramon Bauer (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Vienna Institute of Demography), Markus Speringer

6.2 Gender contracts at the local level · Karen Haandrikman (Department of Human Geography, Stockholm University)

6.3 Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities · Daniel Liviano (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya), Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod

6.4 Occupational Mobility and Deprived Neighbourhoods: Does living in a deprived neighbourhood reduce your ability to achieve occupational progression? · Maarten van Ham (Delft University of Technology), David Manley

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Parallel Sessions II, Wednesday, June 26, 14:00-15:30

7. Healthy Ageing: Inequalities at Regional Level (Room A901) Chair: Fanny Janssen (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

7.1 Regional differences in long-term care in Germany. A study based on the concept of disability-free life expectancy · Daniel Kreft (Rostock Center for the Study of Demographic Change, University of Rostock), Gabriele Doblhammer

7.2 The role of selective migration in explaining health differences between shrinking and other regions in the Netherlands · Aletta Dijkstra (Unit of PharmacoEpidemiology & PharmacoEconomics (PE

2), University of

Groningen), Eva Kibele, Antonia Verweij, Fons van der Lucht, Fanny Janssen

7.3 Life expectancy in the European Russia: looking for geographical trends · Alexander Alekseev (Moscow State University)

7.4 Crisis and Health – A Hungarian Case Study · Annamaria Uzzoli (Institute of Regional Studies, Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)

8. Arctic Population Geography (Room A12) Chair: Kim van Dam/Tekke Terpstra (Arctic Centre, University of Groningen)

8.1 21st

Century Canadian Inuit Ordinary Mobility: Beyond traditional territories · Béatrice Collignon (Geography Dept. - University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne)

8.2 Constructing Normality: Deconstructing the “problematic” mobile workers in the Arctic Petroleum Industry · Gertrude Eilmsteiner-Saxinger (Austrian Academy of Sciences, Institute for Urban and Regional Research (ISR); Austrian Polar Research Institute (APRI))

8.3 How do social networks shape migration flows in Russian Arctic? · Nadezhda Zamyatina (Lomonosov Moscow State University), Alexey Yashunsky

9. Highly Skilled Migration, Gender and Family (Room A8) Chair: Clara H. Mulder (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

9.1 ‘For the sake of the family and future’: the linked lives of highly skilled Indian migrants in the Netherlands and United Kingdom · Anu Kõu (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) Ajay Bailey, Clara H. Mulder, Leo van Wissen

9.2 Unsettling the Yin-Yang Harmony: An Analysis of Gender Bias in Chinese-German Academic Mobility · Maggi Leung (Department of Human Geography and Planning, Utrecht University)

9.3 Family makes a difference! Migration intentions of new waves of skilled labour migrants in Germany · Lenore Sauer (German Federal Institute for Population Research), Barbara Heß, Andreas Ette

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10. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Graduate Migration I (Room A2)

Chair: Viktor Venhorst (University of Groningen) 10.1 Internal migration of young graduates: motivations and projects of

highly qualified rural youth not returning to their home region · Patrick Rérat (University of Neuchâtel)

10.2 Onwards or homewards? The complex processes of graduate migration · Joanna Sage (ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton), Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham

10.3 Internal migration of higher education graduates in Belgium · Didier Willaert (Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel), Lena Imeraj, Nissa Finney

11. Internal Migration: Spatial Patterns (Room A900) Chair: Maria Brandén (Stockholm University)

11.1 Regional pattern of family migration flows in Bhutan · Raghubir Chand (Department of Geography, Kumaun University Nainital)

11.2 Spatial variations of residential mobility patterns in Colombia: an approach using contextual data from census · Hernán Villarraga (Department of Geography - Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics, Universtat Autònoma de Barcelona), Albert Sabater, Juan A. Módenes

11.3 No Country for Young Women: Sex Selective Migration in East Germany · Stephan Kühntopf (Federal Institute for Population Research), Susanne Stedtfeld

11.4 Transitions in Gender Ratios among Internal Migrants in Germany, 2000-2010 · Nikola Sander (Vienna Institute of Demography (ÖAW))

12. The Spatial Heterogeneity of Population Decline I (Room A3) Chair: Hans Elshof (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

12.1 Spatial differentiation of population decline in the German region Saarland · Josje Hoekveld (University of Amsterdam)

12.2 Assessing the Landscape of Population Decline and Growth in the United States: The Roles of the Demographic Components of Change and Geography · Rachel Franklin (Brown University)

12.3 North Brabant population dynamics analysis for pursuing regional sustainable development · Tong Wang (Eindhoven University of Technology), Qi Han, Bauke de Vries

12.4 Time for change: how population decline contributes to new (spatial) planning styles · Marlies Meijer (Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Radboud University Nijmegen)

Parallel Sessions III, Wednesday, June 26, 16:00-17:30

13. Healthy Ageing: Inequalities at Small-Area Level (Room A901) Chair: Eva Kibele (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

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13.1 Developing and validating a prediction rule for type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence at local level, using socioeconomic and demographic data · Aletta Dijkstra (Unit of PharmacoEpidemiology & PharmacoEconomics (PE2), University of Groningen), F. Janssen, M. De Bakker, H.J. Bos, R. Lub, L.J.G. Van Wissen, E. Hak

13.2 The prevalence of chronic diseases among elderly in Amsterdam · Auke Vlonk (Jan van Es Instituut), Paul Reijn

13.3 Mind the Gap – Health Inequalities across the UK · Pia Wohland (Newcastle University), Carol Jagger, Phil Rees

13.4 An assessment of vulnerabilities of elderly peoples: A case study of Slums in Delhi, India · Vinod Kumar (BRAC DU and Jawaharlal Nehru University)

14. Global Population Growth, Environmental Change and Migration I (Room A7)

Chair: Frank Swiaczny (Federal Institute for Population Research) 14.1 Population Change and Migration: Questions of Environmental Change,

Sustainability and Development · Frank Swiaczny (Federal Institute for Population Research)

14.2 Rethinking environmental displacement: vulnerability and mobility in Italy; the case of Sarno · Eleonora Guadagno (Migrinter Université de Poitiers)

14.3 Risk and Construction Evaluation of Environmental-induced Migration in Sanjiangyuan Area in China · Xiangjing Meng (Institute of Population Research, Renmin University of China), Si Gao

15. Highly Skilled Migration, Policy and Institutions (Room A900) Chair: Anu Kou (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

15.1 Competing for talent - How do municipal policies in Germany contribute to attracting highly-skilled migrants? · Stefanie Föbker (Department of Geography, University of Bonn), Daniela Temme

15.2 Attracting the best talent in the context of migration policy changes: the case of the UK · Anne Green (Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick)

15.3 Highly Skilled Migration in Taiwan – An Issues Approach · Wen-Li Ke (National Immigration Agency of Taiwan), Li-Kung Hsieh

16. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Graduate

Migration II (Room A2) Chair: Sierdjan Koster (University of Groningen)

16.1 Time to stay or time to go? Explaining international students’ choices to stay in the Netherlands after graduation · Pascal Beckers (Institute for Management Research, Radboud University Nijmegen) Metka Hercog , Katrin Marchand

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16.2 Cohort comparison of migration experiences of college graduates in the US · Bohyun Joy Jang (Institute for Population Research, The Ohio State University), Anastasia Snyder

16.3 Internal migration, occupational class and regional labour markets in China · Tony Fielding (University of Sussex)

16.4 Do STEM degree holders obtain STEM jobs? Exploring New Dimensions of Human Capital Agglomeration in the United States · Matt Townley (University of Washington), Mark Ellis, Richard Wright

17. Internal Migration: Determinants and Migrants’ Satisfaction (Room A8) Chair: Karen Haandrikman (Department of Human Geography, Stockholm University)

17.1 Migration Determinants at a Local Level · Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod (CREUIP-QURE (Universitat Rovira i Virgili)), Daniel Liviano

17.2 Socio-economic impact on in-migrating labourers: A case study of Chennai City · Thulasi Mala Dhuruvan (Queen Mary's College, University of Madras), Anees Fathima S. M., Sri Rama Laxmi Devi M.

17.3 Migration motivations and migrants’ satisfaction in the life course: A sequence analysis of geographical mobility trajectories in the United Kingdom · Beata Nowok (University of St Andrews / ESRC Centre for Population Change), Allan M. Findlay

17.4 Post-move satisfaction, internal migration and the urban hierarchy · Michael Sloan (Victoria University of Wellington), Phillip S. Morrison

18. Mobility Across the Life Course (Room A3) Chair: Maarten van Ham (Delft University of Technology)

18.1 The geographic mobility over the life course in some European countries. Using ShareLife data to compare changes of residence over the last decades · Frank Heins (Institute for Research on Population and Social Policies – National Research Council), Corrado Bonifazi

18.2 Aging, Environment and Migration · Melanie Kappler (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))

18.3 Residential mobility over the life course: continuity and change · Juliet Stone (ESRC Centre for Population Change), Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham, Jo Sage, Athina Vlachantoni

18.4 Adjustment of Intergenerational Proximity As Consequence of Health Problems of Older Persons in the Netherlands · Marieke van der Pers (Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Science, University of Groningen), Clara H. Mulder, Eva Kibele

19. Stayers: More Than Just Those Who Don’t Leave (Room A12) Chair: Niels Kooiman (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS))

19.1 Are stayers a neglected research topic? Discussing the importance of young adult stayers in rural population studies · Tialda Haartsen (Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen)

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19.2 Rural stayers and leavers – outcomes for youth · E. Dianne Looker (Mount Saint Vincent University)

19.3 Places to stay, to leave or to come to? Small towns in shrinking German regions · Annett Steinführer (Institute of Rural Studies, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute)

Parallel Sessions IV, Thursday, June 27, 11:00-12:30 20. Setting the Agenda for Population Decline: Theory and Policies (Room

Heymanszaal) Chair: Leo van Wissen (NIDI and University of Groningen)

20.1 Adaptation to demographic change: a key challenge to population geography/ers in Central Europe? · Martin Šimon (Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic)

20.2 Regional population decline in Europe: best practices and policy responses · Roos Galjaard (Bureau PAU), Marieke Harkink

20.3 Literature review on population decline · Nina Conkova (NIDI), Leo van Wissen, Harry van Dalen

21. The Spatial Heterogeneity of Population Decline II (Room A900) Chair: Josje Hoekveld (University of Amsterdam)

21.1 Shrinking and staying behind? Socio-demographic and socio-economic divergence between Dutch regions · Niels Kooiman (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS)), Marco Bontje, Jan Latten

21.2 Population decline and community development in the Great Plains · Laszlo Kulcsar (Kansas State University)

21.3 Population Decline in the Republic of Belarus: Spatial Regularities and Ways of Problem Solution · Ekaterina Antipova (Belarusian State University), Liudmila Fakeyeva

21.4 Challenges of demographic change for shrinking regions in the Netherlands · Andries de Jong (PBL)

22. Global Population Growth, Environmental Change and Migration II (Room

A7) Chair: Frank Swiaczny (Federal Institute for Population Research)

22.1 Rainfall Variations and Socio-spatial Mutations around the Waza National Park in the Far North Region (Sahel Region) of Cameroon · Johnson Takwa Teke (Central Bureau Censuses and Population Studies)

22.2 The Impacts of Extreme Flood Events on Vulnerable Livelihoods of Nadi Area in Fiji Islands · Ravindra Rattan (Department of Geography, University of Porto, and University of the South Pacific)

22.3 The Legitimacy of Migration as a Policy Measure in Cases of Resource Scarcity · Barbara E. Müller (Department of Political Science, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

23. Health Geography (Room A12)

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Chair: Auke Vlonk (Jan van Es Instituut) 23.1 Potential Burden of Cohort Exposure (PBCE). Implications for the

analysis and interpretation of (healthy) aging · Antonio D. Cámara (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona), Pilar Zueras, Sergi Trias

23.2 Spatial Variation in Infant Mortality at an Early Stage of the Longevity Revolution: A Pan-European View in 1910 · Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Peter Ekamper, Ian Gregory, Siegfried Gruber, Jordi Marti-Henneberg, Frans van Poppel, Luis Silveira, Arne Solli

23.3 Population Ageing and Healthy Life Expectancy in Thailand · Rukchanok Karcharnubarn (College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University), Philip Rees (School of Geography, University of Leeds), Myles Gould

24. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Regional

Labor Markets II (Room A2) Chair: Inge Noback (University of Groningen)

24.1 Migration, Labor Queues, and Wage Inequality · Jamie Goodwin-White (University of California, Los Angeles)

24.2 Knowledge-intensive employment growth in the Dutch Randstad and the German Rhine-Ruhr area: the impact of centrality and peripherality · Kristin Kronenberg (Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development (ILS)), Kati Volgmann

24.3 Please, stand on the right; are Dutch recent graduates stepping off the escalator faster? · Viktor Venhorst (University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences), Jouke van Dijk

25. Internal Migration: Time Trends and Spatial Patterns (Room A7) Chair: Nissa Finney (University of Manchester)

25.1 Inter-regional migration in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, 1995-2010: Differences and similarities across space and time · Ramon Bauer (Vienna Institute of Demography (ÖAW)), Nikola Sander

25.2 Spatial Mobility Trends in Sweden: An Order-Specific Analysis of Migration · Hill Kulu (University of Liverpool), Gunnar Malmberg, Emma Lundholm

25.3 Do the Elderly Move to Less Dense Areas? Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Migration in Korea · Jun Hyung Kim (Daegu University), Jung Hoon Han

25.4 Patterns of Urban/Rural Migration in Israel, 2003-2008 · Uzi Rebhun (The Hebrew Univeristy of Jerusalem), David L. Brown

26. Societal Implications of International Migration (Room A901) Chair: Pau Baizan (ICREA and Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

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26.1 Eastern European Immigration in British Tabloids: Refutation of Britain’s Multicultural Society · Fathi Bourmeche (Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Sfax)

26.2 Exploring leading role of secondary migrants in local and transnational social practices among highly skilled migrants in Warsaw · Aneta Piekut (Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw)

26.3 The role of international migration in skill acquisition and career progression: The temporary, seasonal migration of elite cricket professionals · Catherine Waite (Loughborough University)

Parallel Sessions V, Thursday, June 27, 13:30-15:00

27. Coping with the Challenges of Population Decline (Room Heymanszaal) Chair: Nina Conkova (NIDI)

27.1 Demographic Decline and Social Capital: the role of ICTs · Maja Rocak (Zuyd University- CESRT, Research Centre Social Integration)

27.2 Organizational capacity in local community of interest organizations · Jannie Rozema (Hanze University of Applied Sciences)

27.3 Filling The Knowledge Gap - Scenario Planning And GIS To Support Planning In Shrinking Municipalities · Markus Schaffert (Anhalt University of Applied Sciences, Dessau-Roßlau)

28. Youngsters on the Move: Causes and Consequences (Room A901) Chair: Tialda Haartsen (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

28.1 Are the Dutch rural and declining areas losing their highly educated to the cities? · Anja Steenbekkers (National Institute of Social Research / SCP)

28.2 Teens on the move: an analysis of adolescent migration in rural South Africa · Rachel Bennett (University of Southampton)

28.3 "The young are the future" - Youth migration as "hinge of fate" for rural communities · Doris Schmied (University of Bayreuth), Markus Siegler

28.4 Youth migration: impact on sending and receiving municipalities in the Netherlands · Dorien Manting (PBL/UVA)

29. Economic Conditions, Mobility and Population Composition (Room A8) Chair: Gunnar Malmberg (Centre for Population Studies/ Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University)

29.1 Europeans on the move: Changing migration patterns in Spain under economic recession · Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco (University of Barcelona), Fernando Gil-Alonso, Miguel Rubiales, Romà Pujadas-Rúbies

29.2 How the Spanish housing demand bubble grew and bursted: baby boomers, immigration and spatial diffusion · Antonio López-Gay (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics Barcelona, Spain), Juan A. Módenes

29.3 The Great Recession and the Internal Migration of the Foreign Population in Spain · Joaquín Recaño-Valverde (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Sergi Vidal

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29.4 How does structural social and economic change drive (im)mobility? International perspectives towards a potential research agenda · Ian Shuttleworth (QUB), Tony Champion

30. Fertility and Migration (Room A7) Chair: Alessandra Carioli (University of Groningen and NIDI)

30.1 Residential Context, Migration and Fertility · Hill Kulu (University of Liverpool)

30.2 Societal Norms, Economic Conditions and Spatial Variation of Childbearing in Cohabitation across European Regions · Trude Lappegård (Statistics Norway, Research Department), Sebastian Kluesener, Daniele Vignoli

30.3 Rethinking the effect of total fertility rate to population decline from the Hong Kong experience · Ling Sze Nancy Leung (Ritsumeikan University)

30.4 Disentangling the quantum and tempo of immigrant fertility · Ben Wilson (London School of Economics)

31. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Student

Migration I (Room A2) Chair: Rachel Franklin (Brown University)

31.1 Housing, sustainability and student populations · Alexis Alamel (Loughborough University)

31.2 Internal migration patterns of students in the UK: changing flows into different neighbourhoods using 2011 GB census data · Darren P. Smith (Loughborough University)

31.3 Towards a typology of student migration: Illustrations from student record data for the United Kingdom · Neil Bailey (University of Southampton)

32. International Migration, Development and Return Migration (Room A900) Chair: Ajay Bailey (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

32.1 Emigration and return migration in transition contexts – a comparative perspective · Daniel Goeler (University of Bamberg), Zaiga Krisjane

32.2 Financial Constraints and International Migration: The Role of Social Policy and Financial Development · Edo Mahendra (Department of International Development, University of Oxford)

32.3 Indonesian Diaspora in Asia · Salut Muhidin (Macquarie University) 32.4 International Remittances and its impact on Household Expenditure

pattern in India · Sandhya Mahapatro (Population Research Centre, India & University of Groningen) Ajay Bailey , K.S. James, Inge Hutter

33. Methods in Population Geography (Room A3) Chair: Paul Norman (School of Geography, University of Leeds)

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33.1 Searching for visitors? The utility of web-sourced data for the estimation of temporary populations in Australia · Elin Charles-Edwards (The University of Queensland), Martin Bell

33.2 Are non-contiguous administrative areas a feasible solution to the spatial delineation problem in the definition of internal migration? · Thomas Niedomysl (Lund University), Ulf Ernstsson, Urban Fransson

33.3 Twenty-five years (1988-2012) of boundary-consistent population data for the Dutch municipalities · Anton Vrieling (University of Twente), Chantal Melser

33.4 Modelling household change in a dynamic microsimulation framework · Paul Williamson (University of Liverpool)

Parallel Sessions VI, Thursday, June 27, 15:30-17:00

34. Population Decline at the Local Level (Room Heymanszaal) Chair: Hans Elshof (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

34.1 The challenges of living in rural areas: a qualitative study in Aragón · Raul Lardies (University of Zaragoza), Ana Castello, Mª Luz Hernandez

34.2 The Opportunities of Emptiness · Julia Rössel (Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Germany)

34.3 Population decline in Serbia – contemporary problems of small villages · Milena Spasovski (Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade), Marija Martinovic, Danica Santic

35. Identity & Meaning of Place (Room A12) Chair: Mirjam Klaassens Population Research Centre, (University of Groningen)

35.1 Citizens with/out Belonging? Discourses of exclusion vs. lived spaces of belonging · Maike Didero (RWTH Aachen University)

35.2 The role of place in experiences of subjective wellbeing of older adults · Linden Douma (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen)

35.3 Geographical factors underlying change in national identity within the UK · David Owen (University of Warwick)

36. Integration and Segregation (Room A7) Chair: Mark Ellis (University of Washington)

36.1 Geographies of diversity in England and Wales, 1991-2011 · Gemma Catney (Dept. of Geography and Planning, University of Liverpool)

36.2 Crossroads to integration? Residential and occupational segregation of Latin-Americans in Spain · Juan Galeano

(Centre d’ Estudis Demogràfics

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Albert Sabater, Andreu Domingo 36.3 Ethnic Segregation in U.S. Cities, Suburbs, and Rural Communities, 1990-

2010 · Daniel T. Lichter (Cornell University and Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute), Domenico Parisi, Michael C. Taquino

36.4 Moving on? Integration and onward migration of dispersed refugees in the UK · Emma Stewart (University of Strathclyde)

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37. Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Student

Migration II (Room A2) Chair: Inge Noback (University of Groningen)

37.1 Internal migration as a means of social mobility. Family resources and the decision to study in the Center-Northern regions among young Italian Southerners · Roberto Impicciatore (University of Milan)

37.2 College Student Migration in the United States: Going with the Flow? · Rachel Franklin (Brown University), Alessandra Faggian

37.3 The role of ethnicity in higher education migration decisions of young adults in Britain · Nissa Finney (University of Manchester)

38. International Migration and Education (Room A8) Chair: Sanne Boschman (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment)

38.1 "Migrants on the middle”: Educational training, labour market choices and everyday spatial practices · Cristóbal Mendoza (UAM-Iztapalapa), Anna Ortiz-Guitart

38.2 Youth international migration in Poland · Alina Potrykowska (The Government Population Council of Poland)

38.3 Stepping-stone migration of Polish graduates · Aga Szewczyk (Loughborough University)

38.4 Estimating international migration flows by level of education, 1995-2010 · Nikola Sander (Vienna Institute of Demography (ÖAW))

39. The Role of Gender and Households in Mobility and Residence (Room A3) Chair: Thomas Cooke (University of Connecticut)

39.1 Who Moves to Whom? Gender Differences in the Distance to a Shared Residence · Maria Brandén (Stockholm University), Karen Haandrikman

39.2 The Effects of Fertility Intentions on Short and Long Distance Moves · Michael Feldhaus (University of Bremen), Sergi Vidal, Johannes Huinink

39.3 The Spatial Distribution of Same-Sex Couples in Montevideo, Uruguay · Ridhi Kashyap (European Doctoral School of Demography, CED, Autonomous University of Barcelona), Marcus Ebeling

39.4 Commuter partnerships/families in six European countries · Heiko Rueger (Federal Institute for Population Research, Germany), Norbert F. Schneider

Parallel Sessions VII, Friday, June 28, 9:00-10:30

40. Settlement of International Migrants (Room A901) Chair: Emma Lundholm (Centre for Population Studies/ Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University)

40.1 The effects of economic conditions, ethnic clustering, and anti-immigrant policies on the destination choices of the foreign born in the

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US · Mark Ellis (University of Washington), Richard Wright, Matt Townley

40.2 Patterns of emigration of young educated Poles · Barbara Jaczewska (Institute of Regional and Global Studies, University of Warsaw)

40.3 Dispersal and deprivation: Mapping asylum seekers in Britain since 1999 · Sarah Lubman (University of Southampton)

40.4 Housing Trajectory of Newcomers to Canada · Bruce Newbold (McMaster University)

41. Internal Migration and Transition to Adulthood (Room A900) Chair: Roberto Impicciatore (University of Milan)

41.1 Geographical context and transitions to adulthood · Nicola Barban (University of Groningen), Clara H. Mulder

41.2 Leaving home and destination of nest-leavers: Ethnicity, spaces and prices · Aslan Zorlu (University of Amsterdam), Ruben van Gaalen

41.3 Coping with Family and Work Responsibilities in the Context of Rapid Urbanization: Strategies of Mothers of Young Infants in Accra, Ghana · Philippa Waterhouse (University of Southampton)

42. Mobility and Urbanization (Room A8) Chair: Sergi Vidal (University of Bremen)

42.1 Internal mobility of population in the context of suburbanization processes in the Krakow Metropolitan Area (Poland) · Jadwiga Gałka (Jagiellonian University), Sławomir Kurek, Mirosław Wójtowicz

42.2 Migration, urbanization and competitiveness: Which European regions are most vulnerable to the consequences of ageing? · Nicole van der Gaag (NIDI), Joop de Beer, Rob van der Erf

42.3 Migration, Population and Specialisation in German Medium Sized Cites: Exploring the Seemingly Well-Known · Bernhard Koeppen (Universitaet Koblenz-Landau), Claus Schloemer

42.4 The intra-urban mobility in Southern Europe: A case study in Madrid and Rome since the beginning of the XXI century · Silvia Loi (CED - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and La Sapienza Università di Roma), Joaquín Recaño, Oliviero Casacchia, Massimiliano Crisci

42.5 Internal Migration, Mobility and Exclusion in Urban India: An Examination · Anil Kumar Jha (Government Girls P.G. College, Morar (Jiwaji University), Gwalior)

43. Population Projection Methods (Room A3) Chair: Andries de Jong (PBL)

43.1 How confident can we be in the projections of the older population of the United Kingdom? · Philip Rees (University of Leeds)

43.2 Innovations in International Migration for use in Global Population Projections · Nikola Sander (Vienna Institute of Demography (ÖAW)), Guy Abel, Samir K.C.

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43.3 A Method of County-Level Population Forecasting · Mario Reinhold (Niedersächsisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Lower Saxony Institute for Economic Research)), Stephan Lothar Thomsen

43.4 A probabilistic population and household forecasting model for subnational regions, with application to Sydney, Australia · Tom Wilson (The University of Queensland)

44. Spatial Implications of International Migration (Room A2) Chair: Salut Muhidin (Macquarie University)

44.1 A place called home: Residential choices of highly-skilled migrants in the Netherlands and the role of local amenities · Sanne Boschman (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment), Pascal Beckers

44.2 The Changing Immigrant-Native Division of Labor across U.S. Regional Labor Markets · Virginia Parks (University of Chicago)

44.3 Spatial Dimensions of New Migration Flows to Switzerland · Ilka Steiner (I-DEMO, University of Geneva), Philippe Wanner

44.4 International students and the region. The example of Goettingen/Germany · Rebecca Tlatlik (University of Kassel), Beatrice Knerr

45. Spatial Variations in Fertility (Room A7) Chair: Hill Kulu (University of Liverpool)

45.1 Spatiotemporal variation in fertility transition in Algeria · Mohammed Bedrouni (University Saad Dahleb Blida)

45.2 The evolution of cohort fertility in Spanish provinces. An overview over the last 40 years · Alessandra Carioli (University of Groningen and NIDI), Leo van Wissen

45.3 Approaches to understanding sub-national spatial variations in fertility: the example of Britain · Zhiqiang Feng (University of St Andrews), Elspeth Graham, Francesca Fiori

45.4 The Changing Relationship between Fertility and Economic Development: Evidence from 337 Sub-National European Regions · Jon Fox (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Sebastian Kluesener, Mikko Myrskylä

46. Small Areas and Population Subgroups (Room A12) Chair: Darren Smith (Loughborough University)

46.1 Student Populations and Urban Change: Diverse Geographies of Studentification · Stacey Balsdon (Loughborough University)

46.2 Looking for the causes of Spain's East-West urban area growth differences: Spatial and factor analysis (1970-2011) · Fernando Gil-Alonso (University of Barcelona), Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco, Isabel Pujadas-Rúbies

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46.3 Demographic Sustainability and Local and Regional Development: the Case of Portugal · Maria de Nazaré Roca (e-GEO Research Centre for Geography and Regional Planning, FCSH-UNL, Lisbon), Zoran Roca, Ana Rita Martins

46.4 Operationalizing the peri-urban concept: a probabilistic approach to the Swiss case · Anthe van den Hende (Geography Department, University of Geneva)

46.5 1901 and 1911 British Population Censuses: early 20th century household composition and structure in part of London · Nigel S. Walford (Centre for Earth and Environmental Sciences Research, Kingston University)

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ICPG 2013 Abstracts

1 Healthy Ageing & Social Networks (Room A901) Chair: Mirjam Klaassens (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 1.1 Social Networks and Everyday Activity Limitations among European Older Population Liili Abuladze (Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University, Estonia), Luule Sakkeus Demographic transformations have led to assumptions of decreasing communication and feelings of solidarity between generations. At the same time, social relationships have become more complex. With ageing, chronic diseases accumulate and in an era of increasing life expectancy this can lead to more prevalence in disability. People with severe health problems can have trouble reciprocating in basic social exchanges. The role of networks and support is therefore an important aspect in the well-being of elderly. This study analyses the relationship between social networks and disability outcomes of persons aged 50 and older among 16 European countries. The data in this analysis is based on SHARE (Survey of Ageing, Health and Retirement in Europe) wave 4, release 1 data. We looked at limitations in everyday activities as measured by the Global Activity Limitation Index (GALI), across three limitation categories (severely limited, limited, but not severely and not limited). The size of networks, network composition, frequency of contacts and satisfaction with networks were considered as determinants of well-being of elderly. Our main research assumption is that the characteristics of social networks provide protective effects for people who are limited in their activities. However, due to different demographic developments and varying possibilities in societies for interaction, the nature of network effects may differ between countries. Preliminary results suggest that the effect of major demographic shifts is not yet completely visible for the observed cohorts, probably due to them still belonging to the European baby boom generations. The severely limited 80+ group seems to be most vulnerable in terms of social network characteristics. Education seems to have a strong protective effect against the social isolation of severely limited older people. Eastern and Southern European countries show less social mobility, particularly in Slovenia, Spain and Italy. Additionally, geographic proximity of contacts will be controlled for. 1.2 Social network size and cognitive function in elderly, influenced by depression? Jisca S. Kuiper (University Medical Center Groningen), N. Smidt, R.C. Oude Voshaar, R.P. Stolk, S.U. Zuidema, H.C. Comijs, M.L. Stek, M. Zuidersma

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Background: Currently, cognitive decline is the strongest predictor of nursing home admission in Western European countries. However, most ageing people would prefer to age in place. A risk factor associated with a decline in cognitive function is having a small social network. Depression is also common in the ageing population and social network size is negatively correlated with depression. A decline in cognitive function is a frequently occurring symptom among depressed elderly. This increases the potential risk of depression being confused with cognitive decline, with additional consequences for diagnoses and treatments. Aim: This study aims to evaluate whether the relation between social network size and cognitive function depends on the presence of depression. Methods: The baseline NESDO sample has a cross-sectional case control study design, including 378 depressed elderly and 132 non depressed elderly (60 – 93 years). Social network size was evaluated by the number of persons the elderly had regular and important contact with. Cognitive function was classified in four cognitive domains; executive function, memory, processing speed and working memory. Depression was assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Multiple linear regression analysis was performed, adjusting for age, sex, education, severity of depression and functional disability. Findings: A larger social network is associated with a better score on one specific cognitive domain; memory, in non-depressed elderly. Depression interacts with the relation between social network size and memory. Therefore the positive relation between having a larger social network and memory depends on the presence of depression. In elderly with depression this relation is not significant. Discussion: These results suggest that the positive relation between having a larger social network and memory is modified by being depressed or not. This offers more insight information on what the focus of possible treatments or future interventions should be. 1.3 Family-life and well-being at older ages Daniël J. Herbers (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen), Clara H. Mulder Many Western countries face population ageing. One reason for ageing populations is the increased life expectancy, especially the number of years lived at older ages. At older ages, support and interaction becomes more focused on family members, because of reduced networks at these ages. Therefore it is useful to understand how changes and situations in relation to the family will contribute to wellbeing at older ages. Several studies have shown that family relations, particularly the relationship with a partner, are important to people’s wellbeing. Subjective well-being can be positively affected by partnership, and negatively by union dissolution. Moreover, individuals living with a partner tend to be happier and in better mental and physical health than those not living with a partner. Other studies have emphasized the role children can play in the well-being of individuals in, for example providing support. Thus far, research has focused on the immediate effect of such situations on wellbeing, but

