consultation meeting on theconsultation meeting on the … · 2011. 9. 29. · mohamed ait kadi...
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Consultation Meeting On theConsultation Meeting On theIntegrated Drought Management
Programme
Mohamed AIT KADIChair of GWP Technical Committee
Geneva, Switzerland, 15-16 November 2010
Technical committee
To provide intellectual leadership on key strategic issues (GWP strategy 2009-2013)
To be fully involved in Making GWP’s Knowledge Chain Work : technical capacities, experiences and expertise of regions will be systematically mobilizedexpertise of regions will be systematically mobilized
GWP Knowledge Chain
GWPO/SEC• Coordinate & Promote the Provision/Sharing of Knowledge/Experiences• Integrate Knowledge as part of the Communication culture of the GWP Network
KP/SA TEC RWP/CWPRTG
Integrate Knowledge as part of the Communication culture of the GWP Network• Identify technical needs & Coordinate with the regions
Provide an accessible and highquality scientific/ empiricalknowledge base
Provide clear insights to lead & inform policy and decisionmakers on IWRM issues
Establish strategic priorities in which information, knowledge and expertise is needed to solvepractical problems faced by the Region/Country
KP/SAParticipate to sharedpublications/knowledgeproducts
Provide technical & policyadvice and support on issues of specific relevance to regionaland country needs
Produce high quality, peerreviewed and evidence basedinformation, background material and policy briefsshared publications…
Region/Country
Promote the emergence of knowledge networks & mobilise Centers of excellence as collaborative Centers at Regional/ Country levels
Provide technical and policy adviceand support on issues of specificrelevance to regional and country needs
Sujets de discussion
P é t l i i l idé
Morocco is a highly water stressed country with erratic rainfall and frequent droughts.
The country is reaching the end of the water development era. Water resources management is therefore shifting to the more difficult task of ensuring economically, socially and environmentally efficient water • Présentez les principales idées que vous
allez développer
y yallocation within the existing water resources constraints.
Increasing Frequency & Severity of Droughts
Drought Severity Variations in Morocco
Decreasing Precipitation
• une rétrogradation statistiquement significative de 2.37 mm par an est enregistrée, soit plus que 113 mm sur 48 ans.
Durée maximale des jours consécutifs secs RR < 1 mm (Maroc)
• Allongement de la durée maximale des jours consécutifs secs dépassant les +9 jours en 48 ans.
• Cette durée s’est accrue qu’à partir de 1995, d’une façon claire enregistrant ainsi la valeur maximale en 1999 de 117 jours .
• une baisse significative de la durée maximale des jours consécutifs humides de ‐0.02 jours par an
Durée maximale des jours consécutifs humides RR > 1 mm (Maroc)
Indice de De Martonne Climat
1961 ‐ 1985
1986 ‐2005
EXPANSION OF ARIDITYEXPANSION OF ARIDITY
[I = P/(T+10)]
Aride
Semi‐aride
Subhumide
Humide
Climat
(DMN, 2007)
Source: A. Lhafi, HEFLDSource: A. Lhafi, HEFLD
50
70 %
Fluctuation of AGP and GDP
0
-30
-10
10
30
50
0
-50
80 84 88 92 96
GDP AGP
Morocco’s Demographic Transition 50 100
202530354045
Mill
ions
40
50
60
70
80
90
%
Population
Rural
Urban
Urbanity ratio
12
05
1015
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
0
10
20
30
Morocco’s Economic Transition
Morocco’s GDP (BDH) Structure of the EconomyShare in GDP (%)
Rewable Water Resources/ca/RB
1190
8531045
141
856
512418
1144
161
0200400600800
100012001400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
River Basins
Ren
ewab
le W
ater
R
esou
rces
m3/
ca
1
23
4
56 8
730 m3 /ca/year
Water resources endowment/distribution
7
9
730 m /ca/year
Deficit/surplus
96
1068
-35 11 -450010001500
14
-219
35
-1468
-163 -126
11 4
-2000-1500-1000
-5000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
River Basins
Mm
3
Key Questions
How much more irrigation does Morocco need to meet th f t d f i l ti ?the future needs of a growing population?
How to restructure consumption patterns from the present wasteful low value water intensive uses?
How can farmers achieve a higher livelihood from every drop of water?
What will the side effects on the rural community be by transferring water to cities? And what are the implicationstransferring water to cities? And what are the implications for food security?
Does the import of food “virtual water” support food security and a more equitable and efficient allocation of water?
Water Sector Reforms (1995)
• The adoption of a long term strategy for an integrated water resources management;g ;
• The development of a new legal and institutional framework to promote decentralized management and increase stakeholder participation;
• Introducing economic incentives in water allocation decisions through rational tariff and cost recovery;
• Taking capacity enhancing measures to meet institutional challenges for the management of water resources; and g g
• Establishing effective monitoring and control of water quality to reduce environmental degradation
Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099
Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs(compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)
Climate change impact on resources Climate change impact on resources endowment & variabilityendowment & variability
Model-Projected Runoff Change (%)[(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)][(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)]
Coop
WS(Milly et al., 2005)
Climate Shift 80s?
Moyenne mobile 20 ans (série officielle)Loukkos+LaouSebouBouregregO E Rbi
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
s m
oyen
s 20
ans
(hm
3/an
)
Oum Er RbiaTensiftMoulouyaLinéaire (Oum Er Rbia)
0
1 000
2 000
1 945 1 950 1 955 1 960 1 965 1 970 1 975 1 980 1 985 1 990
1ère année
App
orts
IDM REQUIREMENTS Successful implementation of IDM requires a lot of
data and strong analytical capacities
Data on all aspects (meteorological, hydrological, economic, social, environmental..) need to be strategically collected and more systematically monitored >>> National Drought Observatory
C l i k h ld li di l l f
21
Create a multistackeholder policy dialogue platform to address the drought challenge in a properly holistic manner >>> High Water and Climate Council