connecting the dots: social & mobile (facebook marketing, social media, online communities,...
DESCRIPTION
There has been a rush by brands in the last 24 months to embrace Facebook as the primary destination to connect with their consumers. The belief has been that consumers with their ever increasing network of friends represented an opportunity to disseminate their message in a cost effective manner. Recently however there have been a number of research reports indicating a decline across the board of engagement levels on social networking sites around the globe. This decline is concentrated in the key 18-29 YO demographic or post college but younger than 30 age set. This document will try to shed some light on: What are the actual social networking trends? Are their basic human drivers behind these trends? What are the technological drivers enabling these human drivers? What are the implications for brands and agencies? How do we exploit these changes on behalf of clients?TRANSCRIPT
08.10.11
C O N N E C T I N G T H E D O T S
SOCIAL NETWORKS AND MOBILETHE COLLECTIVE FACTORY LLC
Gene Keenan - The Collective Factory LLC
SUMMARY
3
There has been a rush by brands in the last 24 months to embrace Facebook as the primary destination to connect with their consumers. The belief has been that consumer with their ever increasing network of friends represented an opportunity to disseminate their message in a cost effective manner. Recently however there have been a number of research reports indicating a decline across the board of engagement levels on social networking sites around the globe. This decline is concentrated in the key 18-29 YO demograhic or post college but younger than 30 age set. This document will try to shed some light on:
• What are the actual social networking trends?
• Are their basic human drivers behind these trends?
• What are the technological drivers enabling these human drivers?
• What are the implications for brands and agencies?
• How do we exploit these changes on behalf of clients?
SOCIAL NETWORKING MYTHS AND REALITIES: A SUMMARY
4
BELIEF REALITY
Social networking is a new phenomenon Only the mechanic is new
Digital allows humans to maintain large reciprocal networks Despite the advent of digital the actual size of intimate reciprocal networks are small (20-40 people) and a maximum of 150
I just need to create a Facebook presence Brand pages are generally a waste of money & time unless they are executed well with a marketing plan behind them
Brands can reach a large network of people using social Most consumers will never see your message
Facebook transforms marketing The same old marketing rules apply
Mobile is still new Mobile will over take online in a year
Over sharing of information is a new consumer behavior driven by social networking Only the mechanic is new
SOME MARKET NUMBERS
FACEBOOK REMAINS DOMINANT PLATFORM
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,00
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Jun-20
10
Jul-2
010
Aug-2010
Sep-20
10
Oct-20
10
Nov-201
0
Dec-20
10
Jan-20
10
Feb-20
10
Mar-20
10
May-20
10
Apr-201
0
Jun-20
10
Facebook.comLinkedin.comMyspace.com
Twitter.comTumblr.comGOOGLE+
Source: Comscore Media Metrix, U.S., Jun-10-Jun-11
U.S. Visitor Trend for Leading Social Networking Sites
FACEBOOK IS STILL WINNING
5
BUT GLOBAL DECLINE IN SOCIAL NETWORKING USEAGE HAS BEGUN
7
Decline is seen in the key 18-29 Year
Old User
But:Middle age groups
continue to grow and are the fastest
growing
Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
DECLINE IN FB USEAGE BY ACTIVITY
8
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
Global US US College Educated < 30
Sent a
digital p
resen
t/gift
Sent m
essa
ges to
frien
dsJo
ined a
groupSea
rched
for n
ew co
ntacts
Instal
led an
applic
ation
Joine
d a mus
ician
/artis
t group
Instan
t mes
saged
with
frien
ds
Uploaded
photos o
n your
profile
Over time Facebook usage contribution
drops off and
involvement becomes more
passive
July 2009 -> June 2011
THE MAJORITY ABANDONING FB ARE YOUNG ADULTS
9 SOURCE: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=clientFriendlyUrl&id=1724424
1/4OF YOUNG ADULTS (18-29YO) LEAVING THE SOCIAL NETWORK
WHY THIS DECLINE IN USEAGE?