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arguably it is at least as important to understand the long-term impact of situations in the family life course on wellbeing at older ages. Knowing the importance of a partner, we might find a lower self-reported wellbeing for elderly who recently experienced separation of widowhood. Furthermore, we expect widowhood to have a long-term effect. The impact of separation on wellbeing at older ages is questionable, since a divorce may be a desired or undesired event for the individual. In addition, the presence and support of children is expected to be important. Individuals who have contact with and receive support from their children on a regular base are expected to report a higher wellbeing. The aim of this research is to contribute to the understanding of how changes and situations over the life course can affect the wellbeing of individuals at older ages. This paper adds to the existing knowledge by exploring long-term impact of situations and changes in the family life course. Different waves of SHARE (Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) data will be used for the analysis. 1.4 What does ‘place’ in ‘ageing in place’ mean for informal caregivers? Marloes Oldenkamp (University Medical Center Groningen), Nynke Smidt, Salome Scholtens, Mariët Hagedoorn, Joris Slaets, Rafael Wittek, Ronald Stolk Background: Informal care will become a crucial element in our future health system as life expectancy is increasing. Informal care can be given to elderly in different contexts, like community-dwelling elderly and institutionalized elderly. Knowledge on determinants of caregiver experiences and caregiver health, in different contexts, is essential to maintain informal care in society. Aim: To explore differences in determinants of caregiver experiences and caregiver health for caregiving to community-dwelling elderly and institutionalized elderly. Design: Cross-sectional design. Methods: 518 pairs of informal caregiver and care recipient participated in the survey, consisting of caregiver information on: self-reported health, positive experiences (degree of satisfaction with caregiving), objective burden (different care tasks), and subjective burden (self-rated burden), and care recipient information on health situation ((I)ADL, formal homecare use), and living situation (community-dwelling vs. institutionalized). Logistic regression analyses were executed. Results: Of the care recipients (mean age: 80 years; 61 % female) 59% is community-dwelling. Caregivers (mean age: 64 years; 69% female) caring for a community-dwelling elder provide more often household and personal care, and have better self-reported health, regardless of other factors. Satisfaction with caregiving is related to providing household care and lower caregiver burden. Discussion: Caregiver health and care tasks provided differ between informal care for community-dwelling and for institutionalized elderly. Support programs aimed at sustaining informal care should therefore be tailor-made concerning the living situation of the care recipient. 2 Family & Migration (Room A900)

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Chair: Nicola Barban (University of Groningen) 2.1 Counterfactual Evidence of the Causes and Consequences of Tied Migration and Tied Staying Thomas Cooke (University of Connecticut) This research focuses on an important and vexing problem within the family migration literature: Identifying tied migrants and tied stayers. A tied migrant is usually defined as an individual who migrated as a family member but who would not have chosen to move if single and a tied stayer is an individual who did not migrate as a family member but who would have migrated if single. Identifying either is a daunting empirical task because this requires the identification of a difficult to observe counterfactual: What would be the migration behavior of a married person had they not been married? This research uses methods from the propensity score matching literature to match married individuals with comparable single individuals to create those counterfactuals. These counterfactual data are then used to examine the frequency of tied migration and tied staying and to examine the causes and consequences of tied migration and tied staying. 2.2 Migration and regional differences in access to local family networks Emma Lundholm (Centre for Population Studies/ Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University, Sweden) Geographical distance between family members is the result of accumulated migration and non-migration in all generations in different phases of life resulting in staying close, moving away or moving closer to family members. The landscape of local family networks is shaped by migration events throughout the life-course, both own and migration undertaken by other family members. The outcome varies in different regional contexts. There are regional variations in the access to local family networks among 60 year olds in Sweden. These patterns are important in understanding of future care burdens in different regions. The access to local family networks is not only varying on a broad rural-urban scale but also locally for instance between neighborhoods within metropolitan areas. This project also includes the study of local family network integration not only residentially but also on workplaces by comparing workplace id on the individual level within family networks. The purpose is to investigate the role of family networks in relation to local labour market characteristics on migration and non migration in different socio-economic groups and in different local labour markets. Expected outcomes is that there are local labour markets dominated by certain sectors and socio economic groups where intergenerational transmission of employers are more influential and local family network denser both in work life and in neighborhoods. It is also expected that other regions can be identified where family networks are dense regarding residential distribution but not in the work life sphere. The empirical study is based on Swedish register data, covering the total population, where it is possible to identify family networks in their geographical context on various geographic scales, down to neighborhood level. In the data it is

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possible to identify the residential location of parents, children and siblings, including inlaws in terms of partner’s parents and siblings. 2.3 Family networks, mobility and life style Gunnar Malmberg (Centre for Population Studies/ Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University), Erling Lundevaller Previous research has demonstrated the impact of lifestyle on the social health gap. One explanation could be the social influence in homogeneous social networks, where people mainly interact with people with similar background and similar lifestyle. Since lifestyle is often associated with income and education level, the socio-economic composition in networks may be crucial for the individual’s choice of lifestyle and consequently for health outcomes. But if family networks bridge social and geographical contexts, the networks may adjust class- or place-specific lifestyle behavior and social and geographical mobility may be crucial for countering health inequality. In this paper we address the impact of social and geographical mobility in family networks on lifestyle. The aim is to analyze to what extent changes in the socio-economic composition and the geographical distribution of family networks influence individual’s lifestyle in terms of smoking, drinking and physical activities. For our purpose, we have access to a longitudinal data-set from the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) covering 89.000 residents in Västerbotten County, including information about smoking, drinking and physical activities. These data are linked to the national register data on individual level, including information on a large variety of socio-economic indicators and also on complete family networks (partner, parents, siblings, adult children) with socio-economic information linked to the relatives. By use of regression models we analyze (a) the association between socio-economic composition in the family network and life style, and also (b) how changes in the socio-economic composition in the family network is associated with and changes in life style. 2.4 European identification in bi-national and uni-national marriages in the Netherlands: is there a difference? Leo Van Wissen (NIDI), Liesbeth Heering, Hanna van Solinge The European Union has grown over the past 50 years, both in terms of the number of member states as in terms of interdependence and interconnectedness. Apart from the economic unification, the EU aspires to increase social and cultural integration of the member states. Whether this works out, is still rather unclear. Bi-national couples can be considered as icons of this social and cultural integration, and it is therefore interesting to examine to what extent being part of a bi-national marriage is associated with different orientations to European integration and a stronger sense of belonging to Europe. Couples with differing European nationalities are at the core of the ‘EUMARR’ project. Four countries participate in EUMARR; Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and

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Switzerland. In this particular paper we focus on the Dutch survey data gathered in 2012.The survey provided us with data of 722 individuals in a binational relationship, and 224 individuals in a uni-national relationship. The participants are aged 30 to 45 and live in the Hague or Amsterdam. We examine whether there is a relation between couple type and regional, national and EU identification. To what extent is this relationship mediated by age, gender, socio-economic status, educational level, relationship duration? And, is this relationship different according to the country of origin (in case of foreign decent)? 3 Highly Skilled Migration: North-South and Return Mobilities (Room A8) Chair: Ajay Bailey (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 3.1 “A brain gain with a brain drain”?: The Impact of Migration to Europe on Senegalese Children’s Educational Investments Pau Baizan (ICREA and Universitat Pompeu Fabra) Few studies have examined empirically how international migration can stimulate investments in education in the origin countries, and even fewer have focused in Sub-Saharan Africa countries, were migration is highly positively selected according to educational attainment. Here I investigate two hypotheses: (1) family networks abroad have a positive effect on educational investments at home, by increasing the resources available, and (2) Migration opportunities foster educational investments, by increasing the incentives to invest in education. Detailed educational and migration histories, as well as parental household background information, are obtained from the Senegalese population samples of the Migration between Africa and Europe (MAFE) surveys. These surveys took place in 2008 and 2011 in Senegal, France, Italy and Spain. I apply event history analysis methods to model education, and simultaneous equations models to investigate the possible endogeneity between educational enrollment and migration. Preliminary results show a clear positive effect of having family members residing in a European country on educational enrolment in Senegal, thus giving support to the first hypothesis. By contrast, the results do not provide significant evidence in support to the second hypothesis. 3.2 From Nation to Profession: State Strategy and Imagined Geographies of Highly-skilled Return Migration to Israel Nir Cohen (Department of Geography and Environment, Bar Ilan University) Recent evidence suggests that states in countries of origin deploy various policies geared towards their highly-skilled migrants. However, analyses of such ‘sending state strategies’ have been mostly concerned with their role in forging transnational linkages with migrants in order to spur ling-distance development through expatriate networks. Far less attention has been paid to ‘return strategies’, namely state-led policies aimed at repatriating those possessing invaluable economic and cultural capital. This

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scholarly gap is particularly critical in the case of Israel, where initiatives to reach out to (elite) migrants have long constituted a cornerstone of state ideology. Drawing on a critical analysis of primary resources, this paper examines Israel’s return strategy, making two parallel arguments; First, that a two-pronged approach, termed ‘maintain/return’, has been adopted by the state as a way to secure ties with – and ultimately return – (highly-skilled) migrants. Secondly, that the justifications for encouraging and supporting return have changed considerably over time, in congruence with the state’s imagined geographies of return(ees). Specifically, while early efforts were rationalized by the need to repatriate migrants in the name of strengthening the nation, emphasizing as such the geo-political fragility of the young state and expatriates’ (and their children’s) weakening ethno-national identity, more recent initiatives utilized a trajectory of meritocracy that highlights returnees’ potential economic contribution, (individual) professional satisfaction as well as middle class, family-oriented considerations of ‘quality of life’. The changing return discourse is emblematic of the new geographies of return(ees) produced by the state and leading economic sectors. The paper contributes to the burgeoning literature on state-diaspora relations, highlighting return as a key – albeit one - policy tool within sending state strategies. 3.3 To Settle or Return: The Integration of Highly-Skilled Women Migrants in Germany Grit Grigoleit (Helmut-Schmidt University Hamburg) Most developed countries these days try to curtail low-skilled immigration and adopt policies that foster the migration of highly-skilled workers. Accordingly, the German government began in 2000 to initiate substantial changes in policy, agenda, and legislation in order to engage in the international competition for talent and to attract the best brains. However, as research indicates, the integration performance of highly-skilled migrants into the German labor market has been less than favorable. Even though numerous companies complain about the shortage of skilled labor and fear a competitive disadvantage over other countries, the number of women migrants, in particular, who maintain a position that meets their skills and qualifications, remains comparatively low. Based on empirical findings of the BMBF-funded research project “The Integration of Highly-Skilled Women Migrants in Germany’s Labor Market”, this paper examines the complexities that surround highly-skilled women migrants’ employment and career advancement in Germany’s technology sector. Although highly-skilled women migrants are privileged with regard to education, competencies, and abilities, their integration into the labor market is nonetheless shaped by cultural and gendered norms, ethnicized labor market conditions, and differing value systems and work ethics. Women migrants, who aim to work for companies in the technology sector, face a traditionally highly gender-segregated sector. Differences in attitudes towards technology and technical skills, the pressure of work and family balance, and the lack of a female friendly environment amongst other factors slow down the transferral of their cultural capital, impact their professional identity, and pose impediments to their

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participation in the labor market and their career advancement. Yet the majority of the interviewed women intended to stay permanently in Germany. As they had developed strong local ties and networks that fostered their social integration they objected the popular image of being “birds of passage”. Consequently, this paper explores the intersection of labor market structures, immigration regulations, and societal factors that affect women migrants’ employability and their long-term integration in Germany. 3.4 Highly-skilled Nigerians in Germany, the UK and the USA in comparison Melanie Mbah (Department of Geography and Geoecology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) Highly-skilled Nigerians indicate a preference for the UK and the USA as target countries, because of the language, colonial ties and maybe most important personal networks. There are highly-skilled Nigerians all over the world, a lot of them in Africa and also in many European countries. Of course, less job opportunities in Nigeria play a big role in the decision-making process for migration. Nevertheless, this is not the only and most important reason. Migration decisions are rather complex and individual. Many of these migrants had the intention of going abroad to further their education and the wish of return to Nigeria in the future. In this case-study about 70 semi-structured interviews have been conducted in three countries (Germany, the UK and the USA). They will reveal the differences between those highly-skilled migrants regarding their understanding of home, degree of integration (such as marriage or own a house) and their intentions to return to Nigeria, (e.g. own a house in Nigeria or business contacts). Part of the analysis is also to make manifest, the differences between the highly-skilled Nigerian migrants in the three target countries. The socio-economic backround and the ethnic/ religious origin as well as the reasons for the migration decisions are taken into account in order to create different types of migrants. 4 Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labour Markets: Regional Labor Markets I (Room A2) Chair: Sierdjan Koster (University of Groningen) 4.1 Educative Profiles of Internal Migration to Medium and Small Cities in Mexico Angélica Reyna (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo e IIS-UNAM), Jorge Dettmer Since 1970’s decade, Mexico has observed an important process of deconcentration of metropolitan areas, with a notable increment in the number of medium and small cities, which have incresed its migratory attraction. Those new urban locations have played an important function in the economic dynamism of the different regional contexts of the country. Some of the medium and small cities are characterized as

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university cities, because the relevant of educative services and its student presence. In the last two decades, some regions and cities have had profits with the presence of lower and higher skilled graduates, including migrants. In this paper there will be exposed the educative profile of the different internal flows, first at state level and then to medium and small cities of the country. This to consider the changes in direction and characteristics of the internal migration, the flows related with educative services and it participation in labour, during the period from 1990 to 2010. The paper is based on the socio-demographic information, demographic estimations on migration derived from the population censuses of 1990 to 2010, as well as geographical information. The workhave support of applications of Geographical Information Systems to identify the different contexts (states, municipalities and urban localities) and the migratory flows. 4.2 Analysing the effect of education in the regional patterns of mobility in 21st Century Spain Pau Miret-Gamundi (Center for Demographic Studies), Elena Vidal-Coso Population under analysis is composed for individuals aged 30-50 who have finished their education and are working at the time of observation. We are dealing with the Spanish Labour Force, a household quarterly panel survey which changes one sixth of its sample every wave. We are treating data from 1999 till 2011, with a sample size of 1,856,518 observations of 530,127 individuals. We are distinguishing among those: 1) who were born at the same province where they are living, 2) were born in another Spanish province or 3) are foreign born. Among Spanish born population 21% move to another province, and the percentage of foreign born population is of 9%. There are two research questions: 1) Are graduates among Spanish born population more prone to move to another province than those with lower educational attainment? and 2) Are the proportion of graduates similar among native and foreign born population living in Spain? The answer to the first question is clear: once age and sex have been controlled for, as higher is the educational attainment, higher the domestic mobility rate, for both sexes and across all the considered age-range. To answer the second question is more complicated, as we realise that all variables are interacting: Firstly, we conclude than holding a university degree has a clear cohort component, as it is less likely as oldest is a person; Secondly, we add than this cohort factor is much more noticeable for women than for men; Thirdly, although foreign born population are less likely to have a degree, the cohort component is opposite to the native trend, as to be graduated is less likely as youngest is the immigrant and, moreover, differences between sexes are higher among natives than among foreigners. We plan to analyse further changes in time and regional patterns. 4.3 Explaining Cross-National Differences in Internal Migration Age Patterns: The Role of Life-Course Transitions Bernard Aude (University of Queensland), Martin Bell, Elin Charles-Edwards

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Migration is an age-selective process, young adult being the most mobile group. The propensity to migrate typically peaks at young adult ages and then steadily declines with increasing age (Rogers and Castro 1981). Underpinning these regularities is a collection of life-course transitions, such as entry in the labour force and partnership formation, which often trigger a change of place of residence (Mulder 1993; Warnes 1992). Despite these regularities, there is mounting evidence of cross-national differences in the ages at which migration occurs. In particular, internal migration in Asia is strongly concentrated in the early twenties, whereas in Europe and North America migration peaks at older ages and is spread across a wider age range (Bell and Muhidin 2009). This paper aims to explain cross-national variations in the age patterns of internal migration by establishing how the relationship between migration and key life-course transitions varies across countries. Using event-history analysis, the paper compares the relative importance of leaving higher education, entering the labour force, partnering and starting a family on short-distance migration in eight countries: Australia, Germany, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, the United States, and South Korea and Tanzania. This in turn will allow us to establish the relative significance of particular life-course transitions across a diverse sample of countries and to link these variations to differences in migration age patterns. This research will ultimately contribute to advancing our understanding of the way in which internal migration differs around the world. 5 Methods in Migration Research (Room A3) Chair: Philip Rees (University of Leeds) 5.1 Modelling and analysing sub-national migration patterns in the United Kingdom Nik Lomax (University of Leeds), John Stillwell Alongside births and deaths, migration is the main driver of population change in the United Kingdom (UK) at the sub-national (local authority) administrative level. As with international migration, internal migration is also difficult measure accurately between censuses, relying upon administrative data obtained from National Health Service records which is then scaled and adjusted in various ways to take into account different population sub-groups. Currently, three different national statistical agencies in the UK produce annual inter-censal estimates of internal and international migration; data availability and estimation methodologies differ between England & Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This is true of the three types of migration distinguished in the paper: within country moves, cross-border moves within the UK and international moves to and from overseas, each of which is considered separately. This paper produces a consistent set of origin-destination estimates for migration in the UK between local authorities by age and sex, filling in the data gaps using Iterative Proportional Fitting methods. We analyse the changing pattern of migration over a ten year period between 2001/02 and 2010/11 and visualise the results using a variety of

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mapping techniques for both the net effect at local authority level and origin-destination flows. Particular attention is given to the cross-border flows, where a migrant moves between two different countries within the UK, as this is a migration type where data are particularly sparse and which has received relatively little attention hitherto. Local authority areas are grouped on the basis of their age profiles to better understand and explain the pattern of migration. This helps to expose areas that exhibit unexpected patterns, such as those with large numbers of members of the armed forces or those with large student populations. 5.2 Estimating annual migration flows by age and sex for subnational geographies in the UK, 2001-2011 Paul Norman (School of Geography, University of Leeds), Nik Lomax, John Stillwell, Phil Rees Having data on migration between local government areas by age and sex is an important component of annual estimates of population. Changes in migration levels at this sub-national geography are indicators of social change and provide challenges for resource allocation. Outside of census year, in the absence of a population register in the UK, there is a need to estimate migration between areas using proxy data sources. One such source is derived from patient registers when people move house and inform their doctor of their change of address. Unfortunately, whilst data are available annually, the geographical and age-sex information is not sufficient in itself to provide direct counts of migrants in the required detail. This methodological paper will demonstrate how Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) can be used to update base year local level origin-destination flows to subsequent years where only in/out totals are available and how nonlinear regression can be used to estimate age-sex schedules from grouped and / or sparse age-specific migration rates. An interim step making the estimation process more efficient is to group together local areas which have similar migration rates by age using k-means classification. A problem overcome here is that the data availability and specification is different in England & Wales from that in Scotland and also in Northern Ireland so producing a UK-wide migration matrix is especially challenging. The result of this work is an annual time-series of counts of migrants by age and sex between origins and destinations for local areas across the UK for 2001 to 2011. 5.3 The long-run decline in Australian internal migration intensities Tom Wilson (The University of Queensland), Elin Charles-Edwards, Martin Bell In his seminal ‘Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition’, Zelinsky (1971) posited a superadvanced society marked by a decline in aggregate migration intensities. While stage-based theories have fallen out of academic favour, there is a growing body of evidence documenting a sustained declined in mobility in a number of industrialised countries. In the US several researchers have engaged in a lively debate about the scale and causes of the decline, but there is increasing evidence that internal migration intensities are falling in a large number of countries (Bell and Muhidin 2009). This

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paper documents internal migration trends in Australia from 1971 to 2012, drawing on both one year and five year fixed interval transition data from the quinquennial census and annual estimates of moves from the national health register maintained by Medicare. We focus migration intensities at three geographical scales: (i) moves between the eight States and Territories, (ii) between 69 Temporal Statistical Divisions (large functional regions) and (iii) between ~1360 Statistical Local Areas. To ensure robust time series, our analysis is based on zonal systems with (very nearly) consistent temporal boundaries. Differences in migration concepts, age-time plans, observation intervals and population coverage, together with changes over time in data editing and processing complicate analysis and interpretation but the results demonstrate a sustained drop in internal migration intensities at all spatial scales over several decades, even when standardised for changes in population age structure. Possible reasons for the observed changes are discussed. 5.4 Comparing regional intensities of internal migration in Spain with Courgeau’s K index Francisco Villavivencio (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics), Joaquín Recaño-Valverde In 1973, French demographer Daniel Courgeau published a paper which offered a very relevant methodological approach in the field of migration studies. In his work he provided a simple method that allowed avoiding the main obstacle of cross-national comparisons of internal migrations: the effect of the administration framework on migration measurement. However, little research has been conducted on this topic until recently. In 2009, Australian demographer Martin Bell and his team did an extensive work for the United Nations using census micro-data from IPUMS-I of the University of Minnesota, proving that Courgeaus’s K index seems to be the best indicator that is free of the influence of the spatial scale. In our work we will address a regional study of the K index in Spain during the period 1988-2011. The source of information is the micro-data of Residential Variation Statistics (EVR, “Estadísticas de Variaciones Residenciales”). The analysis takes into account different variables such as sex, age and nationality / country of birth. The aim of our research is to answer the following question: In which Spanish region internal migrations are more intense? We are going to analyze the results of 9 Spanish Autonomous Communities, studying only Communities that have more than one province. Therefore, three geographic scales, whose border crossing determines a migration, are being considered: the province, the intra-regional area (census area) and the municipality. These three levels vary from region to region. Preliminary results show that the proposed index by Courgeau is valid and consistent in Spain. 6 Population Geographies at the Local Level (Room A7) Chair: Aslan Zorlu (University of Amsterdam) 6.1 Religious and ethnic neighbourhood profiles of Vienna: A comparison of two dimensions of urban diversity

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Ramon Bauer (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Vienna Institute of Demography), Markus Speringer International immigration is a key driver of population growth in many large Western European cities. Figures from Statistics Austria show that in 2001, almost a quarter of Vienna’s population was foreign-born. The influx of people of different social, ethnic, cultural and religious background affects the composition of urban populations in ways that go beyond the conventional disaggregation by age and sex. However, the literature on urban segregation and diversity is dominated by the ethnic dimension, while only little attention has been paid to the changing religious landscapes of cities. Within this context, the WIREL project (WI for Wien/Vienna and REL for Religion) – funded by WWTF (Vienna Science and Technology Fund) – aims to determine the role that religion plays in shaping the social and demographic structure of the population of Vienna in the past, present and future. This paper focuses on recent changes in the religious composition of the population of Vienna, and how these changes relate to recent waves of international immigration. We draw on data from the 2001 census to develop a set of indicators of segregation and residential diversity that capture the mix of different groups in small-scale urban areas to examine the religious and ethnic composition of Vienna’s population at the level of census districts. We aim to answer the question as to whether the city’s neighbourhoods are more segregated or diversified by religion or by ethnicity and how these two dimensions affect each other. The results reveal different types of segregated and mixed (i.e. diversified) neighbourhoods along both dimensions of urban diversity. Within the WIREL project, the analysis of religious and ethnic neighbourhood profiles allows us to assess the impact of residential segregation and diversity in terms of social cohesion, group-specific norms and values, as well as intergenerational transmission of demographic behaviour. 6.2 Gender contracts at the local level Karen Haandrikman (Department of Human Geography, Stockholm University) The concept of ‘gender contract’ describes the unequal division between men and women as a gender system that is constructed, controlled and maintained by a gender-based power structure (Hirdman 1990). Geographical differences in gender contracts are shaped by a combination of the overall structure of gender relations and the way they are arranged by local labour market conditions, in the demographic structure, in history and in traditions. Using statistical data, local gender contracts were mapped for Sweden by Forsberg (1997) and Amcoff (2001). These studies found clear regional differences in gender equality, distinguishing a metropolitan gender contract, a family-oriented small-scale gender contract, an agro-industrial gender contract, a company-based gender contract and a northern light gender contract. Much has changed since these publications that used data from 20 and 10 years ago respectively. The aim of this paper is to examine what gender issues look like in present-day Sweden, at different geographical levels. Using register data and the EQUIPOP software (Östh et al., 2013), we will create egocentric neighbourhoods with

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fixed population size, based on the location of the residence and workplace of individuals. The main advantages of this method are to reduce problems occurring because of unequal population densities, to be better able to capture effects of social interaction, and an easier interpretation of neighbourhoods. As gender contracts identify the level of access to education, politics, labour markets among men and women, we will include a range of demographic, socio-economic and policy-related variables from the PLACE database to construct local indices of gender equality. The new indices will be a useful resource in planning, and in demographic and spatial analyses. 6.3 Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities Daniel Liviano (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya), Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod Population Economics is an area that has attracted a growing number of both theoretical and empirical contributions in recent years and in a wide range of journals. Inside this area, many contributions rely on issues related with population growth, which is analysed from a broad type of perspectives like, among others, relationship between population and jobs’ growth, internal and international migration, locational preferences of individuals, commuting, counterurbanization, etc. However, there are other areas that deserve further attention. One of these areas is age distribution, which refers to the distribution of population along the age dimension. The other fundamental area that deserves full attention is the role of space. Although space is a cornerstone for many demographic theories, and spatial effects in population dynamics have been largely theorized, many demographic studies lack a spatial perspective (Tiefelsdorf 2000). This is, when it comes to empirical research, the formal modeling of spatial effects is still a matter pending. This omission implies the assumption that population dynamics in a specific area has no relationship with what happens in neighbouring areas, which is clearly unrealistic. In this context, this paper explores the complex population’s age structure of Catalan municipalities between 1999 and 2009. Catalonia is a very heterogeneous territory, and age pyramids vary considerably across different areas of the territory, existing geographical factors shaping municipalities’ age distributions. By means of spatial statistics methodologies, this piece of research work tries to assess which spatial factors determine the location, scale and shape of local distributions. The results show that there exist different distributional patterns across the geography according to specific local determinants. 6.4 Occupational Mobility and Deprived Neighbourhoods: Does living in a deprived neighbourhood reduce your ability to achieve occupational progression? Maarten van Ham (Delft University of Technology), David Manley The occupational mobility literature has tended to focus on macro level explanations for individual success, including the functioning of the labour market as a whole and the processes encapsulated in the ideas of escalator regions. The neighbourhood effects literature, by contrast has been more concerned with explaining the binary outcomes of employment versus unemployment. In this paper we explore the links

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between two levels of micro scale neighbourhoods and investigate if neighbourhood has a substantial and significant influence of an individual’s occupational progression between 1991 and 2001. We do this using unique longitudinal data from Scotland. The paper adds to the literature by moving beyond the usual full population models by investigating the outcomes of occupational mobility for sub-groups in the data. Doing so reveals disparities between different tenure groups, which in turn provides insight into the oft cited but rarely investigated selection effects that invalidate many neighbourhood effects models. In recognition of this, the final set of models turn investigation around and demonstrate that occupational mobility is as much of a driver of the neighbourhood deprivation outcome of an individual as neighbourhood is as an explanatory variable in predicting occupational mobility. This is an important finding for the neighbourhood effects literature as it demonstrates conclusively the causality issues facing the analyst. 7 Healthy Ageing: Inequalities at Regional Level (Room A901) Chair: Fanny Janssen (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 7.1 Regional differences in long-term care in Germany. A study based on the concept of disability-free life expectancy Daniel Kreft (Rostock Center for the Study of Demographic Change, University of Rostock), Gabriele Doblhammer Background: Healthy aging has become one of the main challenges in aging societies. The long-term decrease in mortality results in a continuing raise of persons in older and oldest ages. Since degenerative disorders and diseases are highly concentrated in these highest age groups, aging populations experience an ongoing expansion in the share of persons in bad health. Although an increase in morbidity prevalence can be stated in all highly developed countries, the pace and extent of changes differ between and also within the countries. Objective: This study explores spatial patterns in care need in Germany by using the Health Ratio (HR) - an established and comparable measure to identify the health situation in a region. Data and Methods: We use the German Care Need statistics 2009, an official register of all recipients of help from the German public long-term care insurance, in combination with regional and national life table estimates and socio-economic indicators of the regional database of the German National Statistical Office. Results: We find consistent clusters of regions with low or high HR, which extend beyond the borders of federal states and are linked to the region’s socio-economic background. Applying meta-regression models, we find effects of regional characteristics on the between-region variance. A high population density, a high mean household income, a low unemployment, and low premature mortality are significantly linked to a high HR. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first study that for Germany shows the existence of regional differentials in care need and the resulting HR. Even more

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important, we show that these differentials are linked to the regional socio-economic structure which opens the possibility of policy interventions. 7.2 The role of selective migration in explaining health differences between shrinking and other regions in the Netherlands Aletta Dijkstra (Unit of PharmacoEpidemiology & PharmacoEconomics (PE

2), University

of Groningen), Eva Kibele, Antonia Verweij, Fons van der Lucht, Fanny Janssen

Causes and consequences of population decline are manifold and not only of economic nature, but can extend into many different spheres of private and public life. In the Netherlands, population health in regions suffering population decline is on average worse than in other regions. Differences in the socio-demographic population structure cannot explain this health difference entirely. The objective of our research is therefore to assess whether and to what degree selective migration can explain health differences between regions with population decline and other regions in the Netherlands. Analyses will be based on data from the Dutch population register, which contains demographic information about all persons living in the Netherlands, including migration histories. For the year 2009, this will be linked with the Dutch Housing and Living Survey, which contains, among other things, information about socioeconomic status and self-rated health. Self-rated health will be the outcome variable in the analyses; migration status, demographic and socioeconomic variables will serve as explanatory variables. In order to determine the role of selective migration on the existing health differences between shrinking and other regions, we will assess whether movers and stayers have a different health status. We will compare the health status of movers and stayers in shrinking and non-shrinking regions and determine whether this picture changes when demographic and socioeconomic factors are controlled for. Different models will be estimated for people in working ages (20-64 years) and retired people (65+ years). Finally, in order to judge the impact of migration on overall population health, migration intensities will be calculated. 7.3 Life expectancy in the European Russia: looking for geographical trends Alexander Alekseev (Moscow State University) Let's consider average life expectancy for urban and rural dwellers in the regions of the European Russia. For women the distinctions are much less, thus we’ll consider indicators for men. In 2008 average life expectancy for men was 62,5 years in the cities of Russia and 60 years in the countryside, a difference of 2,5 years. Unlike the Russia’s average, life expectancy in villages of the eastern republics of the North Caucasus is higher than in cities. Life expectancy for men exceeds the Russia’s average by 10-17 years there. In the Russian regions of the North Caucasus life expectancy both in the cities and in villages is 2-3 years above the Russia’s average. On the contrary, in the North, Northwest and Center of the European Russia life expectancy both in the cities and in villages is practically everywhere below the

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Russia’s average (except the Moscow Region). Central Black Earth, Volgo-Vjatsky, Volga and Ural regions form an intermediate zone. Let’s try to explain the following situation: across the European Russia there is a obvious tendency of decreasing life expectancy values from the south to the north, complicated by such factors as religion and the presence of large cities. The causing factors could be as follows: • environment: soil fertility decreases northward, and the agriculture becomes less

effective. • private subsidiary farming: better environmental conditions contribute to higher

incomes allowing to eat well.

character of settlement: average population numbers in rural settlements increase southward;

history: southern areas were settled later and have more active and healthy population.

• emigration: smaller settlements and settling history have caused the greatest outflow of rural population from the central and northwest regions.

7.4 Crisis and Health – A Hungarian Case Study Annamaria Uzzoli (Institute of Regional Studies, Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) It is unquestionable that the crisis has been taking effect on the people’s state of health, although the impacts are complex. Does the present crisis have effects on health and life expectancy at all? If it does, what factors can influence the changes of health inequalities? In the context of the crisis what is the role of economic mechanisms in the run of health situation? Which social groups are principally exposed to health deterioration occurring as a result of the crisis? The current objective is to answer these above questions with both of quantitative and qualitative analytical tools. My aim is in the one hand to interpret the hypothetical connection between crisis and health through the analysis of the specialised literature and the experiences of semi-structured interviews, and on the other hand to present the Hungarian situation with the help of statistical induction. I wish to emphasise that the study examines primarily the relationship between the crisis and health. The economic crisis of the last years has rather differentiated the areas in a better situation, deepening the contrast between the capital and provincial areas. The long-term spatial effects of crisis may result in the slight increase of territorial inequalities and the continuous lag of backward areas. The scale of health differences within Hungary is surprising. The following regional analysis finds a medium-strength relationship between unemployment and life expectancy. These health differences structure is not confined to differences between the poor and the rest of society, but instead run right across society with every level in the social hierarchy having worse health than the one above it. This is the main point where health differences have a typical pattern due to the socio-economic spatial position of the Hungarian counties and micro-regions.

