consumer futures in tourism tmi conference, 15 october 2004 david geddes
TRANSCRIPT
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Consumer Futures in Tourism
TMI Conference, 15 October 2004David Geddes
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Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
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Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
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Going up…disposable incomeReal* Household Disposable Income per Head in the UK.
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
Note:Index (1971=100). *Adjusted to real terms using the expenditure deflator for the household sector. Source:Office for National Statistics 2002
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Going up...spend on discretionary items
Source: Mintel, British Lifestyle 2002Note: £bn* - Gross Discretionary Spend
Long Term Household Expenditure Trends 1991 - 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Food
Drinks
Toba
cco
Eatin
g Out
Out-o
f-Hom
e En
terta
inm
ent
Leisur
e Goo
ds
Holid
ays
Cloth
ing
Toile
tries
& M
edicin
e
Gross Discretionary Spend £bn
1991 2001 2006
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Going up…the Middle Class
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
ABC1
C2DE
Note:Unweighted base. All persons aged 16 or over. Socio-economic group is based on the informants own job (or last job if not in employment). Excludes those in Armed forces or people who have never worked.. Source:Office for National Statistics 2002
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Going up…older age groups
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
1991 Census Population
2007 population projections
Note: Percentage of total UK population by age category. Projections based on 1991 census data.Source: CACI, 2001
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“Silver Surfers”
Goin
g U
p
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The PeterPan Generation
Goin
g U
p
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Goin
g U
p The ConvenienceSociety
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Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
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Goin
g U
p
Going Places
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Going up…no frills
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
19971998
19992000
20012002
’00
0’s
pass
en
gers
EasyJetRyanair
Source: CAA/Ryanair.com/easyJet.com/Mintel
*
*Note: easyJet purchase of Go.
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Going up...visiting friends and relatives
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Note: Domestic staying visits within the UK staying with friends or relatives (millions)Source: UKTS 1990-2002
Millions
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
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Millions
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Note: Domestic staying visits within the UK for business purposes (millions)Source: UKTS 1995-2002, readjusted pre-2000
Going up...business tourism
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
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Going up…short breaks
Note: Domestic holidays of 1-3 nights within the UK (millions)Source: UKTS 1995-2002, readjusted pre-2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Millions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
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Going down…domestic long holidaysEngland and UK
Overseas
Note: UK residents long holidays (+4 nights) to England and abroad (millions )Source: Social Trends Dataset, BTA 1971–1998.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
* Change in data collection methodology
*Millions
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Going down... overseas visitors (exc VFR)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousands
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Going up... UK Tourism Balance of Payments Deficit - £13bn swing in 13 years!
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Source: IPS 2002
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Bill
ion
s
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Outbound Inbound Balance of payments
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Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
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Cities
Goin
g U
p
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Traditional ResortsGoin
g D
ow
n
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Still popular…trips to the sea sidePlaces visited for a day out in 2003
Source: BMRB/Mintel - Days Out - UK - April 2004
Seaside Resorts 53%
City / Town 35%
Retail Complex 33%
Beauty Spot 29%
Country Park 29%
Museum or Gallery 26%
Stately Homes 25%
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Goin
g U
p
GettingAway from
Cars
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Goin
g U
p
Hankering forthe Med lifestyle
- all yearround
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Goin
g U
p
Homogeneity
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Goin
g U
p
Desire to escapeHomogeneity
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Goin
g U
p
Authenticity
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Goin
g U
p
Being by Water
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Goin
g U
p
Eating and drinkingby Water
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Most Visitor AttractionsGoin
g D
ow
n
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Goin
g U
p
Destinationsbased on inspiration
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Brands
Goin
g U
p
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Goin
g U
p
Budget Hotels - they have established a new
benchmark for minimum standards
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Quality Independents
and “Boutiques”G
oin
g U
p
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Casinos
Goin
g U
p
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Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
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Expectationsof Quality
Goin
g U
p
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Learning about quality fromthe Competition
It is quicker and cheaper to get toDubrovnik thanto Windermerefrom London
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Lots of tourists
(on short break
from London?)
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Nice places to eat,
drink and
people watch
Nice places to
Shop
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Nice toPromenade
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Pedestrian Friendly
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Quality from ground up
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No GaudyFacia
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QualityStreet
Furniture
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Nice at night
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Animated
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Strong Cultural
Offer
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ModernToilets
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Lesson from the Competition
They Seem to Care More
The Qualitymatches modern
expectations
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www.locum-destination.com
For copy of the presentation, please email dgeddes@locum-
destination.com