consumer staples sector clay daney subrahmanyam darbha summer 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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Consumer Staples Sector
Clay DaneySubrahmanyam Darbha
Summer 2013
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Agenda
• Sector Overview
• Business Analysis
• Economic Analysis
• Financial Analysis
• Valuation Analysis
• Recommendation
Sector Overview
Business Analysis
Economic
Analysis
Financial Analysis
Valuation Analysis
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Sector Overview
• Consumer Staples Sector (S5CONS)
o Manufacturers of essential products such as food, beverages, tobacco, and household items
o People are unable or unwilling to cut consumer staples out of their budget regardless of their financial situation.
o Non-cyclical
Sector Overview
Business Analysis
Economic
Analysis
Financial Analysis
Valuation Analysis
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Industry Classifications
Ticker Name Last Price Market Cap
Food & Staples Retailing (8 members)
WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc $73.56 $243B
CVS CVS Caremark Corp $57.52 $72B
COST Costco Wholesale Corp $108.08 $48B
Food Beverage & Tobacco (26 members)
KO Coca-Cola Co/The $39.41 $179B
PMPhilip Morris International Inc $87.66 $147B
PEP PepsiCo Inc $79.62 $125B
Household & Personal Products (6 members)
PG Procter & Gamble Co/The $75.95 $212B
CL Colgate-Palmolive Co $56.13 $54B
KMB Kimberly-Clark Corp $94.35 $37B
Data as of: Mar 28 2013
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The Key Players
Company Ticker Last Price (6-20-
13) Market Cap
Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT $73.56 $243B
Procter & Gamble Co/The PG $75.95 $212B
Coca-Cola Co/The KO $39.41 $179B
Philip Morris International Inc PM $87.66 $147B
PepsiCo Inc PEP $79.62 $125B
CVS Caremark Corp CVS $57.52 $72B
Altria Group Inc MO $34.72 $71B
Colgate-Palmolive Co CL $56.13 $54B
Mondelez International Inc MDLZ $28.68 $43B
Costco Wholesale Corp COST $108.08 $48B
Walgreen Co WAG $48.93 $47B
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Data as of: May 13 2013
Consumer Dis-cretionary;
11.78%
Consumer Staples; 11.06%
Energy; 11.48%
Financials; 15.96%
Health Care; 11.41%
Industrials; 9.73%
Information Technology;
17.30%
Materials; 3.27%
Telecom; 1.49% Utilities; 3.15% Cash; 3.19%
Dividend Receivables; 0.17%
Consumer Dis-cretionary ;
11.97%
Consumer Staples ;
9.17%
Energy ; 10.98%
Financials ; 19.34%
Health Care;
10.99%
Industrials; 10.71%
Information Technology;
15.65%
Materials; 5.16%
Telecom; 2.69%Utilities; 3.35%
S&P 500SIM
The Consumer Staples Sector•The SIM portfolio is overweight consumer staples by 189 bps
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QTD / YTD Performance
Performance QTD YTD
Consumer Staples 2.67% 16.81%
S&P 500 4.45% 14.92%
Data as of: Mar 28 2013
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QTD Performance
Data as of: Mar 28 2013
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YTD Performance
Data as of: Mar 28 2013
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Business Analysis
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Stock Market Cycles “Cyclical”cycles = 4 years
“Secular” cycles = 30 years • 2011 - beginning of a cyclical bull market.
• 2013 - tail end of cyclical bull market
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Business Analysis: Supply & Demand Dynamics
• Low price elasticity of demand• Low beta • Low correlation to overall market
• Producers grow by: o Reducing costs o Reducing prices o Differentiating products
• Q: Why invest in staples? • A: Slow and steady long term growth
Sector Overview
Business Analysis
Economic
Analysis
Financial Analysis
Valuation Analysis
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The user and geography
• Consumer Staples are essential products for consumers (domestic and foreign).
• People are unable or unwilling to cut consumer staples out of their budget regardless of their financial situation.