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8 Arctic Population Geography (Room A12) Chair: Kim van Dam/Tekke Terpstra (Arctic Centre, University of Groningen) 8.1 21

st Century Canadian Inuit Ordinary Mobility: Beyond traditional

territories Béatrice Collignon (Geography Dept. - University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne) Inuit contemporary mobility in Northern Canada is usually understood as either traditional travelling "on the land" (as the Inuit say) or the decision to move from one settlement to another or to a non-Arctic town, a change of residence which is at least partly surveyed by Canada's regular Censuses. But an important part of Inuit contemporary mobility is ignored: their travels to un-familiar or less familiar places, i.e.: all the trips that an increasing number of Inuit take either to other Inuit communities or to Southern Canadian towns, or even to places abroad. These trips are taken for a number of very different reasons such as health treatment (including childbirth), meetings, sports tournaments, festivals and local jamborees, temporary job, training, visiting, but also Christmas shopping and holiday breaks. This form of mobility has greatly increased and has become more complex in the last 20 years, in terms of range and network. It is also an important part of Inuit lives in Northern communities, for those who do travel as well as for those who do not, or very rarely. Yet, there is hardly any data available on these movements, which appear to be overlooked by anthropologists, cultural geographers and demographers alike. Based on first hand geographic and ethnographic information collected both formally and informally during various field-work campaigns since 1986 in Western Nunavut and the NWT I will present an overview of these travels as experienced in that area and discuss how this new form of ordinary mobility is reshaping family networks, gender relations and local politics in Inuit communities. I will also argue that mobility is part of Inuit well-being and how economic development programs as well as wellness programs could, and should, take it into account. 8.2 Constructing Normality: Deconstructing the “problematic” mobile workers in the Arctic Petroleum Industry Gertrude Eilmsteiner-Saxinger (Austrian Academy of Sciences, Institute for Urban and Regional Research (ISR); Austrian Polar Research Institute (APRI)) Long-distance commute work and so called fly-in/fly-out (FIFO) operations are essential methods for the provision of labour force for the extractive industries in the remote arctic and sub-arctic. So far little research is available on this particular group of mobile work force. In public discourses as well as partly in the academia, FIFO workers are constructed as being problematic on the one hand in interaction with resource communities as well as in the context of their family life. Subsequently, the

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mobile lifestyle is connotated with leading to deviant behavior. However, my research among FIFO workers in Fort McMurray in Canada as well in the West Siberian Basin has shown that this group consists of a variety of people in terms of social characteristics such as gender, age and professions as well as in terms of values and ideas. This research has shown that FIFO workers are not living in a social vacuum while at site and therefore, should be seen not only as sole human resources but as partners and stakeholders when it comes to negotiations with communities and the facilitation of FIFO operations in general. Seeing FIFO workers as mature stakeholders with specific needs and clear ideas about the way of life and interaction with receiving resource communities allows to address the benefits of such an interaction as well as to elaborate means of mitigating existing problems. This paper elaborates theoretical notions of “normality” of mobile and multilocal life-styles based on ethnographic research. 8.3 How do social networks shape migration flows in Russian Arctic? Nadezhda Zamyatina (Lomonosov Moscow State University), Alexey Yashunsky The main method of our research was the analysis of career paths studied on the material of Internet social network www.vk.com. The selection of such a method was done due to two reasons. First was the absence of available detailed regional statistic data in Russia to study migrations. The second reason was to use the most actual micro-data. The personal user’s page at www.vk.com includes the information of birth place, the year and place of school (university) graduation and working place of the user. The data collected was following: personal pages of youth (20-29 years old) once studied at any school in some selected Arctic Russian towns and cities: Norilsk (data collected in January 2013, 14 833 pages), Magadan, Noyabr'k and Megion (September 2013, accordingly 11130, 10 567 and 5 958 pages), Muravlenko and Gubkinsky (July 2013, 5 221 and 3 263 personal pages). Our research includes the personal pages of not less than 10% of the whole population of selected cities and towns. Only approximately 50% of persons in our research wrote they are still residents of a city after they have finished school in it. We have investigated the spectrum of the birthplaces and the places of residence. The main result is that the migration paths depend on the strong social ties such as diaspora (a young man or woman moves from the North to the place where his or her parents were born) and organizational proximity networks of mono-specialized towns (migration flows are shaped through the university). In the first case there formed a kind of 2-generations migrations cycle. The unexpected finding is that the Arctic zone is now a great source of young and often well-educated human capital for old Russian 9 Highly Skilled Migration, Gender and Family (Room A8) Chair: Clara H. Mulder (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 9.1 ‘For the sake of the family and future’: the linked lives of highly skilled Indian migrants in the Netherlands and United Kingdom.

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Anu Kõu (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen), Ajay Bailey, Clara H. Mulder, Leo van Wissen

In this paper we address how significant others, such as parents, spouse and children, shape the life course events and the migration trajectories of highly skilled Indian migrants in the Netherlands and United Kingdom. We employ a qualitative approach to the life course framework to highlight the linked lives that can alter the migration decisions. Our findings are drawn from 47 semi-structured biographic interviews. The results underscore how further migration decisions are often informed by the implications of the different life stages of the significant others. The key elements in the lives of significant others that affect migration decision are care-giving of and for the parents, employment opportunities of the spouse, and cultural upbringing and educational considerations for the children. Only by embedding individuals within the contexts of the people in their lives, we are able to fully comprehend the complexities of future migration decision making among the highly skilled. 9.2 Unsettling the Yin-Yang Harmony: An Analysis of Gender Bias in Chinese-German Academic Mobility Maggi Leung (Department of Human Geography and Planning, Utrecht University) This paper maps out the gendered nature of international academic mobility. Drawing on a qualitative research (conducted in 2009-2010) on Chinese scholars who have professional mobility experiences in the Chinese-German academic space, the paper demonstrates how the practice, meanings and perceptions of academic mobility are highly gendered. Research findings highlight how gender as a social institution, intersecting other powerful social institutions (e.g. age, place of affiliations, social and professional background), facilitates and inhibits academic mobility differently among men and women. By making gender dynamics in the academic mobility field more visible, this paper contributes in opening up spaces to challenge and eliminate structural and structuralised gender bias. 9.3 Family makes a difference! Migration intentions of new waves of skilled labour migrants in Germany Lenore Sauer (German Federal Institute for Population Research), Barbara Heß, Andreas Ette Confronted with structural demographic challenges – declining labour force potentials as well as accelerating skill mismatches on their labour markets – a growing number of European countries started to adopt new skilled labour migration policies concerning third country nationals. The sustainability of these policies depends largely on the migrants’ intentions to stay in their new host countries with a permanent or at least long-term perspective. Nevertheless, little information exists on the intentions of this newest wave of skilled labour migrants to stay and existing research findings with their focus on return intentions of earlier migrant generations – characterised by a

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fundamentally different socio-economic structure and institutional context – are hardly applicable today. Over the last decade, Germany has been one of the most prominent examples transforming its previously restrictive migration policy towards an active recruitment of international talent and high potentials. Between the implementation of the Green Card in the year 2000 and the European Blue Card in the year 2012, Germany has introduced several reforms all based on the intention to attract migrants with higher educational and professional qualifications. This paper sheds light on the experiences of these current skilled labour migrants in Germany, making innovative use of three surveys originally developed by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees to evaluate these policy developments. Firstly, the proposed paper describes which immigrants opt for a permanent and which for a temporary stay in Germany. Secondly, it tests existing hypotheses about economic, social, cultural and institutional determinants on the newcomers’ intentions to stay in Germany. Next to a theoretical inquiry into the dynamics of this most recent wave of international labour migration, the paper’s results provide empirical information to adjust and strengthen Europe’s labour migration policies. 10 Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labour Markets: Graduate Migration I (Room A2) Chair: Viktor Venhorst (University of Groningen) 10.1 Internal migration of young graduates: motivations and projects of highly qualified rural youth not returning to their home region Patrick Rérat (University of Neuchâtel) The migration of young graduates is of great concern in rural regions. A clear emphasis is often put in political debates on highly-educated people as key resources to local development. Traditional interpretations of internal migration have put forward factors related to the labour market (differential between sending and receiving regions in terms of wages and/or employment). Such explanations do not seem to be sufficient any more to explain the complexity of migration patterns of young graduates. First, these explanations focus on the dominant flow but neglect counter-flows. In other words, they do not explain why some people do one thing (migrate to central regions) while some others do the opposite (go back to their home region). Second, the literature on migration has stressed the increasing importance of other factors than economic considerations such as lifestyle (amenities migration) as well as “personal” reasons (migration embedded in the life-course, role of the partner, etc.). This paper addresses these issues in a peripheral region of Switzerland (Jura). Combining a questionnaire survey and interviews, the paper gives insight on the migration and residential moitivations of young adults who decided not to return to their rural home region after graduation. A focus is also put on their current migration projects (feasibility and desirability of a return to the home region, obstacles, etc.).

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10.2 Onwards or homewards? The complex processes of graduate migration. Joanna Sage (ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton), Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham Pre-existing research on graduate migration in the UK has mainly focused on inter-regional flows of young educated migrants, the uneven redistribution of human capital and how this impacts on regional economies and labour markets. This paper argues that the focus on labour-motivated graduate migration, and the absence of data enabling individual migration histories to be traced longitudinally across the post-student phase of the lifecourse, has masked the complexity of migration patterns and processes during the transition from studenthood to independent living. Drawing upon a novel survey data set which captures the retrospective migration histories of 963 students who left the University of Southampton between 2001-2007, this paper reveals that post-student migration trajectories are often complex and precarious across the five year period after graduation. The notion of a smooth transition from university to the labour force, followed by upward occupational and social mobility (on the SE escalator) is problematized. Instead, findings are presented indicating that the pathway is often elongated and non-linear, involving multiple residential moves (long and short-distances) which are motivated by a wide variety reasons (i.e. not only labour-motivated). During this prolonged period of instability the parental home (and parental support more generally) provides a crucial ‘safety net’. By foregrounding this aspect of graduate migration the paper seeks to broaden the conventional focus of these literatures by hooking up to scholarship on household formation, transitions to adulthood, intergenerational care, and wellbeing. 10.3 Internal migration of higher education graduates in Belgium Didier Willaert (Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel), Lena Imeraj, Nissa Finney Research has shown that highly educated people are the most mobile in the first years following graduation, reflecting the search for a job in combination with family formation. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent settlement patterns of young graduates are related to the location of their higher education institution. In this paper we study the internal migration of higher education graduates in Belgium. In particular, we investigate the propensity of graduates to move to the city where they studied for higher education and the degree to which cities are able to retain these graduates within the region 4-8 years after graduation. The analyses are based on the 2001 Belgian census, linked with population register data containing information on geographical mobility for the period 2001-2010. This dataset is unique since it includes characteristics of the full population (i.e. not a sample survey). Of all the 19-23 year old graduates who studied for higher education in the metropolitan cities of Brussels, Antwerp, Ghent and Liège in 2001 (but were not domiciled there during their studies), between 15 and 20% had moved to that city and

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still resided there in 2010. Students who lived in student accommodation during their studies (and thus are already more familiar with the city) have a higher likelihood than others of moving to that city after home leaving. In the multivariate analyses, the characteristics of higher education graduates who migrate to the city and stay there for a number of years are further explored and compared to the migration behaviour of other graduates. Explanatory variables include characteristics measured at the individual, household and regional level. 11 Internal Migration: Spatial Patterns (Room A900) Chair: Maria Brandén (Stockholm University) 11.1 Regional pattern of family migration flows in Bhutan Raghubir Chand (Department of Geography, Kumaun University Nainital) The issue of rural-urban migration has gained significant momentum in Bhutan after this Dragon Kingdom has evolved into a new era of democracy in the year 2008. In Particular, the phenomenon of family migration has become alarming as more people drift in to urban areas in search of better living conditions. Responding to the rapidly increasing urban centers in Bhutan, the nature, type, volume and direction of flows of family migrants have also marked significant changes. Prior to 1980, the full family migration was represented an insignificant proportion and the migration was primarily seasonal comprised of individual males from extended rural families who sought employment opportunities to sustain their family income in the villages. For the last few decades, a lot of developmental initiatives are introduced to improve the living standards of Bhutanese population. It is in this context that the present paper addresses the issue of family migration as a major instrument of demographical change in a very remotely located Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan. For a small underdeveloped country like Bhutan, the study of family movement also helps in understanding the dynamics of the society better. Population and Housing Census of Bhutan 2005 also concluded that family move is the most commonly stated reason for rural-urban migrants. This shows that the rural-urban migration for livelihood is a pressing issue in Bhutan. However the census data is based on the information about place of birth and duration of stay at the time of enumeration. The place of birth data makes it possible to classify the population in to migrants and non migrants. However it does not capture the detailed information required to study the dynamics of family migration. To capture such movements, the present paper is based on a primary data set of 55 villages randomly selected from 16 districts (out of 20 districts) of Bhutan. The data set comprised of a total of 1972 families with 17,760 sample population gathered during January 2010. This huge data is a result of author’s field work conducted with the help of undergraduate students of Royal university of Bhutan as his assignment under Colombo Plan of Technical Assistance from India to Bhutan. Various components of migration such as year of migration, destination areas- from rural to rural; and rural to urban, reasons of migration, occupational and educational characteristics, sex composition etc. have

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been studied to analyze the process of family migration. The major emphasis is on the regional distribution pattern of family migration. There are 31.14 percent of total sample households, closed to one quarter of total sample households who have permanently left their villages in general in Bhutan. The maximum 48.67 percent migrant families are recorded in central Bhutan followed by 28.75 percent migrant families in eastern Bhutan and 20.38 percent in western Bhutan out of the total sample households studied in these three regions. The present research is likely to address the ongoing impact of the migration and the associated economy of a marginal Bhutanese society isolated from the main stream of development. The entry of market forces and globalization in the marginal and peripheral village societies of Bhutan can also be very well analyzed with the results obtained through this research. 11.2 Spatial variations of residential mobility patterns in Colombia: an approach using contextual data from census Hernán Villarraga (Department of Geography - Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics, Universtat Autònoma de Barcelona), Albert Sabater, Juan A. Módenes Each year around 5 per cent of the Columbian population changes its place of residence, with an average lifetime mobility which ranges between four and five times. Although the analysis of residential mobility is seen as particularly relevant due to the rapid process of urbanisation, studies exploring patterns of residential migration within municipalities in Colombia are worryingly scarce. In this work, we focus on residential mobility within municipalities in Colombia and seek to advance our knowledge of the role that living conditions and homeownership play. For this purpose, we employ Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) using detailed data from the 2005 Census for all municipalities in Colombia. Our findings demonstrate the spatial non-stationarity of the two explanatory variables under consideration (living conditions and homeownership) and highlight areas with very different residential behaviour across the country. Overall, residential mobility is more sensitive to changes in living conditions than homeownership, although this relationship is shown to vary across space too. Our work is seen as policy relevant while contributing to the existing scholarly literature on residential mobility in Colombia. 11.3 No Country for Young Women: Sex Selective Migration in East Germany Stephan Kühntopf (Federal Institute for Population Research), Susanne Stedtfeld Rural areas in Eastern Germany are affected by an imbalanced sex ratio in the population aged 18 to 29 years, which in European comparison is unique in its scale. Many counties (Kreise) show a sex ratio of 85 or less young women to 100 men, some even have a sex ratio of 75 to 100. This imbalance is a recent phenomenon, which was not observed before 1990. The cause is a particularly strong out-migration of young women. Their higher motivation to leave rural contexts is mainly related to the structure of labour markets and to women’s higher levels of education after completing school as compared to men. The lack of young women has demographic, economic and social consequences.

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Against this background, we analyse the change of age-specific sex ratios and age- and sex-specific migration rates for all Eastern German counties between 1990 and 2010. In addition, we study the areas of origin and destination of migration flows. In the early 1990s, all Eastern German counties – rural areas as well as urban municipalities – were affected by a decreasing ratio of female inhabitants, caused by a stronger out-migration of young women than men to Western Germany. Since the late 1990s, however, the selective migration occurs increasingly within Eastern Germany, especially from rural areas to the cities. As a result, there are large regional differences in the sex ratios of Eastern German counties. Destination areas of emigrants are mostly larger cities that are close to home and rarely the booming but distant regions in South Germany or along the Rhine. The trend of sex selective migration is not receding. Quite contrary, the imbalanced sex ratios start to spread to older age groups. 11.4 Transitions in Gender Ratios among Internal Migrants in Germany, 2000-2010 Nikola Sander (Vienna Institute of Demography (ÖAW)) Internal migration has a strong impact on population growth and age-sex composition at the regional level, especially in the context of very low fertility. In Germany, strong concerns have been raised about population decline in less-densely populated rural areas and increasingly distorted sex ratios in eastern Germany. Both trends have generally been attributed to internal migration, especially a higher propensity of east-west migration among women compared to men. Consequently, long-distance migration from eastern to western German states is seen as the main agent of change in regional population structure, while much less attention has been paid to migration flows between east-German counties. This paper argues that the debate that ignited about internal migration and its consequences for Germany’s rural populations needs to be based on a better understanding of the patterns and trends in internal migration and how these impact on regional population change. Although the federal population register holds annual migration statistics down to the municipality level, frequent boundary changes, especially in eastern Germany over recent decades have impeded the analysis of changes over time in migration flows. This paper overcomes this obstacle by drawing on a new set of harmonised annual inter-county migration flows disaggregated by age and sex between 397 regions with consistent boundaries for the period 200-2010 developed by the author. The paper highlights fundamental changes in the spatial patterns of internal migration in Germany since the year 2000 and puts into perspective the intensity of east-west migration and its impact on regional population growth and age-sex composition. The results are indicative of a trend towards distinct gender selectivity (females>males) of flows from rural east German regions to the cities of Berlin, Leipzig and Dresden, whereas the sex ratio of east-west migration has become much more even over time. 12 The Spatial Heterogeneity of Population Decline I (Room A3)

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Chair: Hans Elshof (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 12.1 Spatial differentiation of population decline in the German region Saarland Josje Hoekveld (University of Amsterdam) We have so far gained insight in the drivers of population decline as we have identified among others general processes like declining fertility rates influencing birth rates or changing economic structures influencing migration flows. Yet, if we zoom into the level of the region, we see that within a declining region, still differences exist in levels of decline between the cities and villages within that region, even though they have been exposed to the same general trends. Why? Apparently those general processes are not sufficient to explain those differences. In this paper the drivers and conditions which are responsible for this intraregional variation are investigated in a declining region which has suffered from large scale economic structural changes, a former mining- and steel region Saarland in Germany. Here, we find great differences in population developments, which thus cannot solely be explained by those structural economic changes. To unravel those drivers and conditions, both a quantitative analysis (assessing demographic and economic changes) and a qualitative (assessing regional and local conditions) of the regional and municipal developments has been carried out. It is found among other things that the existing occurrence of population decline is primarily attributable to natural deficits, yet the variation of decline is primarily attributable to migration. Furthermore, in order to understand the shifts in the distribution of the population, we must investigate not only why which areas are attractive and unattractive at this moment, and thus resulting in current waves of migration, but also those of the past, resulting in specific local population compositions (with its effects upon birth- and death rates). In this paper, those conditions determining the current and past waves of regional population redistribution are identified. 12.2 Assessing the Landscape of Population Decline and Growth in the United States: The Roles of the Demographic Components of Change and Geography Rachel Franklin (Brown University) Population change can be either positive or negative and, around the world, there is sustained interest in the extremes of both cases. In the United States, as in other developed countries, increased attention has recently been devoted to the cases of decline, especially in urban areas and especially by planners. At the same time, many urban centers of the U.S. are in rude health and are clearly seen as the “place to be.” These areas are experiencing levels of growth and demographic health not seen for decades. This research addresses two aspects of the geography of population change in the U.S. It first assesses the spatial aspects of population change: for example, how distance from the city center has been related to population increase or decrease. Second, the role of the demographic components of change – births, deaths, and migration – in population change outcomes is considered. The overarching question that is asked is whether there are generalizations that can be made about the sources

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and geography of population change over the past two decades in the United States. The data used are at the tract and county levels, for the 1990-2010 period. 12.3 North Brabant population dynamics analysis for pursuing regional sustainable development Tong Wang (Eindhoven University of Technology), Qi Han, Bauke de Vries Population dynamics is of much importance for a region because of its close relationship with three domains of sustainability, namely environmental, economic and social sustainability. It is essential to analyze reasons behind population change in order to pursue regional sustainable development. North Brabant is facing decreasing population growth rate since 1990s. This trend would cause population decline in the near future if it continues. The aging and declining population would cause problems for sustainable development. As the North Brabant region has many famous companies and research organizations, researchers, students and highly-skilled migrants from other countries or regions constitute a significant part of the whole population and contribute tremendously to the regional development. As a result, more emphasizes should be put on this issue for analyzing population change in North Brabant, especially under current restrict migration and education budget policies. Besides, population dynamics would exert impacts on several aspects of regional sustainability, which is listed after literature review. This paper presents a system dynamics model with feedback structure and delay time consideration for identifying the casual links between different variables related to population dynamics. These variables are not only driving forces behind population change, but also the important aspects that are listed. The result increases comprehensiveness of understanding of population dynamics in North Brabant and gives clues on predictions for the future trends of the listed aspects under different scenarios. Based on the results, an assessment of population dynamics impacts on regional sustainability is practiced. Several policy suggestions are also given according to the evaluation results. 12.4 Time for change: how population decline contributes to new (spatial) planning styles Marlies Meijer (Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Radboud University Nijmegen) Most policy-makers, politicians and other parties experience population decline as a negative process. For them it has a negative impact on the economy, number of citizens, municipal budgets, standard of facilities (schools, transport, etc.), which all together complicates policy-making in general. In meanwhile a counter-current is becoming visible: some see new possibilities arising from the challenges of population decline. Whereas traditional top-down, growth-oriented, formal planning styles do not seem to fulfill in declining regions anymore (as not cost-efficient, too rigid), other ways of spatial planning are emerging. One of these ways is informality. Informality is characterized by deregulation, informal interaction amongst stakeholders and foremost planning initiatives started and realised by other stakeholders than

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governments: citizens, societal organizations or entrepreneurs. At the moment their contributions to the spatial environment are hardly acknowledged as planning activities in Western Countries. In the Global South however informality is already studied more extensively. This paper explores how informality can be understood a more global context and provides a base for reflection of innovative, informal planning practices in depopulating regions.

Already some depopulating regions are experimenting with informality in (spatial) policy making. They try to outsource planning tasks to citizens and open up existing land use regulations for a more flexible approach. Though enthusiasm among stakeholders is promising, it is too soon to say whether informal ways of coping with population decline are successful. Therefore a wider understanding of informality and its impact must be gained. This paper aims at providing such a understanding. Moreover such an understanding will not only lead to more robust and resilient planning activities in declining regions, but also other regions or cities can benefit from informality as a planning approach. 13 Healthy Ageing: Inequalities at Small-Area Level (Room A901) Chair: Eva Kibele (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 13.1 Developing and validating a prediction rule for type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence at local level, using socioeconomic and demographic data Aletta Dijkstra (Unit of PharmacoEpidemiology & PharmacoEconomics (PE2), University of Groningen), F. Janssen, M. De Bakker, H.J. Bos, R. Lub, L.J.G. Van Wissen, E. Hak Population ageing, population decline and socio-economic profile are known to negatively influence health status and health care use. Knowing about its associations at local level can aid prevention through targeted local health care. For different areas in The Netherlands, we explored spatial patterns of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) drug use at local level and determined its association with local demographic, socio-economic and access to care variables. We developed and validated a prediction rule based on these associations and also assessed spatial variability in these associations. We estimated the five-year prevalence of T2DM drug use (2005-2009) in persons aged 45+ at four-digit postal code level for 4 areas using the University of Groningen pharmacy database IADB.nl. Statistics Netherlands supplied data on potential predictor variables. For our initial area, we estimated a multiple linear regression model and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The resulting prediction rule was validated using data from the other areas. Prevalence of T2DM medicine use ranged from 2.0% to 25.4% in our first research area (Groningen-Veendam). Population ageing and socio-economic profile were positive determinants of local T2DM drug use. The GWR model demonstrated considerable spatial variability in the observed associations.

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In Zwolle-Kampen, Zutphen, and Noordoostpolder prevalence ranged from 1.4% to 34.7%. The prediction rule predicts high prevalence well, but performs differently across the areas. Access to care proved an important additional predictor. Our results demonstrate the necessity of a spatial approach incorporating socio-economic profile, population ageing and access to care variables for explaining and projecting (future) local health care use. 13.2 The prevalence of chronic diseases among elderly in Amsterdam Auke Vlonk (Jan van Es Instituut), Paul Reijn The demand for care in the future will to a large extent be determined by the increase of chronic diseases and ageing. The more care at home and in primary care settings, the higher the quality of life, health and care for patients and the better the social embedding in the neighbourhood with lower costs for society. This requires insight in demographic developments in neighbourhoods in order to coordinate effective and efficient care at all geographical levels. To predict the demand for care in a neighbourhood, data at the lowest possible geographical levels (within the neighbourhood) about age, household composition, ethnicity and (household) incomes are needed. In the Wijkscan (http://wijkscan.com) that demographic data has been joined with data about episodes of all diseases in primary and secondary care, which makes it possible to view the predicted demand for care for all diseases. It is possible to join the Wijkscan data with data of patients collected by general practitioners, leading to the ‘Wijk- en Praktijkscan’. The patient data involve postal code, demographic information and codes of episodes (ICPC-codes) that have been collected in 2012. The Wijk- en Praktijkscan has been implemented at the Foundation of Health Centers of Amsterdam (SAG), an organization with approximately 80 000 patients. The Wijk- en Praktijkscan provides insight in the (differences between) expected and actual demand for care, multimorbidity, the geographical distribution of the patients and differences in the demographic distribution between the population in the neighbourhood and the practice population. Furthermore, it is possible to focus on different target groups and perform further analyses. In this case we will perform analyses on patients of the SAG aged 65-74 and 75+ with (multiple) chronic diseases. The results of those specific analyses will be presentedat the conference. 13.3 Mind the Gap – Health Inequalities across the UK Pia Wohland (Newcastle University), Carol Jagger, Phil Rees Like many other countries, the UK is experiencing a continuous decline in mortality accompanied by population ageing. Additionally, the country has a persistent history of mortality and health inequalities, both geographically and socio-economically. In this research, we examine how these inequalities have changed over time by comparing disability free life expectancy (DFLE) and life expectancy (LE) at local area

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level between 1991 and 2001 at various ages, with a special focus on the very old (85+). To understand trends in mortality and health at a UK subnational level, we explored whether (i) patterns of inequality are the same for LE and DFLE; (ii) patterns of change over time are the same for both variables; and (iii) the same socioeconomic factors explain observed disparities in LE and DFLE across the UK in 1991 and 2001. Overall LE and DFLE increased in most areas between 1991 and 2001. We found that patterns of LE and DFLE at birth persisted over time, specifically the north-west south-east divide, urban to rural, and by level of deprivation. However, whereas the gap between the most urban areas compared to the most rural areas was constant over time, the gap between deprivation classes increased. On the other hand, for the very old place seems less important. LE at age 85 shows no strong geographical divide, living in urban areas does not seem to be a disadvantage, and the deprivation gradient present at other ages was not apparent. Socio-economic factors explaining area variation of DFLE across areas in 1991: social class composition, unemployment rate, population sparsity and ethnic composition, still do so in 2001 and to an even greater extent. Even though the gap between local areas in DFLE and LE has probably widened in both, the generally increasing trend is a positive one. 13.4 An assessment of Vulnerabilities of elderly peoples: A case study of Slums in Delhi, India Vinod Kumar (BRAC DU and Jawaharlal Nehru University) Human is a dynamic facets of society who plays an significant role at the arena of humanitarian background. So the life span of a person can be divide in five phases namely infancy, childhood, adolescence, adulthood and old age groups. It is detected that whole phases of individual person’s life realize special differences with various changes in the age structure. This transform of the people’s age structure vary across the globe. India is a developing country where age structure of the population is changing over a period of time. In forthcoming decades age structure of the old age population is tremendously increasing with the number of elderly and the life expectancy of population. It is well known fact that elderly people are increasing very fast in comparison to younger generation not only at urban place but also in Slums. It is estimated that Population of elder person in Delhi consist 1509685 which is 9.01% of total population of Delhi. Elder women and men in Delhi 793490, 52.56 % and 716195, 47.44% respectively. In view of increasing cost of living and the high cost of health facilities, and changing nature of family structure and the economic dependency is need to cater the issue of ageing in Slums where old age people face various Physical, mental Social, Demographic as well Economic dilemma. It becomes imperative to address the dilemma of elder people at isolated place like slums in Delhi. Because the slum are usually neglected for decentralization of social economic as well as demographic policies and programmes. If improper implementation/ decentralization of any programme and policy in such a central place

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(Delhi) is not fulfilled, how can its fulfillment be ensured in other far flung and remote areas of the country (India). To fulfill this objective we have carried out primary survey at various slums in Delhi and examined the physical social mental as well as demographic vulnerabilities of this marginalized section of the society. 14 Global Population Growth, Environmental Change and Migration I (Room A7) Chair: Frank Swiaczny (Federal Institute for Population Research) 14.1 Population Change and Migration: Questions of Environmental Change, Sustainability and Development Frank Swiaczny (Federal Institute for Population Research) Global population growth is again on the political agenda as the world population hit

the threshold of 7 Billion people in 2011 and is expected to keep growing in the

foreseeable future. Due to still high fertility rates especially in the least developed

countries and resulting high growth rates in some regions a further global population

increase of an additional billion within the next 14 years is most likely. In June 2012 the

RIO+20 conference has confirmed that high population growth and the lack of

implementation in sustainable development is still a major global issue. Increasing

population numbers and densities in many regions across the globe will put additional

pressure on maintaining sustainability. While environmental change - and climate

change in particular - is a global challenge with no easy solution in sight more and

more people will be forced to live under vulnerable conditions. Regions expected to be

most affected by environmental change and increasing vulnerability are among those

who are currently still facing population growth through internal and international

migration and migration of environmental refugees may play an increasing role in

future.

The presentation will set up a conceptual framework for the special session, contribute

key concepts and figures on the issue and introduce the presentations of the session.

