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05/06/2014 1 Consumption and Development of China’s Steel Market Li Xinchuang China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute PLAN FOR FUTURE STUDY FOR DEVELOPMENT June, 2014 in Pairs, France Content Outlining of Chinese Steel Market Chinese Steel Demand Already at Peak or Not Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years Overcapacity and Impact of Market Reform MPI——Your Reliable Partner 2 China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute http://www.mpi1972.com

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Page 1: Consumption and Development of - OECD.org 5. MPI-CISA.pdf · 2016-03-29 · which imposed great difficulties for some steel companies to survive. 2. Since 2000, the price index of

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Consumption and Development of

China’s Steel Market

Li Xinchuang

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

PLAN FOR FUTURE STUDY FOR DEVELOPMENT

June, 2014 in Pairs, France

Content

Ⅰ Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

Chinese Steel Demand Already at Peak or Not

Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years

Overcapacity and Impact of Market Reform

MPI——Your Reliable Partner

2

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute http://www.mpi1972.com

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Ⅰ Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

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http://www.mpi1972.com

1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

● Since implementation of reform and opening, Chinese market consumed more and more

steel along with accelerated growth of China’s national economy.

● In 2013, the real steel consumption was 693 million tones, 21.7 times of the same in 1980.

● Increase rate of steel consumption has slowed down due to transformation of the

economic growth mode and adjustment of economic structure.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

● Long product, mainly refer to rebar and wire for construction, still occupied the largest

proportion of steel consumption.

● Flat product consumption proportion decreased since the financial crisis. Comparing with

long product, plate and strip experienced more serious problem of overcapacity.

Pipe

Plate Long

product

Pipe

Plate Long

product

Long

product

Pipe

Plate

Pipe

Plate

Long

product

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

● The construction sector is still a main steel consumer although the volume declined

gradually.

● The machinery sector, with an increase in proportion, is the second largest steel consumer

only after the construction sector.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

● East and Central South China consumed largest amount of steel, accounted to 61.4% of total consumption. Steel

consumption in East China were mostly concentrated in Jiangsu Province, Shanghai and Zhejiang Province, while

the same in Central South China concentrated in Guangdong Province.

● The steel consumption in North China will be expected to increase rapidly under the circumstance of integrated

development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

Steel consumption by regions in 2013

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

Varieties Market share in 2013 Rail steel 98.1%

Large section 97.3%

Medium/small section 99.9%

Bar 99.4%

Rebar 100.0%

Coil (Wire) 99.6%

Ultra heavy plate 99.2%

Heavy plate 99.2%

Medium plate 97.1%

Hot-rolled sheet 96.6%

Cold-rolled sheet 98.2%

Medium/heavy wide strip 98.8%

Hot-rolled wide strip 98.6%

Cold-rolled wide strip 92.0%

Hot-rolled narrow strip 99.8%

Cold-rolled narrow strip 97.7%

Coated plate (strip) 91.8%

Organic coated plate

(strip) 91.3%

Electrical plate (strip) 92.3%

Seamless pipe 99.1%

Welding pipe 99.6%

Others 100.0%

● The domestic

market share of

majority of 22

varieties in the table

have already

exceeded 95%. Some

specific varieties

such as electrical

steel strip and coated

strip have already

occupied more than

90% of market share,

achieving the target

of 12th Five-year Plan

period in advance.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

Top five of import volume of steel

varieties in 2013

Top five of import price of steel varieties

in 2013

Varieties Import price

(USD/t)

Railway switchs 15,014

Shim of splice bar 9,434

Boiler pipe 6,884

Hot-rolled stainless narrow

strip 6,491

Sleeper(railroad tie) 4,750

Varieties Volume

(104 t) Percentage

Galvanized sheet (strip) 255 18.11%

Hot-rolled medium/heavy

strip 138 9.80%

Hot-rolled medium plate 96 6.82%

Hot-rolled normal wide

strip 79 5.64%

Non-oriented silicon steel 49 3.50%

Steel 1408 100.00%

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1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

Trend of import and export price of steel products in China from

January 2001 up to January 2014

1. Generally the import price of steel products in China is higher than export price, as well as quality

and added value of imported items stand at the higher level in comparison with that of exported items.

Since 2010, the price difference between import and export maintained in the scope of 300-400 USD/t.