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Porter’s Five Forces
Force Characteristics Threat level
Competition -Low prices-Standardized products
High
New Entrants -Economies of Scale (high)-Barriers to entry (high)-Large Companies market share (high)
Low
Customer power -Price sensitivity (high)-Brand loyalty (low)-Best Value seekers (high)
High
Supplier power -Need for Low Input costs (high)-Raw material inexpensive
Moderate
Substitutes -Value products (low end prices)-Necessity products (fewer substitutes)
High
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• Predictability and steadiness - helps match supply and demand closely
• Economies of scale - can be achieved relatively faster
• Non cyclical nature of the sector - steady growth with regular dividends throughout economic and business cycles
• Overall, the sector is well positioned for better profitability & pricing
Economic Analysis: Profitability & Pricing
Sector Overview
Business Analysis
Economic
Analysis
Financial Analysis
Valuation Analysis
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Financial Analysis
Sector Overview
Business Analysis
Economic
Analysis
Financial Analysis
Valuation Analysis
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Correlation - Consumer Staples & Other SPX500 sectors ’09 -’12
S5CONS S5COND S5HLTH S5FINL S5UTIL S5ENRS S5INFT S5INDU S5TELS S5MATR SPX500S5CONS 1.00S5COND 0.98 1.00S5HLTH 0.98 0.95 1.00S5FINL 0.61 0.68 0.63 1.00S5UTIL 0.96 0.93 0.93 0.50 1.00S5ENRS 0.86 0.89 0.85 0.65 0.82 1.00S5INFT 0.96 0.98 0.94 0.73 0.91 0.87 1.00S5INDU 0.91 0.95 0.89 0.80 0.85 0.93 0.94 1.00S5TELS 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.50 0.91 0.83 0.86 0.83 1.00S5MATR 0.84 0.90 0.82 0.83 0.78 0.92 0.91 0.97 0.76 1.00SPX500 0.96 0.98 0.95 0.77 0.90 0.92 0.98 0.98 0.88 0.94 1.00
Weighted Moving Average of Price
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Regression - Consumer Staples & Other SPX500 sectors ‘09-’12
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 209-------------+------------------------------ F( 10, 198) =10983.87 Model | 378539.277 10 37853.9277 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 682.371554 198 3.44632098 R-squared = 0.9982-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9981 Total | 379221.649 208 1823.181 Root MSE = 1.8564 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ s5cons | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- s5cond | -.5593398 .0628114 -8.91 0.000 -.6832049 -.4354747 s5hlth | -.758003 .0577293 -13.13 0.000 -.8718461 -.6441598 s5finl | -1.48988 .0899044 -16.57 0.000 -1.667173 -1.312586 s5util | .0567482 .0491653 1.15 0.250 -.0402066 .1537031 s5enrs | -.5348346 .032419 -16.50 0.000 -.5987654 -.4709039 s5inft | -1.176365 .0686285 -17.14 0.000 -1.311702 -1.041028 s5indu | -1.205989 .066378 -18.17 0.000 -1.336888 -1.075091 s5tels | -.7536217 .0552162 -13.65 0.000 -.862509 -.6447344 s5matr | -.2879355 .0292043 -9.86 0.000 -.3455269 -.2303441 spx | 1.883624 .1096506 17.18 0.000 1.667391 2.099857 _cons | -34.93129 4.583659 -7.62 0.000 -43.97035 -25.89224------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weighted Moving Average of Price
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Reg., Corr., Ratio - Consumer Staples on SPX500 (past 5
yrs.)
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Reg., Corr., Ratio - Consumer Staples on SPX500 (past 1
yr.)
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Spread Analysis (5yrs.)
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Spread Analysis (1yr.)
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Total Returns (monthly) - Consumer Staples (past 5 yrs.)
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Total Returns (monthly) - Consumer Staples vs. SPX500 (5 yrs.)
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Interpretation of Valuation Metrics• In general, Ratios/Margins are interpreted relative to other
similar companies, Industry averages.
• Stability of these ratios over time is an important indicator of risk or other appropriate parameters.
