consumption and development of - oecd.org 5. mpi-cisa.pdf · 2016-03-29 · which imposed great...
TRANSCRIPT
05/06/2014
1
Consumption and Development of
China’s Steel Market
Li Xinchuang
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
PLAN FOR FUTURE STUDY FOR DEVELOPMENT
June, 2014 in Pairs, France
Content
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
Ⅴ
Ⅰ Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
Chinese Steel Demand Already at Peak or Not
Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years
Overcapacity and Impact of Market Reform
MPI——Your Reliable Partner
Ⅱ
2
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute http://www.mpi1972.com
05/06/2014
2
Ⅰ Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
4
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
● Since implementation of reform and opening, Chinese market consumed more and more
steel along with accelerated growth of China’s national economy.
● In 2013, the real steel consumption was 693 million tones, 21.7 times of the same in 1980.
● Increase rate of steel consumption has slowed down due to transformation of the
economic growth mode and adjustment of economic structure.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
3
5
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
● Long product, mainly refer to rebar and wire for construction, still occupied the largest
proportion of steel consumption.
● Flat product consumption proportion decreased since the financial crisis. Comparing with
long product, plate and strip experienced more serious problem of overcapacity.
Pipe
Plate Long
product
Pipe
Plate Long
product
Long
product
Pipe
Plate
Pipe
Plate
Long
product
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
6
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
● The construction sector is still a main steel consumer although the volume declined
gradually.
● The machinery sector, with an increase in proportion, is the second largest steel consumer
only after the construction sector.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
4
7
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
● East and Central South China consumed largest amount of steel, accounted to 61.4% of total consumption. Steel
consumption in East China were mostly concentrated in Jiangsu Province, Shanghai and Zhejiang Province, while
the same in Central South China concentrated in Guangdong Province.
● The steel consumption in North China will be expected to increase rapidly under the circumstance of integrated
development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
Steel consumption by regions in 2013
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
8
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
Varieties Market share in 2013 Rail steel 98.1%
Large section 97.3%
Medium/small section 99.9%
Bar 99.4%
Rebar 100.0%
Coil (Wire) 99.6%
Ultra heavy plate 99.2%
Heavy plate 99.2%
Medium plate 97.1%
Hot-rolled sheet 96.6%
Cold-rolled sheet 98.2%
Medium/heavy wide strip 98.8%
Hot-rolled wide strip 98.6%
Cold-rolled wide strip 92.0%
Hot-rolled narrow strip 99.8%
Cold-rolled narrow strip 97.7%
Coated plate (strip) 91.8%
Organic coated plate
(strip) 91.3%
Electrical plate (strip) 92.3%
Seamless pipe 99.1%
Welding pipe 99.6%
Others 100.0%
● The domestic
market share of
majority of 22
varieties in the table
have already
exceeded 95%. Some
specific varieties
such as electrical
steel strip and coated
strip have already
occupied more than
90% of market share,
achieving the target
of 12th Five-year Plan
period in advance.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
5
9
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
Top five of import volume of steel
varieties in 2013
Top five of import price of steel varieties
in 2013
Varieties Import price
(USD/t)
Railway switchs 15,014
Shim of splice bar 9,434
Boiler pipe 6,884
Hot-rolled stainless narrow
strip 6,491
Sleeper(railroad tie) 4,750
Varieties Volume
(104 t) Percentage
Galvanized sheet (strip) 255 18.11%
Hot-rolled medium/heavy
strip 138 9.80%
Hot-rolled medium plate 96 6.82%
Hot-rolled normal wide
strip 79 5.64%
Non-oriented silicon steel 49 3.50%
Steel 1408 100.00%
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
10
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
Trend of import and export price of steel products in China from
January 2001 up to January 2014
1. Generally the import price of steel products in China is higher than export price, as well as quality
and added value of imported items stand at the higher level in comparison with that of exported items.
Since 2010, the price difference between import and export maintained in the scope of 300-400 USD/t.
2. From 2001 up to 2008, the import and export price of steel products in China showed a rising trend.
Both import and export price declined evidently in 2008 affecting by the financial crisis. Although the
price increase witnessed in 2010, both import and export price of steel products in China went down
gradually from 2012 up to now affecting by excess supply.
