connie brown, cmt - cmt association · pdf filewave -> one of a series of undulations. ......
TRANSCRIPT
Connie Brown, CMT
Aerodynamic Investments Inc. www.aeroinvest.com
TM
Order – Pattern - Fluctuation
Cycle -> A complete course of operation returning to the original state. Pattern -> Any arrangement that suggests or reveals design or order. Fluctuation -> Wavelike motion Fluctuate suggests irregular or alternating movements, especially up and down. Oscillation -> The act of fluctuating within or between relatively fixed limits. Wave -> One of a series of undulations. Something that swells and has a crest and trough, or rises and falls. Rhythm -> Measured motion. Movement marked by reasonably regular recurrence of alternation. Periodicity -> A perfectly regular idealized motion.
TM
Source: Cycles Classic Library Collection – Edward R. Dewey - The Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Order – Pattern - Fluctuation
Source: Cliff Harris – Climatologist & Randy Mann - Meteorologist
TM
Order – Pattern - Fluctuation Deviations from Trend in Log GNP
Source: St. Louis Reserve - Deviations from the long term US growth trend, 1954-2005
TM
Order – Pattern - Fluctuation Deviations from Trend
TM
Benner 9-Yr Cycle in Pig-Iron Prices 1834 - 1900
Source: Samuel Benner’s Prophecies, 1884
“Fluctuation -> Wavelike motion … suggests irregular or alternating movements” Oscillation -> The act of fluctuating within or between relatively fixed limits.
TM
Order – Pattern - Fluctuation The 9.6-Year Cycle of LYNX Abundance 1810-1953
Source: Cycles Classic Library Collection – Edward R. Dewey - The Foundation for the Study of Cycles
TM
Order – Pattern - Fluctuation Deviations from Trend
Source: Openi.nlm.nih.gov
TM
Source: Cycles Classic Library Collection – Edward R. Dewey - The Foundation for the Study of Cycles
TM
Lesser Known
Epoch -> Critical points in time; points of reference on a periodic curve such as crests or troughs OR crossings. Exogenous -> originating from or due to causes external to the phenomenon. Families of Cycles -> when the periods of a number of cycles bear simple multiples or fractional relationships to each other. Example… a family of cycles based on a double progression of 6 years would have cycle periods of 6,12,24,48 AND 6, 3, 1 ½ years.
TM
Source: Cycles Classic Library Collection – Edward R. Dewey - The Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Consider History…
1793 England goes to War with France
1796-97 Land Speculation Bubble Burst.
Feb 25, 1797 see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1796
1812 The War of 1812 was 32mth between USA and GB
In GB started 2 decades of stagnation called the "Long Depression"
1871 Chicago Fire
1873 Panic of 1873 triggered a depression in Europe and USA until 1879
1893 The Panic of 1893 was the worse economic depression
resulting in 97% bank failures. (Railroad Bubble collapse.)
see… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893
TM
Consider History…
1902-03 DJIA is only 5 yrs old when the first bear market occurs (-46.1%) (1929 crash was -47.9%, 1930-32 loss -86.0%) 1907 Called the "Panic of 1907", Total loss -48.5% 1914 The NYSE was closed for much of the latter part of 1914 (WW1) 1916, Feb 2 Germany starts attacking US shipping 1919-1921 Post WW1 Boom terminates with a collapse (-46.6%) 1974 = 42yr low with 1932 low. 7 yr low from 1967. Mid-point of 17yr cycle from the 1966 top.
TM
Source: Connie Brown, CMT 2013 Annual Report
TM
Benner Panic Cycle in Pig-Iron Prices 1800s
Source: Samuel Benner’s Prophecies, 1884
TM
Excel Showing alternating 20 and 18 Year intervals
TM
Source: Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
Year Federal Reserve Chairman Resigns
TM Source:
Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
Order – Pattern - Fluctuation
Source: Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
TM Software: MA7
DJIA 1900 - 2038
TM
Source: Connie Brown, CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
DJIA 1987 – 2032 Mirroring… avoid the trap
TM
Source: Connie Brown, CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
Euclid Axiom applied to IBM
TM
Source: Connie Brown, CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
Euclid Axiom applied to IBM
TM
Source: Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
Euclid Axiom applied to IBM
TM
Source: Connie Brown, CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
Euclid Axiom applied to IBM
TM
Source: Connie Brown, CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
Euclid Axiom applied to IBM
TM
Source: Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
Euclid Axiom applied to IBM
Source: Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
TM
Global Markets
Source: Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
TM
Global Markets
Source: Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
TM
Global Markets
Source: Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
TM
Source: Connie Brown,CMT Aerodynamic Investments Inc.
TM
Lesser Known
Harmonic –> A unit fraction of some overall length. The word comes from the science of musical sounds where overtones all have lengths that are unit fractions of the basic wave. Fractional Harmonic Intervals -> are decimal subdivisions of harmonic intervals. Harmonic Analysis -> a method of describing a time series. It is accomplished by fitting sine-cosine curves of harmonic(unit fraction) lengths to the series. When combined the sine-cosine curves will reproduce the original curve to any degree of accuracy.
TM
Source: Cycles Classic Library Collection – Edward R. Dewey - The Foundation for the Study of Cycles