10
“boredom” and “getting tired” of the services
WHERE ARE THESE YOUNG ADULTS GOING?
FIRST A QUESTION:WHAT FACEBOOK ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED?
MOVE TOWARDS HYPER PERSONAL, HYPER LOCAL ACTIVITIES
13
US College Educated < 30
Played a game
Started a group
Online dating
Joined a branded group
Uploaded videos on your profile
5.0%
0.0%
INCREASED
MOVE TOWARDS:HYPER LOCAL
HYPER PERSONALENGAGEMENTS
+LOW ENGAGEMENT HIGH
IMPACT ACTIVITIES (video - analogous to a form letter)
Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
FACT:Activity is down and they are “leaving” FB.
WHERE:They are moving towards Tumblr, Instagram, Path, Color, and GroupMe: Passion groups with more authentic experiences.
Total Users
Per Day
0 12500000 25000000 37500000 50000000
Tumblr
Total Users
Per Day
0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000
Source: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=clientFriendlyUrl&id=1724424
RICHER ENGAGEMENTS WITH FEWER PEOPLE
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (are there basic human drivers?)
Because social was largely a activity done online it was used to fill in the time between other tasks.
As mobile has freed us from being tied to desktops it has made us more terrestrially focused creatures with mobile acting as the tether to our virtual lives.
As these terrestrial experiences become more deeply personal, physically managing large networks of “friends” becomes “boring” and “tiresome.”
THERE IS A HISTORICAL PRECEDENCE FOR THIS
18
150DUNBAR’S NUMBER
Dunbar's number is suggested to be a theoretical cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain
stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows who each person is, and how each person
relates to every other person.
There is debate about the exact number but it is somewhere between 100 and
250
BACKGROUND: Dunbar's surveys of village and tribe sizes also appeared to approximate this predicted value, including 150 as the estimated size of a neolithic farming village; 150 as the splitting point of Hutterite settlements; 200 as the upper bound on the number of academics in a discipline's sub-specialization; 150 as the basic unit size of professional armies in Roman antiquity and in modern times since the 16th century; and notions of appropriate company size.
The average 22-year-old has over 1,000 Facebook friends
source: http://www.intersperience.com/ May, 2011
Far beyond the carrying capacity of Dunbar’s Number
BUT THE AVERAGE
USER HAS ONLY 130 FRIENDS DUNBAR’S NUMBER
source: http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics August, 2011
FRIENDS BY AGE: LIFE STAGE
21
0
250
500
750
1000
13-16 YO 17-22 YO 30+ YO 40+ YO 50+ YO
450
1,000
15075
20
Jr High/High School
College
Early Adult Life Middle Age
Group Acceptance Self Actualization & Intimacy
The social networking life cycle is to move from one of seeking
group acceptance to one of self identity and intimacy.
As we get older we move towards smaller more intimate
groups and individual passions.
Older users will never have large networks because they
have moved beyond the group acceptance phase of life.
source: intersperience, gene keenan
SO, SIZE DOES MATTER: SMALLER NETWORKS GET MORE LOVE
22 source: http://overstated.net/2009/03/09/maintained-relationships-on-facebook
40
30
20
10
0
0 100 200 300 400 500
NETWORK SIZE
# O
F PE
OPL
E
Despite large network sizes. Reciprocal communication
remains with a small intimate group
Established Relationships
One-Way Communication
Reciprocal Communication
Q: WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THOSE HIGH REACH ONE-WAY CONVERSATIONS?
ERIC BERNECreator of
Transactional AnalysisPastime Conversations
A pastime is a series of transactions that is complementary (reciprocal), semi-ritualistic, and is
mainly intended as a time-structuring activity: Small talk.