2. From 2001 up to 2008, the import and export price of steel products in China showed a rising trend.

Both import and export price declined evidently in 2008 affecting by the financial crisis. Although the

price increase witnessed in 2010, both import and export price of steel products in China went down

gradually from 2012 up to now affecting by excess supply.

Import price Export price

Unit: USD/t

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market

Trend of import and export price of steel products in China from

January 2001 up to April 2014

1. Since the fourth quarter of 2011, the price index of steel products in China was being kept below

120 points over a long period of time, and even down to around 100 points especially from 2013 up

to now. The steel business has been running at a substantial loss with a tightened capital chain,

which imposed great difficulties for some steel companies to survive.

2. Since 2000, the price index of steel products in China showed three peaks i.e. from the second half

of 2004 up to the first half of 2005, 2007 up to the first half of 2008, which can be deemed as the

period with highest profitability of steel companies, as well as the end of 2010 up to the first half of

2011.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

Ⅱ Overcapacity and Impact of Market Reform

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特殊矛盾

1. Overcapacity of China’s steel sector

■Recognition of overcapacity of China’s

steel sector

Disputation: no overcapacity or no serious

overcapacity

Capacity utilization

rate Real capacity Market Profitability

Volume of

overcapacity

The capacity

utilization rate

declined evidently

from the third quarter

of 2011. The rate was

being kept in the

scope of 70%-75%

over two years, lower

than the security

value.

The above-mentioned

capacity utilization rate

is calculated on the

basis of design value.

And the real capacity

should be much more

bigger than the design

value with consideration

of improvement of

technologies and

matching facilities.

The market rule cannot

work properly. Many

companies have to

maintain the production

with difficulties driven

by other factors instead

of the market rule. The

existing rate should be

at lower level from the

view of market.

Profitability stands at

the lowest level among

other industries. The

steel business is still in

loss considering return

on assets, profit gained

from diversified

operation etc.

The overcapacity

volume of China’s

steel sector is more

than 200 million tones,

which equals to the

total capacity of Japan

and USA, involving

700 billion investment

as well as 400,000

employees.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

Reviewed and determined from five aspects

Serious

overcapacity

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Industrialization

and urbanization

still under

progress

Industrialization

and urbanization

already

completed

Large

volume of

overcapacity

Higher level of

concentration Lower level of

concentration

Europe,

USA and

Japan

China Small

volume of

overcapacity

● Overcapacity of China’s steel sector represents

a distinctive characteristic, which is different from

the situation in Europe, USA and Japan.

1. Overcapacity of China’s steel sector

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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冶金工业规划研究院 http://www.mpi1972.com

主要矛盾

●Central Economic Work Conference

● Economic Work Conference in the

First Quarter of 2013

●Economic Work Conference in the

First Half of 2013

● Inner-party Democratic Meeting of

Hebei Province

● Conference of Standing Committee of

the CPC Central Committee Political

Bureau

▲ Overcapacity is becoming an

outstanding problem affecting the

operation of economic system. The blind

expansion of capacity should be prohibited

complying with the principle of present and

long-term benefit.

▲ The further blind expansion of

overcapacity sectors must be prohibited

resolutely.

1. Overcapacity of China’s steel sector

16

Fifteen

tasks

Sixty

plans Six

evolvements

One

objective

Substantial influence on the general layout of future development of the steel sector

2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector

http://www.mpi1972.com

More than

three

hundred

items

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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Economic reform is the key point of comprehensively

deepening reforms

The government should withdraw from micromanagement. To establish the entrance

and exit mechanism suitable with the market economy and in compliance with the

market regulation. The resources allocation should be determined by market price and

competition. Gradually erase regional protection such as subsidies, favorable policies

etc.

To establish a proper relationship between the government and the market; to secure

the decisive role of market in resources allocation, and to perform the government

duties comprehensively and correctly

Inadequate and irregular market

mechanism

Unfair competition system

Improper function of the entrance

system

Imperfect of exit mechanism

Pricing mechanism cannot work

properly.