• Eg. Profitability Ratioso Gross Profit Margin – relative cost to price standingo Operating Profit Margin – measure of profitability (creditworthiness)o Cash Flow to Sales – measure of productivity and creditworthinesso Return on Assets – measure of amount of income generated per
total assets
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Key highlights - valuation metrics & fundamentals
Field CY 2014 CY 2013 Current CY 2012 CY 2011 CY 2010 CY 2009 CY 2008 CY 2007
Valuation Metrics
P/E 15.95 17.55 18.28 16.02 16.17 15.57 14.88 14.18 19.51
P/B 4.04 4.25 4.47 3.82 3.71 3.42 3.31 3.36 3.99
EV/Sales 1.27 1.33 1.35 1.22 1.24 1.21 1.14 1.04 1.4
EV/EBIT 14.08 12.67 12.58 12.18 11.43 10.93 14.25
EV/EBITDA 10.04 10.75 11.55 10.37 10.38 9.99 9.34 8.96 11.58
Dividend Yield 2.98 2.95 2.87 3.23 2.9 3.18 2.9 3.01 2.34
Fundamentals
Gross Margin 29.52 29.61 30.08 30.97 30.63 29.74 30.48
Op. Margin 9.5 9.55 9.57 9.8 9.91 9.47 9.74
Profit Margin 6.23 6.22 6.06 6.5 6.21 5.6 6.35
ROA 10.36 9.81 8.34 8.24 8.39 9.58 9.35 9.44 9.16
ROE 24.79 24.26 23.37 22.84 22.02 24.23 23.35 22.64 21.24
Periodicity: Annual; Currency: USD; Units: Billion
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Key highlights - Leverage & Liquidity
FieldCY
2014CY
2013 CurrentCY
2012CY
2011CY
2010CY
2009CY
2008CY
2007CY
2006
Current Ratio 1.13 1.13 1.15 1.15 1.22 1.09 1.04 1.04Net Debt to EBITDA 1.34 1.43 1.54 1.51 1.51 1.55 1.31 1.51 1.5 1.3
Total Debt To EV 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.2 0.18 0.21 0.16 0.14
Total Debt to Total Equity 87.62 84.3 82.91 78.53 68.42 82.98 71.36 63.12
Total Debt to Total Assets 31.31 30.38 29.99 29.42 27.22 30.36 27.99 24.84
Periodicity: Annual; Currency: USD; Units: Billion
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Fundamentals - Income Statement
FieldCY
2014CY
2013 CurrentCY
2012CY
2011CY
2010CY
2009CY
2008CY
2007CY
2006
Income & Expenses per Share
Sales 383.76 367.23 361.73 348.87 330.89 297.51 281.46 288.18 247.82 211.38
Gross Margin % 32.72 32.66 29.52 29.61 30.08 30.97 30.63 29.74 30.48 31.19
EBIT 34.6 33.58 32.47 29.54 28.1 27.45 24.27 20.52
Margin % 9.5 9.55 9.57 9.8 9.91 9.47 9.74 9.72
EBITDA 48.5 45.31 42.15 41.04 39.38 36.01 34.35 33.49 29.88 25.56
Margin % 11.65 11.76 11.9 12.1 12.21 11.62 12.06 12.09
R&D Expense 1.75 1.71 1.56 1.55 1.61 1.76 1.49 1.41
Earnings 26.43 24.01 23.05 22.51 20.75 19.5 18.43 17.4 15.36 13.14
Earnings before XO 21.78 21.15 19.75 18.88 16.81 14.46 15.43 13.05
Diluted Earnings from Cont. Ops 23.05 22.51 20.75 19.5 18.43 17.4 15.36 13.14
Earnings, +ve 26.43 24.01 23.05 22.51 20.75 19.5 18.43 17.44 15.36 13.21
Periodicity: Annual; Currency: USD; Units: Billion
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Fundamentals - Balance Sheet
FieldCY
2014CY
2013 CurrentCY
2012CY
2011CY
2010CY
2009CY
2008CY
2007CY
2006
Assets per ShareCash & Equivalents 19.94 19.37 16.34 15.23 12.94 11.41 8.63 8.03
Current Assets 83.21 82.59 82.53 71.6 63.51 62.65 57 49.62
Goodwill 63.11 61.62 59.14 56.28 50.05 47.78 46.18 31.6
Total Assets 273.43 268.2 261.81 240.51 212.73 203.6 193.93 166.66
Liabilities & Equity per ShareCurrent Liabilities 73.94 73.07 71.59 62.5 52.16 57.46 55.01 47.63
Total Debt 85.62 81.47 78.51 70.75 57.9 61.82 54.28 41.39
Total Liabilities 175.72 171.55 167.11 150.41 128.11 129.18 117.87 101.09
Retained Earnings 36.07 35.21 36.23 35.17 34.7 25.11 30.49 32.68
Book Value 104.24 99.17 94.29 94.43 90.4 88.77 82.89 73.34 75.05 64.38
Tang Book Value -7.76 -7.36 -5.68 -2.81 5.05 0.55 4.99 17.22
Total Equity 97.72 96.64 94.7 90.09 84.62 74.51 76.06 65.58
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Fundamentals - Cash Flow
FieldCY
2014CY
2013 CurrentCY
2012CY
2011CY
2010CY
2009CY
2008CY
2007CY
2006
Cash Flow Items per ShareCash From Operations 34.91 31.75 32.06 31.24 26.68 25.65 26.98 23.67 20.01 18.82Cash Flow From Investing -14.41 -14.46 -8.44 -11.84 -10.6 -9.78 -12.99 -7.78Cash From Financing -14.76 -14.61 -18.23 -12.51 -14.98 -12.34 -6.61 -12.15