Pastime conversations are low engagement but of high value from a ritualistic standpoint
Example (while running into someone on street):Talking about the weather
Headline news
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transactional_analysis
THE RITUAL IS THE SAME TODAY BUT THE CHANNELS HAVE CHANGED
25
Talking about the weatherGeneral small talk
Content from analog
Twitter updatesFacebook updates
Content from digital+
BUT BOTH ARE LOW ENGAGEMENT
LOW REACH HIGH REACH
YESTERDAY: IN-PERSON TODAY: VIRTUAL
26
Average User* “Sharing Information”
source: http://overstated.net/2009/03/09/maintained-relationships-on-facebook
Low Engagement “announcements”
Broadcast out but typically not read, commented or synthesized*
The primary difference between analog and digital ritual
conversations: digital are typically not reciprocal (because they are not
in-person)*You can most easily see this in twitter where information is
broadcast and forwarded but rarely analyzed for accuracy. At the end of the day it’s not the content that matters but the ritual of sharing it.
MOST SOCIAL INTERACTIONS ARE “PASTIME” CONVERSATIONS
BUT BASED ON THIS RESEARCH THEN FACEBOOK ADVERTS SHOULD NOT BE EFFECTIVE
27
0.011-0.165% 0.4-0.7%
source: http://bit.ly/mYPZ9k
but... conversions
were practically non-existent
FACEBOOK CTR GOOGLE ADWORDS CTR
Q: WHAT DOES WORK?
FIRST: WHAT ARE CONSUMERS PERCEPTIONS OF MEDIA?
29
4%
2%
2%
19%
17%
46%
52%
52%
12%
19%
20%
3%
7%
9%
2%
2%
15%
14%
53%
51%
18%
23%
11%
11%
3%
2%
2%
22%
11%
13%
52%
50%
48%
17%
22%
24%
6%
15%
13%
36%
Emails I signed up for Ads in magazines
Ads served in search engine results Products shown embedded in TV Ads on mobile devices
Online video ads Online banner ads Ads on social networks
3%34% 49%
11%4%
Editorial content such as a newspaper article
4%31% 49% 11%
4%
Brand websites
3%26% 45% 19%
7%
Ads on TV
3%24% 51% 16%
6%
Ads in radio
Trust Completely Trust Somewhat Neither Trust nor Distrust Don’t Trust Much Don’t Trust At All
Nielsen, Global Online Survey, Q1 2011
universal in lack of trust
INDIVIDUAL relationships and collective wisdom however DO WORK
30
Trust Completely Trust Somewhat Neither Trust nor Distrust Don’t Trust Much Don’t Trust At All
Nielsen, Global Online Survey, Q1 2011
1%18% 58% 21%
2%
RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PEOPLE I KNOW
2%4%
45% 38% 10%
CONSUMER OPINIONS POSTED ONLINE
#1 #2note drop off
between friends and
just consumers
FACEBOOK REALIZES THIS WHICH IS WHY THEY DO THIS:
31
Facebook attempts to be a “friend” by selling ads based on friend likes
GE STUDY PROVES CONSUMERS RESPOND TO SHARED CONTENT
32
Research proves that close
relationship recommendations is the best way to win
source: http://adage.com/article/digital/ge-study-proves-consumers-respond-shared-content/232324/
WHAT ABOUT FANS?
MEASURING CORE FANS ON FACEBOOK
34
CORE FAN:Any fan whose comment count is higher than the average is a “core fan”.
This number ranges from 1.14 for Bob Marley to 2.03 for Bob Marley.
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT:Unless a fan actively participates in a brand’s Facebook Page and their activity on the Page has been continuous, the brand’s status updates will cease appearing in the fan’s Facebook news stream.
source: http://bit.ly/mYPZ9k
Q: WHY ARE CORE FAN COUNTS SO LOW IF BRAND X OR ARTIST Y IS A PASSION POINT?
Campfire Versus Fireworks Theory
Close intimate lasting conversations
Group experiences, exciting but not intimate
Brand X or Artist Y might be a passion point but when that
interaction takes place in Facebook it becomes less authentic because it’s not
close and intimate
source: Sam Huston
IMPLICATIONS
37
FACT:Young users are moving to mobile at an accelerated rate
RESULT:Mobile allows casual connections to be maintained in a one way “shout out” (pastime conversation) using video posting
while engaging in deeper connections with “true friends” and personal passions through smaller more intimate networks
Facebook moves from ‘Passion Point” to “Utility”
IMPLICATIONS FOR FACEBOOK
39
FACT:Young users activity already mirrors that of older users once you
strip away the “Maintained and One-Way” relationships
RESULT:Young users will maintain large networks through pastime
conversations but will have a smaller group of close connections (either through FB or a another third party passion site/app).