In charge of investment and

implement project approval

Land allocation

Iron ore mine and coal allocation

Lead merging and regrouping

Regional protection including

subsidies, procurement priority etc

Improper function of the

market

More involvement of the

government

2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector

(1) One relationship and two roles

Abstraction

Future

development

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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Stick to and perfect the basic economic system

State-owned capital stock ownership in state-owned steel enterprises declined

gradually. Operation efficiency of state-owned steel enterprises will be improved.

Separate the political and business role of enterprises’ management. Government

should withdraw from the micromanagement of enterprises’ operation.

Actively develop the diversified ownership economy: strength the state-owned

assets supervision with capital management serving as its main body

Promote the state-owned enterprises to perfect modern enterprise system

It is difficult for state-owned

enterprises to adapt to varied

requirements raised by the market due

to inflexible operation system.

Low efficiency because duties, rights

and interests cannot match each other

properly, final decision only can be

made slowly, as well as no action will

be taken against investment failure.

Inflexible employment system in the

state-owned enterprises due to the

status and duty level of staff are

difficult to be changed.

Private ownership and foreign

companies will participated in the

regrouping and reform of state-owned

steel enterprises

Perfect the management and staff

stock ownership

Further perfect the corporation

management, reasonable increase the

proportion of market-oriented

recruitment, and establish a

professional management system.

Problems Measures to be implemented

2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

(2) Mixed-ownership, reform of state-owned enterprises

Abstraction

Future

development

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Establish new open economic system

International development level and competitive power of Chinese steel companies will be

improved. The word class multinational corporation emerge.

Entrance of foreign companies is good for promoting optimization and perfection of

industrial management and market supervision.

Accelerated foster the powerful units capable of participating in international economic

cooperation and competition

Widen investment access: further liberalization will be achieved in general

manufacturing

Carry out reform of overseas investment approval, perfect consulate protection

mechanism, and provide varied service including rights and interests protection,

investment promotion, risk alarm etc.

Huge risk to be born by companies go

abroad; lack of protection of rights and

interests; investment management

procedure to be further simplified to

improve efficiency

As per the industrial policies, foreign

investors are not permitted to hold the

stock of domestic steel companies,

which limited the introduction of

advanced technologies and

management ideas.

Provide advantages for steel

companies to go abroad such as more

support and protection measures

Liberalized the limitation of foreign

investment holding conditionally and

gradually

Set up and perfect foreign investment

approval system

Problems Measures to be implemented

2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector

(3) Establish new open economic system

Abstraction

Future

development

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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Accelerated construction of ecological civilization system

Steel companies should pay more cost on environmental issues. Some unqualified

companies and facilities will be eliminated by force i.e. the environmental issues will be

deemed as the precondition of survival and development of steel companies.

Prosperous development of environmental facilities, technologies, waste discharge rights

trading, energy saving volume trading, carbon exchange etc

Improve the property rights system for natural resources and the administration of

their use

Draw a “red line” for ecological protection

Establish a system of paid use for natural resources and ecological compensation

Large energy consumption, huge

amount of emission, big energy

consumption and emission of unit

added value, many environmental

cases remained, and only small cost to

be paid on law breaking.

Disorder and low-efficiency

exploitation of resources

The steel industry layout is not in

compliance with resource

environmental bear capacity.

More powerful implementation of

environmental protection law; perfect

waste discharge permission and total

volume control system.

More stricter discharge standards will be

implemented.

Strengthen the supervision of iron ore

exploitation, and draw up balance sheet

and auxiliary management for iron ore

resources.

Problems Measures to be implemented

2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector

(4) Ecological civilization and environmental protection

Abstraction

Future

development

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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Deepening reform of science and technology system

More reasonable allocation of technical resources of the steel sector; decrease of repetitive

waste; R & D and utilization rate of key and common-used technologies increased by large

scale; self-innovation ability of steel companies improved evidently; a batch of integrated

technological facilities appeared to lead the development of world metallurgy.

Integrate planning and resources of science and technology system; perfect the

support mechanism of the government to basic, strategical, leading and common

research

Emphasize the companies as the main body of technical innovation; encourage the

leading role of large-scale enterprises in innovation; perfect the system of paid use for

natural resources and ecological compensation.

Perfect the market-oriented mechanism for technical innovation

Weak self-innovation ability

Technical improvement mainly depends

on re-innovation on the basis of

introduced technologies. It is still

needed to improve the integration ability

although the same has already

improved.

