CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES

CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 30, November 2015

KEY MESSAGES

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CONTEXT ANALYSIS & CONFLICT PROFILE

NATIONAL CONTEXT

1. 2

2. 2

POLITICAL 2

SOCIAL 3

ECONOMIC 4

3. 4

UPDATE ON REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO JAS 4

MILITARY ESTABLISHES MEDIA CENTRE IN MAIDUGURI 5

. TENSIONS OVER ARREST OF BIAFRA RADIO ANCHOR 5

.

4. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING IN NSRP TARGET STATES 5

*Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK Government.

** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.

PAGE

Executive Summary

Context Analysis/Conflict Profile

Political

Several attacks attributed to Jamaatu Ahlis-Sunna Liddaawati Wal Jihad (JAS) were reported in November

amidst sustained counter-insurgency efforts by the Nigerian armed forces in the North East. JAS is reported

to have been responsible for suicide bomb attacks in Yola, Maiduguri and Kano. Also suspected JAS

insurgents launched attacks on communities and laid ambush for unsuspecting travellers in some parts of

Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states.

The death of Prince Abubakar Audu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Kogi State

gubernatorial elections reportedly hours after casting his ballot has raised tensions. Different parties and

candidates have disputed the decision of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to ask the

APC to present a new candidate.

There are fears of imminent industrial action across the country. This is because labour unions have

condemned attempts of the Nigerian Governors Forum to seek downward review of the national minimum

wage. Many state governments have had challenges meeting up with payment of salaries of civil servants

over the past year.

The deaths of several political figures have created tensions and occasioned political re-alignments in

affected states. For instance the death of Abubakar Audu, the All Progressive Congress (APC)

Gubernatorial candidate for Kogi state has raised tensions between supporters of the APC and PDP over

the controversial decision of INEC to ask APC to replace Audu and proceed with the supplementary

elections. In Plateau State, the death of Senator GNS Pwajok ended prospects of an appeal against the

election of Simon Bako Lalong as Governor. Senator Pwajok died two days after the Plateau State

Governorship Election Tribunal dismissed his petition for the nullification of the election results. This

development raised hopes that the state executive council will be constituted soon as Governor Lalong had

governed without a full executive council since the inauguration of his administration.

Tensions following the elections tribunal's nullification of Governor Nyesome Wike's election have abated

considerably in Rivers State. Wike will remain in power for 90 days pending decision on his appeal against

the tribunal's decision. In Neighbouring Bayelsa, there are growing concerns over allegations that both the

PDP and APC have contracted armed gangs to advance their respective quests for victory at the polls

despite signing a peace agreement to maintain law and order in the state. Tensions continue to rise ahead

of the December 5, 2015 governorship elections in the state.

The deposition of Lamido Ado Bayero, son of Late Emir Ado Bayero, from his title as Chiroman Kano late

last month has raised tensions in Kano. Loyalists of the late Emir have vehemently opposed the

development, accusing Emir Sanusi of pursuing a personal vendetta against his predecessor's family. It

may be recalled that the late Emir's son embarked on a self-imposed exile after he lost the race to the

current Emir, indicating his refusal to recognise Sanusi's Emirship. The late Emir's family has also obtained

a court order restraining Emir Sanusi from demolishing structures in the royal house in his recent bid to

renovate the palace.

Tensions between Governor Ganduje of Kano state and his predecessor Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso

escalated mid-November when protesters alleged to be loyalists of the former Governor stormed the State

Government House to express their displeasure at purported plans to scuttle the scholarship scheme

instituted by the Kwankwaso-led administration. Under the scheme, Kano state students were sponsored

to study in foreign universities and some private universities in Nigeria.

2

The protesting students clashed with supporters of Governor Ganduje who wanted to review the scheme as

a result of allegations of fraud. Supporters of Kwankwaso oppose the review as they consider it a covert ploy

by Ganduje to probe his former boss and predecessor. Interventions of security agencies prevented

escalation of the protests into violent clashes.

There was increase in incidents of suicide bomb attacks in several states. In Maiduguri, a female suicide

bomber disguised as an Internally Displaced Person (IDP) is reported to have detonated a bomb amongst

women and children at a checkpoint killing eight persons and injuring several others. At least 30 people

reportedly lost their lives when a deadly explosion hit a bus terminus in Yola, the Adamawa state capital.

Similarly, multiple bomb attacks in Kano targeting a Shi'ite Muslim procession and a popular GSM market

respectively reportedly left over 30 people dead. The upsurge in suicide bomb attacks has raised concerns

that JAS will increasingly resort to such tactics to undermine the presidential directive to end the insurgency

by the end of December.