Import price Export price
Unit: USD/t
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
6
11
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
1. Outlining of Chinese Steel Market
Trend of import and export price of steel products in China from
January 2001 up to April 2014
1. Since the fourth quarter of 2011, the price index of steel products in China was being kept below
120 points over a long period of time, and even down to around 100 points especially from 2013 up
to now. The steel business has been running at a substantial loss with a tightened capital chain,
which imposed great difficulties for some steel companies to survive.
2. Since 2000, the price index of steel products in China showed three peaks i.e. from the second half
of 2004 up to the first half of 2005, 2007 up to the first half of 2008, which can be deemed as the
period with highest profitability of steel companies, as well as the end of 2010 up to the first half of
2011.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
Ⅱ Overcapacity and Impact of Market Reform
05/06/2014
7
13
http://www.mpi1972.com
特殊矛盾
1. Overcapacity of China’s steel sector
■Recognition of overcapacity of China’s
steel sector
Disputation: no overcapacity or no serious
overcapacity
Capacity utilization
rate Real capacity Market Profitability
Volume of
overcapacity
The capacity
utilization rate
declined evidently
from the third quarter
of 2011. The rate was
being kept in the
scope of 70%-75%
over two years, lower
than the security
value.
The above-mentioned
capacity utilization rate
is calculated on the
basis of design value.
And the real capacity
should be much more
bigger than the design
value with consideration
of improvement of
technologies and
matching facilities.
The market rule cannot
work properly. Many
companies have to
maintain the production
with difficulties driven
by other factors instead
of the market rule. The
existing rate should be
at lower level from the
view of market.
Profitability stands at
the lowest level among
other industries. The
steel business is still in
loss considering return
on assets, profit gained
from diversified
operation etc.
The overcapacity
volume of China’s
steel sector is more
than 200 million tones,
which equals to the
total capacity of Japan
and USA, involving
700 billion investment
as well as 400,000
employees.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
Reviewed and determined from five aspects
Serious
overcapacity
14
(4)
http://www.mpi1972.com
Industrialization
and urbanization
still under
progress
Industrialization
and urbanization
already
completed
Large
volume of
overcapacity
Higher level of
concentration Lower level of
concentration
Europe,
USA and
Japan
China Small
volume of
overcapacity
● Overcapacity of China’s steel sector represents
a distinctive characteristic, which is different from
the situation in Europe, USA and Japan.
1. Overcapacity of China’s steel sector
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
8
15
冶金工业规划研究院 http://www.mpi1972.com
主要矛盾
●Central Economic Work Conference
● Economic Work Conference in the
First Quarter of 2013
●Economic Work Conference in the
First Half of 2013
● Inner-party Democratic Meeting of
Hebei Province
● Conference of Standing Committee of
the CPC Central Committee Political
Bureau
▲ Overcapacity is becoming an
outstanding problem affecting the
operation of economic system. The blind
expansion of capacity should be prohibited
complying with the principle of present and
long-term benefit.
▲ The further blind expansion of
overcapacity sectors must be prohibited
resolutely.
1. Overcapacity of China’s steel sector
16
Fifteen
tasks
Sixty
plans Six
evolvements
One
objective
Substantial influence on the general layout of future development of the steel sector
2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector
http://www.mpi1972.com
More than
three
hundred
items
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
9
17
http://www.mpi1972.com
Economic reform is the key point of comprehensively
deepening reforms
The government should withdraw from micromanagement. To establish the entrance
and exit mechanism suitable with the market economy and in compliance with the
market regulation. The resources allocation should be determined by market price and
competition. Gradually erase regional protection such as subsidies, favorable policies
etc.
To establish a proper relationship between the government and the market; to secure
the decisive role of market in resources allocation, and to perform the government
duties comprehensively and correctly
Inadequate and irregular market
mechanism
Unfair competition system
Improper function of the entrance
system
Imperfect of exit mechanism
Pricing mechanism cannot work
properly.
