conflicting interests in defining an 'optimal' battery...
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CONFLICTING INTERESTS IN DEFINING AN 'OPTIMAL' BATTERY SIZE WHEN INTRODUCING PHEVS Frances Sprei Physical Resource Theory Department of Energy & Environment Chalmers University of Technology
Sten Karlsson, Lars-Henrik Kullingsjö
Transportation Seminar, Stanford 2013-11-15
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Research question How will the choice of objective function influence the
optimal battery size? • Total Cost of Ownership savings of the car fleet • Electric drive fraction of the car fleet • Number of PHEVs in the car fleet
How are the results affected by: • Costs of converting HEV to PHEV • Subsidies • Charging possibilities?
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
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The database 445 privately driven Swedish cars Car model 2002 and younger GPS installed for 1-2 months June 2010-Sept 2012
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
<30y 31-45 46-60 >60
Shar
e (%
)
Age (yrs)
Age distribution of main driver
region
main driver
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2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
Parameter Average for cars with data (Set
data)
Averagea from vehicle register
Model year 2006.37 2006.12
Maximum engine power (kW)
98.2 99.5
Cylinder volume (cm3)
1819 1812
Curb weight (kg) 1456 1457
Fuel use (liter/100km)
7.22 7.26
CO2 emission (g CO2/km)
176 177
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2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Shar
e
Trip distance
Trip distance distribution
Share of trips
Share ofdistance
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Methodology Shift to PHEV when TCO is lower than corresponding HEV Costs included: • Annuity of investment costs • Yearly fuel and electricity costs
𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑠𝑚𝑠𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑠 = 𝑑𝑒, 𝑚
(𝐴𝐴𝐴) ∗ (𝑝𝑓𝑒𝑓 − 𝑝𝑒𝑒𝑒)
𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑐𝑐𝑠𝑐 = 𝛼𝛽−1𝑐𝑒𝑒
There is also an annualized investment cost besides battery 𝐶𝑓𝑓𝑓
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
Marginal annual distance driven on electricity
Fuel and electricity prices
Specific energy use
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Methodology Shift to PHEV when TCO is lower than corresponding HEV Costs included: • Annuity of investment costs • Yearly fuel and electricity costs
𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑠𝑚𝑠𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑠 = 𝑑𝑒, 𝑚
(𝐴𝐴𝐴) ∗ (𝑝𝑓𝑒𝑓 − 𝑝𝑒𝑒𝑒)
𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑐𝑐𝑠𝑐 = 𝛼𝛽−1𝑐𝑒𝑒
There is also an annualized investment cost besides battery 𝐶𝑓𝑓𝑓
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
Annuity
Utilized share of battery
Marginal battery cost
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Fixed parameters
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
Parameter Value
Specific fuel use, ef 0.45 kWh/km
Specific electricity use, ee 0.15 kWh/km
Fuel price, pf 0.2 $/kWh
Electricity price, pe 0.2 $/kWh
Annuity, a 0.15 yr-1
Utilization share, b 0.7
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RESULTS
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Cfix low (200$) and night time charging only
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
Marginal battery cost ($/kWh)
Opt
imal
bat
tery
siz
e (k
m)
PH
EV
sha
re o
f veh
icle
fle
et
Aver
age
cost
sav
ing
per P
HE
V ($
)
Pot
entia
l ele
ctric
driv
e fra
ctio
n
Individually TCO Fleet TCO EDF Nbr of PHEV
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Cfix high ($3500) and night time charging only
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
Individually TCO Fleet TCO EDF Nbr of PHEV
Marginal battery cost ($/kWh)
Opt
imal
bat
tery
siz
e (k
m)
PH
EV
sha
re o
f veh
icle
fle
et
Aver
age
cost
sav
ing
per P
HE
V ($
)
Pot
entia
l ele
ctric
driv
e fra
ctio
n
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Cfix low, night time charging, subsidy $5000
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
Fleet TCO EDF Nbr of PHEV Dotted with subsidy
Opt
imal
bat
tery
siz
e (k
m)
PH
EV
sha
re o
f veh
icle
fle
et
Aver
age
cost
sav
ing
per P
HE
V ($
)
Pot
entia
l ele
ctric
driv
e fra
ctio
n
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With workplace charging as well
Marginal battery cost ($/kWh)
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
Opt
imal
bat
tery
siz
e (k
m)
Low Cfix High Cfix
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Conclusions and discussion • Optimizing on electric drive fraction results in larger
battery sizes • Optimizing for nr of PHEV’s may reduce electric drive
fraction compared to other options • The extra costs of converting HEV to PHEV may delay
introduction of viable PHEV (to around 400$/kWh) • If these extra costs are low a subsidy may create a sub-
optimal low battery size • Work place charging increase both share of PHEVs and
electric drive fraction • Short-term goals vs long-term goals
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
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Future work • Looking at the effect of super credits in the EU for
vehicles with CO2 emissions under 50g/km • Logging 100, 2 car households (tot 200 vehicles) for
BEVs
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI
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Thank you for listening! For more info: S Karlsson, 2013, The Swedish car movement data
project - Final report, PRT report 2013:1 Kullingsjö, LH, Karlsson, S, 2012, The Swedish car
movement data project, EEVC, Brussels 2012 Kullingsjö, LH, Karlsson, S, Sprei, F, 2013, Conflicting
interests in defining an ‘optimal’ battery size when introducing the PHEV?, EVS27, Barcelona, 2013
2014-02-17
PHYSICAL RESOURCE THEORY, DEPT. OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | FRANCES SPREI