Due to lack of centralization platform

and general plan, the research power is

separated, which causes repetitive

waste.

Break the administrative limitation among

administration department, technology

department, industrial department, industrial

association and steel companies to improve

top-level innovative engineering by

integrated power of policy maker, resources

distributor and innovative main body.

Establish a industrial centralization platform

of key and common-used technologies to

create a new system with cooperation, risk-

sharing and mutual benefit.

Problems Measures to be implemented

2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector

(5) Technological innovation

Abstraction

Future

development

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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Deepening reform of fiscal and taxation system, perfect

financial market system

Set up a fair and well-organized market gradually; prohibit the circumstance of bad

money drives out good; more freedom of financing; market-oriented and high

efficiency financing mode adopted.

Legislative management of favorable taxation policy especially for regional favorable

policy in compliance with unified taxation, balanced duty and fair competition.

Advance value-added tax reform, energy and pollution-intensive products will be

subject to a tax, accelerate the reform of resources tax, change environmental-

protection fee into an environmental tax.

Improve multi-level capital market system, advance reform of stock issue registration.

Some steel companies enjoy

subsidies of business tax farming

Financing with difficulties and high

expenditure

Erase and regulate unreasonable

favorable taxation policies

Change business tax into value-added

tax in the construction sector, stop the

malignant competition of construction

steel sale such as no invoice issue.

Abolish stock issue approval, and

establish a smooth and high-efficiency

direct financing channel for steel

companies.

Problems Measures to be implemented

2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector

Abstraction

Future

development

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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Ⅲ Chinese Steel Demand Already at Peak or Not

24

1. New change of macro economy

http://www.mpi1972.com

A new change of macro economy

□ The historical change of Chinese industrial structure

was viewed in 2013 i.e. added value of the tertiary

industry accounted for 46.1% of GDP exceeding that of

the secondary industry for the first time. This

circumstance represented to some extent that Chinese

economy has already stepped into the critical period for

industrial structure transformation.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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The other new change of macro economy

1. New change of macro economy

In 2013, the fixed assets investment, excluding the investment for farming household was

amounted to 43.6528 trillion yuan, increased by 19.6% normally comparing with that of 2012,

while the actual growth was 19.2% after deducting the price factors. It was the first time for the

fixed assets investment growth below 20% since 2003. In 2014 (Jan-Apr), the growth rate

declined further to 17.3%.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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2. Transition period of China’s steel sector

http://www.mpi1972.com

Crude steel consumption per capita (kg/person)

□ China has stepped into mid-late period of

industrialization.

□ Crude steel consumption per capita ranks one of the

world’s highest level

□ Growth rate of consumption decreased evidently,

investment in the steel sector declined

□ D e v e l o p i n g Mode transformation and structural

adjustment; strength of steel consumption per unit

investment decreased

□Limited development space due to energy resources and

environmental issues

□ steel upgrading, and consumption intensity will

decrease China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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2. Transition period of China’s steel sector

http://www.mpi1972.com

Summary: China’s steel sector has already stepped into a transition period to the new era,

as the accelerated expansion has terminated. The whole industry has entered, and will be

maintained at the peak top over a long period of time.

Phase 1: Fluctuating

development in the

initial stage

Phase 2 (6.6% increase on

average/year):

Stable development in the

beginning stage

Phase 3(16.6% increase

on average/year): Leap-forward

development in the

accelerating stage

Phase 4: Innovative development in the

transition stage (transition period from

Phase 3 to Phase 4)

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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2. Transition period of China’s steel sector

http://www.mpi1972.com

Refer to the USA, Germany etc, at

peak value, demand in these countries

declined significantly affecting by

outside crisis.

Refer to China: will be a peak range

instead of a peak point

▪Chinese government is more powerful

to control and regulate economic

development

▪ Impact of international market is

limited to Chinese steel products, due

to most of steel products are consumed

by domestic market.

▪Due to wide area, large population,

unbalanced development between

urban and rural and among regions,

developed, medium-developed and

undeveloped regions can be deemed

as a continuous driving power for the

consumption increase.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute http://www.mpi1972.com

Future economic development

2. Transition period of China’s steel sector

GDP

growth

New

urbanization New industrialization

and new strategical

industries

As per the guideline of 12th Five-year Plan, GDP grows at a

rate of 7% annually in the duration from 2011 to 2015.