Crime rates remained relatively high across several states in the country. For instance, cattle rustling and

theft have persisted in the Falgore forest in Kano state. A gun battle between armed bandits and security

forces in the area resulted in the death of three bandits and the arrest of nine others. Security agents are

reported to have killed eight cattle rustlers captured eighteen others and recovered about 1,000 cattle in the

state. In Plateau state, incidents of cattle rustling were also recorded in Jos South LGA. Incidences of

communal violence are also reported to have taken place in Bokkos LGA of Plateau state.

Although Kaduna State appeared to have contained groups involved in cattle rustling, it experienced

incidents of armed robbery attacks on roads. The state government has procured 107 vehicles for security

agencies to enhance efforts at crime detection and law enforcement.

Violent clashes were reported between Deebam and Deewell cult groups in Bomu community in Gokana

LGA. The clashes have led to population displacement as concerned villagers have deserted affected

areas. Gokana also recorded outbreak of communal violence between Barako and Nwebira communities

over a disputed land.

There were concerns that some counter-insurgency initiatives were undermining efforts to improve the

humanitarian condition in the North East. This follows the vacation order given by the Nigerian Army to

community settlements in Gujaba and Gulani LGA of Yobe State. The order was given to prevent civilian

population being caught up in crossfires as the military plans to attack suspected JAS camps. The situation

has resulted in the forced exodus of people into Kuka Reta IDP camps (already housing over 15,000

persons) and neighbouring makeshift camps for shelter. Some affected community members are reported

to have joined their relatives in Damaturu, further straining existing resources.

Following improved security situation, the Borno State government announced plans to re-open public

secondary schools in the state. This follows concerns about the implications of over 18month closure of

schools to educational development in the state. Schools were closed originally due to the declining

security situation. However, the use of school facilities to camp IDPs had affected early reopening of

schools.

The Government of Kano State responded swiftly to prevent potential break down of order following a

newspaper publication about alleged rape of male junior students by senior students at Hassan Gwarzo

Boys Secondary School. The members of the public were reportedly angered by the suggestion of the

media report that the school authorities had ignored earlier complaints by students of similar incidents.

There is also growing public concern of the implications of increasing drug use among youth in Kano for

public security.

Social

3

This follows reports that the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) confiscated drugs worth

millions in the state in recent raids on areas where sale and use of hard drugs have become rampant.

Economic

The move by state governors to review minimum wage has generated tensions in industrial relations. The

Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) claim plummeting price of oil (which cost $126 per barrel when the wage

was fixed, but has plunged to a mere $41 per barrel) has necessitated a downward review since states

depend mostly on allocations from the Federation Account. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has

however threatened to declare industrial action if the governors tamper with the minimum wage. Public

concerns about feared reduction of minimum wage have affected consumer spending habits across the

states especially as consumers prepare for the Christmas and New year festivities. The situation is

particularly critical in states where workers are still being owed their salaries. There are also indications that

some members of the public are facing hardships over inability to access their bank accounts due to delays

in registration for the mandatory Bank Verification Number (BVN).

The persistent paucity of fuel across the country continues to impact negatively on economic activities in

several states. Movement of persons and goods has been affected by the rise in transportation costs. There

are also reports of increases in prices of goods and services.

Economic activities are reportedly picking up in Yobe State. Farmers reported high yields during the harvest

season as a result of the good rainfall within the year. This has boosted the morale of farmers and increased

food supply. Recent success by local security operatives in recovering 150 livestock and returning them to

their legitimate owners has further encouraged cattle rearing and related economic activities in the state.

The persistent occurrence of cattle rustling and armed robbery in Kano state has adversely impacted

economic activities. Economic activities were also affected by multiple bomb blasts particularly that targeting

the GSM market. Many Kano residents reportedly avoided buying goods from major markets in the city.

Petty road side traders at Kwari market in Kano organized a protest march over reported plans by the State

Government to evict them from the market. The protesting petty traders feared they would lose their

livelihoods because Government's plan to build modern shops was aimed at discouraging street trading in

the area. The traders threatened to resist the planned construction unless the government provides an

alternative space for them.

JAS continued to demonstrate its capacity to launch attacks across the Nigerian border in Chad, Cameroun

and Niger Republic. In neighbouring Cameroun, five people are reported to have died when two female

suicide bombers attacked a truck with refugees. About 5 community members were also killed when

suspected JAS insurgents launched an attack on a village in southern Niger. 20 insurgents were killed during

a counter attack by Nigerien security forces. The Nigerien Air Force also bombed a JAS base in the country's

North-East and arrested more than 20 insurgents in its biggest counter-attack in eight months.