CapEx -10.47 -10.15 -9.75 -9.49 -9.84 -8.55 -8.63 -9.44 -8.95 -7.81
Free Cash Flow 24.44 21.62 22.41 21.82 17 17.21 18.37 14.3 11.13 11.03
Dividends 12.57 12.43 12.09 11.64 9.73 9.64 7.94 7.42 7 5.87
Dividends, Gross 12.09 11.64 9.73 9.64 7.94 7.42 7 5.87
Dividends, Net 12.09 11.64 9.73 9.64 7.94 7.42 7 5.87
Reference Items
FCF Yield 5.32 6.05 5.07 5.67 6.7 5.8 3.71 4.11
Dividend Yield 2.98 2.95 2.87 3.23 2.9 3.18 2.9 3.01 2.34 2.19
Periodicity: Annual; Currency: USD; Units: Billion
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Financial Analysis:Margins
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Operating Profit Margins
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Gross Margins
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T12M EBITDA Margins
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Profit Margins
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Financial Analysis:Earnings
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Earnings per Share
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Financial Analysis:Price Ratios
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Price/FCF
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Price/Earnings
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Price/Book
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Price/Sales
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Current EV/T12M EBITDA
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Financial Analysis:Equity Returns
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Return on Assets
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Return on Equity
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Return on Capital
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Financial Analysis:Income Statement
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Revenues
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Operating Profit Margins T12M
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Valuation Analysis
Sector Overview
Business Analysis
Economic
Analysis
Financial Analysis
Valuation Analysis
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Valuation AnalysisSector Valuation - Absolute
Absolute Basis Median Current
P/Trailing E 18.00 20.10
P/Forward E 17.10 17.60
P/B 4.00 4.50
P/S 1.00 1.10
P/CF 12.60 14.10
Relative Valuation
Relative to SP500
Median Current
P/Trailing E 1.10 1.30
P/Forward E 1.10 1.20
P/B 1.60 1.80
P/S 0.70 0.70
P/CF 1.30 1.30
• Sector is expensive relative to history
• Sector is expensive relative to S&P 500
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Valuation Analysis
Absolute Basis
S&P 500
Consumer Staples
WMT.I
CVS.I KO.I PM.I PG.I
Super centers
Retail - Drugs
Soft Drinks
Tobacco
Household Products
P/Trailing E
15.1
19.0 16.6 16.4 20.9 19.50 19.40
P/Forward E
14.4
16.6 15.3 13.9 17.9 14.90 18.40
P/B 2.3 4.2 3.5 2.1 5.50 47.50 4.40
P/S 1.4 1.0 0.40 0.60 2.40 3.50 2.40
P/CF 10 13.4 10.9 11.40 14.60 14.80 15.0
• Relative Valuation – Industries/Companies
• Valuation varies widely amongst industries and companies within the sector
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Valuation Analysis
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Recommendation• The SIM portfolio should maintain its overweight to
the Consumer Staples sector. o We recommend increasing the overweight from 189 bps to
250 bps.o We recommend trimming the portfolio’s exposure to financials
and allocating those funds to consumer staples
• Rationale o The markets have run up significantly over the past 3 years. o When the current cyclical bull market turns, consumer staples
will outperform other sectors with more cyclical exposure. o Earnings are more predictable than cyclical sectorso This makes consumer staples more attractive in the event of a
market pullback.
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Q & A
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Appendix
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Spread Analysis (5yrs.)