Up to 2020, urbanization

rate of residential

population should be 60%.

This rate increases by an

average of 0.9% annually

from 2014 to 2020.

The comprehensive

service facilities will be

equipped for 100% of urban

communities.

The coverage of affordabl

housing will increase from

12.5% in 2012 to 23% in

2020.

According to the report approved by the

18th National Congress of CPC, GDP and

incomes of both rural and urban residents

will be doubled up to 2020 comparing with

that in 2010. From 2014 to 2020, GDP will

keep growing at a rate of 6.7% annually.

Meaning of new industrialization: high-tech, resources saving economy, environmental friendly, favorable

social and economic benefit, fully play of human resources advantage, reasonable and harmonious industrial

structure, drive power of industrial transformation and upgrading.

New strategical industries will be the support and pilot sector of national economy. As per the guideline of

12th Five-year Plan, the added value of new strategical industries will account for approximate 8% of GDP.

29

Ⅳ Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in

China in the Coming Years

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1. Scrap resources in China and development of EAF steel

http://www.mpi1972.com

In 2013, the scrap supply in China was 92.465 million tons, among of which 39.8 million tones of self -produced scrap,

accounting for 43% of total supply, 48.2 million tones of general scrap, accounting for 52.1%of total and 4.465 million

tons of import scrap, accounting for 4.8% of total supply. The domestic scrap market in 2013 maintained the situation

of limited supply and inadequate demand with representations as follow:

Due to more stricter cost control, typical medium/large scale enterprises didn’t show a strong demand of scrap.

The national taxation favorable policies has not been recovered, which was a severe setback to the activity of

scrap manufacturers

The lawful scrap market was impacted by illegal scrap products.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

单位

:万

进口废钢 社会废钢 自产废钢

Import scrap General scrap Self-produced scrap

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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1. Scrap resources in China and development of EAF steel

http://www.mpi1972.com

Scrap consumption increased along with the

accelerated growth of crude steel output. The

scrap consumption per ton steel production in

China represents obviously that the scrap

supply is still limited, and the competitive power

of the cost of scrap is weaker than that of the

pig iron.

Since 2001, the comprehensive scrap

consumption per ton steel production in China

decreased slowly year by year, from 226kg/t in

2001 to 111kg/t in 2013, with average annual

drop of 5.8%. In recent years, the scrap

consumption per ton steel production shows a

fluctuated decrease. Take the EAF steel

production, with higher scrap consumption as

an example, the scrap consumption per ton

steel production was 821kg in 2001, and this

volume decreased to 543kg/t in 2013, with the

average annual drop of 3.4%.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

废钢

消费

量:

万吨

粗钢

产量

:万

钢产量 废钢消费量

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

废钢综合单耗和电炉废钢单耗:kg/t

粗钢

产量

:万

粗钢产量 废钢综合单耗 电炉废钢单耗

Steel output Scrap

consumption

Scra

p

co

nsu

mp

tion

:10

4t

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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1. Scrap resources in China and development of EAF steel

http://www.mpi1972.com

In 2013, EAF steel output in China was nearly 70 million tones (estimated value), accounting for about 9% of total

crude steel output, which followed the decreasing EAF steel percentage in recent years, declined 12.4 percentage

points in comparison with 21.4% in1990, declined 14.2 percentage points in comparison with 23.2% in 1993, which

was the historical high of EAF steel output.

EAF steel output in East China was 24.4 million tones, accounting for 37.7% of total output. And the same in Central

South China was 15.54 million tones, accounting for 24%. The EAF steel output of both East China and Central South

China were accounted for 61.7% of total output. The EAF steel output top 5 were Jiangsu Province, Hubei Province,

Inner Mongolia, Fujian Province and Liaoning Province, the total output of which was accounted for 52.7% of total

output.