14.2 Rethinking environmental displacement: vulnerability and mobility in Italy; the case of Sarno Eleonora Guadagno (Migrinter Université de Poitiers) To enhance the possibility to extend case-studies in environmental migration field, I believe that more work fields are needed in order to quantify the entity of the phenomenon and sensitize the concerned population and authorities about the environmental-mobility nexus. Far to be easy to isolate the independent variable if

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considered in global pattern migration, environmental degradation seems to be a crucial factor when analyzing local process in the aftermath of a single catastrophe. In the aim of this research I decided to base the definition of "environmental displacement", considering a unique catastrophe (a landslides) and as displacement all forms of mobility that have been caused directly by the catastrophe. The case of the town of Sarno, in Southern Italy, can be a useful fieldwork in order to rethink and replace the phenomena of the environmental induced human mobility. 14.3 Risk and Construction Evaluation of Environmental-induced Migration in Sanjiangyuan Area in China Xiangjing Meng (Institute of Population Research, Renmin University of China), Si Gao Environmental-induced Migration Project conducted since 2004 by Qinghai Government which aim to protect the worsening environmental situation in Sanjiangyuan Area. Based on the questionnaire survey data in Kunlun Immigrants Village in the suburb of Golmud City, using Cernea's impoverishment risks and reconstruction (IRR) model, this paper analyzed the risks that the migrants may face in the process of resettlement and reconstruction. The results showed that some risks decreased after the migration (such as homelessness, food insecurity, increased morbidity, loss of access to common property resources and community disarticulation), while some risks are increased (landlessness, joblessness and marginalization). For environmental effect is not time to draw a conclusion yet and need a long term observation. Some policy implications are posed out to improve the process of project planning and policy making. 15 Highly Skilled Migration, Policy and Institutions (Room A900) Chair: Anu Kou (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 15.1 Competing for talent - How do municipal policies in Germany contribute to attracting highly-skilled migrants? Stefanie Föbker (Department of Geography, University of Bonn), Daniela Temme The global competition for highly-skilled professionals and their knowledge has grown over the past decades. Discussions are taking place on all political levels on what can be done in order to attract highly-skilled migrants and to keep them in the long term. The aim of our paper is to analyse policies towards highly-skilled migrants in Germany. Immigration is strongly influenced by decisions on the EU-level and the national level. Therefore, we will first give an overview both of EU-policies and national policies in Germany. However, we will focus on policies on the municipal level. In Germany, municipalities are identified as important actors who should take measures to facilitate the arrival of highly-skilled migrants and to encourage them to stay permanently. Our presentation seeks to answer the following questions:

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What can municipalities in Germany do in the international competition for highly-skilled migrants? How can they shape their own immigration policy? Which measures to attract and welcome highly-skilled migrants do municipalities actually take? The paper is based on two research projects on highly-skilled migrants which we conducted and are still conducting in five case study cities in Germany. We will present results from semi-structured interviews with experts from the cities (working in the area of international relations, integration and economic development) as well as the analysis of official documents of the municipal administrations. Our conclusions emphasize that there is a growing awareness of local policy-makers concerning highly-skilled migrants. We found that the cities are making efforts to create a welcoming culture in order to attract and retain highly-skilled migrants. However, there are differences between these cities regarding their approaches to attract highly-skilled migrants. 15.2 Attracting the best talent in the context of migration policy changes: the case of the UK Anne Green (Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick) Studies on local economic development, medium-term employment projections and skills strategies emphasise the importance of (highly) skilled labour in fostering economic growth. In many countries there is a strategic focus on ‘attracting the best talent’ alongside an emphasis on ‘growing local talent’. Yet in a context of high unemployment the question arises of a possible conflict between attracting the best talent through international migration and encouraging the development and utilisation of local talent. This paper considers this question in the context of UK migration policy changes. Over the long-term, there has been a shift from a liberal regime of unrestricted access to a predominantly demand-led system characterised by increasing restriction (at least for certain categories of migrants). In 2008 a Points-based System (PBS) was introduced to manage inflows to the UK of economic migrants from outside the European Economic Area (EEA). Since its introduction several adjustments to the PBS have been implemented to reflect labour market conditions and broader strategic migration objectives. Here the specific focus is on an annual limit on non-EEA economic migrants introduced in 2011 and tightening of eligibility criteria for entry of (highly) skilled migrants, in the face of concerns from businesses that this might stifle economic growth. The Government’s response has been that businesses should seek to fill vacancies from the resident labour force before looking for skills from outside the UK. Drawing on 20 employer case studies and the broader literature on economic, skills and migration policy, the paper investigates the implications for, and costs to, business in adhering and adapting to migration policy changes. It highlights the rationale for recruitment of (highly) skilled non-EEA migrants and the possibilities for substituting UK/EEA workers. Implications for the attractiveness of the UK to best talent and for the changing location of business activities are considered.

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15.3 Highly Skilled Migration in Taiwan – An Issues Approach Wen-Li Ke (National Immigration Agency of Taiwan), Li-Kung Hsieh In the early 1990s, many foreign workers from Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia traveled to Taiwan under temporary worker schemes. There was an urgent need for these workers, in order to fill vacancies in the blue-collar job sector. However, a two-day conference held by Taiwan’s National Science Council in August 2012 revealed that Taiwan now faces two critical challenges: a loss of talent through emigration, and on the other hand an inability to attract highly skilled immigrants. The potential threat to the development of the nation’s economy and technology as a result of this ‘brain drain’ in the white-collar sector thus provided a focal point for Taiwan’s first striving of immigration policy making. According to governmental statistics for 2011, only 11% of foreign workers were white-collar, and in fact many of these workers had occupations such as language teachers, without any connection to the professional and technical fields. The reality is that more and more people are on the move today, and Taiwan has been hit hard by the global financial crisis. Globalization and changing political environments have increased the demand for highly skilled workers in many countries in order to encourage economic development, and Taiwan is no exception. Therefore, issues such as how to encourage highly skilled migration in order to minimize losses and maximize benefits to Taiwan’s economic development have become important. This paper first presents a brief historical overview of labour migration in Taiwan. Then, we move on to a discussion of contemporary Taiwan’s economic and political circumstances in order to identify the causal effect of migration on national government policies, the country’s working environment, and the living conditions for foreign workers. In addition, since the market for highly skilled labour has become more competitive worldwide, it is hoped that the conclusions in this paper will be of use to the National Immigration Agency in Taiwan, with a view to facilitate future policies. 16 Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labour Markets: Graduate Migration I (Room A2) Chair: Sierdjan Koster (University of Groningen) 16.1 Time to stay or time to go? Explaining international students’ choices to stay in the Netherlands after graduation Pascal Beckers (Institute for Management Research, Radboud University Nijmegen), Metka Hercog, Katrin Marchand Faced with demographic changes and skills shortages governments are introducing various policies aimed at mobilizing the resources of highly-skilled manpower. Attracting foreign students to stay and join the local labour force upon graduation is one such measure. Among others, the Netherlands implemented specific policies for this purpose. To increase their effectiveness, policy makers are keen to gain a more

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thorough understanding of what makes these students want to stay in the country. This is the focus of our paper, which draws a link between on the one hand student experiences in the country and their personal characteristics, and on the other hand their motivations to stay in the country after graduation. Results are based on a web-based survey among Indian and Chinese students at several Dutch universities. Using a logistic regression model, this study finds that working conditions alone cannot foster the retention of international graduates. While the likelihood of staying increases with the length of stay in the Netherlands, also students’ educational background as well as family and other social life considerations figure prominently in students’ considerations to stay or leave. 16.2 Cohort comparison of migration experiences of college graduates in the US Bohyun Joy Jang (Institute for Population Research, The Ohio State University), Anastasia Snyder The migration of college graduates is often considered a geographic shift of human capital (Franklin, 2003; Mixon & Hsing, 1994) because the moves are directly and indirectly related to local socioeconomic dynamics such as rural-urban education gap and brain drain (Hogan, 1978; Kodryzycki, 2001; Cromatie, 1993; Domina, 2006). The perspective, however, disproportionately focuses on economic aspects as the main motivation for migration and fails to consider other causes and consequences of migration events. Furthermore, most prior studies on this topic use cross-sectional data, which does not allow us to examine individual change in migration behavior over time, which requires careful analyses of individual moving experiences over the life course. Using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (the NLSY), the current study examines the timing and destination of migration for American college graduates and possible relationships with other life course events (e.g., family formation and employment). Since moving behaviors are subject to individual choices and socioeconomic conditions of places (Clausen, 1991), we posit that migration experiences vary by birth cohort. Therefore, the moving patterns are compared by cohort in this study, that is, respondents born in 1957-1964 from the NLSY79 and those born in 1980-1984 from the NLSY97. Preliminary findings suggest that college graduates in both the NLSY79 and 97 are more likely than those without a college degree to migrate. When we distinguish the moving types by distance (i.e., a short distance within county move and a long distance between county move), college graduates are more likely to make long distance moves while those without a college degree are more likely to move within the same county. With regard to the timing of moving, college graduates in the NLSY79 move earlier than their counterparts without a college degree but move later than the recent NLSY97 cohort. Additional analyses will include individual, household, and county characteristics in the models, which have been pointed to critical determinants in migration experiences. 16.3 Internal migration, occupational class and regional labour markets in China Tony Fielding (University of Sussex)

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Building on research first presented to the British Association for Chinese Studies’ Annual Conference in 2010, this paper provides evidence to support the contention that internal migration in contemporary China is far more complex, and much more interesting, than it is normally presented to be. After setting the scene by providing an overview of interprovincial migration patterns between 1990 and 2010, the paper reports on (i) the occupational class characteristics of inter-provincial in-migrants in 2000; and (ii) analyses at the sub-provincial level for Heilongjiang and Hunan provinces that reveal the associations in 2000 between the origins of inter-provincial in-migrants and the characteristics of local and regional labour markets. 16.4 Do STEM degree holders obtain STEM jobs? Exploring New Dimensions of Human Capital Agglomeration in the United States. Matt Townley (University of Washington), Mark Ellis, Richard Wright Attracting STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) workers and growing STEM jobs has long been a central feature of national and regional development strategies. This paper explores where STEM jobs are within the US and calibrates how well this distribution matches the geography of those in the labor force who hold STEM degrees. Traditionally, investigations of the geographies of human capital are restricted to mapping spatial variations in the distribution of workers by level of education, such as college degrees. Degree field data allow us to refine these cartographies by examining the type of advanced college-level training workers have received in specific locations. Paired with information on jobs, these enriched human capital data can now bring into view spatial variation in the matching of particular types of college training to job type. The geography of this matching is of particular interest in STEM fields because the industries that generate STEM jobs, such as information technology and life science, are highly agglomerated. Accordingly, we build our investigation around several research questions: Do agglomerations of STEM jobs correspond with where STEM degree holders cluster? Are STEM degree holders more likely to work in STEM jobs in STEM job agglomerations? Are STEM degree holders with a STEM job more or less likely to have migrated than non-STEM degree holders? How does this migration fraction differ between STEM job agglomerations and other places? To what extent do answers to these questions depend on the race and nativity of STEM degree holders? We embed the discussion of our findings within STEM education, workforce, and regional development policy debates. 17 Internal Migration: Determinants and Migrants' Satisfaction (Room A8) Chair: Karen Haandrikman (Department of Human Geography, Stockholm University) 17.1 Migration Determinants at a Local Level Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod (CREUIP-QURE (Universitat Rovira i Virgili)), Daniel Liviano This paper is about determinants of migration at a local level. We use data from Catalan municipalities in order to understand what explains migration patterns of

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population between 2004 and 2010. Our results show the importance of counterurbanization and suggest that migration determinants do not affect all types of municipalities in the same way. 17.2 Socio-economic impact on in-migrating labourers: A case study of Chennai City Thulasi Mala Dhuruvan (Queen Mary's College, University of Madras), Anees Fathima S. M., Sri Rama Laxmi Devi M. The present study analyzes the socio-economic conditions of in-migrant labourer population in Chennai city. The main objectives of the study is to analyze the causes & reasons for in-migration, identify the problems faced by in- migrant labourers in Chennai and to examine the future plan of the migrant. The Area Purposive Sampling Method was used for this study to select migrants for this study. The sample comprised of 300 in-migrants from different locations in Chennai city that were selected for Questionnaire survey. The information base for this study includes both primary and secondary data. Simple Statistical methods in SPSS are used for data analysis and manipulation. Analysis shows that most labourers migrated from Northern India, specifically from Bihar, Orissa, U.P, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Andhra and Karnataka. Among these highest in-migrants are from the state of Bihar 30% and lowest from Chhattisgarh 3%. Socio-economic analysis reveals that about 30% of migrants moved south as they were facing socio-economic problems at their home state. As most of them are under temporary based contract with their employers, they do not have any idea about their future. Nor can they chart a future plan as their job status is not guaranteed. It is derived that large scale interstate in- migration from all over India is currently faced by Chennai city. Particularly 95% of the in-migrant is from North India and not from the home state, TamilNadu. Overall striking point of the study population shows that majority of the in-migrants are Muslims. Study emphasizes on two major characteristics of the in-migrants the entrepreneurial behavior and need to improve the socio-economic status. 17.3 Migration motivations and migrants’ satisfaction in the life course: A sequence analysis of geographical mobility trajectories in the United Kingdom Beata Nowok (University of St Andrews / ESRC Centre for Population Change), Allan M. Findlay An individual’s residence history interrelates closely with other lifetime trajectories such as family, educational and employment careers. These dynamic and interacting processes produce migration patterns that differ between individuals. In this paper we apply sequence analysis methods to investigate existence of distinctive lifetime patterns of migration drivers among individuals changing place of residence within the United Kingdom. Thus, based upon migrants’ reasons for moving we link geographical mobility to various life domains, like job, housing or personal life. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we treat sequences of 18 annual observations as a conceptual unit. We cluster those trajectories using pairwise dissimilarities

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derived applying optimal matching technique. We indentify four distinctive groups of migrants and compare their satisfaction with life overall and with selected life domains. Since young adults are most mobile and can have very fluid residence histories we perform a separate analysis of them. 17.4 Post-move satisfaction, internal migration and the urban hierarchy Michael Sloan (Victoria University of Wellington), Phillip S. Morrison Migration theory argues that people move in order to improve their circumstances. Doubt has been cast on the net return in real terms to upward moves and there is lack of clarity over the net benefits to both upward and downward moves in life satisfaction terms. Both the counter-urbanisation literature and the related discourse on ‘downshifting’ argues that a growing proportion of moves out of large urban labour markets to smaller towns and villages are undertaken in order to improve overall levels of well-being and there is a growing consensus that upward moves to larger centres actually lowers the migrant’s level of wellbeing. In this paper we use the Survey of Dynamics of Motivation and Migration to explore how satisfied migrants were with ‘the way things turned out’ following their change of address both within and between local labour markets of New Zealand. After controlling for the demographic and human capital attributes of a sample of nearly 5000 movers, along with characteristics of the move itself, we test whether post-move satisfaction rises or falls with moves up and down the urban hierarchy. While the global measure of change, ‘post-move satisfaction’, shows little consistent change with moves up and down their urban hierarchy this is not true of returns to individual domains. We find that moves up and down the hierarchy are associated with a re-weighting of life satisfaction across the domains; returns to outdoor living for example may compensate for weaker employment opportunities when moving down, and access to big city amenities may help compensate for the higher entry cost of housing when moving up – even if aggregate measures of satisfaction remain relatively unchanged. Documentation of this re-weighting associated with internal migration may be more useful than any focus on net global return either economically or in life satisfaction terms. 18 Mobility Across the Life Course (Room A3) Chair: Maarten van Ham (Delft University of Technology) 18.1 The geographic mobility over the life course in some European countries. Using ShareLife data to compare changes of residence over the last decades Frank Heins (Institute for Research on Population and Social Policies – National Research Council), Corrado Bonifazi Within the framework of the SHARE project (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe - 50 + in Europe) biographical data of persons 50 years and older living in 16 European countries were collected in 2008-09. SHARELIFE collected information on

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childhood, health, economic situation and employment, family events - such family formation and birth of a child - and on housing. The contribution examines the potential of this data source and ways to analyse the statistical information. Results of the analysis of the changes of residence over the life course are presented. The changes of residence refer to all accommodations, where the participants in the study have lived permanently regardless of the criteria of official statistics. The international comparison of the processes of geographic mobility takes into account the cohorts, the calendar years and the demographic information regarding the individuals. The analysis of the factors associated with geographic mobility is extended to the socio-demographic situation of the individuals and the major events over the life course (the formation and dissolution of the couple, the birth of a child, the job history). The event living together or marriage is the one associated more closely with a change of residence, followed by the birth of a child. In the conclusions the potential of the results of the analysis of the individual data to explain international differences in the intensity of geographic mobility and in the factors shaping geographic mobility will be discussed. 18.2 Aging, Environment and Migration Melanie Kappler (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)) This talk focuses the retirement migration of the German post-war cohort under an environmental perspective on aging, which was developed by the environmental gerontology (e.g. Wahl, Oswald 2010). With the background of the Social Capital Theory and a life course perspective on migration, it investigates how social network and migration history helps to accumulate social capital, which, because of its strong ties to place and its mostly nontransferable character, leads to concepts like ‘place attachment’ (e.g. Hildalgo, Hernández 2001), ‘home’ (e.g. Ralph, Staeheli 2011; Rowles, Chaudhury 2005) and ‘location-specific insider advantages’ (Fischer et al. 2000) etc. We investigate how these ties to place, especially the social network and the migration history, influence individual migration decisions of the German post-war cohort for retirement under a theoretical focus of social capital and migration costs for the individual. 18.3 Residential mobility over the life course: continuity and change Juliet Stone (ESRC Centre for Population Change), Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham, Jo Sage, Athina Vlachantoni Residential moves can be motivated by a range of factors relating to different dimensions and stages of one’s life course. Moves can be a tied to ostensibly positive life events (eg. marriage, parenthood, social mobility) or negative circumstances (eg. union dissolution, unemployment, poor health). However, life events such as mobility and fertility are unlikely to coincide exactly and there is likely to be a ‘window of synchronicity’ during which these events occur (Clark and Withers 2009). Moreover, patterns of residential mobility over the life course are likely to be influenced by age, period and cohort effects.

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We explore these issues using data from Wave 3 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, an ongoing study of men and women aged 50 years and older living in private residences in England. We analyse data from ~7,000 respondents who completed retrospective life history interviews, providing information on family, work and residences throughout their lives. We plot trajectories of residential mobility over the life course for different cohorts and examine the extent to which moves coincide with ‘triggers’ in the life course, such as fertility and labour market changes. Preliminary results indicate that there is relatively little change over time in the overall patterns of residential mobility over the life course. However, the oldest cohort of women made fewer residential moves over the life course than their younger peers. We discuss cohort changes in patterns of residential mobility in the context of the socio-historical environment in which respondents were living. Key changes include raising of the school leaving age, fluctuations in the housing market, periods of economic recession, and policy changes in the welfare system and labour market. We further discuss the implications of life-course residential mobility for policy, for example in relation to the accumulation of resources throughout the life course that can be drawn upon in later life. 18.4 Adjustment of Intergenerational Proximity As Consequence of Health Problems of Older Persons in the Netherlands Marieke van der Pers (Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Science, University of Groningen), Clara H. Mulder, Eva Kibele At older ages health problems may require an adjustment of residential needs which may result in a residential relocation. At the same time, when health problems reduce the possibility of independent living, the supporting role of adult children becomes more salient. Therefore, older persons may change their residence in order to live geographically closer to family members in order to improve the possibility for personal contact and the exchange of support. These insights suggest that there will be more need for older persons to change residence when children live at greater distance, particularly when they face a (sudden) increase in assistance needs, for instance when health declines or when a partner is lost. This paper aims to get insight into the extent older parents move in the direction of their children in relation to their need for assistance. Besides health, factors like the presence of a partner and current proximity to children are considered as well. Furthermore, while investigating the extent older parents move in the direction of children, we distinguish between residential relocations into a formal care institution or elsewhere. We enrich POLS survey data of the years 2004-2008 with register data and construct migration histories of persons aged 65+ (N=8,500) which are analyzed with event history models in order to estimate the propensity to move into the direction of children while considering physical and mental health condition at one particular moment, the recent experience of a health shock (N=1,100), and of course, whether or not they already have children living close by.

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19 Stayers: More Than Just Those Who Don't Leave (Room A12) Chair: Niels Kooiman (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS)) 19.1 Are stayers a neglected research topic? Discussing the importance of young adult stayers in rural population studies Tialda Haartsen (Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen) Research into population flows to and from (depopulating) rural areas has thus far mainly focused on youth outmigration, the in-migration of newcomers and on the ageing population that remains in the rural. In order to maintain and develop sustainable and secure societies in rural areas with (projected) population decline, the group of young adults (aged18-35 years) is very important. After decades of research into the mobilities of people, population geographers increasingly acknowledge the importance of immobily for regional development. However, it is unclear if the immobiles actively decide to stay, or whether this ‘just happens’. Nor do we know if they have enough social capital to contribute to rural society, and if they have equal freedom of choice in making decisions that influence their future and the future of their residential area and region. 19.2 Rural stayers and leavers – outcomes for youth E. Dianne Looker (Mount Saint Vincent University) This paper explores the factors that affect the decision of rural youth to stay in or leave rural areas, as well as the impact of these decisions on their outcomes five and eleven years later. These outcomes are compared to other outcomes (educational, occupational, and life satisfaction measures) for (a) rural youth who migrate to urban areas, (b) urban youth who stay in urban centres, and (c) the minority of urban youth who move to rural communities. Further, the paper problematize what constitutes 'success'. It is often assumed that those without some post-secondary education are 'failures’, that high incomes are necessarily better, that full-time work is everyone's goal. While these outcomes are defined by many as ideal, there is a diversity of outcomes that some (albeit a minority) of youth see as viable and attractive. Most youth graduate from high school, but some don't; while most seek high status, high income jobs, some have other priorities. Not all youth see marriage and parenthood as the only option for happiness. This variation is very evident when one considers rural youth; while many accept the assumption that one must leave to 'succeed', others have close ties to their community and see staying as not only feasible but desirable. Examination of not just outcomes, but of youth satisfaction with their pathways, allows for diverse definitions of 'success'. The data set is researcher generated, with longitudinal surveys of youth from rural and urban areas in Canada, from the age of seventeen, to twenty-three and then twenty-eight (N=1209, 842 and 736 at the three data collections). Detailed quantitative analyses will be coupled with quotes from in-depth interviews when the youth were 17

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and 28. Results show that the decision to stay in rural areas is not necessarily linked to “failure”, nor geographic mobility to “success”. 19.3 Places to stay, to leave or to come to? Small towns in shrinking German regions Annett Steinführer (Institute of Rural Studies, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute) Small towns are historical centres of rural areas. They underwent several processes and moments of steep population decline and growth not only in the 20th century. Under the conditions of current regional population decline in Germany there are ambiguous findings concerning their development: On the one hand, small towns are affected by negative migration and natural balances, too (Steinführer et al. 2012). On the other, they are target locations of intra-regional amenity-led migration, particularly by older and oldest-old generations from surrounding villages (Rößler, Kunz 2010). While affected by overall decline, their elderly population is thus growing in relative and absolute terms. Population decline and ageing lead to changing and partly contradicting demands for local services and infrastructures. More generally, decision-makers and the population need to re-define their understanding of local quality of life and future potentials of their small town: Should the infrastructure fully be adapted to population decline? Is there still a need of kindergartens? Is it desirable to shape an image of an ageing town? The consequences again will influence individual location decisions whether to stay in the small town or to leave it. The paper wants to shed more light on these issues by (a) outlining general small-town population development in shrinking German regions and (b) by using quantitative and qualitative data from an in-depth research in the Harz Mountains collected between 2010 and 2012. One conclusion of these analyses will be that small towns can, under certain conditions, strengthen their position in regions characterised by population decline at the expense of rural settlements whose population decline is even reinforced. 20 Setting the Agenda for Population Decline: Theory and Policies (Room Heymanszaal) Chair: Leo van Wissen (NIDI and University of Groningen) 20.1 Adaptation to demographic change: a key challenge to population geography/ers in Central Europe? Martin Šimon (Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic) The paper present a key lesson learned from applied research project focused on adaptation to demographic change. In the first part a broad picture of changes in population geography of central Europe area is provided. Secondly, a local impact of population shrinkage is illustrated by examples from case study regions. Thirdly, a marked inconsistency between pace and extent of population shrinkage in regions and its perception by local stakeholders is discussed. In conclusion, the paper argues for

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wider adoption of `down-to-earth geography`, which is directly relevant for decision makers. A contradictory effect of investment focused policies and cost savings oriented policies are discussed on the example of population shrinkage. 20.2 Regional population decline in Europe: best practices and policy responses Roos Galjaard (Bureau PAU), Marieke Harkink Universal processes related to the structural low fertility on the one hand, and economic geographic processes of concentration and urbanization on the other lead to regional population decline in most European countries. Due to this universal nature of the underlying processes policies aimed at dealing with them share substantial similarities. At the same time, the regional context is very important as well. The paper aims to give more insight into and reflections on best practices and policies dealing with population decline in Europe. Special attention will be given to three European regions: Northeast Scotland, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, and Brandenburg to show the different regional and national contexts and the different policy responses between the regions. within these regions. Each of the regions dealt with strong internal differences in growth and decline and experienced structural change triggered by external developments. The role of national policies has been substantial. Moreover, policies have primarily affected liveability in the regions, but not population decline as such. International cooperation can be the start of mutual European adjustment in policy answers to demographic change. In addition the paper will reflect on policy responses to demographic change by using the analysis of projects implemented and developed in the Interreg IVC programme focusing on demographic change . The report and a publication of this study is due on the 22nd of June 2013. The main focus will be on the analysis of policy responses and best practices on demographic change, ranging from innovation in elderly healthcare, independent or assisted living to market development for regional SMEs and lifelong learning and labour market. The analysis will result in policy recommendations for the national and the EU level. The paper written for the international conference of population geographies will focus on the results of both studies. 20.3 Literature review on population decline Nina Conkova (NIDI), Leo van Wissen, Harry van Dalen In 2012 population decline was ranked as the least important demographic topic for the next 20 years. Demographers from all over the world saw population ageing as the most important population issue, followed by large-scale migration flows. The low ranking of population decline may seem rather surprising, especially since we are approaching an era of a long-lasting population decline. UN population projections suggest that around mid-21

st century most of Europe – where negative population

momentum has already set in - will start to experience population decline. Even more, in the developed world, Japan, Russia and most of the Central and Eastern European

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countries are already experiencing population decline, caused by low birth rates, high death rates and negative net migration, and their combination. Building upon an extensive literature review, this article aims to answer the question “why is population decline of a little interest for demographers?” We present four alternative but not mutually exclusive arguments, which deal with (i) the past, present and future of population change; (ii) the economic consequences of population decline and ageing; (iii) the distinction between ‘population decline’ at the global level and regional ‘depopulation’; and finally (iv) the political sensitivity of population growth and decline. 21 The Spatial Heterogeneity of Population Decline II (Room A900) Chair: Josje Hoekveld (University of Amsterdam) 21.1 Shrinking and staying behind? Socio-demographic and socio-economic divergence between Dutch regions Niels Kooiman (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS)), Marco Bontje, Jan Latten According to the latest forecasts of Statistics Netherlands, in the coming decades the Dutch population will continue to grow. However national growth is increasingly unevenly distributed across the country. With natural growth being below replacement level, regional selective settlement of immigrants and patterns of inter-regional migration articulate existing differences between growing urban regions in the central part of the country and shrinking regions mainly in the peripheral zones. In this article, we describe the already existing contrasts between regions with a positive influx and those with negative figures. We not only analyse the distribution of inter-regional and international migration across Dutch regions, but also its correlation with socio-demographic and socio-economic differences of the regional populations. First results for the period 2005 till 2011 show that the highly selective nature of migration flows contribute to divergence between Dutch regions in population composition in terms of ages, gender and socio-economic characteristics like income, employment and the share of benefit recipients. Furthermore, comparing the 2005-2008 period with 2008-2011we try to reveal to what extent a period of economic growth or economic downturn makes a difference for increasing regional socioeconomic divergence. 21.2 Population decline and community development in the Great Plains Laszlo Kulcsar (Kansas State University) The Great Plains has long been considered the breadbasket of the United States. However, since farm consolidation and mechanization started in the 1960s and rendered agriculture less labor intensive, the region has been struggling with persistent outmigration, and the subsequent aging in place and population decline. The Baby Boom generation has helped to maintain a relatively large active age population in farming communities, but as the boomers approach retirement age, the

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long term sustainability of these communities are at stake. Dependence on farming led to a non-diverse local labor market, which in turn induced further outmigration, revenue decline and service consolidation triggering a vicious cycle of community decline. This study focuses on demographic trends and community development in the Great Plains, using Kansas as a specific example. The methodology includes (1) the analysis of long term population dynamics; (2) survey data on community development, place attachment and migration intentions among farm operators; and (3) a case study of a hyper-extractive agricultural community in Western Kansas. The scholarly emphasis is on the interplay between local labor market opportunities and subjective perceptions about community sustainability as important drivers of migration decision making. Long term implications for social and economic development are also discussed. This study is an output from an interdisciplinary project supported by the National Science Foundation. 21.3 Population Decline in the Republic of Belarus: Spatial Regularities and Ways of Problem Solution Ekaterina Antipova (Belarusian State University), Liudmila Fakeyeva The Republic of Belarus is characterized by population decline mainly in rural areas. This process was influenced by various factors in different historical periods: 1) the socio-economic factor (intensive industrialization and the mass outflow of rural population to urban areas) was the dominated until 1986; 2) environmental factor became effective after the Chernobyl accident in 1986; 3) demographic factor became dominant in 1990 natural population decline of population, increase of the mortality level of workforce population (predominantly males), ageing. There are deep space polarization and territorial regularities of rural depopulation in Belarus caused by various factors. Three zones were allocated: 1) high level depopulation zone is located in the Northern region (with a predominance of natural geographical and demographical factors, small villages by population size and regressive age structure) and the Eastern region (with a predominance of economical and geographical, socio-economic periphery factors in addition to demographic factor); 2) medium level depopulation zone – in the Central and Southern regions (with a predominance of socio-economic center factor, medium village); 3) low level depopulation zone is typical for the Southern region (with a predominance of historical and cultural, natural and economical factors, large villages and younger age) and areas around regional centers. Legal framework in the area of demographic politic was created in the Republic of Belarus in the 2000s due to the population declining problem. Nowadays three main state documents are worked out and realized actively The Program of Social-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for the period 2011-2015, The National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus for the period to 2020 and National Program of Demographic Security of the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015.