In charge of investment and
implement project approval
Land allocation
Iron ore mine and coal allocation
Lead merging and regrouping
Regional protection including
subsidies, procurement priority etc
Improper function of the
market
More involvement of the
government
2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector
(1) One relationship and two roles
Abstraction
Future
development
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
18
http://www.mpi1972.com
Stick to and perfect the basic economic system
State-owned capital stock ownership in state-owned steel enterprises declined
gradually. Operation efficiency of state-owned steel enterprises will be improved.
Separate the political and business role of enterprises’ management. Government
should withdraw from the micromanagement of enterprises’ operation.
Actively develop the diversified ownership economy: strength the state-owned
assets supervision with capital management serving as its main body
Promote the state-owned enterprises to perfect modern enterprise system
It is difficult for state-owned
enterprises to adapt to varied
requirements raised by the market due
to inflexible operation system.
Low efficiency because duties, rights
and interests cannot match each other
properly, final decision only can be
made slowly, as well as no action will
be taken against investment failure.
Inflexible employment system in the
state-owned enterprises due to the
status and duty level of staff are
difficult to be changed.
Private ownership and foreign
companies will participated in the
regrouping and reform of state-owned
steel enterprises
Perfect the management and staff
stock ownership
Further perfect the corporation
management, reasonable increase the
proportion of market-oriented
recruitment, and establish a
professional management system.
Problems Measures to be implemented
2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
(2) Mixed-ownership, reform of state-owned enterprises
Abstraction
Future
development
05/06/2014
10
19
http://www.mpi1972.com
Establish new open economic system
International development level and competitive power of Chinese steel companies will be
improved. The word class multinational corporation emerge.
Entrance of foreign companies is good for promoting optimization and perfection of
industrial management and market supervision.
Accelerated foster the powerful units capable of participating in international economic
cooperation and competition
Widen investment access: further liberalization will be achieved in general
manufacturing
Carry out reform of overseas investment approval, perfect consulate protection
mechanism, and provide varied service including rights and interests protection,
investment promotion, risk alarm etc.
Huge risk to be born by companies go
abroad; lack of protection of rights and
interests; investment management
procedure to be further simplified to
improve efficiency
As per the industrial policies, foreign
investors are not permitted to hold the
stock of domestic steel companies,
which limited the introduction of
advanced technologies and
management ideas.
Provide advantages for steel
companies to go abroad such as more
support and protection measures
Liberalized the limitation of foreign
investment holding conditionally and
gradually
Set up and perfect foreign investment
approval system
Problems Measures to be implemented
2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector
(3) Establish new open economic system
Abstraction
Future
development
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
20
http://www.mpi1972.com
Accelerated construction of ecological civilization system
Steel companies should pay more cost on environmental issues. Some unqualified
companies and facilities will be eliminated by force i.e. the environmental issues will be
deemed as the precondition of survival and development of steel companies.
Prosperous development of environmental facilities, technologies, waste discharge rights
trading, energy saving volume trading, carbon exchange etc
Improve the property rights system for natural resources and the administration of
their use
Draw a “red line” for ecological protection
Establish a system of paid use for natural resources and ecological compensation
Large energy consumption, huge
amount of emission, big energy
consumption and emission of unit
added value, many environmental
cases remained, and only small cost to
be paid on law breaking.
Disorder and low-efficiency
exploitation of resources
The steel industry layout is not in
compliance with resource
environmental bear capacity.
More powerful implementation of
environmental protection law; perfect
waste discharge permission and total
volume control system.
More stricter discharge standards will be
implemented.
Strengthen the supervision of iron ore
exploitation, and draw up balance sheet
and auxiliary management for iron ore
resources.
Problems Measures to be implemented
2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector
(4) Ecological civilization and environmental protection
Abstraction
Future
development
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
11
21
http://www.mpi1972.com
Deepening reform of science and technology system
More reasonable allocation of technical resources of the steel sector; decrease of repetitive
waste; R & D and utilization rate of key and common-used technologies increased by large
scale; self-innovation ability of steel companies improved evidently; a batch of integrated
technological facilities appeared to lead the development of world metallurgy.
