conflict, security and development
TRANSCRIPT
Contents
1. Trends in conflict < slide 3 >
2. Causes & correlates < slide 6 >
3. Characteristics of successful transitions < slide 10 >
4. Violent extremism – differences < slide 15 >
5. Geopolitical conflict < slide 20 >
Source: Uppsala/PRIO, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) [for marked 2014 estimates only]
Note: These data are best estimates drawn from available vetted sources. Because of conditions and data-gathering limitations in many areas in conflict, we recognize these estimates may be subject to change and can vary between sources.
Economic StressesInternal External
• Low incomes
• Youth unemployment
• Natural resource wealth
• Severe corruption
• Income inequality
• Economic shocks
• Climate change
• Natural disasters
Political StressesInternal External
• Ethnic, religious or regional competition
• Real or perceived discrimination
• Human rights abuses
• Perceived global inequity and injustice in the treatment of different groups
Security StressesInternal External
• Mistrust of other groups, security forces
• Legacies of violence and trauma
• Invasion/occupation
• External support for domestic rebels
• Cross-border conflict spillovers
• Transnational terrorism
• International criminal networks
Security, Economic, and Political Stresses
• Both political and criminal violence correlate strongly with weak and/or predatory institutions
• Legitimate institutions: technical capacity plus accountability and inclusion
• High levels of political terror increase the chances of future conflict
• High levels of corruption increase the chances of future conflict• Increases in the numbers of political prisoners and extrajudicial
killings increase the chances of future conflict
But the real key is institutions
Internal & external stresses
Weak/ illegitimate institutions
Increased risk of
violence
The Common Challenge
Immediate Signals
‘Commitment Mechanisms’
RealisticStrategies
• Participatory processes• Credible appointments• Transparency in
expenditures• Budget allocations to
priority groups• Redeployment /vetting
of security forces• Removal of
discriminatory policies
• Independence of executing agencies
• Independent monitoring
• Dual-key systems• International
execution of key functions
• National strategy: risk and priority assessments
• ‘Best fit’ approaches, realistic timeframes
• Simple plans, simple progress measures (polling)
• 2-3 early results• Communicate!
Coalitions, Confidence, Signals
Citizen Security Access to Justice and Services Jobs
• Citizen protection; community policing
• Realistic objectives & communications
• Vetting; security forces accountable to public
• Dismantling criminal networks
• Independent judiciaries linked to security reforms; faster caseload processing; extending justice services
• Phased anti-corruption measures; social accountability mechanisms
• Humanitarian delivery
• Public financial management: directing funds to underserved/excluded groups
• Multi-sectoral community empowerment programs (CDD etc.)
• Political representation: local and national
• Community-based/public employment programs
• Macroeconomic policies to contain consumer price volatility and encourage labor-intensive private employment
Transforming institutions…
ICRG Indicators 1985 – 2009
Years to threshold at pace of….
Fastest 20 Fastest ever
Bureaucratic quality 20 12
Corruption 27 14
Military in politics 17 10
Government effectiveness 36 13
…takes time
Violent extremism
• Contested definitions and poor quality data• What we know:– No direct link to poverty– Possible link to exclusion– Possible link to institutions– Education/class patterns of recruits different– Positive pull, not just push factors