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21.4 Challenges of demographic change for shrinking regions in the Netherlands Andries de Jong (PBL) Population, households and the labour force have grown in the Netherlands over the last decades, but in the future this growth may come to an end. At the regional level several NUTS II regions are already facing a population decline and a shrinking potential labour force. According to the PBL/CBS regional forecast and the ESPON project DEMIFER especially the (potential) labour force will decline. This will cause an increase in pressure on the working population to provide financial support for those without work. Especially the shrinking regions will face an intensified greying of the population, which is associated with an increase in the demand for healthcare services. However, a shrinking labour force may lead to a tight labour market and shortages of persons working in the healthcare sector. This may ask for national and regional policy strategies towards demographic decline and changes in the labour market. 22 Global Population Growth, Environmental Change and Migration II (Room A7) Chair: Frank Swiaczny (Federal Institute for Population Research) 22.1 Rainfall Variations and Socio-spatial Mutations around the Waza National Park in the Far North Region (Sahel Region) of Cameroon Johnson Takwa Teke (Central Bureau Censuses and Population Studies) The climate of Waza-Logone in the Far North Region of Cameroon like that of other parts of the Sahel is characterised by two distinct reasons. There is a long dry season that lasts for between seven and eight months and a short rainy that lasts for between four to five months.Water sent into the atmosphere through the process of evapotranspiration is above 100mm. Relative humidity is low but increases gradually from the month of April to reach a maximum in August.The volume of rainfall varies from year to year.The years 1970-1980 were generally characterised by significant deficits in rainfall but there has been some improvements since the 1990s.The duration of rainfall per year in this zone varies from 84 to 179 days. To cope with these varying climatic conditions that affect agropastoral activities that are practised in the area, the population has progressively abandoned the cultivation of crops that require a long rainy season such as coton in favour of crops that need short rainy raining periods. Marshy areas or flood plains are increasingly been used to cultivate sorghum and okoro. Others have completely abandoned agriculture and have taken up artisan activities while some have completely migrated away from this area to large urban areas of the more humid south of Cameroon such as Douala and Yaoundé. Some Arab Chaos and Peul animal rearers are forced to practised nomadism and transhumance. 22.2 The Impacts of Extreme Flood Events on Vulnerable Livelihoods of Nadi Area in Fiji Islands Ravindra Rattan (Department of Geography, University of Porto, and University of the South Pacific)

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Climate change is a phenomenon which has shaped and will continuing shaping the physiographic and human lives simultaneously. One of the major factors of climate change is extreme floods events which bring major environmental problems affecting the most of the low lying Pacific Island Countries (PIC’s). The challenges in the PIC’s are multitudinous because of its smallness, remoteness and vulnerability. The effects of climate change are now being experienced severely in the very low lying countries in the Pacific Ocean. Not only the low lying island countries coastal land and vegetation are nigh to disappearing but the island livelihood is becoming vulnerable as well. Nadi is a second largest town in Fiji Islands and it has marked some of drastic floods in the last half decade. Its direct impacts are on people’s life, food and water and livelihood security. Located in the western division, in the sugar cane belt, Nadi and its environs have a population of about 70,000 people, most of them sugar cane farmers, workers in the garment and tourism industries and employees in the service industry. This ongoing paper concentrates on how extreme flood events of year 2009 and the centurial floods of 2012 have affected the people’s livelihood which even led the most vulnerable households to migrate and live in squatters. Conversely, Pacific Ocean has vast low elevation with an open area; therefore, with high precipitation, erosion and sea level rise, the regions land area changes continually. Albeit its smallness, Nadi spans through a vast elevation, number of rivers and ecological consequences which has a totally different reflection when hit by an extreme flood event. Hence, this paper discusses how the five household’s sustainable livelihood capitals: Human, Physical. Natural, Social and Financial are shaped after an extreme flood events. 22.3 The Legitimacy of Migration as a Policy Measure in Cases of Resource Scarcity Barbara E. Müller (Department of Political Science, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz) When climate change and population growth cause scarcity of resources, individuals’ basic needs are threatened. If the concerned states are unable to protect the basic needs of their inhabitants, political action by the international community is required in order to solve the problem and provide adequate protection of the individuals at risk. Excluding the option of non-interference, there are two alternatives to address the problem. Living conditions in the affected areas can be improved by relocating resources (redistribution of resources) or people can be relocated – or enabled to relocate – to areas where they find better living conditions (facilitation of migration). The redistribution of resources in the sense of on-site help is the more common strategy in policies of development aid. However, it often reaches its limits when it comes to the consequences of climate change and rapid population growth. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the comparatively neglected solution, namely facilitating migration. The presentation aims at shedding light on the legitimacy of migration as a political measure to address the scarcity of resources. Conceptional clarity will be produced by systematically analysing the case of migration from a normative theoretical point of

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view. Drawing on various political theories, the expected utility and the costs for relevant actors will examined and compared. The presentation will also investigate if migration can be adequately combined with the redistribution of resources to affected areas. 23 Health Geography (Room A12) Chair: Auke Vlonk (Jan van Es Instituut) 23.1 Potential Burden of Cohort Exposure (PBCE). Implications for the analysis and interpretation of (healthy) aging Antonio D. Cámara (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona), Pilar Zueras, Sergi Trias As life expectancy expands, healthy aging gains importance for both the sustainability of basic public provisions and the way that the coexistence between different generations takes place within a society. It is known that a number of aspects of active (thus healthy) aging are affected by the gradual deterioration of functional abilities to perform daily life activities. Aside of this, the health background at senescence either today or in the future results troubling. In this regard, health trends and variations in the severity degrees of impairments and chronic conditions that have been observed cross-nationally are mixed and often quite puzzling. In light of empirical evidence from an ongoing research focused on Spain we hypothesize that the health background of aging displayed by cross-sectional studies might partly be a result from the environmental background of the current cohorts of elderly that are surveyed by the sanitary system. While a number of studies have studied and demonstrated the influence of early-life conditions on late-life health, these influences have not been systematically examined at a population level thus creating potential biases upon the comparison of the health status across populations even if those comparisons are age-specific. In this work we aim to explore the relationships between the trends in basic components of healthy aging (i.e. the performance of ADL, IADL and outside mobility) and the changes in the share of the cohorts that form the subpopulation aged 65+ across successive waves of the Spanish Health Interview Survey (ENSE). We analyze these changes in function of the living conditions experienced by different cohorts over their life cycles. To do this, we propose a straightforward indicator, namely the Potential Burden of Cohort Exposure (PBCE) which is analyzed for each of the waves of the ENSE that serves to construct the trends in health among the elderly. This contextual analysis seems to us relevant in order to understand and interpret current and future health outputs characterizing the aging process among different generations and diverse populations. In light of the results we will discuss the implications that different patterns of socioeconomic development and shifts in living conditions across societies may have for the comparison of the health status of the current and future generations of elderly.

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23.2 Spatial Variation in Infant Mortality at an Early Stage of the Longevity Revolution: A Pan-European View in 1910 Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Peter Ekamper, Ian Gregory, Siegfried Gruber, Jordi Marti-Henneberg, Fransvan Poppel, Luis Silveira, Arne Solli This paper reports on the first outcomes of a bigger project aiming to analyse infant survival improvements over time at high spatial detail. In the early phase of the longevity revolution life expectancy increases were to a large degree stemming from infant mortality reductions. Research with national-level data has substantially improved our understanding of the period and gender dimensions of this process. However, little comparative research has focused on its spatial dimension by analysing detailed regional and local data. Our project aims to fill this gap for Europe. We apply mapping and spatial modelling techniques, allowing us to control for the political geography and socio-economic characteristics such as population and railroad density. In addition, we explore whether we find support for the assumption that the longevity revolution was a diffusion of best practices process (see e.g. Oeppen and Vaupel, 2002). For this we look into the existence of spatial dependency patterns around potential centres and pathways of diffusion processes. In a first step we gathered official infant mortality statistics for the period around 1910. The European GIS-File is derived by combining detailed historical national GIS-datasets. In total, we are able to analyse data for more than 5,000 European regions and municipalities. First findings show that already in 1910 most countries exhibited relative little regional variation in infant mortality, while there was substantial variation across countries. Our model results suggest that in 1910 no European region had been able to overcome the urban penalty challenge as infant mortality was still higher in densely populated urban areas compared to rural areas. There seem to be indications for spatial dependency pattern, as e.g. infant mortality seems to raise the higher the distance to the capital city. As a next step we will extent the analysis by adding another cross-section in 1930. 23.3 Population Ageing and Healthy Life Expectancy in Thailand Rukchanok Karcharnubarn (College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University), Philip Rees (School of Geography, University of Leeds), Myles Gould Thailand’s rapid demographic transition has resulted in population ageing, which will accelerate in future with important implications for the health of the population. We estimate how much life is spent in good health and poor, using estimates of healthy life expectancy in Thailand, based on data from national Surveys of the Elderly in 2002 and 2007 and calculated using prevalence rates (Sullivan’s method). Healthy life expectancy based on self-reported health increased for older men and women and at all virtually all older ages. The change was larger and significant for women but small and insignificant for men. As a proportion of total life expectancy, self-reported life expectancy decreased. Mobility disability free life expectancy increased significantly

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for older men and women at all older ages and increased as a proportion of total life expectancy. Self-care disability free life expectancy at older ages increased for both men and women but the increases were greater for women than men. Self-care disability free life expectancy decreased as a proportion of total remaining expected life. So, depending on sex and older age group, we observed both morbidity compression (mobility disability) and morbidity expansion (self-reported poor health and self-care disability). The increases in life spent needing self-care will probably have the most impact on the demands for health and personal care in the future, because this is the disability that is most costly to alleviate and where there is the lowest probability of recovery. We compare Thailand’s experience of improving life expectancy and healthy life expectancy with other countries, taking advantage of a recent global study. 24 Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labor Markets: Regional Labor Markets II (Room A2) Chair: Inge Noback (University of Groningen) 24.1 Migration, Labor Queues, and Wage Inequality Jamie Goodwin-White (University of California, Los Angeles) Are relative returns to skills different between metropolitan areas? How are similar groups of workers (in terms of demographic and labor market characteristics) faring across metropolitan areas with different wage distributions? Do those who would fare relatively better by moving do so? How are patterns of internal migration and destination choice related to changing wage distributions? In this paper, I use conditional wage distributions to predict where wage returns to skills land similar workers in relative wages distributions across 20 major metropolitan areas. I also introduce questions of how the geographic variance in returns to skill has emerged alongside major shifts in the US economy, and consider the significance of understanding these processes for predicting patterns of internal migration and recession. 24.2 Knowledge-intensive employment growth in the Dutch Randstad and the German Rhine-Ruhr area: the impact of centrality and peripherality Kristin Kronenberg (Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development (ILS)), Kati Volgmann This study investigates to what extent the different subsectors of the knowledge economy are subject to sector-specific spatial patterns of employment dynamics, and whether these patterns are conditional upon the general economic conditions in a particular region. To this end, we analyze and compare patterns of employment growth in the knowledge economy and its subsectors in the different settlement zones of the (growing) Dutch Randstad and the (declining) German Rhine-Ruhr area, and investigate the impact of centrality respectively peripherality within a polycentric

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metropolitan region on knowledge-intensive municipal employment growth. Our results show that with respect to knowledge-intensive employment, both the Randstad and the Rhine-Ruhr area exhibit sector-specific spatial patterns of employment dynamics. Furthermore, centrality and peripherality are found to play important roles in determining municipal knowledge-intensive employment growth, suggesting that the location of a municipality within a larger urban system affects its employment dynamics, and this impact differs both between sectors, and between regions being subject to either growth or decline. 24.3 Please, stand on the right; are Dutch recent graduates stepping off the escalator faster? Viktor Venhorst (University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences), Jouke van Dijk Attracting and retaining the higher educated, both fresh out of university as well as at advanced stages of their careers, is a key focus of local policymakers. A recent study on university-to-work migration for the Netherlands has demonstrated that, during the first years after a given cohort’s graduation, Dutch college and university towns are capable of retaining significant proportions of the graduates that have completed a degree program at the local higher education institution. Furthermore, especially those cities that are located in the central parts of the country attract graduates to their labour markets that have completed a program elsewhere. However, this positive short-term net-retention does not imply success on the longer term. Whereas on the short term after graduation, many alumni appear to be focused on the (labour market) opportunities that are available in cities, on the medium to longer term other factors, such as family formation processes, start to play a role. This in turn leads to further migration to better align the demands on the residential location that stem from the various domains in the life course. Larger cities, such as Amsterdam, have noted what appears to be a growing number of highly skilled households leaving the city to live in nearby smaller scale communities. At the same time, a recent study for the Netherlands suggested that working couples are evaluating the city climate more favourably. In this paper, we use data from the Dutch population registry and the Dutch Higher Education register to study the migration patterns of a number of cohorts of higher education graduates. Tracking these individuals up to 10 years after leaving their higher education institution, we aim to shed light on the tempo and quantum of migration into, and out of, the larger cities in the Netherlands. We relate these migration flows to the performance of migrants and stayers on the (local) labour market, the presence of a partner and their socio-economic characteristics, and the presence of children in the household. Are younger cohorts indeed moving out of larger cities in greater numbers? Or are they post- or even speeding up the move out of the larger cities, compared to their forbearers? Or, thirdly, have Dutch larger cities become less successful over time in attracting recent graduates to begin with? Using this cohort approach, we attempt to identify and disentangle the changes in these different migration patterns. In doing so, we aim to contribute to the understanding of the evolving escalator function that cities have in the Dutch economic system.

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25 Internal Migration: Time Trends and Spatial Patterns (Room A7) Chair: Nissa Finney (University of Manchester) 25.1 Inter-regional migration in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, 1995-2010: Differences and similarities across space and time Ramon Bauer (Vienna Institute of Demography (ÖAW)), Nikola Sander Over the past decade, rural population decline and the prospect of population ageing have sparked a growing interest in the impact of internal migration on the size and age-sex structure of populations at the regional level. Despite increasing concerns among politicians and planners about consequences for economic prosperity and the provision of services in many rural regions, scientific enquiry into the patterns, causes and consequences of internal migration flows has been limited - in terms of the lack of geographic detail, the focus on net gains and losses, and the short time period covered. This paper compares the patterns of internal migration in the German-speaking countries Austria, Germany, and Switzerland, and aims to answer the question of whether there are common migration patterns in these countries. We address this question by first sketching a theoretical framework for comparing internal migration across German-speaking countries. The framework takes into account a range of commonalities in cultural, societal and demographic structures as well as the sources of migration data. In the second part of the paper, we draw on a new dataset developed by the authors that holds annual interregional migration counts for temporally consistent boundaries drawn from the population registers of Austria, Switzerland and Germany, covering the period 1995-2010. Our analysis uses customised regions developed based on existing classifications of municipalities into five groups (larger cities and their hinterlands, other cities and their hinterlands, and rural regions). The results highlight similarities and differences between internal migration trends in the three countries. For example, in all countries larger cities experience increasing net migration gains, due to continuing in-migration of young adults in search for education and employment, and the cessation of family out-migration to the cities’ hinterlands. Differences relate, for example, to the capital cities play in the national migration system. 25.2 Spatial Mobility Trends in Sweden: An Order-Specific Analysis of Migration Hill Kulu (University of Liverpool), Gunnar Malmberg, Emma Lundholm The aim of this study is to investigate spatial mobility in Sweden over time and changes in mobility patterns by population subgroups. Most studies on internal migration focus on spatial redistribution of population and determinants of inter-regional migration flows; surprisingly little research has investigated the dynamics of spatial mobility in industrialised societies over time. The study of the dynamics of spatial mobility will deepen our understanding of how lives of individuals change over time and how changes in various domains of individuals’ lives interact with their spatial mobility. We

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expect our research to trigger a series of studies on other countries using the same methodology. We propose the methodology as follows: We will first calculate age controlled migration measures to investigate spatial mobility of Swedish population over the last four decades (from 1968 to 2009). We will then disaggregate mobility rates by calculating order-specific mobility rates (e.g. the age-specific mobility rate for ages 18-29 is the sum of the first, second and subsequent mobility rates). We will next standardise orderspecific mobility rates for place of residence and for changes in other life domains of individuals (education, work, family) to find out how much changes in various life domains of individuals or couples explain the change in mobility levels over time. We will examine mobility rates over time by using different definitions of spatial mobility and migration. We will use register data to study spatial mobility of individuals aged 18 to 29; the data include information on the main life events of the research population including residential changes. 25.3 Do the Elderly Move to Less Dense Areas? Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Migration in Korea Jun Hyung Kim (Daegu University), Jung Hoon Han The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of differences in urban density on the mobility patterns of older people using a multiple regression and time-series analysis. An origin and destination matrix is used to analyse spatial and temporal patterns of older people based on a large census based administrative dataset from Korea. Two propositions of ageing in place and retirement migration are analysed using a multiple regression model. The statistical results find that older people living in urban areas moved to higher density areas, similar to younger age groups, and this pattern is consistent for the elderly already living in higher dense areas. Controlled the impact of distance on migration the movements for the old people aged 75 years and over to higher dense areas were statistically significant between 2001 and 2010. 25.4 Patterns of Urban/Rural Migration in Israel, 2003-2008 Uzi Rebhun (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem), David L. Brown This paper examines internal migration in Israel that involves movements between rural and urban localities. We make use of data from the last Israeli population Census of 2008 into which we incorporated contextual measures from official publications. Descriptive findings show that between 2003 and 2008 some 15% of Israelis changed locality of residence. Eight out of every ten Israelis who resided in an urban locality in 2003 and made an inter-locality move in the next five years chose another urban locality and only one-fifth moved to a rural locality. Migrants who lived in a rural locality at the beginning of the period were almost equally divided between those who relocated to another rural locality and those who moved to an urban locality. Migration that has an urban locality as its destination, whether the origin is an urban locality (urban-urban) or rural (rural-urban) exhibits the highest rates of inter-district moves; in contrast, movements from one rural locality to another rural locality is much

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less likely to involve a change of district. Next we apply several multivariate analyses. The first assesses the determinants of urban-rural migration versus migration among urban localities or rural-urban migration versus migration among rural localities; the second repeat the above analysis but examines it separately for movements within the same district or between districts; and the third analysis is restricted only to those who have made an inter-district move distinguishing between migrants from one rural locality to another versus those who remained in their beginning-of-period rural locality. The findings are discussed in relation to urban/rural migration in developed countries and in the background of the theoretical and empirical explanations on migration between different types of localities. 26 Societal Implications of International Migration (Room A901) Chair: Pau Baizan (ICREA and Universitat Pompeu Fabra) 26.1 Eastern European Immigration in British Tabloids: Refutation of Britain’s Multicultural Society Fathi Bourmeche (Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Sfax) My paper will be focused on the way British tabloids framed the recent influx of Eastern Europeans from 2004 to 2007, the time span covering the two waves of the fifth European Union enlargement. The first wave of enlargement took place in May 2004, with the addition of eight countries to the European Union. The second wave took place in January 2007, with the addition of Bulgaria and Romania. This enlargement resulted in an influx of a large number of people from these countries, and thus the re-emergence of the immigration issue and its impact on the British society. Readers of most British newspapers were increasingly concerned about immigration following the publication of articles covering the potential increase of Eastern European immigrants as a consequence of this enlargement. Articles covering Eastern European immigration, published in tabloids, will be qualitatively analysed, using framing theory, a recognised tool in media studies. My intention is to study the link between media frames and public opinion in relation to the recent influx and its impact on people’s attitudes about Eastern Europeans, juxtaposing media representations to opinion polls about the recent influx. I shall argue that the recent influx of Eastern Europeans was framed in relation to Britain’s failure in multiculturalism. 26.2 Exploring leading role of secondary migrants in local and transnational social practices among highly skilled migrants in Warsaw Aneta Piekut (Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw) While there is a growing body of research on migration and integration of immigrants from third countries arriving into European Union (EU), this paper draws attention to the intra-EU mobility and integration processes. It is doing so by presenting results of a research on social adaptation practices of highly skilled migrants of British, French and

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German nationality that temporarily live in Warsaw (i.e. up to five years). Specifically, I focus on families and spouses/partners of highly skilled migrants. The paper challenges the notion of passive role of secondary migrants – i.e. spouses and partners that follow primary/leading highly skilled migrants – in the migration and integration process. The research demonstrated that most of female secondary migrants – who themselves usually have higher skills and qualifications – would like to undertake paid employment in the Polish labour market, but despite there is no legal obstructions to work in Poland for any UE citizens, they fail to find a job due to the lack of insider advantages (e.g. local social and professional networks, knowledge of Polish language) and more importantly – due to the absence of any local policy programmes that could make use of this valuable cultural capital. The research has also exposed a gender dimension in the transnational spaces creation with women playing active role in reproduction of these spaces. In this respect, women ‘not-leading’ migrants sustain transnational networks serving as a basis for further international mobility. Moreover, by anchoring family life in a wider familiar and friendship networks, women contribute to securing a sense of ‘familiarity’ and ‘stability’ which constitutes a balance for ‘fluidity’ and ‘changeability’ of a mobile family life style. The notion of their secondary migratory status is contradicted by their primary role in local and transnational social practices. 26.3 The role of international migration in skill acquisition and career progression: The temporary, seasonal migration of elite cricket professionals Catherine Waite (Loughborough University) Engaging with debates of contemporary, highly-skilled migration, this paper explores the relationship between temporary, international migration and career progression in skilled occupations. Studies have revealed that in the case of international secondments in multi-national businesses, aspirations of career progression are a key motive for motive for migration (Beaverstock 2005; Faulconbridge et al. 2009). This poses questions of the wider salience of inter-connections between temporary, international migration and career progression in skilled occupations. This research will consider how and when the skills required for career progression are acquired; with a focus on whether international migration, allowing skills to be gained and developed in different socio-spatial contexts, is an increasingly significant component of career trajectories in skilled occupations. In order to explore these issues a case study of professional cricket players is adopted, concentrating on the seasonal out-migration of English County Cricketers to Australian league cricket. As with athletes more broadly, cricketers represent a group of professionals who have been under-researched in geography. This enables an inter-disciplinary approach to the study, drawing on existing migration research from sociology and the sociology of sport, as well as other disciplines. As research that is still in progress, this paper will present quantitative results that outline the development and context within which contemporary migration is occurring. Initial results from qualitative interviews with migrant cricketers will also be presented. This will begin to demonstrate the role that international migration has in influencing individuals’ career

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trajectories and what the wider economic, social and cultural implications are of such migrations. 27 Coping with the Challenges of Population Decline Decline (Room Heymanszaal) Chair: Nina Conkova (NIDI) 27.1 Demographic Decline and Social Capital: the role of ICTs Maja Rocak (Zuyd University- CESRT, Research Centre Social Integration) This presentation is based on a PhD project exploring the implications of demographic decline in relation to social capital and the role of ICTs in this situation. The purpose of this presentation is to identify social aspects as relevant and often neglected in the discussion of demographic decline and to argue the importance of exploring the concepts of social capital as well as ICTs in this context. Demographic decline is expected to become more present in European societies. In this research demographic decline is broader than (just) ageing and shrinking of the population. It also implies socio-economic decline observable in the areas dealing with demographic decline. It is seen as one of the most relevant future developments which will have impact on society dynamics. This changing dynamics imply potential impact on the social capital in a declining area. On a regular basis “solutions” for demographic decline are placed in the social sphere. Boosting of the social capital in particular as well as ICT developments are frequently mentioned as desired answers for the problems demographic decline might cause. However, there has been hardly any research done on the combination of this concepts. This research deals with following question: How is social capital developing in the area experiencing demographic decline and what is the role of ICT’s in this situation? This presentation explores the characteristics and development of social capital in the situation of demographic decline and, in particular, the role of ICTs in building and maintaining social capital in a declining area. An account of the academic discussion of the concepts of social capital and ICTs in the discourse on demographic decline will be given. 27.2 Organizational capacity in local community of interest organizations Jannie Rozema (Hanze University of Applied Sciences) Rural areas in the North of the Netherlands face a prognosis of 5 – 10% population decline in 20 years time and a 10 – 20% increase of the elderly. In response to this demographic change local governments develop policy in the field of livability in order to preserve the quality of living in local communities. At the same time local governments undergo cut backs in their budgets and prioritize their expenses. Therefore citizen participation is often mentioned as a means of structuring the relationship between local government and citizens aiming for livable communities

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and neighbourhoods. Coproduction is the key word for shared responsibilities of local government, civic institutions and citizens, which presupposes that (groups of) citizens are in possession of organizational capacity. Organizational capacity can be defined here as the competency of organized citizens to realize goals of public interest. In almost every rural community in the North of the Netherlands local organizations are active as advocate of community interests and at the same time as practical organizers of the yearly traditional community activities. These local community of interest organizations (CIO) see themselves as key players in matters of local livability and on behalf of that are acknowledged as partners in close consultation on public matters with local government. These CIO’s can be seen as central in the community’s organizational capacity. It may be expected in the context of citizen participation that the appeal to the boards of the CIO’s to contribute in matters of livability in local communities will grow. My research is about the organizational capacity of CIO boards in a context of societal changes and of more citizen participation. This paper means to elaborate on the organizational capacity of CIO’s in terms of skills, motivation, resources and collaboration and secondly in what way the organizational capacity CIO’s transforms as the changing situations ask for more leadership, teamwork and collectiveness – how do these CIO’s adapt to their partly self-set tasks? By comparing CIO’s in different communities it may be possible to distinguish components of organizational capacity as critical success factor in enhancing livability in communities. 27.3 Filling The Knowledge Gap - Scenario Planning And GIS To Support Planning In Shrinking Municipalities Markus Schaffert (Anhalt University of Applied Sciences, Dessau-Roßlau) Population Decline leads to tremendous and partly new challenges for German municipalities. At the same time concepts and tools for an adequate response to these challenges are few. This is valid especially when it comes to rural municipalities, where accessible data is often poor, necessary knowledge rare and the debate on an adequate handling of shrinkage comparatively new. Against this background it is argued that scenario planning is a suitable method for municipalities dealing with population decline: Scenario planning is capable of handling uncertainty in the context of a globally connected economy as much as in the context of politically motivated decisions in the light of shrinkage. It supports awareness rising and has been used as test bed for future developments in various fields. Last but not least, it helps filling the knowledge gap according to the data available. Some methodological disadvantages, especially the methods complexity and the demanding communicability of its results, remain though. In order to minimize these disadvantages a combination of scenario planning and geographical information systems (GIS) is proposed. The theoretical thoughts presented above lead to a hands-on concept for the combined usage of scenario planning and GIS in shrinking rural municipalities. This concept focuses on vacancies of residential buildings as a momentous consequence of population decline in Germany.

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Both, the theoretical thoughts as well as the concept presented are based on the author’s doctoral thesis and years of work between two conflicting priorities. These conflicts derive on the one hand from municipality´s increasing demand for help (with regard to rising maintenance costs for the urban hardware, the necessity of closing social infrastructure and the loss of traditional housing structures by exceeding vacancies). On the other hand an ongoing displeasure of local politicians to face shrinkage in an objective way has to be taken into account. 28 Youngsters on the Move: Causes and Consequences (Room A901) Chair: Tialda Haartsen (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 28.1 Are the Dutch rural and declining areas losing their highly educated to the cities? Anja Steenbekkers (National Institute of Social Research / SCP) Over the last decades specific migration patterns have caused a considerable dejuvenation and ageing of the rural population. A significant gap has occurred in the population structure regarding young adults (20-39 year-olds). A well known demographic phenomenon is that urban areas, offering high vocational and academic education, attract ambitious rural youngsters. It seems that an abundant supply of high-skilled jobs in cities retains the graduated majority to return to their region of rural origin. Will this selective migration induce a gap in education level between urban en rural populations? The apparent lack of appropriate employment in declining areas will probably repel in-migrants, especially well educated people with affluent possibilities elsewhere. A consequential question is therefore, whether there is evidence for an more pronounced educational gap in declining areas. We studied national migration patterns of different age groups across rural and urban areas in the Netherlands. The lack of educational indicators in national migration data was solved by using additional empirical information about completed education of labour force age groups. Both population, migration and education data are differentiated for a variety of rural settlements, built up from a matrix of small / large villages crossed with a periurban / remote locality. Empirical data indicate a general lower education level in the rural population, but since the share of highly educated shows a similar trend as in the urban population, an education gap is out of the question. Moreover, from the age composition of the urban-to-rural migration groups we expect a relevant proportion of highly educated urbans (mainly families with children, also affluent elderly couples) to enter the countryside. The population structure of declining villages clearly reveils dejuvenation and ageing, but also a surplus of pre-early retirement elderly in the small villages, probably partly composed of well-off and well educated urban elderly. 28.2 Teens on the move: an analysis of adolescent migration in rural South Africa Rachel Bennett (University of Southampton)

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In South Africa, internal migration to access opportunities and to support family members is a commonplace experience during adolescence. Migration may lead to intentional or unintentional changes in adolescents’ social and residential arrangements that have positive or negative consequences for health and development. Circumstances of migration are known to influence the migration-wellbeing relationship. However the contexts of moves amongst adolescents, particularly in low and middle income settings, are poorly understood. This paper explores the relationship between propensity to migrate during adolescence in rural South Africa, and individual characteristics & life events, parental circumstances, housing quality and household composition, and wider support networks. Discrete time event history techniques are employed to investigate the contexts of migration amongst 12-17 year olds, using detailed longitudinal data from a demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The analysis focuses on differences in the circumstances of migration by relationship to biological parents and between accompanied and unaccompanied moves. The findings show that by age 18, 42% of adolescents who were resident in the study area on their 12

th birthday had migrated at

least once. Adolescents who shared household membership with both parents were significantly less likely to move than those who were co-members with one or neither parent. Almost half (45%) of all movers moved alone, and girls were significantly more likely to be engaged in unaccompanied migration than boys. Accompanied migration was associated with adolescents born to older parents and residing in smaller, recently-formed households. Unaccompanied migration was associated with adolescents who were not enrolled in school and residing in poor households, but with strong support networks beyond their initial household. The findings contribute to understanding the diverse contexts of migration during adolescence in rural South Africa, and are an important step in disentangling the relationships between migration and wellbeing at this formative stage of the life course. 28.3 "The young are the future" - Youth migration as "hinge of fate" for rural communities Doris Schmied (University of Bayreuth), Markus Siegler Migration decisions of young people are essential for rural areas experiencing population decline and ageing. The factors influencing the key life question of "Should I stay or should I leave?" are extremely multifaceted. General factors include the socio-economic situation of the home area, the local/regional labour market, the infrastructure and services offered - and not least its public transport system. But these factors are filtered by the individuals, i.e. the personal background of the young, their educational and professional aspirations, their local ties and attachment, their wish to participate in modern "urban" amenities, etc. The paper will use the results of studies on youth migration from rural areas in different countries to analyse this complex decision-making process and compare it with the results of a case study from four municipalities in Upper Franconia, Bavaria (Germany). The communities located on the slopes of Mount Ochsenkopf are not only

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faced by out-migration of the young and overall demographic decline but also by economic and financial constraints, which seriously restrict their capacity to react to this "hinge of fate", in order to stop or at least decelerate the speed of the downward demographic and developmental spiral. 28.4 Youth migration: impact on sending and receiving municipalities in the Netherlands Dorien Manting (PBL/UVA) In the Netherlands, there is a debate going on about the growing popularity of Dutch cities and the role of youth migration therein. Some argue that Fielding’s concept of the escalator mechanism, developed in the early nineties, no longer holds. That is, they argue that there is a growing group of ‘new young citizens’ that prefer the city above a so-called new Town, even after children have arrived. As such, one would expect there will be different trends of youth migration into and out of Dutch cities. Others argue that recent trends in youth migration are more a conjuncture effect of the economic crisis and the crisis in the housing market than a structural effect. In that case, both in- and outmigration trends will be showing similar period effects. These trends affect both sending and receiving municipalities. Youth migration tended to be directed from shrinking regions to growing cities and from cities to the surroundings of cities. In this paper, we will elaborate on recent demographic trends in youth migration into and out of Dutch municipalities in order to give more insight into the question whether the recent trends in young migration showed signs of structural or conjunctural developments and how this affected both growing and shrinking municipalities. 29 Economic Conditions, Mobility and Population Composition (Room A8) Chair: Gunnar Malmberg (Centre for Population Studies/ Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University) 29.1 Europeans on the move: Changing migration patterns in Spain under economic recession Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco, Fernando Gil-Alonso (University of Barcelona), Miguel Rubiales, Romà Pujadas-Rúbies Most of the literature developed in Spain during this last decade has focused on non-EU citizens’ immigration and settlement patters. However, Europeans presently are the largest foreign population group. Around 2.6 million Europeans –47% of 5.7 million foreigners registered in Spanish municipalities– are now (2011) living in Spain, 1.2 million of them are from the former EU-15 countries, and 1.4 million from other European countries (12 new member states and non-EU countries). Both groups of nationalities are separately analysed as each presents very distinctive demographic and migration characteristics: the former have a much older age-structure than the latter, who are mainly young adults moving to Spain for work related reasons. Their geographical settlement and internal migration patterns are also quite different. This

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paper aims to study how Europeans’ migration patterns have changed during the present economic recession. Using Padrón continuo (Spain’s centralized local register) and Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales (residential mobility statistics) data, we specifically analyse: 1) Europeans’ recent international migration flows and distribution across Spain; 2) their internal mobility patterns, between the 50 Spanish provinces and within each of them; 3) their characteristics by sex and age; 4) differences across nationalities or groups of nationalities; and finally 5) the effects of the present deep recession on the latter trends. Results show that Europeans’ entry flows to Spain have substantially decreased since 2008 (“other Europeans” being particularly affected) and that their internal mobility has also fallen –although figures would also indicate that these last two years they seem to have stabilised. Geographical patterns have also changed and, once again, non-EU Europeans would have been the most affected by these transformations. Some of the provinces where the construction sector was particularly dynamic, like Mediterranean ones, have strongly been hit by the crisis, and therefore have gone from attracting to expelling migrants. 29.2 How the Spanish housing demand bubble grew and bursted: baby boomers, immigration and spatial diffusion Antonio López-Gay (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics Barcelona), Juan A. Módenes The Spanish housing market has known two successive waves of expansion and contraction during the last fifteen years. Both phases achieved an extraordinary intensity, hardly seen in other countries, and they are often related to two consecutive, but opposed, demographic episodes. On the one hand, housing market expansion took place coinciding with the arrival of baby boomers at ages of maximum household formation and with the settlement of a vast number of foreign born immigrants in the country. On the other hand, smaller cohorts are arriving now at the age of leaving home and international migratory flows have decreased dramatically. Some authors have raised the concept of generational housing bubble to describe this connection between housing and demography dynamics. The paper aims to achieve two interconnected goals. The first one is to identify the territorial patterns behind both periods. In this sense, a triple regionalization for every province (central, suburban and rural areas) has been made for all the calculated measures. Secondly, in order to figure out the influence of demographic dynamics upon the expansive and constrictive periods, the role of age structure as an endogenous element must be separated from the immigrant component. To carry on this latter goal, real and potential (in the absence of immigration) housing demand for each area has been estimated since 1998. Results show that during the expansive period the housing demand grew in all areas. It even stopped the relative suburbanization of households, which in some cases produced a population decrease in central areas. International migration also pushed this temporary turn-around. The end of the expansive period is characterized by a dramatic reduction in housing demand in all areas. If there is not an extreme inflexion in the economic and demographic evolution, the current contraction episode will continue in the short term, and even longer.