Integrate planning and resources of science and technology system; perfect the
support mechanism of the government to basic, strategical, leading and common
research
Emphasize the companies as the main body of technical innovation; encourage the
leading role of large-scale enterprises in innovation; perfect the system of paid use for
natural resources and ecological compensation.
Perfect the market-oriented mechanism for technical innovation
Weak self-innovation ability
Technical improvement mainly depends
on re-innovation on the basis of
introduced technologies. It is still
needed to improve the integration ability
although the same has already
improved.
Due to lack of centralization platform
and general plan, the research power is
separated, which causes repetitive
waste.
Break the administrative limitation among
administration department, technology
department, industrial department, industrial
association and steel companies to improve
top-level innovative engineering by
integrated power of policy maker, resources
distributor and innovative main body.
Establish a industrial centralization platform
of key and common-used technologies to
create a new system with cooperation, risk-
sharing and mutual benefit.
Problems Measures to be implemented
2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector
(5) Technological innovation
Abstraction
Future
development
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
22
http://www.mpi1972.com
Deepening reform of fiscal and taxation system, perfect
financial market system
Set up a fair and well-organized market gradually; prohibit the circumstance of bad
money drives out good; more freedom of financing; market-oriented and high
efficiency financing mode adopted.
Legislative management of favorable taxation policy especially for regional favorable
policy in compliance with unified taxation, balanced duty and fair competition.
Advance value-added tax reform, energy and pollution-intensive products will be
subject to a tax, accelerate the reform of resources tax, change environmental-
protection fee into an environmental tax.
Improve multi-level capital market system, advance reform of stock issue registration.
Some steel companies enjoy
subsidies of business tax farming
Financing with difficulties and high
expenditure
Erase and regulate unreasonable
favorable taxation policies
Change business tax into value-added
tax in the construction sector, stop the
malignant competition of construction
steel sale such as no invoice issue.
Abolish stock issue approval, and
establish a smooth and high-efficiency
direct financing channel for steel
companies.
Problems Measures to be implemented
2. Impact of comprehensively deepening reforms to the steel sector
Abstraction
Future
development
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
12
Ⅲ Chinese Steel Demand Already at Peak or Not
24
1. New change of macro economy
http://www.mpi1972.com
A new change of macro economy
□ The historical change of Chinese industrial structure
was viewed in 2013 i.e. added value of the tertiary
industry accounted for 46.1% of GDP exceeding that of
the secondary industry for the first time. This
circumstance represented to some extent that Chinese
economy has already stepped into the critical period for
industrial structure transformation.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
13
25
http://www.mpi1972.com
The other new change of macro economy
1. New change of macro economy
In 2013, the fixed assets investment, excluding the investment for farming household was
amounted to 43.6528 trillion yuan, increased by 19.6% normally comparing with that of 2012,
while the actual growth was 19.2% after deducting the price factors. It was the first time for the
fixed assets investment growth below 20% since 2003. In 2014 (Jan-Apr), the growth rate
declined further to 17.3%.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
26
2. Transition period of China’s steel sector
http://www.mpi1972.com
Crude steel consumption per capita (kg/person)
□ China has stepped into mid-late period of
industrialization.
□ Crude steel consumption per capita ranks one of the
world’s highest level
□ Growth rate of consumption decreased evidently,
investment in the steel sector declined
□ D e v e l o p i n g Mode transformation and structural
adjustment; strength of steel consumption per unit
investment decreased
□Limited development space due to energy resources and
environmental issues
□ steel upgrading, and consumption intensity will
decrease China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
14
27
2. Transition period of China’s steel sector
http://www.mpi1972.com
Summary: China’s steel sector has already stepped into a transition period to the new era,
as the accelerated expansion has terminated. The whole industry has entered, and will be
maintained at the peak top over a long period of time.