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
THE PATH FORWARD
41
INSIGHT SOLUTIONBrands need to move beyond Pastime type conversations with consumers and into deeper more meaningful relationships with them This means:• Understanding your consumer• Knowing their passions• Relating to those passions• Being where they are• Providing value
For social this means • Being mobile which means understanding where
mobile is going• Going smaller by focusing on passions like:• Instagram• Tumblr• Path• etc.
• Providing services instead of advertising. The best way to do this is with mobile
• Creating opportunities to share instead of advertising to
CONTACT:Gene [email protected]
http://www.thecollectivefactory.com
ADDITIONAL DATA POINTS
MOBILE INTERNET IS NOW FREE AND EVERYWHERE
44
Observation:Smartphones are now “free”
Implication:Acceleration of the mobile
consumer
Source:AT&T / August 2011
IN 12 MONTHS MOBILE WILL OVERTAKE ONLINE
45
12%1%2%
77%
7%
1%
11%7%
19%
42%
18%
3%
E-Reader Mobile Phone Personal PC/LaptopTablet Device Through my TV Work PC/Laptop
NOW 1 YEAR FROM NOW
One year from now mobile devices
combined will match PC/Laptops as
people’s preferred internet access device
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS YOUR FAVORITE DEVICE TO ACCESS THE INTERNET
Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
MOBILE DRIVING SOCIAL NETWORKING GROWTH
46
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
Social Networking Search
218%
412%
CategoryApril 2008
# of Unique Users(000)
April 2009# of Unique Users
(000)
April 2010# of Unique Users
(000)
Social Networking 5,270 13,905 27,007
Search 11,817 24,846 35,573
Entertainment 9,687 17,330 25,791
source: nielsen - april 2010
MOBILE SOCIAL NETWORKING APP USEAGE IS SOARING
47
240% since last year.
source: comscore - June, 2010
Pastime social networking activity is quickly moving to mobile
LARGE MOBILE COMPANIES
48
Mobile = 50% of total active users,
vs. 25% Y/YMobile = 40% of all tweets
100MM mobile users vs. 50MM Y/Y 50% of all users subscribe on mobile
2x more active than desktop-only users
200 MM mobile active users vs. 50MM in 9/09
Source: KPCB / June 2011
60%Of all Smartphone owners have used a
location based service
source: Pew Research Center’s Internet and American Life Project
HOW CAN BRANDS REACH
50
CRM for those users who “Like” the brand can be used to generate the “friend recommendation” (most effective) brands want.
EXAMPLE:
LaurenBanana Republic sends Lauren a
coupon for shopping and tells her she can bring a friend: She brings her friend Mary.
Mary
They go shoppingLikes Banana
Republic
Like WorksIt leverages a brand advocate to act as a sales person on the
brands behalf
Title Line OneSecondary title line
51 http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/those-millions-on-facebook-some-may-not-actually-visit/
Facebook counts as “active” users who go to its Web site or its mobile site. But it also counts an entire other category of people who don’t click on facebook.com as “active users.” According to the company, a user is considered active if he or she “took an action to share content or activity with his or her Facebook friends or connections via a third-party Web site that is integrated with Facebook.”
Come again?
In other words, every time you press the “Like” button on NFL.com, for example, you’re an “active user” of Facebook. Perhaps you share a Twitter message on your Facebook account? That would make you an active Facebook user, too. Have you ever shared music on Spotify with a friend? You’re an active Facebook user. If you’ve logged into Huffington Post using your Facebook account and left a comment on the site — and your comment was automatically shared on Facebook — you, too, are an “active user” even though you’ve never actually spent any time on facebook.com.