Nigerian military forces have continued to record progress in efforts to defeat JAS. Security forces reportedly

attacked a JAS camp in Bitta and Damboa road and rescued 61 women and children. Also the military

arrested a suspected JAS insurgent and killed four militants, freeing abducted women in a JAS camp in

Buduwa, Bama LGA. In spite of progress recorded by the military, JAS retained capacity to confront military

forces. For instance, JAS engaged the military in gun battles at Gudumbali, Guzamala LGA and Kareto,

Mobbar LGA of Borno State. The fighting was so intense that105 soldiers involved in the battle were reported

missing for a day.

National Context

Update on Regional and International Response to JAS

4

Military establishes Media Centre in Maiduguri

In keeping with recent efforts to keep the general public informed on activities of 'Operation Lafiya Dole', the

Nigerian Army has established a Media Centre in Maiduguri to provide information on counter-insurgency

activities. The centre is aimed at facilitating timely information dissemination to the media and the general

public.

Tensions over arrest of Biafra Radio anchor

The detention of Kanu Nnamdi, the Director of Radio Biafra has led to intermittent demonstrations in major

cities of the Niger delta region and the south-east region. The protesters are supporters of pro-Biafra groups

like the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) and the Indigenous

People of Biafra (IPOB). There were demonstrations in major towns in Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states.

There are fears that plan by security agencies to stop the demonstrations which have affected vehicular

movements and economic activities, may lead to violence.

Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Northeast

The influx of IDPs and individuals from neighbouring states and countries continues to present a challenge

for the humanitarian support being provided by Nigerian institutions and the international community. This is

likely to be complicated by displacement of relevant populations to prevent civilian casualties in clashes

between security operatives and JAS insurgents.

Programmes working on humanitarian assistance within Maiduguri may need to adapt programming to

accommodate the influx of newcomers who will require social services ranging from food aid to psychosocial

support. In addition to those returning from captivity that attempt to resettle in Maiduguri, there are a number

of individuals who are seeking return to their respective communities. This is also supported by the Borno

State Government's plan to close IDP camps in Maiduguri and force relocations back to LGAs in the state. It

is recommended that provisions are made to ensure that returning IDPs are catered for on arrival to their

respective communities.

For programmes working on humanitarian support as well as infrastructure and education activities, the

upcoming relocation of IDPs back to their home LGAs may have an impact on the process of distributing

social support to various communities as well as assisting rebuilding efforts, as the movement of thousands

of individuals at once may overwhelm the provisions available at one period of time.

The launch of Lafiya Dole military radio has provided another medium for dissemination of information in the

North East. For programmes working on peacebuilding and governance, the military strategy of using the

media to provide clear channels of communication may be supported with enhancing the quality of the radio

programming with conflict sensitive communication skills for the programming and broadcasters. It is

recommended that support for the communication efforts of the military radio may improve the overall quality

of communication that reaches communities.

Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in Kano

The alarming number of cases of youth drug exposure according to the NDLEA may have impactions for

programming targeting youth in the state. Reports of communities assuming youth are on drugs or are

related to drugs may continue to present challenges to overall dynamics of peace and security at the

community level. It is recommended that programmes working with communities remain abreast of the

dynamic shifts in people's perceptions towards youth, and consider these when creating programme

activities in the short-to-medium term. This will ensure that community response to these perceptions do not

result in targeted violence against young people in the state.

5

Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Middle Belt

The security situation in Plateau and Kaduna states improved even though there were incidents of criminality

and communal violence. It is recommended that programmes update stakeholder mapping and adjustment

planning for any potential major attack in Plateau State by JAS. Support to the efforts of Operation Safe Haven

(OPSH) in alternative dispute resolution at the community level may enhance trust in relevant communites

and encourage greater community policing efforts to combat and prevent violent conflict in the state. It is also

recommended that programmes strengthen the conflict prevention and management architecture of OPSH

and also enhance Alternative Dispute Resolution mechanism appropriate for addressing the communal and

resource based conflicts in the state.

Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Niger Delta

Tensions over annulment of governorship elections in Rivers, mobilizations toward the governorship

elections in Bayelsa, recurrent incidents of kidnapping and piracy and incidents of communal violence and

protests over arrest the of the Biafra Radio director reported in the month indicate precarious security

situations in the Niger Delta. Programmes working on electoral violence may want to consider additional

activities to promote non-violence over the next three to four weeks to ensure that successful interventions

employed during the 2015 Presidential election are replicated in Bayelsa state prior to the gubernatorial

election.

Programmes addressing peacebuilding, economic development and governance, should work on the rising

insecurity caused by continued cult gang violence at the community level, specifically focusing on countering

the recruitment of young people into the gangs. Programmes and policies to decrease tensions and curb

disillusionment such as quick impact programmes targeting at risk communities may support community

recovery and peacebuilding.

6