华北

1414 21.8%

华东

2440 37.7%

中南

1554 24.0%

东北

398 6.1%

西南

392 6.1%

西北

279 4.3%

EAF steel output (104 t)

Percentage of EAF steel (%)

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

34

2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years

http://www.mpi1972.com

Scrap recovery and manufacturing

system : Perfection of scrap recovery system,

degree of industrialization, cooperation

mode with steel plants, etc

Scrap resources volume Output and productivity of

general scrap

Development of EAF

steel: EAF steel output,

percentage, development

speed etc

Development of crude steel output Peak value, duration time, degree of output

decrease etc

Will There be a

Big Scrap

Surplus in

China in the

Coming Years

A

D B

C

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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35

2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years

http://www.mpi1972.com

In recent years, the EAF steel output maintains

about 29% all over the world. Except for Chinese

Mainland, EAF steel output in other countries is

approximate 47%. The percentage of EAF steel

in most main steel producing countries is higher

than that in China. The percentage of EAF steel

in the USA, rising from 1950s, has already

reached 60%, while same in Europe and Japan

was 40% and 23% respectively already.

Among steel producing countries with more than

40 million tones crude steel annual output, only

the USA and India enjoy the EAF steel output

more than 60%, while 20%-40% in any other

countries except for China. Normally increase of

percentage of EAF steel will be restricted

between 20% -40% and then improved

fluctuated within this scope. Development of

EAF steel in Japan shows this typical

characteristic. The percentage of EAF steel in

Japan has exceeded 20% in 1950s over a short

period of time, and then decreased soon. Since

the value back to more than 20% in 1970s, the

percentage of EAF steel in Japan maintained

within 20%-40% over 40 years up to now.

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

36

2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years

http://www.mpi1972.com

It is estimated that the development and EAF steel in China will show following characteristics

The percentage of EAF steel in China will break the restriction range of 20% ~ 40%, developed

with higher speed than Europe, America and Japan.

America, Europe and Japan spend 25-30 years to improve the percentage of EAF steel from 10%

up to 30%. Due to large scale and accelerated expansion of crude steel output in China, there will be

a explosion period of scrap recovery in the future. Moreover it is very likely to witness the overlapping

of explosive expansion of scrap resources and decrease of crude steel output. So the degree of

adequacy of scrap in China will grow rapidly.

The exterior conditions such as environmental issues, energy resources, land etc will be developed

in favorable of improvement of EAF steel production.

Developed technological support, industrial base is available for development of EAF steel

Three stages of development of EAF steel in China

Fluctuating development in the initial stage: percentage of EAF steel in China will increase up to

20%

Accelerated growth: percentage of EAF steel in China will increase from 20% up to 40%-50%

Balance stage: percentage of EAF steel in China will increase continuously to reach a new balance

level

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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37

2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years

http://www.mpi1972.com

No Condition Development of EAF steel

Fast speed Slow speed Middle

1 Steel output

●Low peak value

●Reach the peak value early

●Short duration of peak top

●High peak value

●Reach the peak value later

●Long duration of peak top

Circumstances in

between

development at

fast speed and

slow speed.

2 Scrap resources ●Volume of general scrap increased rapidly

●Perfection of scrap recovery system

●Volume of general scrap increased slowly

● Undeveloped scrap recovery system

3 Power supply

●Sufficient power supply

● Supplied at lower price

●Insufficient power supply

● Supplied at higher price

4 Environmental

energy

● Environmental cost born by enterprises

● Strict implementation of energy restriction

●Environmental cost born by the society

●Loose implementation of energy restriction

Percentage of EAF steel(%)

Middle speed

Slow speed

Fast speed

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

38

2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years

http://www.mpi1972.com

Summary: it is difficult to see a big

scrap surplus in China over a long

period of time.

The crude steel output in

China will be kept in the

peak top over a long

period of time. There will

be a strong demand of

scrap.

The fast development of

steel production and

consumption in China

appeared since 2000,

mainly with construction

steel. And the peak of

scrap output can be

witnessed in 20 even 30

years later.

From long-term view,

percentage of EAF

steel in China will

increase gradually to

change the structure of

steel producing process

and to improve the

scrap consumption

China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute

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Ⅴ MPI-your reliable partner

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MPI-your reliable partner

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Established under the approval of the State Council (1972)

One of the first engineering consulting institutes with First-grade qualifications

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The employees who have obtained doctor’s and master’s

degrees account for 90% of the staff, those who have been

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Furthermore, MPI, with its expertise covering all the fields and

the whole process of steel and nonferrous industry,

possesses a unique advantage to provide an all round

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冶金工业规划研究院

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冶金工业规划研究院

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