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29.3 The Great Recession and the Internal Migration of the Foreign Population in Spain Joaquín Recaño-Valverde (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Sergi Vidal The exacerbation of the financial crisis in Spain featuring almost 6 million unemployed marked the twilight of the great immigration waves dating since the end of the XXth century. With almost one million foreign entries in 2007, when the immigration fluxes started to decline, the current stark socio-economic conditions have contributed to a substantial reduction of until a 40 percent of that figure in 2011. Besides increasing unemployment among foreigners lead to an increase of emigration of the foreign population towards other countries. Analyses of internal moves attending to both trends declining immigration and growing emigration of the foreign population have been neglected. This work examines the aftermath of economic downturn on internal migration processes of foreign population in Spain. It describes the internal mobility of the foreign population in the latest recession times, identifying new socio-demographic and territorial determinants. Special attention is paid to differences on the travelled distance, including short residential moves (under 50km) and employment related moves of mid-and long distances. In addition, the large sample size allow for citizenship and country of birth specific analysis, while comparison with the reference group – the Spanish population – will be done at any time. Population archival data (Microdatos de la Estadística de Variaciones Residenciales) will be used for analysis. This is micro-level data containing information on residential relocations as well as basic demographic features (citizenship, age, sex, country of birth, and the origin and the destination of the internal moves). 29.4 How does structural social and economic change drive (im)mobility? International perspectives towards a potential research agenda Ian Shuttleworth (QUB), Tony Champion Describing and understanding changing mobility rates– here defined by changes of address and residential moves within a country – over a time scale of decades is problematic on a number of counts. However, understanding how mobility has changed over the longer term, and why, is pressing for policy reasons as well as for understanding social change and evaluating social theories about these changes. Empirical evidence on trends is mixed. In some world areas, such as North America, mobility rates, particularly over longer distances, have fallen since the 1960s whereas in Europe and Australia similar declines do not seem to have occurred. There is therefore a mismatch between social theories that proclaim a ‘world on the move’ and observed mobility patterns in some world areas. Furthermore, some contemporary labour market and technical developments may have contradictory and complex outcomes on mobility. Given this background, it is argued that mobility research lies in the intersection between statistical enquiry, political economy and social theory and that a holistic perspective is therefore demanded to begin to understand how mobility and social change are interrelated. Additionally, an international perspective is

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required to understand the complex out workings of general structural changes in advanced economies in separate national contexts. The presentation sketches out a potential research agenda and also presents some preliminary findings. 30 Fertility and Migration (Room A7) Chair: Alessandra Carioli (University of Groningen and NIDI) 30.1 Residential Context, Migration and Fertility Hill Kulu (University of Liverpool) This study examines fertility variation by residential context and its causes. While there is a large literature on fertility determinants in industrialised countries, little research has investigated spatial fertility variation. We study fertility variation across regions with different size and within urban regions by distinguishing between central cities and suburbs of the cities. We use longitudinal data from Britain and apply event history analysis. We investigate to what extent the socio-economic characteristics of couples and selective migrations explain fertility variation between residential contexts and to what extent contextual factors play a role. We also study childbearing behaviour of people who move from one residential context to another. Our preliminary analysis shows that the fertility levels decline as the size of an urban area increases; within urban regions suburbs have significantly higher fertility levels than the city centres. 30.2 Societal Norms, Economic Conditions and Spatial Variation of Childbearing in Cohabitation across European Regions Trude Lappegård (Statistics Norway, Research Department), Sebastian Kluesener, Daniele Vignoli Childbearing in cohabitation has increasingly gained ground in Europe, but patterns of union formation and childbearing have developed along different trajectories across countries. An array of social, economic, and ideational forces has produced variation over time and space, calling for more research about the relationship between contextual conditions and family formation decisions. The aim of this paper is to investigate how contextual factors such as societal values and economic conditions relate to variation in childbearing in cohabitation across Europe. Analyses are based on harmonised survey data from more than 44 thousands individuals nested in 126 sub-national regions in 15 countries. We propose a 3-level hierarchical logistic regression model predicting the probability to get the first child in cohabitation vs. marriage, controlling for individual-level and contextual-level characteristics. Four key contextual dimensions are considered: social acceptability of cohabitation, importance of religious norms, women’s economic autonomy and structural economic conditions. For each contextual dimension we introduce two measures in our models. The first is a “within-country” measure, which gives the

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deviation of the regional value from the country mean. The second is a “between-country” measure, for which we use the country mean. Our results show that geographic differences in societal norms and economic conditions are highly relevant for understanding spatial variation in childbearing in cohabitation within Europe. Across countries perceptions on the economic autonomy of women are highly positively associated with childbearing in cohabitation. This lends support to the Second Demographic Transition Framework (Lesthaeghe, 2010). On the other hand, we find within countries a positive association between unemployment rates and childbearing in cohabitation, which is in line with the Pattern of Disadvantage Hypothesis (Perelli-Harris et al., 2010). Thus, both theoretical frameworks, which might appear contradictory at first glance, seem relevant for understanding spatial variation in family formation behaviour across Europe. 30.3 Rethinking the effect of total fertility rate to population decline from the Hong Kong experience Ling Sze Nancy Leung (Ritsumeikan University) In general, countries with lowest low fertility (Total Fertility Rate, TFR<1.3) usually face population decline and population ageing. Even there is influx of immigrants, no matter to offset population decline or to offset population ageing, large numbers of migrants would be required to replace the losing population from lowest low fertility. Therefore, most counties with lowest low fertility apply aggressive policies to encourage the bearing of children. However, under this highly mobile society, children who are born in this country may not be a part of the population soon after their birth. Especially those more developed countries such as United States and Canada that practice birthright citizenship. Cross the border to give birth is not a new phenomenon, from the age of ‘anchor baby’ to the age of ‘birth tourism’. Women travel to a country that practices birthright citizenship in order to give their child a citizenship of the destination country. In the case of United States, although the share of live birth by temporary visit women is increasing, it does not exit 5% of the total live births. However, in the case of Hong Kong, the share of live birth by temporary visit mainland Chinese women increase from 10% (2005) to 37% (2010). Like most of the women who practice birth tourism would bring their children back to their home country soon after they received the child’s citizenship certificate. Therefore, even TFR shows a recovery trend, the child population does not increase in reality. In other words, even TFR is at replacement level, population decline may occur if there is large number of child emigration. Thus, further study is required to rethink the basic idea towards the solution of population decline. This paper examines how birth tourism affects TFR and population growth and rethinks the solution towards population decline. 30.4 Disentangling the quantum and tempo of immigrant fertility Ben Wilson (London School of Economics) Migrant fertility has become an increasingly prominent explanation for recent fertility change. Immigrant Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) are consistently higher than native TFRs

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in the majority of European countries (Sobotka, 2008). However, research has cast doubt on the use of tempo-distorted measures of fertility for evaluating the contribution of immigrants to aggregate fertility (Toulemon, 2004, 2006). Furthermore, previous research has almost exclusively analysed incomplete fertility profiles, an approach which provides little insight into the absolute impact of immigrant fertility. Considering the UK, this research uses survey estimation and count regression techniques to disentangle tempo variation from the quantum of immigrant fertility. This approach is crucial for testing migrant fertility hypotheses because migration is known to influence the timing of childbearing (e.g. Andersson, 2004). The results support several hypotheses, with evidence of disruption followed by elevated fertility, particularly for recent cohorts of women arriving after age 25. This may be explained by selection, anticipation, or adaptation. However, the results show no evidence of disruption for immigrants from Jamaica or Bangladesh, suggesting cultural maintenance or socialisation for these groups. After exploring these results in detail, this paper discusses the benefits of this approach for understanding migrant fertility and informing population projections. 31 Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labour Markets: Student migration I (Room A2) Chair: Rachel Franklin (Brown University) 31.1 Housing, sustainability and student populations Alexis Alamel (Loughborough University) This paper will focus on the linkages between the residential decision-making of students, types of accommodation, issues of sustainability and effects of income and debt. Building upon recent studies of studentification, findings from a questionnaire survey of students will be presented to investigate the social, economic and environmental aspects that are considered and/or neglected by students within processes of residential decision-making. A model of student income and debt vs. student’s energy consumption and environmental behaviour will be outlined, which introduces a triple bottom line system of economic, environmental and social factors. With this in mind, the paper will assess and compare students’ perceptions on environmental issues within their particular accommodation, and impacts on their lifestyles and residential choices. 31.2 Internal migration patterns of students in the UK: changing flows into different neighbourhoods using 2011 GB census data Darren P. Smith (Loughborough University) This paper will explore 2011 GB census data to examine the geographical effects of the commodification of studenthood and student lifestyle in the UK, and the contention that students are increasingly socially and spatially segregated from other social groups in student-only spaces. Comparative analyses will be undertaken with 2001 GB

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census data to explore how student residential patterns have been transformed over the decade, and if students have are less concentrated in established residential neighbourhoods. The paper will investigate changing regional geographies of student migration flows and consider some of the factors underpinning the changing student geographies of GB. 31.3 Towards a typology of student migration: Illustrations from student record data for the United Kingdom Neil Bailey (University of Southampton) Around two and half million people were attending an institute of higher education in the United Kingdom in the 2010/2011 academic year, which equates to around 4.1% of the total population. Surprisingly, given the importance of higher education very little work has been conducted on the migratory patterns of students attending institutes of higher education in the UK. This paper puts forward a typology that can be used to categorise the different migration transitions that a person can undertake in order to attend a higher educational institution. With the use of the student migration typology and the Student Record Dataset of the Higher Educational Statistics Agency, which contains detailed information on every student recorded as attending an institute of higher education in the UK, illustrations of the migratory patterns of those attending higher education in the UK during the 2010/11 academic year with a focus on the local authority (LA) and county level geography are provided. The data indicate that around 56% of all students migrated across a LA boundary in order to study at a higher educational institution (HEI), while 46% of students have their term-time address in the same LA as the institution suggesting they live in close proximity to the HEI. Therefore, it can be said that the remaining 54% of all students have to commute across a LA boundary to attend their HEI. When analysing LAs Oxford, Cambridge, Nottingham, Leeds and Sheffield all stand out as areas with large student populations and high proportions of students in there population. 32 International Migration, Development and Return Migration (Room A900) Chair: Ajay Bailey (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 32.1 Emigration and return migration in transition contexts – a comparative perspective Daniel Goeler (University of Bamberg), Zaiga Krisjane The context of globalisation and post-socialist transition around the Millenium entails manifold economic, political and social changes as well as new forms of migration and mobility. This concerns also the labour migration, which tend to intensify the last two decades. Obvious consequences are mutual interactions between sending and receiving countries like transnationality and multilocality. Beside these “new phenomena” we set the lens on the differences between migration subsystems and the question of the effects of a (possible) return-migration. We discuss the topic with

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theoretical evidence and sustain the argument with empirical insights taken from a new EU-member (Latvia) and a Southeast European transition country (Albania). The case studies show the ability of migration-subsystems to cope with internal and external caused shocks, to reorganize this process in a novel and creative, but also sometimes wellknown, manner. If necessary, migrants define themselves as a new social system. Main characteristics of this system are a wide-spread multilocal social network led by migration, individual migration experiences, and migration culture. Migrants are in this sense interpreted as agents of societal transformations, which are able to adapt social practices from different economic, social and cultural contexts. Such kind of resilience as a performed social practice is based on creativity, knowledge and individual and personal skills and capacities of the participants of the network. Additionally, and in times of economic crisis, we have to explore the possibility of return migration as another step of migratory movements and interrelation between sending and recipient societies. 32.2 Financial Constraints and International Migration: The Role of Social Policy and Financial Development Edo Mahendra (Department of International Development, University of Oxford) Financial constraints may prevent people from migrating even in the presence of positive net benefit from migration. It is so because they –typically the poorest members of the society- can neither use their own savings to finance migration nor to borrow funds from external sources because they lack the collateral to borrow against. Conventional wisdom holds that improvement in economic development at home should provide less incentive to migrate. However, it also relaxes the financial constraints of those in the lower income distribution, thus increasing their capability to migrate. Therefore, in theory the effect of financial constraints relaxation on migration is inherently ambiguous. This paper empirically investigates the role of financial constraints in international migration. More specifically, it analyses the role of external sources of financial constraints relaxation i.e. social policy and financial development as migration determinants. Social policies, for instance in the form of cash transfers or public goods provision, provide financial reliefs to the beneficiaries. Meanwhile, financial development, such as more developed credit markets, functions as a catalyst for economic development in general. Although these external factors undoubtedly loosen financial constraints, their net effects on migration are theoretically inconclusive. By using Amartya Sen’s capability approach on migration decision-making, I show that the impact of financial constraints relaxation on migration is not straightforward. Empirically, I analyse the bilateral migration stock data for 1960-2000. I use various indicators of social spending and financial development to see how these two external sources of financial constraints relaxation affect international migration. I also address any bias resulting from multilateral resistance to migration. The findings shall shed light on the theoretically ambiguous relationship between financial constraints and

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migration, and how external factors (social policy and financial development) play their roles. 32.3 Indonesian Diaspora in Asia Salut Muhidin (Macquarie University) In the last few years, there is an increasing interest in connecting Indonesian diaspora around the world in order to assist in the national development. A recent event called “Congress of Indonesian Diaspora” held by Indonesian embassy in USA was initiated to focus on this issue. Nevertheless, there is still little known about the actual size and composition of the global Indonesian diaspora. This paper attempts to contribute to fill in this gap by analysing migration patterns and several specific demographic factors among Indonesian diaspora as part of the largest Asian community in this region. Hypotheses on selection, adaptation, disruption, and socialization effects are utilized in the analysis. The paper will also explore the potential role that the Indonesian diaspora could play in both Asian region and in Indonesia. 32.4 International Remittances and its impact on Household Expenditure pattern in India Sandhya Mahapatro (Population Research Centre, India & University of Groningen) Ajay Bailey , K.S. James, Inge Hutter India is regarded as the largest recipient of remittances and the magnitude of remittances increasing steadily from $ 2.1 billion in 1990 to $ 69 billion in 2012. The increasing volume and magnitude of international remittances brought the attention that remittances play a significant role for development of household economy. Given this context, the paper is an attempt to understand the impact of international remittances on consumption pattern of households in India with special emphasis on southern regions that is Kerala and Karnataka. Using NSSO 64th round (2007/08) data and applying TOBIT regression analysis, the study analyses the expenditure pattern of households receiving international remittances. The results of multivariate analysis show that remittance receiving households spent more on durable goods and health care and less on food items than non-migrant households. These findings are more in line with the optimistic view that remittances contribute to development of human capital and hence play an important role for household wellbeing. 33 Methods in Population Geography (Room A3) Chair: Paul Norman (School of Geography, University of Leeds) 33.1 Searching for visitors? The utility of web-sourced data for the estimation of temporary populations in Australia Elin Charles-Edwards (The University of Queensland), Martin Bell

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Temporary population mobility is integral to human spatial mobility. It shapes the distribution of settlement systems, the size and composition of communities, and the pattern of individual’s lives. In Australia, interest in temporary mobility has been driven primarily by a need to estimate seasonal populations which generate significant demand for goods and services within individual localities and regions. Traditional census and survey data are poorly suited to this task, due to a lack of information on the space-time behaviours of individuals, under-enumeration of the most mobile sections of the population, and large sampling errors. In the past decade, mobile phone and other Information and Communication Technology (ICT) data has emerged as an alternative source for the estimation of temporary populations (Ahas 2007). These data reveal the location of individuals in real time in a way which allows dynamic estimates of non-resident populations to be made, but are difficult to access in many parts of the world, including Australia. In this paper, we explore web-sourced data as a possible alternative to location-based ICT data. Using data from Google Trends ™, we explore the relationship between a range of location-specific internet search terms (e.g. “Cairns restaurants”) and existing estimates of temporary populations (Charles-Edwards 2011) across a range of visitor destinations. This study represents a conceptual shift in the use of ICT data. Rather than capturing the location of people in space and time directly, fluctuations in visitor populations are estimated from changes in the frequency of specific internet search terms. The underlying assumption is that visitors search for distinctive terms and phrases while at the destination. We conclude by assessing the reliability of web-sourced data as a measure of temporary populations and discuss its potential application for the estimation of temporal variability in other components of demographic change. 33.2 Are non-contiguous administrative areas a feasible solution to the spatial delineation problem in the definition of internal migration? Thomas Niedomysl (Lund University), Ulf Ernstsson, Urban Fransson The spatial dimension in the definition of internal migration usually refers to the distance someone has to move to be regarded as a migrant. However, lack of relevant data has forcibly led to operationalizations of “distance” as movement across some administrative border, regardless of the actual distance moved. A long-held concern, recently confirmed, has been that such operationalizations may include significant shares that only move short distances (residential mobility), even though long-distance migrants are the main interest in migration research. To avoid inclusion of short-distance movers, a few studies have analyzed migration flows between non-contiguous administrative areas, displaying very interesting results, but their impact on migration research has nonetheless been negligible. Possibly this is due to the fact that even when non-contiguous areas are employed, there is still uncertainty regarding the actual migration distances. This paper compares actual and inferred distances for individual migrants using both contiguous- and non-contiguous administrative areas, investigating the extent to which short-distance movers are excluded using the latter spatial delineation. Employing uniquely detailed data where individual migration

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distances for an entire country’s population have been measured with considerable accuracy, this paper seeks to determine the feasibility of non-contiguous areas as a solution to the spatial delineation problem in the definition of internal migration. 33.3 Twenty-five years (1988-2012) of boundary-consistent population data for the Dutch municipalities Anton Vrieling (University of Twente), Chantal Melser Spatial reorganization of administrative units takes place frequently in several countries. It consists of the merging or division of spatial units, or boundary changes between units. Because of these reorganizations, the assessment of longer-term population dynamics becomes difficult at a detailed spatial level. To deal with this problem in the Netherlands, we developed a new correction method for population time-series of the Dutch municipalities. Instead of estimating the affected population, we used existing data on the number of persons affected by each spatial change. We assumed that population development was spatially uniform within a municipality before any boundary change. Systematically transferring proportions of the population from original to newly defined target municipalities back in time, provided a corrected time series for 1988-2012, based on the 2012 municipal boundaries. Overall, our results correspond very well with a detailed existing reconstruction for 1999-2009 that used registry data for individual households. Based on our reconstruction, we present maps for the municipal population dynamics between 1988 and 2012. Municipalities with population decline are observed in north-east Groningen, south Limburg, and Zeeland Flanders, and also near municipalities of strong population growth in the west and central parts of the country. Over 60 per cent of Dutch municipalities have experienced some sort of population decline, or at least stagnation. The reconstructed time series can be obtained freely from the authors for further exploration by interested researchers. Our procedure may be applicable in other countries with effective population registration systems. 33.4 Modelling household change in a dynamic microsimulation framework Paul Williamson (University of Liverpool) To date dynamic microsimulation models have generally avoided the thorny problem of modelling household change, focussing instead upon families or individuals. This paper introduces SCOTSIM, a dynamic microsimulation model developed to project household numbers for Scotland. Future household numbers are influenced by the classic demographic triumvirate of fertility, mortality and migration. Of these three, it is the influence of the latter that is most difficult to model in a microsimulation framework. Migration-related changes in household numbers arise as a result of partnership formation and breakup, nest emptying, movement for study or work, immigration and emigration. This paper explains how these various demographic behaviours were disentangled through careful analysis of the British Household Panel Study (BHPS). The resulting rates, once fed into SCOTSIM, throw a clearer light onto the demographic drivers of future household numbers, and their relative importance

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from a modelling perspective. A comparison with official headship-based projections highlights the potential strengths and weaknesses of a microsimulation-based approach. 34 Population Decline at the Local Level (Room Heymanszaal) Chair: Hans Elshof (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 34.1 The challenges of living in rural areas: a qualitative study in Aragón Raul Lardies (University of Zaragoza), Ana Castello, Mª Luz Hernandez The economic and demographic decline has characterized many rural areas in Spain since the mid-twentieth century. Aragon is an inland region in the North of the country characterized by significant depopulation processes in the past and a significant concentration of its population in Zaragoza, the regional capital. However, the arrival of new settlers to some rural areas has been an important feature in recent years; generally, these areas have certain competitive advantages, have relatively good transport links and are close to urban areas. This paper is a qualitative approach to several aspects related to the arrival of in-migrants to rural areas in the region. By conducting in-depth interviews with new residents we mainly want to know the reasons for this mobility and the different challenges and problems facing this population. The results confirm the diversity of migrants involved and highlights the many difficulties that newcomers have to solve in relation, for example, with the acquisition of the property, with citizen participation at the local community, and with accessibility and proximity services meeting the needs that arise in daily life. The elimination of state aid and the current economic crisis are introducing new constraints which lead sometimes to the deterioration of the quality of life in rural areas. This raises questions about the continuity of the residents already installed, the arrival of new ones and their role in the revitalization of rural areas. 34.2 The Opportunities of Emptiness Julia Rössel (Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Germany) The Uckermark in north eastern Germany is one of the regions with the lowest population density in Germany. It is a peripherical region which was part of the German Democratic Republic and was mainly characterized by agriculture use. Since the Fall of the Wall in 1990 the Uckermark is strongly affected by a population decline with the well-known vicious circle of ageing of the population, unemployment, vacancy and so forth. These negative aspects are recently part of public discussions, however this paper attempts to change the point of view in order to focus on the opportunities that rise out of the emptiness. Based on qualitative interviews and the village Wallmow as an example this paper deals with the moving in of new inhabitants into the village, which was strongly

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affected by population decline. The new inhabitants understand emptiness as an opportunity that offers the possibility to produce spaces of good life which are inherently based on the freedom they get from the emptiness to develop their own wishes and pursue their goals. Following Lefebvre I would like to describe the production of space of these new inhabitants in terms of the three dimensions of material production, production of knowledge and production of meanings. This theoretical approach allows for integrating the upgrade of buildings, the development of new projects like schools or cultural events as well as individual wishes, goals, values and meanings. The production of positive meanings is an important aspect to change the negative image of empty regions. 34.3 Population decline in Serbia – contemporary problems of small villages Milena Spasovski (Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade), Marija Martinovic, Danica Santic In the last four decades population of Central Serbia and Vojvodina was characterized by total depopulation, which is corresponded by demographic trends in most of European countries. The periphery (border) regions, as well as mountain regions, are highly affected by population decline. The causes of decline are deferent – industrialization and urbanization, which are connected with large scale of immigration, demographic devastation and shrinking process of settlements. This is particularly acute in the small villages with less than 100 inhabitants. According to official statistic data number of those villages is increased tenfold, from 80 in 1961 to 986 villages in 2011. Considering that more than half of those villages are less than 50 inhabitants and medium age of population is over 60 years, it is expected that in following decades those settlements will spontaneously extinct. This research aim is to determine the most effected regions in Serbia and reveals key issues of the revitalization of small villages and their sustainable development. 35 Identity & Meaning of Place (Room A12) Chair: Mirjam Klaassens (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) 35.1 Citizens with/out Belonging? Discourses of exclusion vs. lived spaces of belonging. Maike Didero (RWTH Aachen University) Discussions about migration and integration in Germany have increasingly been framed in ethno-cultural terms. Assumptions that immigrants from the Muslim World “naturally” find it harder to integrate themselves than migrants from other “cultural areas” point to the fact that culture is not only seen as something stable and territorialized but also defined in religious terms. A conception of Germany as based on exclusively Christian values means that a large number of native-born German citizens are defined as an out group and thus denied belonging to the country they live in.

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This paper explores the perspectives of those German residents who are interpellated by this discourse and discusses in what way it affects their everyday lives and identity constructions. The analysis draws on 40 narrative interviews with inhabitants of several cities in North-Rhine-Westphalia having a Moroccan family background. The paper shows that the respondent’s narrative identities are multifaceted and based on a large number of different aspects and categories, within which religion might – or might not – play a role. The relationship and “articulation” between discourses and specific subject positions is explored by drawing on a multi-level approach that highlights the interrelatedness of identities, representations and social structures. It is each respondent’s very specific translocational positionality that frames the way in which discourses, subject positions and identities are articulated. What becomes evident from the analysis is that discursively constructed spaces of exclusion are at cross-purposes with lived spaces of belonging. Of this arises conflict as well as the capacity and possibility to contest and transcend hegemonic lines of power. 35.2 The role of place in experiences of subjective wellbeing of older adults Linden Douma (Population Research Centre, University of Groningen) Like in many regions in the world, older adults (65+) are a rapidly growing segment of the population in the North East region of the province of Groningen (the Netherlands). Policymakers, social workers, and many others in this region face a major challenge, namely: supporting and enhancing people’s wellbeing in older age. In my research, I argue that experienced wellbeing is an individual outcome whilst embedded, produced, and interpreted within particular spatial contexts, and should be studied accordingly. A frequently used measure of wellbeing is Subjective Wellbeing (SWB), which can be defined as how an individual evaluates his or hers life situation overall. Older adults’ own valuations are especially valuable because they themselves have the most direct first-hand experience of their wellbeing. In addition, I argue that an older adult’s appraisal of his or her wellbeing, should not be detached from the spatial context in which one is growing older. Research has shown that arguably even more than for younger, healthier people, the local spatial environment is likely to be of great significance to older adults. As a result of individual and spatial variability, we might find considerable individual differences in the way places of everyday life can contribute to, as well as detract from, subjective wellbeing in older age. However, despite the vital role of the spatial environment in everyday life, place is hardly incorporated in existing research on subjective wellbeing. This research adds to existing knowledge in the field by providing a nuanced and contextualized perspective on experienced wellbeing of older adults. The aim of this research is to contribute to the understanding of the role of place in experiences of subjective wellbeing of older adults. Semi-structured interviews are conducted to explore older adults’ experienced wellbeing and their experiences with place at different spatial scales. 35.3 Geographical factors underlying change in national identity within the UK

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David Owen (University of Warwick) Recent decades have seen a weakening in the attachment of the population to British national identity in the aggregate. At the same time, the ethnic diversity of the population has increased dramatically as a result of high levels of international immigration. At first sight, it might be concluded that increasing ethnic diversity has caused a weakening in attachment to Britain. However, the picture is more complex. While attachment to Britain has been weakening, attachment to the individual nations of the UK has been increasing. Moreover, people from minority ethnic groups are more likely to express identification with Britain than white people. Identification with a single British identity is weaker among young adults and people in lower-status jobs and greater among managers, professionals and older people. The 2011 Census of Population included questions on citizenship and identity for the first time. This paper uses this data to explore the ways in which identification with Britain varies geographically and whether there is a relationship with the geographical patterns of prosperity, occupational specialisation, ethnic composition and migration trends. 36 Integration and Segregation (Room A7) Chair: Mark Ellis (University of Washington) 36.1 Geographies of diversity in England and Wales, 1991-2011 Gemma Catney (Dept. of Geography and Planning, University of Liverpool) The population of England and Wales is becoming more diverse. The most recent Census showed that the ‘non-White’ minority population of England and Wales now constitutes 14 per cent of the total, at around 7.9 million people – an increase of roughly five percentage points from 2001, and a growth of nearly 5 million since 1991. The spatial distribution of ethnic minorities in Britain has been a major focus of debates in both policy and media, and has been a topic of considerable academic interest. However, surprisingly little is known about where ethnic minorities reside, relative levels of concentration and dispersal, and how these have changed over time. This paper will chart changes to the geography of the increasing diversity of England and Wales between 1991 and 2011. Previous research has indicated minority population dispersal from urban centres, or ‘immigrant settlement areas’, and this presentation points to a decrease in segregation over the period. To understand properly the geography of ethnic group population distributions, local measures of segregation will be applied. These measures, to date not systematically explored in the context of ethnic diversity in Britain, account for spatial variation in the unevenness and exposure of each ethnic group, thus aiding a more meaningful understanding of the dynamics of ethnic geographies. The 2011 Census also demonstrated a considerable increase in the proportion of multiple ethnicity households, and in the number of individuals who identified with a mixed ethnic group category. These indications of intimate inter-group mixing at the individual and household level (the

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consequences, for example, of increased mixed partnerships and subsequent children) will also be discussed, in relation to the geography of this growth in mixing in England and Wales. As such, this paper will provide insight into the story of ‘segregation’ and mixing in England and Wales today. 36.2 Crossroads to integration? Residential and occupational segregation of Latin-Americans in Spain. Juan Galeano

(Centre d’ Estudis Demogràfics

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona),

Albert Sabater, Andreu Domingo

The migration flow coming from Latin America starred the Spanish immigration boom, with more than 5 million entries between 2000 and 2010. Two features singularized the Latin American case: first, the feminization of the flow, which has been explained as a consequences of the growing demand for care work, and second, the rapid trend towards territorial dispersion. Although the feminization of the flow has prompted various examinations of occupational disadvantage, little is known about the connection between occupational and residential segregation. Aim: We examine the correlation between these two forms of segregation in order to explain the sociospatial behavior of Latin Americans in Spain. Method: We employ the index of dissimilarity (D) as the standard measure to analyze the uneven distribution of members of two groups (native and Latin American) across a set of categories on both occupational and residential segregation. Two analyses will be undertaken in this paper, one relating residential segregation to occupational segregation of women, and a second relating residential segregation to occupational segregation of men. This allows us to isolate the effect of origin on residential and occupational outcomes. Data: We use Labor Force Survey and Local Census data from 2000 to 2010. Results: A negative correlation between occupational and residential segregation is likely to be found (i.e. spatial integration at the cost of occupational disadvantage), thus suggesting the different manifestations of a multidimensional phenomenon. 36.3 Ethnic Segregation in U.S. Cities, Suburbs, and Rural Communities, 1990-2010 Daniel T. Lichter (Cornell University and Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute), Domenico Parisi, Michael C. Taquino A fundamental objective of this paper is to broaden the spatial scale of comparative demographic studies of ethnic segregation by acknowledging the growing diversity of small cities and places outside of metropolitan urbanized areas. This study provides, for the first time, national estimates of residential segregation of African Americans, Hispanics, and Native American Indians in all places in 1990, 2000, and 2010, using block-level data from recent U.S. decennial censuses. The results reveal a singularly important conclusion: Levels and trends in recent patterns of rural segregation are remarkably similar to patterns observed in larger metropolitan cities. Like their big-city counterparts, blacks in rural communities highly segregated from whites – roughly 30 to 40 percent higher than the indices observed for Hispanics and Native Americans.

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Moreover, analyses of Hispanics in new rural destination communities in the South and Midwest suggest high segregation, especially in comparison with national estimates of Hispanic-White segregation. Finally, baseline multivariate models of spatial and temporal patterns of rural segregation reveal estimates that largely support the “place stratification” perspective of immigrant incorporation. Our study argues for a new macro-segregation perspective, one that broadens the spatial scale of segregation beyond its current focus on large metropolitan cities. 36.4 Moving on? Integration and onward migration of dispersed refugees in the UK Emma Stewart (University of Strathclyde) This paper aims to develop understanding of refugee integration in the UK by focusing upon onward migration after dispersal. UK dispersal policy began in 2000, as a result of the 1999 Immigration and Asylum Act. The rationale is to spread the burden of housing asylum seekers across the UK and discourage long-term settlement in the South East. The majority of literature on UK dispersal has critiqued the policy as part of restrictive and deterrent UK asylum apparatus as well as identifying negative impacts upon individuals removed from kinship, social networks and community organisations which can result in onward migration. Despite the aim of dispersal to determine local and national movements of asylum seekers, there has been surprisingly little attention paid to the role played by current UK dispersal policy in onward migration. An absence of information, including data on onward movement, means that refugees’ needs may remain under-reported and hamper adequate service provision. Based upon analysis of quantitative data sources, this paper aims to fill this knowledge gap. Whilst the UK Home Office ceases to collect data on refugees after they are granted status, the recently published New Survey of Refugees (2009) includes information on the long-term settlement of refugees in the UK. Additionally, data from the Refugee Integration and Employment Service (RIES) is explored to provide insights into the mobility patterns of refugees in the UK. Given the linkages between refugee migration and long-term settlement, this research aims to reflect upon the operation of UK dispersal policy for nearly a decade in order to theorise the connections between onward migration and refugee integration. 37 Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labour Markets: Student Migration II (Room A2) Chair: Inge Noback (University of Groningen) 37.1 Internal migration as a means of social mobility. Family resources and the decision to study in the Center-Northern regions among young Italian Southerners Roberto Impicciatore (University of Milan) Migration process from the southern to the central and northern regions still are a crucial aspect of the Italian society. Differences in the mode of entry in the labour

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market between South and North of Italy identify contexts which enhance differently the level of education achieved. In such a context, emigration may provide opportunities to use education as a means of access for the more prestigious jobs. However, migration for tertiary education has an additional cost and the family background may play a key role in this sense. The aim of this paper is threefold. Firstly, looking at the effect of parental resources on the decision to move to center-northern regions we want to test if the territorial mobility may be seen as part of a strategy of social mobility among children of lower classes. Secondly, we evaluate the relevance of the recent changes in the tertiary system in Italy (decentralization, increased autonomy, 3+2 reform) in the propensity to move in general and in the scheme of relation between territorial mobility and family background. The research strategy consists in the application of logistic regression models to the ISTAT surveys on educational and professional routes of upper secondary graduates (years 1998-2007). Our main results highlight an increased mobility for tertiary education between southern and center-north regions and an increasing effect of parental background and a decreasing effect of individual resources (in terms of higher school grade). Thus, on the one hand, mobility for study is an additional tool for an upward social mobility only among more educated parents, i.e. those with an higher trust in education and with more economic resources, on the other hand, changes in the university system in the last years emphasized the relevance of social background. 37.2 College Student Migration in the United States: Going with the Flow? Rachel Franklin (Brown University), Alessandra Faggian Analysis of state-to-state migration flows or flows along the urban-rural continuum has a long history not only in population geography but also in regional science and the larger field of demography. In particular, a stream of research has developed over the past decade that emphasizes the migration behavior of the college educated – the types of places they leave and go to and the economic impacts of their moving decisions, for example. This paper addresses an oft ignored component of migration of the college educated: college student migration. Using institution-level data on state of residence for college freshmen from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), this paper develops and analyzes state-to-state flows of college students. The focus is on the nature of the system as a whole as well as between pairs of states, with an emphasis on efficiency and spatial focusing. The analysis then proceeds with a comparison to state-to-state flows for the overall population. 37.3 The role of ethnicity in higher education migration decisions of young adults in Britain Nissa Finney (University of Manchester) In Britain, young adults of Asian – Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Indian - ethnic groups are less residentially mobile than young adults of other ethnic groups including White groups. However, the reasons for these differences in mobility and their implications are little understood. This presentation investigates the role of ethnicity in internal

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migration decisions by focusing on migration associated with Higher Education (university), which has traditionally been the ‘norm’ for young adults in Britain, and a common homeleaving pathway. The presentation examines: patterns of internal migration for higher education students; perceptions of residential norms in the transition to adulthood; how residential norms are influenced by ethnic identity; and how residential norms affect migration associated with Higher Education. This paper presents analysis of residential mobility using 2001 Census data and administrative data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA, data for 2009-2010), together with qualitative material from interviews with young adults. The results show that the ‘norm’ of the mobile student applies only to White undergraduates; that there are aspirations about housing and migration associated with University that are common across ethnic groups; and that ethnic identity has a role in migration decisions in terms of family relations and perceptions of place. The results suggest that there is a need to reassess understandings of student mobility to incorporate non-White perspectives; and that understanding internal migration in Britain requires attention to be paid to ethnic differences in residential norms. 38 International Migration and Education (Room A8) Chair: Sanne Boschman (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment) 38.1 "Migrants on the middle”: Educational training, labour market choices and everyday spatial practices Cristóbal Mendoza (UAM-Iztapalapa), Anna Ortiz-Guitart Literature on “migrants on the middle” is an emerging topic in the field of the migration studies. These migrants generally have medium to high levels of formal education and occupy intermediary job positions in labour market because of their age and/or relatively scarce labour experience. Specifically this paper focuses on a group of “migrants on the middle”, a collective of PhD foreign students who are temporarily living in Barcelona for completing their PhD education. The paper which is based on 30 semi-structured interviews with Latin-American and European (non-Spanish) PhD students focuses on their labour trajectories at the light of their future expectations. Even if migration is theoretically temporary, some interviewees express their intentions of work subsequently in the city, after finishing university. This desire is sometimes expressed in sceptical terms, since the current stressful financial situation of Spanish (and many European) universities cast shadows on their preferences. Yet, especially for Latin Americans, they consider that, if returning, they will get better job positions. Living abroad is regarded as a point of no return in young people’s transitions towards independence and adulthood. The paper explores the complex process of leaving home in relation with their everyday spatial practices and experiences. In this regard their everyday lives in Barcelona opens up previously unexpected personal choices, with the city offering many personal potentialities concerning alternative uses of

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public places. On the negative side, for some, the restrictions associated with Barcelona come from local identity which is felt as closed and defensive. 38.2 Youth international migration in Poland Alina Potrykowska (The Government Population Council of Poland) The phenomenon of migration, which is associated with the globalisation process of the world’s economy, is also reflected in Poland. The emigration of Poles indicates a tendency of temporary or seasonal departures, which is in accordance with the migration trends observed in Europe or throughout the world. The current migration processes and the consequences of implementing the Union’s principle of the free flow of workers, are not reflected in the state strategies. Their presence is required in light of the data concerning emigration potential and emigration resources, as well as the newest CSO demographic projections up to the year 2035. The treatment of the migration policy as a permanent element of the state’s development and modernisation strategy requires it to be based on solid knowledge regarding the nature and results of migration. Migration statistics are therefore very significant in this field. The migration process from and to Poland is therefore very complicated and, due to this, difficult to capture, and additionally its nature is very dynamic, as can be observed with the changes related to the worsening of the economic situation in the world. Due to the mobility of a seasonal character and the circulation of young persons, it is a problem to gather reliable data, especially considering that Poles have a right to travel in the EU without any barriers. This paper contains an analysis of youth migration, with a particular emphasis on features specific to 2009-2011, in relation to their dynamics and changes taking place in the previous years. 38.3 Stepping-stone migration of Polish graduates Aga Szewczyk (Loughborough University) In light of the perceived need for migrant flexibility and being 'on the move' in order to be successful, this paper adds to existing research on graduate migration, suggesting a conceptual framework of graduates’ stepping-stone migration across European Union and beyond. In a broader sense, stepping-stone migration is about searching for missing life elements rather than pursuing economic achievements only, which cannot be found in the amenities bundle of one place. Stepping-stone migrants always look forward, to multiple destinations, which is linked to attributes of migration destinations and their ability to support graduates’ personal, career and family trajectories development, allowing for the formation of various attachments. Moreover, stepping-stone migration perceived as temporary can become permanent, with a potential for circulation between migration destinations, but not indicating intentions for return to a home country. Although the research was carried out with Poles who had graduated from universities in Poland who migrated to the East Midlands region in the UK, the concept of a stepping-stone migration applies to a

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broader spectrum of graduate migration within European Union, and in particular Central and East of Europe. 38.4 Estimating international migration flows by level of education, 1995-2010 Nikola Sander (Vienna Institute of Demography (ÖAW)) Combining new estimates of the global flow of people moving over quinquennial time periods between 195 countries created at the VID/Wittgenstein Centre with the “Database on Immigrants in OECD and non-OECD Countries (DIOC)”, this paper provides new insights into the patterns and trends of skilled migration. Global migration flows for the period 1960 to 2010 were estimated from sets of successive place-of-residence by place-of-birth tables published by the World Bank and the United Nations Population Division. The assumption underlying the new flows-from-stock methodology is that the estimated country-to-country flow is equal to a change in the corresponding migration stocks between two time periods. At a global level, changes in all migrant stocks are considered simultaneously, and changes in migrant stock populations from births and deaths are accounted for. This data set provides a first-of-a-kind picture of the spatial structure of international migration flows between 195 countries over the period 1960 – 2010. The DIOC dataset allows the calculation of education differentials by age, sex, country of birth and country of current residence, based on data from the 2000 and 2006 rounds of population censuses. Education differentials in country-to-country migration flows are then estimated by linking migration flow estimates with the DIOC data on educational attainment levels among immigrants. Estimating the current education composition of migrants not only highlights substantial differences in the intensity and spatial pattern of migration by level of education, the estimates also improve the accuracy of multistate population projections that so far assumed the makeup of the migrant population was static or random. The Circos plots shown below effectively visualise differences in migration flow patterns between the population with less than primary education (top) and those with at least completed secondary education (bottom) in 2005-09. In many instances, migrants are better educated than the general populations in both the origin and destination countries. 39 The Role of Gender and Households in Mobility and Residence (Room A3) Chair: Thomas Cooke (University of Connecticut) 39.1 Who Moves to Whom? Gender Differences in the Distance to a Shared Residence Maria Brandén (Stockholm University), Karen Haandrikman Women often have a secondary role in couples’ migration decisions. For instance, women in couples more often move for the sake of their partner than men do, and gain less economically from moving. This paper investigates whether this male dominance in couple migration also applies to where newly formed couples decide to

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live. Are women more prone to move in with their new partner or to move over longer distances than their partner when moving in together? And whose socio-economic and demographic attributes dominate the decision on where to live? Using the Swedish PLACE database (1990-2008), we have access to high quality register data including 155,000 newly formed heterosexual couples. Its longitudinal character and excellent geographic attributes, especially location coordinates of each 100 by 100 meter square, enables us to capture the migration histories of individuals even prior to union formation. Those marrying or having a child together in 2008 were selected and subsequently followed back in time until the latest year the couple was not living together. At that year, we measured the migration distance as the Euclidean distance between the previous and the new address. Our main modelling strategy includes 1) OLS regression on the migration distance, by gender, and 2) multinomial logistics regressions on the propensity to either not move, move to a partner’s home, or move to a new joint home, by gender. We are mainly interested in the importance of labour market ties, social ties, and socio-economic and demographic characteristics. Preliminary results indicate that women are more likely to move to their partner’s home than vice versa, and are more likely to move a longer distance than their partner. The gender differences are especially pronounced for couples where the man is much older than the woman. 39.2 The Effects of Fertility Intentions on Short and Long Distance Moves Michael Feldhaus (University of Bremen), Sergi Vidal, Johannes Huinink The aim of this paper is to shed more light on the association between fertility and the relocation of the household. We address the question of how fertility intentions affect the probability of couples to move over short or long distances. We add to the literature on two grounds. Theoretically, following a life-course approach we discuss a model underpinning the assumption that behavioral intentions in one life domain (fertility) impact manifest behavior in another dimension of the life course (spatial mobility). Empirically we offer novel evidence on how residential mobility is used as a tool to accomplish fertility goals supporting an understanding of residential mobility as a byproduct of fertility decisions. We use data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) with rich longitudinal information on fertility intentions and realization as well as spatial mobility and spatial aspects of living arrangements of couples. Preliminary results confirm that fertility intentions have effects on the probability of short or long distance moves depending on whether the couple intent to have a first or an additional child. 39.3 The Spatial Distribution of Same-Sex Couples in Montevideo, Uruguay Ridhi Kashyap (European Doctoral School of Demography, CED, Autonomous University of Barcelona), Marcus Ebeling In recent decades, the modification of Census survey instruments that enable the identification of same-sex couples in household-based questionnaires across several countries in North and South America has provided a valuable demographic data

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source to examine a family type about which little was known until recently (Festy 2007). In the US, a growing literature has used decennial Census data since the 1990 round to examine the socio-demographic profile (Black et al. 2007; Gates 2001; Black et al. 2000), spatial distribution across and within cities (Gates and Ost 2004), and economic characteristics of households with gay and lesbian couples (Black et al. 2007). In contrast to the United States, questions that enable the statistical visibility of same-sex couples in Censuses in Latin America, have only recently become available (Goldani and Esteve 2013). As a result, systematic evidence on the socio-demographic profile and spatial distribution of gay and lesbian households in Latin America is comparatively limited. This paper provides an attempt to fill to this lacuna by examining intra-city spatial distribution of gay and lesbian in Montevideo, Uruguay using geo-referenced micro-data from the Uruguay 2011 Census to assess if: i) same sex households exhibit patterns of spatial clustering (at the level of census tracts) like has been noted in the US (Gates and Ost 2004; Black et al. 2002); ii) differences in spatial clustering between gay and lesbian households in Montevideo exist. US data suggest that patterns of spatial clustering are distinctive for gay and lesbian couples, which is a function of differing socio-demographic characteristics and the higher probability of childlessness among gay couples compared to lesbian couples (Gates and Ost 2004). Our paper examines the extent to which clustering patterns prevail at the neighbourhood level for same-sex couples broadly, as well as differences that exist between gay and lesbian couples in their spatial distribution, and through a spatial regression framework, the predictors that explain residential clustering differences between gay and lesbian households. 39.4 Commuter partnerships/families in six European countries Heiko Rueger (Federal Institute for Population Research, Germany), Norbert F. Schneider Increasing mobility demands within the labour market, changes within family and partnership patterns as well as increasing labour participation of women have fostered new and complex forms of work-related geographical mobility, such as commuter partnerships/families. Here, one partner shuttles between the family home and a second accommodation near the (far away) workplace (“Shuttlers”). Those specific forms of residential multilocality increasingly become important alternatives to family relocation. However, little is known about the spread and the socio-demographic characteristics of commuter partnerships/families. This paper analyses commuter partnerships/families in six European countries. The aims are to (a) present a typology that distinguishes Shuttlers from related concepts like Long-Distance-Relationships (LDR) and Living-Apart-Together (LAT) couples and to describe (b) the spread, (c) the characteristic spatiotemporal patterns in terms of mobility, absence and presence and (d) the socio-demographic characteristics of commuter partnerships/families. The sample derives from the “Job Mobilities and Family Lives in Europe” study and was randomly selected in Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Belgium and Switzerland in 2007. For this study, a total of 7220 individuals aged 25 to 54 years were interviewed with regard to their mobility behaviour, work and private life. Overall, the results

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indicate the growing importance of commuter partnerships/families in modern societies, but also reveal specific urban-rural differences. 40 Settlement of International Migrants (Room A901) Chair: Emma Lundholm (Centre for Population Studies/ Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University) 40.1 The effects of economic conditions, ethnic clustering, and anti-immigrant policies on the destination choices of the foreign born in the US Mark Ellis (University of Washington), Richard Wright, Matt Townley Economic conditions and amenities guide the destination choices of US-born movers. Immigrant movers respond to the same signals but not necessarily to the same extent because other logics enter into their migration calculus. Social capital bound up in ethnic networks and the cultural attraction of pre-existing ethnic communities likely influence the migration flows of immigrants. The patchwork geography of subnational anti-immigration policies that has emerged in the last decade may also divert foreign-born migration streams to locations where more inclusionary (less exclusionary) policies prevail. We measure the effect of these factors on the destination choices of immigrants and the US-born to identify points of similarity and difference in their responsiveness to destination conditions. The analysis focuses on the period 2005-10 to examine how this responsiveness has changed for both groups from the peak of the economic cycle (2005-6) through the Great Recession. We are especially interested in whether the recession and subnational anti-immigrant policies have spurred changes in immigrant destination choice that are reorienting immigrant settlement geography away from “new destinations” that emerged in the 1990s. 40.2 Patterns of emigration of young educated Poles Barbara Jaczewska (Institute of Regional and Global Studies, University of Warsaw) Proposed presentation concentrates on spatial mobility of young educated people from Poland, that have decided (especially after 2004) to migrate to one of the European Union countries. During the presentation most important surveys on spatial mobility of young Poles, destination countries, characteristic features will be briefly presented. Special emphasis will be put on the migration flow to the United Kingdom and the integration of young Poles within local communities. Presented information’s will be based on existing literature and my own studies on immigrants integration conducted in 2009-2010 in United Kingdom, as a part of the project "Migration Management in European Union. Immigrants integration policy on local, national and international level” financed from funds for science 2009-2011. 40.3 Dispersal and deprivation: Mapping asylum seekers in Britain since 1999. Sarah Lubman (University of Southampton)

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Since the implementation of the 1999 Immigration and Asylum Act, asylum seekers who require housing support have been 'dispersed' across the UK, with the intention of moving the focus of settlement away from London and its surrounding areas. It has been suggested in local level qualitative research that asylum seekers are being housed in deprived urban areas and as a result are experiencing social exclusion. This paper presents the current state of knowledge in this policy area before assessing the nature of the relationship between dispersal and deprivation at a national level, utilising Government asylum data alongside an Index of Multiple Deprivation to map local administrative units (Local Authorities) by their characteristics. Cluster analysis highlights a group of Local Authorities with relatively high density of dispersed asylum seekers and high deprivation levels, which can be identified as large cities north of London. A new longitudinal dataset which surveys refugees in their first 21 months after receiving leave to remain is finally presented with descriptive analysis tracking indicators of wellbeing and integration over time. 40.4 Housing Trajectory of Newcomers to Canada Bruce Newbold (McMaster University) It is well established that in the Canadian housing market, some immigrants move quickly to quality, affordable housing, while others struggle through both systematic and institutional barriers. While affordability remains the most prominent barrier to acquiring adequate housing, landing status, settlement location, and capability of attaining homeownership often mitigates immigrant experiences. For instance, refugees may be vulnerable group to poor housing, and immigrants settling in smaller, second-tier cities often improve their housing position quicker than those in less affordable housing markets such as Toronto and Vancouver. This paper utilizes Statistics Canada’s Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada (LSIC) – capturing housing experiences of immigrants from 2001 to 2005 – and investigates the factors associated with positive housing trajectories among newcomers (defined as the acquisition and movement towards suitable housing). A broad geographic scale is employed in examining housing trajectories by settlement type with respect to immigrant status. Logistic models are used to explore the relationship between positive housing trajectories in primary settlement locations (Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver) relative to that observed in second and third-tier locations. The results of this research are framed as advancing understanding in the Canadian immigrant housing discourse through providing a longitudinal perspective on immigrant housing trajectories, and how these vary across socio-demographic and economic factors. 41 Internal Migration and Transition to Adulthood (Room A900) Chair: Roberto Impicciatore (University of Milan) 41.1 Geographical context and transitions to adulthood Nicola Barban (University of Groningen), Clara H. Mulder

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During the last decades, there have been profound changes in partnering and childbearing in the United States, including changes in cohabitation and non-marital fertility. Young adults exhibit great heterogeneity in family formation behavior, with some young people postponing all family-related transitions, others making commitments (e.g., cohabitation and marriage), and still others making choices with enduring consequences (e.g., becoming a parent). According to the life course paradigm, life course transitions are made by individuals, on the basis of constraints and opportunities. Moreover, life course decisions are embedded in the social context in which individuals live. It is not completely clear, however, how much of the heterogeneity observed in the life course can be explained by the context in which young adults live and grow up. In this paper, we study the influence of the geographical neighborhood in shaping the transition of adulthood in a national representative sample of American young women. Using a rich longitudinal dataset (Add Health), we combine the geographical information at different geographical level (county, census tract and block level) with family formation trajectories. In addition, we link the geographical details to contextual indicators such as employment rate, racial composition and poverty rate. Life course trajectories from age 15 to age 30 are described via a sequence analysis in which the timing and the order of transitions to partnership and childbearing are taken into account. Our results indicate that the geographical context matters and explains part of the heterogeneity in the transition to adulthood of young women in the United States. Among contextual variables, school typology and economic indicators of the neighborhood contribute significantly to explain differences in life course trajectories. 41.2 Leaving home and destination of nest-leavers: Ethnicity, spaces and prices Aslan Zorlu (University of Amsterdam), Ruben van Gaalen This study examines ethnic differences in leaving home and the choice of destination accommodation. Using unique individual administrative panel data, we study mobility of the entire birth cohort 1983 living in the Netherlands. Different than previous studies, this paper involves the geographical location and quality of destination leaving arrangement in the analysis in an attempt to explain unexpected ethnic differences in leaving parental home. We show that early home leaving behaviour of ethnic minority youth, in particular Turkish and Moroccan young adults can be explained neither by evading from parental authority nor by an improvement in the quality of home. The analysis rejects the hypotheses that ethnic minority youth leaves home at younger ages than Dutch youth because they experience more intensive intergenerational conflict or catch up housing standard of their Dutch counterparts. 41.3 Coping with Family and Work Responsibilities in the Context of Rapid Urbanization: Strategies of Mothers of Young Infants in Accra, Ghana Philippa Waterhouse (University of Southampton)

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Increasingly research is being directed at urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa due to the opportunities and challenges that the rapid growth of cities present. The process of urbanization has had gendered consequences as economic, socio-cultural and environmental transformations have resulted in the greater intensification of women’s burdens compared to men’s. In the sphere of economic activity, profound changes in the social organization of work have taken place as well as a redefinition of females’ role as financial contributors to the household. Simultaneously, traditional patterns of familial reciprocity have weakened due to the dislocation of kin through migration and the changing of values with modernization. In such shifting contexts the combination of maternal productive and reproductive roles may be increasingly difficult which raises the question of how mothers cope with their multiple responsibilities. This research develops a greater understanding of the coping strategies adopted by mothers of young infants in Accra in Ghana,; one of the fastest growing cities in the West African region. Qualitative data, generated through in-depth interviews, was analyzed according to Hall’s (1972) typology of coping mechanisms. Whilst a diversity of coping strategies was found to be employed by mothers, the majority of these were of a structural role redefinition approach. Mothers are active agents involved in the shaping of the expectations of their work and family roles. Of primary importance for coping was the childcare arrangement utilized by mothers, which further analysis of the qualitative data suggested varied by infant age and maternal employment status. In order to quantitatively investigate variations in the adoption of childcare arrangements multinomial regression was performed on data from the Accra Urban Food and Nutritional Security Survey. Infant age and maternal migration and educational status were identified as statistically significant at the 5% level. 42 Mobility and Urbanization (Room A8) Chair: Sergi Vidal (University of Bremen) 42.1 Internal mobility of population in the context of suburbanization processes in the Krakow Metropolitan Area (Poland) Jadwiga Gałka (Jagiellonian University), Sławomir Kurek, Mirosław Wójtowicz Suburbanization is one of the many issues studied by researchers in the field of human geography and has been defined in a number of different ways. A broadly accepted way of understanding suburbanization assumes that it is a set of demographic, social, economic, and functional processes that affect urbanized spaces (within city limits and outside) on a number of different scales. In most cases, suburbanization is described as the migration of population from the central city to the suburban zone. If a city is assumed to be a discrete unit, then suburbanization is usually defined as an absolute or relative increase in suburban areas. The most basic symptom of suburbanization is an abrupt increase in the population of suburban townships at the expense of the central city. Suburbanization may also be defined as an array of social and economic changes taking place in the central city and its outlying areas.

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Suburbanization is currently a dominant process in Polish metropolitan areas. Differences in the degree of economic development of different metropolitan areas constitute a key factor determining the stage of the suburbanization process. The paper attempts to describe the dynamics of residential suburban development in the Kraków Metropolitan Area during the period of system transformation (1989 – now). The paper makes an attempt to answer the following two questions: 1) Just how dynamic are suburbanization processes in the Kraków Metropolitan Area (KMA)? 2) Are all KMA townships undergoing residential suburbanization at the same rate? The paper looks at migration data for selected townships for the 1995-2010 timeframe. It has been shown that residential suburbanization processes in the KMA began to intensify during the late 1990s and their intensity varies considerably across the metropolitan area. 42.2 Migration, urbanization and competitiveness: Which European regions are most vulnerable to the consequences of ageing? Nicole van der Gaag (NIDI), Joop de Beer, Rob van der Erf In this paper we examine whether regional differences in migration flows are related to urbanization and regional differences in economic performance. We distinguish urban, intermediate and rural regions, using an urban-rural classification of NUTS2 regions and extend this classification with the European competitiveness index 2006/07 to take into account a region’s ability to anticipate and adapt to internal and external economic and social challenges. We focus on the connection between migration and the potential labour force as a declining share of the working age population in the total population will lead to a reduction in economic growth. The aim is to determine what types of regions are most likely to be able to cope with the consequences of ageing, or, in other words, are most likely to be able to (partly) compensate a possible declining working age population by migration, and what regions are the most vulnerable ones. The main conclusion is that in urban-competitive regions migration most often can compensate the negative impact on the growth of the working age population due to cohort turnover, i.e. the balance between the inflow of young generations and the outflow of old generations. Urban-underperforming regions might be at risk, even in countries where international migration has been an important source of growth of the working age population. Intermediate regions, either competitive or underperforming, are less vulnerable to cohort turnover effects as a result of family migration. If cohort turnover will turn into negative values in these regions, however, it will be more difficult to compensate this by migration. Only few of the rural regions will be able to compensate a shrinking potential labour force by means of migration. Not surprisingly, rural-underperforming regions are the most vulnerable ones. 42.3 Migration, Population and Specialisation in German Medium Sized Cites: Exploring the Seemingly Well-Known Bernhard Koeppen (Universitaet Koblenz-Landau), Claus Schloemer

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A major character of Germany is its high urbanization rate in which small and medium size towns play a very important role, regarding their demographics as well as economic and societal impact. Surprisingly geography did not really have them in focus. Hence very few is known about small and medium sized towns, even for what concerns basic demographic issues. Quite obviously, research on mid-sized towns has been overshadowed by a mass of publications devoted to big German cities. This paper concentrates on migration related to medium sized cities in Germany. It is believed that the demographic structure in these towns is often shaped by economically and functionally dominant sectors, which also relates specific migration patterns to them. Hence it occurs that medium sized towns can be somewhat "specialized". Due to base effects, it is clear that in smaller units the relative impact of factors causing "specialization" is stronger than in bigger urban settings. On the other hand, their relevance and influence on downstream demographic issues is also higher than elsewhere. "Specialization" however, should not always be regarded as a result of urban or regional policy, but evolved during long and complex processes in the settlement's genesis. As an example Eastern Germany might serve, where transformation has had significant and long lasting impacts on urban demography. 42.4 The intra-urban mobility in Southern Europe: A case study in Madrid and Rome since the beginning of the XXI century Silvia Loi (CED - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and La Sapienza Università di Roma), Joaquín Recaño, Oliviero Casacchia, Massimiliano Crisci The intra-urban mobility is still one of the least known aspects in migration studies in most countries. In this paper, we will analyze the demographic and spatial characteristics and the contextual and individual determinants of intra-urban mobility in two major cities of Southern Europe, Madrid and Rome. Since the beginning of the new century, both cities have been subjected to intense growth processes associated with foreign immigration. This simultaneity of immigration processes, the role of exercise as both state capitals and, finally, the availability of sources of information of a similar nature to the population registers, such as the Padrón Continuo in Spain and the Anagrafe in Italy, become exceptional laboratories for comparative analysis of intra-urban mobility. The period corresponds to 2002-2011, years for which we have the micro-data on changes of residence of both cities. This information includes various sociodemographic and spatial units that identify the source and destination of movements of address changes. Initially we will compare the demographic structure of intra-urban mobility with the changes affecting internal migration flows to other cities in the rest of Spain and Italy; we will continue at a urban level analysing the demographic characteristics of Rome and Madrid by area of origin-destination (demographic profiles and synthetic indicators of mobility) in which nationality / country of birth will be high; then we will address the evolution of trade matrix, to

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eventually build multivariate statistical models in order to explain individual and contextual determinants affecting this type of mobility. 42.5 Internal Migration, Mobility and Exclusion in Urban India: An Examination Anil Kumar Jha (Government Girls P.G. College, Morar (Jiwaji University), Gwalior) India is steadfastly urbanizing and in just under two decades its urban population is likely to approximately double to reach 600 million, a figure twice as high as its present urban population. Much of this growth will be due to the migration of people of economically weaker sections from rural areas which will further exacerbate the issue of urban poverty. If India aspires to be an equitable society where the void between the “haves” and “have-nots” is diminished it will have to ensure the inclusion and integration of the poor migrants into its urbanization agenda. From a policy perspective this is a critical opportunity as urbanization lends a new chance to correct some of India’s developmental errors. It can therefore be proposed that the state and its citizens reflect on the processes and structures through which exclusion is created, propagated, maintained or even overlooked in urban India so as to identify mechanisms with which to alleviate it or to build social activism around it. In the context of inequality, it is the rural-urban divide that readily comes to mind. While the bulk of scholarly work focusing on the “haves” and “have-nots” in India has traditionally focused on the rural, there is comparatively little that we know and understand about its dimensions and mechanics in the urban context. This somewhat neat categorization of India into the rural versus the urban also overlaps with stereotypical labels of “backward” and “modern.” This paper identifies key knowledge gaps on the issue of migration and commuting workers in India. First, it is needed to understand how the sources of income of rural households in India have changed over time. We need to be able to quantify the importance of remittances by migrants and economic contributions of commuting workers as a source of income. Second, we need to understand why estimates of various types of migration flows, in particular short migration flows, captured by official data are at variance with localized studies. It is important to identify and plug the source of this disconnect. Third, we do not fully understand the extent to which rural-urban migration contributes to the phenomenon of urbanization of poverty. And finally, given the concern over exclusionary urbanization we need to understand the legal and structural impediments to migration. 43 Population Projection Methods (Room A3) Chair: Andries de Jong (PBL) 43.1 How confident can we be in the projections of the older population of the United Kingdom? Philip Rees (University of Leeds)

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This paper responds to a request by Lord Filkin, the Chair of the House of Lords Selective Committee on Public Service and Demography, made at the 16 October 2012 Hearings of Oral Evidence, second session, namely to supply an assessment of confidence in the projected numbers of older persons for the UK. The paper reviews current methods of establishing confidence through probabilistic projection and the probabilistic projections for the UK carried out by academics, national statistical offices and international statistical agencies. However, none of these sources could deliver reasonable confidence intervals, required by the Committee by the end of 2012. In order to answer the Select Committee’s question, an alternative method was proposed that used a set of recent plausible projections of the UK population to form a distribution of outcomes that could deliver population ranges with known probability. Nineteen projections were pooled and used to compute confidence bands around a median projected population for each age group. The UK population aged 65+, 10.2 millions in 2010, is projected to 18.3 million in 2050, with a 95 confidence that it will lie between 21.3 and 15.7 million. We can be more confident about the numbers for the younger elderly (aged 65-84) than for the older old (aged 85+). We cannot be very confident about the future numbers of centenarians. The population of centenarians is projected to be 242 thousand in 2050 compared with 12 thousand in 2010 but the 95% confidence band stretches from 426 thousand to 59 thousand. Discussion in the final part of the paper addresses the issue of how much confidence we can have in the confidence band estimates. 43.2 Innovations in International Migration for use in Global Population Projections Nikola Sander (Vienna Institute of Demography (ÖAW)), Guy Abel, Samir K.C. Advances in projecting international migration have been hindered by a lack of adequate data. Consequently, international projection-making agencies commonly use simplistic assumptions of net-migration measures derived as residuals from demographic accounting. However, past net migration can be often volatile and are known to introduce inaccuracies when projecting populations (Rogers, 1990). This paper presents a set of global population projections to 2060, focusing on alternative international migration assumptions. Expert-based assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration developed for the new edition of the Wittgenstein Centre (WiC) global population projections are combined to project each country’s population. An earlier version of these projections by age, sex, and also educational attainment was published by Lutz and colleagues in 2007. We overcome the limitations of using net-migration models and zero convergence assumptions by drawing on a first-of-a-kind set of estimated quinquennial bilateral migration flows developed by Abel (2012). Using a multiregional cohort-component projection model, alternative future migration trends are explored based on a set of ‘what-if?’ scenarios. Our results highlight differences in the future level and distribution of populations around the globe between a constant-rates, a convergence to zero-net, a zero flows and two ‘what-if’ scenarios.

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43.3 A Method of County-Level Population Forecasting Mario Reinhold (Niedersächsisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Lower Saxony Institute for Economic Research)), Stephan Lothar Thomsen Population projections allow decision-makers to assess prospective demands and to adapt public and private infrastructure to latest demographic trends. However, virtually all approaches remain on the state level although most infrastructure planning is done at a local level. It is crucial to respond locally to demographic tendencies since there is a multitude of applications where demand for public infrastructure is spatially unequally distributed (e.g. hospitals, schools). Using annual population data for 46 counties in the German state of Lower Saxony between 1971 and 2012, we developed a model that combines an averaged projection method with the standard cohort-component method. This design of population projection provides a fusion of the advantages of both methods, i.e. detailed gender- and age-specific information of the cohort-component-model and a high small-scale accuracy of the averaged projection. The model is based on various cohort-component methods using several base periods correcting the county-level forecast for a specific population size (e.g. constant share, shift-share and constant size) and pure cohort-component models. We then conduct a year-, gender- and age-wise arithmetic averaging over these results to obtain our final county level population projections. These results are investigated regarding the effects of differences in population size, in the magnitude and sign of population growth and the length of forecast horizon on forecast errors. In this analysis the accuracy of the age structure and certain age structures are highlighted since regional demands not only vary spatially but also age-specifically. We show an advantageous accuracy of a combination of several techniques. The presented technique warrants comparatively low input data preparation and labour resources. At the same time it guarantees precision and detailed information on a local level. 43.4 A probabilistic population and household forecasting model for subnational regions, with application to Sydney, Australia Tom Wilson (The University of Queensland) Population forecasts are inherently uncertain, and as a general rule the smaller the population, the greater the uncertainty surrounding its demographic future. Over the last two decades demographers have progressively refined probabilistic forecasting models to produce estimates of uncertainty associated with demographic forecasts. However, nearly all this work has been restricted to national scale examples and to forecasts of population only. This paper introduces a probabilistic model which is suitable for subnational regions and which produces both population and household forecasts. It was created with a view to informing metropolitan planning, and includes a number of simplifications to reduce input data requirements and run-times relative to ‘standard’ probabilistic models. It is illustrated with an application to the Greater Sydney region for the period 2011-51. The paper concludes by arguing that instead of assuming there to be one inevitable future demographic trajectory, metropolitan

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planning should consider the plausible envelope of demographic futures, and plan desired futures within it. 44 Spatial Implications of International Migration (Room A2) Chair: Salut Muhidin (Macquarie University)

44.1 A place called home: Residential choices of highly-skilled migrants in the Netherlands and the role of local amenities Sanne Boschman (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment), Pascal Beckers In the international competition for highly-skilled labour, countries, regions and cities are aiming to become more attractive for this group of migrants to fill labour market shortages. However, national and EU immigration policies in this regard have not yet shown the intended effect as European countries manage to attract and retain less highly-skilled migrants than was expected. Within the Netherlands, policymakers at both national and lower regional levels mention the local business and living environment as important factors for attracting and retaining this group of people. Therefore policies are designed to create local living environments that are attractive for highly skilled migrants. To create an evidence base for effective policy making, it is highly relevant to know whether the availability of local amenities actually matters in determining the attractiveness of regions for these migrants, and if so, which amenities are important. To answer this question, we make use of register data from the Netherlands Statistics on the residential locations at postal code level of all highly-skilled migrants who entered the Netherlands between 1999 and 2008. Moreover, this dataset contains relevant characteristics at the neighbourhood level, such as the quality of the housing stock and the availability of local amenities, as well as relevant amenities and labour market characteristics at the regional level. We define highly-skilled migrants using a relative income criterion accounting for the age of the individual, this definition is developed by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and VU University. We estimate a negative binomial model to test which characteristics of neighbourhoods and regions are associated with high inflows of highly-skilled migrants at the neighbourhood level, when labour market characteristics are taken into account. 44.2 The Changing Immigrant-Native Division of Labor across U.S. Regional Labor Markets Virginia Parks (University of Chicago) The changing racial and ethnic division of labor driven by immigration raises concerns about the competition effects between immigrant and native-born workers. Competition, however, depends upon the co-location of immigrant and native workers in similar industries and jobs. If competition obtains, displacement of one group will result. In the absence of displacement, convergence of these two groups of workers in

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the labor market may signal processes other than competition. Research has found evidence of convergence absent displacement effects in some industries among women workers, indicating the stronger effect of gender over nativity as a sorting mechanism in the labor market. This study extends this research on the gendered inflections of the immigrant-native division of labor by examining changes in the segregation between immigrant and native workers by industry in 1990, 2000, and 2010 across the ten largest regional labor markets in the U.S. Specifically, this study examines how gender mediates the immigrant-native division of labor and how the convergence patterns of immigrants and natives into similar jobs varies by geography. 44.3 Spatial Dimensions of New Migration Flows to Switzerland Ilka Steiner (I-DEMO, University of Geneva), Philippe Wanner The ratification of the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons between Switzerland and the EU and the economic growth encountered by Switzerland at the turn of the XXIth century increased migratory flows to Switzerland. Migration from EU/EFTA countries more than doubled between 2002 and 2008 (from 53 700 to 114 000). Nevertheless, not only the extent of the flows but also the social and professional characteristics of migrants changed. On the aggregated level and regarding education and qualification, recent immigrants tend for example to be positively selected. However, according to Gorter et al. (1998), the distribution of these flows and therefore also their impact vary between regions. This new migration is also strongly linked to the development of highly specialized activities in different parts of the country (finance in Zurich and Geneva, pharmaceutics in Basel, etc.) In this context, our paper raises the question "What factors determine the distribution of recent immigrants among the Swiss regions"? First, we assess the general factors explaining the recent migrant’s settlement in a particular region, using statistical approaches already attested in other contexts (Van Der Gaag and Van Wissen 2001). Second, we compare the regional socio-demographic and professional characteristics of these recent migrants to the resident population of Swiss and foreign nationality, in order to illustrate spatial selectivity of immigration in different regions. Our analyses rely on the Swiss Labor Force Survey (SLFS) 2011. Immigrant's characteristics are compared between the spatial mobility regions (MS) of the country. The target population are foreign-born migrants aged 15 years or more and arrived after June 2002 in Switzerland. Obtained results confirm the regional specificities of the migrant’s profiles, by various reasons, as for example the federalist political organization, linguistic specificities, a diversity of economic structures and fields of activity as well as the positions on the center-periphery scale of the regions. 44.4 International students and the region. The example of Goettingen/Germany Rebecca Tlatlik (University of Kassel), Beatrice Knerr

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There is a growing demand for highly skilled labour force in Germany. The ability of regions to attract sufficient labour force becomes more and more important, considering the aging and shrinking working population. It can be assumed that places with universities have an advantage in attracting highly skilled labour because of the continuous inflow of students. Among them, one can find more and more international students. The focus of this ongoing study is to understand which factors have an influence on the intention of international students to stay or leave the region. Based on the creative class theory a case study was conducted among around 250 international Master and PhD students at the University of Göttingen, Germany. Using descriptive statistics, we established that the majority of international students can imagine staying in the region after graduation. Interestingly, most of them are not familiar with regional companies. Our first descriptive results show that international students do not have sufficient knowledge about regional companies. This implies that efforts have to be made to promote the publicity of regional companies in order to retain international talents. Furthermore specific determinants that have an impact on the migration decision of international students will be investigated through statistical methods, e.g. Probit analysis. Our findings will shed light on the question of how to retain international students after graduation in the region. 45 Spatial Variations in Fertility (Room A7) Chair: Hill Kulu (University of Liverpool) 45.1 Spatiotemporal variation in fertility transition in Algeria Mohammed Bedrouni (University Saad Dahleb Blida, Algeria) Fertility level in Algeria has significantly decreased through the last three decades. Total fertility rate has declined from 5.4 live births according to Algerian Fertility Survey (1986) to reach about 2.4 (PAPFAM 2002). A slight recovery of fertility was observed during the decade 2000. The latest census (2008) gives the value of 2.74 live births. Demographic research conducted in Algeria has largely been focused on analyzing fertility at the national or sectorial level in one point in time depending on data of a specific survey. Few studies (Z. Ouadah-Bedidi 2005, M. Bedrouni 2007) have privileged spatial approach and used data of two censuses (1987, 1998). It confirmed the persistence of regional differences in fertility. This paper has extended analysis in the same vein by integrating recent census's data (2008). Spatiotemporal statistical methods must be used to identify some determinants of the spatial and temporal differentials in fertility. This study aims to (1) identify some cultural, socio-economic, demographic, and geographic

determinants of the spatial and temporal differentials in fertility; (2) appreciate the differences that may emanate from different rates of fertility

trends recorded by the different provinces (departments);

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(3) identify provinces that experienced a recovery in fertility and those that continue to lower their levels.

45.2 The evolution of cohort fertility in Spanish provinces. An overview over the last 40 years Alessandra Carioli (University of Groningen and NIDI), Leo van Wissen This paper explores through means of formal Demography the evolution at provincial level of cohort fertility. The results of the analysis consist of cohort fertility rates by age and parity (1-5+) at provincial level for the 1940-1998 generations of Spanish women. The first part of the study shows how the entrance of Spain into the Second Demographic has reshaped Spanish fertility, reducing overall fertility. The long time series of data allows for a unique and thorough understanding of fertility trends since it starts well before the Second Demographic transition, capturing the years of the desarrollo-Spanish economic miracle. The provincial approach allows to understand the contribution to this overall decrease as distinct geographic areas have unique trends and contribute differently to cohort fertility. Birth order and duration between births analysis suggest a clear spatial patter of fertility with outliers, such as North-Eastern and North-Western regions. The second part of the paper analyses the last 10 years and in particular addresses the issue of fertility postponement and catching up, especially in light of the recent economic crisis. The results suggest once again clear spatial patterns. Certain regions, such as Catalonia, denote catching up of fertility up to the third birth order, together with a slight decrease in mean age at childbearing, whereas outliers, such as the Canary Islands, continue to register substantial decrease in fertility rates. The data used for the analysis come from INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica and the Centre d’Estudis Demografics of the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona. 45.3 Approaches to understanding sub-national spatial variations in fertility: the example of Britain Zhiqiang Feng (University of St Andrews), Elspeth Graham, Francesca Fiori Several recent studies have reported systematic patterns of fertility within different European countries, suggesting that spatial variations in fertility arise from multiple factors, both compositional and contextual. Our previous research has demonstrated similar patterns within Britain. While issues of scale and selective migration have been addressed, there remains a need for a more critical interrogation of the methodologies used to identify geographies of fertility. In this paper we extend previous research by comparing two different approaches to understanding sub-national spatial variations in fertility, using the example of Britain. We focus on the local scale as our working hypothesis is that local cultures and social learning processes affect child bearing behaviour. The analyses use birth registration data (2000-2002) and 2001 census data for lower super output areas (data zones in Scotland, average population 1500), which allow us to capture immediate social contexts. First, we use ordinary least squares regression models to establish

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relationships between demographic and socioeconomic determinants. Findings indicate significant residual geographical variation. We then employ a local statistical indicator, the G* statistic, to identify high, average and low fertility clusters. Although interesting spatial patterning is revealed, we argue that this approach is limited by its underlying assumption that all contextual effects are systematic rather than related to particular places. Therefore, secondly, we use geographically weighted regression to determine whether relationships between socioeconomic factors and fertility rates vary across local areas. We then examine the geographical distribution of the residuals. Our results suggest that ‘place’ is also important to understanding geographies of fertility, at least at the local scale. In comparing these two approaches, we argue that both systematic variations and the effects of particular places should be considered when investigating sub-national variations in fertility. 45.4 The Changing Relationship between Fertility and Economic Development: Evidence from 337 Sub-National European Regions Jon Fox (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Sebastian Kluesener, Mikko Myrskylä Recent research based on national level data has determined that the relationship between development and fertility becomes positive at high levels of development (Myrskylä et al., 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2010). So far it is unknown whether this U-shaped association can also be detected in sub-national regional data. If so, this indicates that highly developed countries not only experience fertility increases, but that within these countries the most developed regions are taking the lead in this trend. In addition, the regional perspective allows singling out the most developed regions of a country as these might already be on an upward fertility trajectory while the national numbers still report a decline. Regional evidence of a U-shaped association would therefore deliver further support that at high levels of development, we are in fact witnessing a substantive change in how fertility and economic development are related. We investigate the development-fertility association by analyzing data from 337 regions in 21 European countries. We focus on Europe as most countries which experienced a turn-around in fertility trends are situated there, and because of the availability of high quality time-series of regional data on total fertility rates and per capita GDP. We exploit the regional level data in a country-by-year fixed-effects model, which controls for time-varying, country-level effects that often confound other research. Results based on the period 1996-2006 indicate that the relationship between fertility and income is also convex at the regional level, with the turnaround occurring at a per capita GDP of about $32,000 year 2000 U.S. dollars. In a next step, we will extend our time coverage to the most recent years, thereby allowing us to assess potential effects of the great recession on the association. 46 Small Areas and Population Subgroups (Room A12) Chair: Darren Smith (Loughborough University)

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46.1 Student Populations and Urban Change: Diverse Geographies of Studentification Stacey Balsdon (Loughborough University) This paper aims to explore some preliminary findings from my doctoral thesis which aims to examine how different sub-groups of the student population are implicated in processes of studentification. Concepts of studentification are often associated with visualisations of the ‘traditional student’ (Chatterton, 1999), however this paper will suggest that the student population is heterogeneous in nature and, therefore, are involved in studentification in different ways. The case study of Loughborough, East Midlands has been explored using a mixed-methods approach of interviews and Higher Education Statistics Agency data. Initial results reveal different geographies of studentification for different sub-groups of students identified along various lines of important social differentiation. It is argued that a more nuanced understanding of students and the diversity of the student population is required. 46.2 Looking for the causes of Spain's East-West urban area growth differences: Spatial and factor analysis (1970-2011) Fernando Gil-Alonso (University of Barcelona), Jordi Bayona-i-Carrasco, Isabel Pujadas-Rúbies From a geographical perspective, these last decades, Spanish urban areas have constantly expanded. This urban sprawl has broken the traditional compact city model. However, from a demographic point of view, the picture is not as simple as Spanish urban areas have been through a series of growth and stagnation periods with significant spatial differences depending on their size, their geographical position, their suburbanization stage, and, finally, on how exposed they were to international migration flows. The present crisis has complicated matters even more, as it suddenly interrupted the demographically expansive period which cities were undergoing since mid-1990s due to large foreign immigration inflows. However, Spanish urban areas growth speed has not been affected by crisis in the same way. In this paper, our analysis covers 64 Spanish urban areas from 1970 to 2011. In each of the cases, core city and periphery growth levels have been separately analysed to enable the construction of an urban growth typology. With this four-decade analysis we expect to obtain long-term spatial trends and analyse the causes which determine them. This paper firstly describes how the population of Spanish urban areas has increased this last forty years and then it builds, through cluster analysis, a spatial typology grouping urban areas which have similar growth trends. Finally, it searches, through factor analysis, the main socio-economic causes behind the spatial/demographic patterns. Descriptive results show that two phenomena, suburbanization and foreign immigration, are the main elements defining recent urban growth transformations and the main drivers of a clearly defined spatial pattern in which highly-growing eastern urban areas would be clearly opposed to lower growing western ones. Preliminary analytical results demonstrate that this east-west divide would be manly caused by the

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deep differences in the economic/labor market structures of the respective urban areas. 46.3 Demographic Sustainability and Local and Regional Development: the Case of Portugal Maria de Nazaré Roca (e-GEO Research Centre for Geography and Regional Planning, FCSH-UNL, Lisbon), Zoran Roca, Ana Rita Martins The systemic approach to sustainable development prevails among researchers and professionals in spatial development policy and planning matters. In this, sustainability is most usually perceived as a balanced system of interacting environmental, economic and social subsystems, in the long run. Yet, such definition has an important shortcoming: it omits demographic sustainability, which is, considered a part of the social subsystem. However, population is the basic structural framework of both society and economy in a given territory. This calls for introducing the demographic subsystem as a part of the sustainability system. In this paper a conceptual model is brought forward for the study of demographic sustainability, called Sustaindemo, which comprises two equally important dimensions: quantitative and qualitative, in constant interaction. According to the Sustaindemo model, a territory is quantitatively sustainable when an optimal relation among sexes and age groups is achieved relative to their size and growth. Furthermore, a territory is demographically sustainable in qualitative terms when an optimum level is reached between labour force participation, education and skills of a population. This conceptual model was applied to the Portuguese territory with the aim to develop a typology of municipalities - i.e., the basic local governemnt units for spatial planning in Portugal - according to the level of their (quantitative and qualitative) demographic sustainability. The statistical methods used to produce the typology were factor analysis and cluster analysis. The variables "natural change", "migration", "sex", "age", "place of birth", and "population distribution" were selected to represent the quantitative dimension of demographic sustainability. The socio-economic variables "level of education", “type of skills”, "labour participation", "occupational status", "socioeconomic group", and "hours of work" served to characterize the qualitative dimension. The variables were collected for the last two inter-census periods, that is, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011. 46.4 Operationalizing the peri-urban concept: a probabilistic approach to the Swiss case Anthe van den Hende (Geography Department, University of Geneva) The peri-urban, also referred to as exurbia, urban (-rural) fringe, counter-urbanisation, urban sprawl or rurbanisation among others, has been conceptualised by many scholars. However the concept of peri-urban does neither have a universal use, nor does it have an exact meaning. Numerous different characteristics have been

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attributed to it such as large mixture of land uses, location on the edges of the cities, high mobility (commuters), rural life style and high end housing. This scientific haze of characteristics is not a problem in itself, but is not compatible with an administrative typology which assigns to each municipality a single dominant functional type. Every municipality has a large range of characteristics, some of them more dominant than others, making it unlikely that each municipality only belongs to a single type or concept. This is nonetheless the practice of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for their municipal typology. A suppler approach to the municipal typology needs to be taken to incorporate the many different characteristics attributed to the peri-urban within the administrative typology, for the aim of studying residential trajectories. This entails a methodological shift from deterministic to probabilistic, with a multinomial logistic regression, providing probabilities per municipality of pertaining to each administrative type. The results show that there are indeed other types in the Swiss municipal typology that are highly correlated with the peri-urban, as their similarities were previously hidden by other dominant characteristics. It is likely that the inhabitants use this space in the same way as peri-urban regions, with high commuter levels for example. This type of analysis enables us to use a more inclusive concept of peri-urban for the local Swiss case, which aids in the analysis and understanding of residential trajectories to and from the peri-urban. 46.5 1901 and 1911 British Population Censuses: early 20

th century household

composition and structure in part of London. Nigel S. Walford (Centre for Earth and Environmental Sciences Research, Kingston University) The wealth of information held in historic-geographic sources has fuelled an interest in exploring these data within a GIS-framework in recent years and has resulted in the creation of national Historical GIS projects. Although historical records bring their own problems, they may offer the opportunity to explore questions at the micro-geographical scale that are difficult to address with contemporary data on account of access and confidentiality issues. The research on which this paper is based is seeking to unlock the socio-economic and demographic geography of London in the first decade of the 20

th century through micro-scale analysis and to make comparisons with

the current situation by aggregating historical data to current spatial units. This paper makes a preliminary incursion into exploring historical records from the 1901 and 1911 British Populations Censuses at the level of households and individuals for part of London. It outlines the techniques employed to geocode the historical census records in conjunction with contemporary geospatial data and reveals patterns of social differentiation in Edwardian hitherto concealed by published aggregate statistics.

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Organizers Special Sessions

Population Decline

Tialda Haartsen and Hans Elshof, University of Groningen

Healthy Ageing

Eva Kibele, Mirjam Klaassens, Louise Meijering, Population Research Centre,

University of Groningen

Global Population Growth, Environmental Change and Migration

Frank Swiaczny, Federal Institute for Population Research, Germany

Highly Skilled Migration between the Global North and South

Ajay Bailey and Clara H. Mulder, Population Research Centre, University of

Groningen

Arctic Population Geography: Migration in and out of the Circumpolar North

Kim van Dam and Tekke Terpstra, Arctic Centre, University of Groningen

Internal Migration of Graduates and Regional Labour Markets

Viktor Venhorst, Sierdjan Koster, Inge Noback, University of Groningen, Rachel

Franklin, Brown University, US

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Participants Index

Name and Affiliation Session

Abuladze, Liili, Tallinn University 1

Alamel, Alexis, Loughborough University 31

Alekseev, Alexander, Lomonosov Moscow State University 7, 32

Antipova, Ekaterina, Belarusian State University 21

Bailey, Ajay, Population Research Centre 3, 9, 32

Bailey, Neil, University of Southampton 31

Baizan, Pau, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and ICREA 3, 26

Balsdon, Stacey, Loughborough University 46

Barban, Nicola, University of Groningen 2, 41

Bauer, Ramon, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Human Capital, VID ÖAW

6, 25

Beckers, Pascal, Radboud University Nijmegen 16, 44

Bedrouni, Mohammed, Université Saad Dahleb de Blida 45

Bell, Martin, The University of Queensland Keynote speaker,

4, 5

Bennett, Rachel, University of Southampton 28, 33

Boschman, Sanne, Delft University of Technology 38, 44

Bourmeche, Fathi, Faculty of Letters and Humanities 26

Brandén, Maria, Stockholm University 11, 39

Cámara, Antonio D., Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics 23

Carioli, Alessandra, NIDI and University of Groningen 30, 45

Catney, Gemma, University of Liverpool 36

Champion, Tony, Newcastle University 29

Chand, Raghubir, Kumaon University, Nainital 11

Charles-Edwards, Elin, University of Queensland 4, 5, 33

Cohen, Nir, Bar Ilan University 3

Collignon, Beatrice, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne 8

Conkova, Nina, NIDI 20, 27

Cooke, Thomas, University of Connecticut 2, 39

van Dam, Kim, University of Groningen 8

Dhuruvan, Thulasimala, Queen Marys College, University of Madras 17

Didero, Maike, RWTH Aachen University 35

Dijkstra, Aletta, University of Groningen 7, 13

Douma, Linden, University of Groningen 35

Eilmsteiner-Saxinger, Gertrude, Austrian Academy of Sciences 8

Ekamper, Peter, NIDI 23

Ellis, Mark, University of Washington 16, 36, 40

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Elshof, Hans, University of Groningen 12, 34

Feng, Zhiqiang, University of St Andrews 45

Fielding, Tony, University of Sussex 16

Findlay, Allan, University of St Andrews 17

Finney, Nissa, University of Manchester 10, 25, 37

Föbker, Stefanie, University of Bonn 15

Franklin, Rachel, Brown University 12, 31, 37

van der Gaag, Nicole, NIDI 42

Galeano, Juan, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics 36

Galjaard, Roos, Bureau PAU 2

Gil-Alonso, Fernando, University of Barcelona 29, 46

Goeler, Daniel, University of Bamberg 32

Goodwin-White, Jamie, UCLA Geography 24

Green, Anne, University of Warwick 15

Grigoleit, Grit, Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg 3

Guadagno, Eleoenora, MIgrinter CNRS Université de Poitiers 14

Haandrikman, Karen, Stockholm University 6, 17, 39

Haartsen, Tialda, University of Groningen 19, 28

van Ham, Maarten, Delft University of Technology 6, 18

Harkink, Marieke, Bureau PAU 20

Harper, Sarah, Oxford University Keynote speaker

Heins, Frank, Irpps-Cnr 18

van de Hende, Anthe, Université de Genève 46

Herbers, Daniël, University of Groningen 1

Hoekveld, Josje, University of Amsterdam 12, 21

Hutter, Inge, University of Groningen 32

Imeraj, Lena, Vrije Universiteit Brussel 10

Impicciatore, Roberto, University of Milan 37, 41

Jaczewska, Barbara, University of Warsaw 4

Jang, Bohyun Joy, The Ohio State University 16

Janssen, Fanny, University of Groningen 7, 13

Jha, Anil Kumar, Govt. Girls P.G. College, Morar 42

de Jong, Andries, Planbureau voor de leefomgeving 43, 21

Kappler, Melanie, KIT 18

Kashyap, Ridhi, Center for Demographic Studies 39

Ke, Wen-Li, National Immigration Agency 15

Kibele, Eva, University of Groningen 7, 13, 18

Kim, Jun-Hyung, Myongji University 25

Klaassens, Mirjam, University of Groningen 1, 35

Kluesener, Sebastian, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 30, 42

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Koeppen, Bernhard, Univ. Koblenz-Landau 42

Kooiman, Niels, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) 19, 21

Koster, Sierdjan, University of Groningen 4, 16

Kõu, Anu, University of Groningen 9, 15

Kreft, Daniel, University of Rostock 7

Krisjane, Zaiga, University of Latvia 32

Kronenberg, Kristin, Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development ILS 24

Kuehntopf, Stephan, Federal Institute for Population Research 11

Kuiper, Jisca, University Medical Center Groningen 1

Kulcsar, Laszlo, Kansas State University 21

Kulu, Hill, School of Environmental Sciences 25, 30, 45

Kumar, Vinod, Jawaharlal Nehru University 13, 42

Kurek, Slawomir, Pedagogical University of Cracow 42

Lardies, Raul, University of Zaragoza 34

Leung, Ling Sze Nancy, Ritsumeikan University 30

Leung, Maggi, Utrecht University 9

Lichter, Daniel, Cornell University and NIDI 36

Liviano, Daniel, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya 6, 17

Loi, Silvia, La Sapienza Università di Roma 42

Lomax, Nik, University of Leeds 5

Looker, Dianne, Mount Saint Vincent University 19

Lubman, Sarah, University of Southampton 40

Lundholm, Emma, Umeå University 2, 25, 40

Mahapatro, Sandhya, Institute for Social and Economic Change 32

Mahendra, Edo, University of Oxford 32

Malmberg, Gunnar, Umeå University 2, 25, 29

Manting, Dorien, PBL 28

Martinez-Fernandes, Cristina, OECD Keynote speaker

Martinovic, Marija, Geographic faculty 34

Mbah, Melanie, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology 3

Meijer, Marlies, Radboud University Nijmegen 12

Melser, Chantal, Statistics Netherlands 33

Mendoza, Cristóbal, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa 38

Meng, Xiangjing, Renmin University of China 14

Miret-Gamundi, Pau, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics 4

Mueller, Barbara Elisabeth, Mainz University 22

Módenes Cabrerizo, Juan Antonio, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona 11, 29

Muhidin, Salut, Macquarie University 32, 44

Mulder, Clara H., University of Groningen 1, 8, 18,

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41

Newbold, Bruce, McMaster University 40

Niedomysl, Thomas, Lund University 32

Noback, Inge, University of Groningen 24, 37

Norman, Paul, University of Leeds 5, 33

Nowok, Beata, University of St. Andrews 17

Oldenkamp, Marloes, University Medical Center Groningen 1

Owen, David, University of Warwick 35

Parks, Virginia, University of Chicago 44

van der Pers, Marieke, University of Groningen 18

Piekut, Aneta, University of Warsaw 26

Potrykowska, Alina, Central Statistical Office of Poland 38

Rattan, Ravindra, University of Porto 22

Rebhun, Uzi, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem 25

Recaño-Valverde, Joaquín, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona 5, 29, 42

Rees, Philip, University of Leeds 5, 13, 23, 43

Reinhold, Mario, Niedersächsisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Lower Saxony Institute for 43

Reyna Bernal, Angélica Elizabeth, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo 4

Rérat, Patrick, University of Neuchâtel 10

Roca, Maria de Nazaré, Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas 46

Rocak, Maja, Zuyd University of Applied Sciences 27

Rössel, Julia, Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz 24

Rozema, Jannie, Hanze University of Applied Sciences 27

Rüger, Heiko, Federal Institute for Population Research, Germany 39

Sage, Jo, University of Southampton 10 18

Sander, Nikola, Vienna Institute of Demography ÖAW 11, 25, 38, 43

Santic, Danica, Geographic faculty 34

Sauer, Lenore, Federal Institute for Population Research 9

Schaffert, Markus, Anhalt University of Applied Sciences 27

Schloemer, Claus, Federal Institute for Research on Urban Affairs and Spatial Development 42

Schmied, Doris, University of Bayreuth 28

Shuttleworth, Ian, QUB 29

Šimon, Martin, Institute of Sociology, Academy of Science of the Czech Republic 20

Sloan, Michael, Victoria University of Wellington 17

Smith, Darren, Loughborough University 31, 46

Snyder, Anastasia, The Ohio State University 16

Steenbekkers, Anja, National Institute for Social Research 28

135

Steiner, Ilka, University of Geneva / I-Démo 44

Steinführer, Annett, Thünen-Institute of Rural Studies 19

Stewart, Emma, University of Strathclyde 36

Stillwell, John, University of Leeds 5

Stone, Juliet, University of Southampton 18

Swiaczny, Frank, Federal Institute for Population Research 14, 22

Szewczyk, Aga, Loughborough University 38

Teke, Johnson Takwa, University of Yaounde 22

Temme, Daniela, University of Cologne 15

Terpstra, Tekke, University of Groningen 8

Tlatlik, Rebecca, University of Kassel 44

Townley, Matthew, University of Washington 16, 40

Trias Llimós, Sergi, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics 23

Uzzoli, Annamaria, Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies Hungarian Academy of Sciences

7

Venhorst, Viktor, University of Groningen 10, 24

Verweij, Antonia, RIVM 7

Vidal, Sergi, University of Bremen 29, 39, 42

Villarraga Orjuela, Hernán, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona 12

Villavicencio, Francisco, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics 5

Vlonk, Auke, Jan van Es Instituut 13, 23

Vrieling, Anton, University of Twente 33

Waite, Catherine, Loughborough University 26

Walford, Nigel, Kingston University 46

Wang, Tong, Eindhoven University of Technology 12

Waterhouse, Philippa, University of Southampton 41

Willaert, Didier, Vrije Universiteit Brussel 10

Williamson, Paul, University of Liverpool 33

Wilson, Ben, LSE 30

Wilson, Tom, The University of Queensland 5, 43

van Wissen, Leo, NIDI and University of Groningen 2, 9, 13, 20, 45

Zamyatina, Nadezda, Lomonosov Moscow State Univercity 8

Zorlu, Aslan, University of Amsterdam 6, 41