Phase 1: Fluctuating
development in the
initial stage
Phase 2 (6.6% increase on
average/year):
Stable development in the
beginning stage
Phase 3(16.6% increase
on average/year): Leap-forward
development in the
accelerating stage
Phase 4: Innovative development in the
transition stage (transition period from
Phase 3 to Phase 4)
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
28
2. Transition period of China’s steel sector
http://www.mpi1972.com
Refer to the USA, Germany etc, at
peak value, demand in these countries
declined significantly affecting by
outside crisis.
Refer to China: will be a peak range
instead of a peak point
▪Chinese government is more powerful
to control and regulate economic
development
▪ Impact of international market is
limited to Chinese steel products, due
to most of steel products are consumed
by domestic market.
▪Due to wide area, large population,
unbalanced development between
urban and rural and among regions,
developed, medium-developed and
undeveloped regions can be deemed
as a continuous driving power for the
consumption increase.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
15
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute http://www.mpi1972.com
Future economic development
2. Transition period of China’s steel sector
GDP
growth
New
urbanization New industrialization
and new strategical
industries
As per the guideline of 12th Five-year Plan, GDP grows at a
rate of 7% annually in the duration from 2011 to 2015.
Up to 2020, urbanization
rate of residential
population should be 60%.
This rate increases by an
average of 0.9% annually
from 2014 to 2020.
The comprehensive
service facilities will be
equipped for 100% of urban
communities.
The coverage of affordabl
housing will increase from
12.5% in 2012 to 23% in
2020.
According to the report approved by the
18th National Congress of CPC, GDP and
incomes of both rural and urban residents
will be doubled up to 2020 comparing with
that in 2010. From 2014 to 2020, GDP will
keep growing at a rate of 6.7% annually.
Meaning of new industrialization: high-tech, resources saving economy, environmental friendly, favorable
social and economic benefit, fully play of human resources advantage, reasonable and harmonious industrial
structure, drive power of industrial transformation and upgrading.
New strategical industries will be the support and pilot sector of national economy. As per the guideline of
12th Five-year Plan, the added value of new strategical industries will account for approximate 8% of GDP.
29
Ⅳ Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in
China in the Coming Years
05/06/2014
16
31
1. Scrap resources in China and development of EAF steel
http://www.mpi1972.com
In 2013, the scrap supply in China was 92.465 million tons, among of which 39.8 million tones of self -produced scrap,
accounting for 43% of total supply, 48.2 million tones of general scrap, accounting for 52.1%of total and 4.465 million
tons of import scrap, accounting for 4.8% of total supply. The domestic scrap market in 2013 maintained the situation
of limited supply and inadequate demand with representations as follow:
Due to more stricter cost control, typical medium/large scale enterprises didn’t show a strong demand of scrap.
The national taxation favorable policies has not been recovered, which was a severe setback to the activity of
scrap manufacturers
The lawful scrap market was impacted by illegal scrap products.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
单位
:万
吨
进口废钢 社会废钢 自产废钢
Import scrap General scrap Self-produced scrap
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
32
1. Scrap resources in China and development of EAF steel
http://www.mpi1972.com
Scrap consumption increased along with the
accelerated growth of crude steel output. The
scrap consumption per ton steel production in
China represents obviously that the scrap
supply is still limited, and the competitive power
of the cost of scrap is weaker than that of the
pig iron.
Since 2001, the comprehensive scrap
consumption per ton steel production in China
decreased slowly year by year, from 226kg/t in
2001 to 111kg/t in 2013, with average annual
drop of 5.8%. In recent years, the scrap
consumption per ton steel production shows a
fluctuated decrease. Take the EAF steel
production, with higher scrap consumption as
an example, the scrap consumption per ton
steel production was 821kg in 2001, and this
volume decreased to 543kg/t in 2013, with the
average annual drop of 3.4%.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
废钢
消费
量:
万吨
粗钢
产量
:万
吨
钢产量 废钢消费量
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
废钢综合单耗和电炉废钢单耗:kg/t
粗钢
产量
:万
吨
粗钢产量 废钢综合单耗 电炉废钢单耗
Steel output Scrap
consumption
Scra
p
co
nsu
mp
tion
:10
4t
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
17
33
1. Scrap resources in China and development of EAF steel
http://www.mpi1972.com
In 2013, EAF steel output in China was nearly 70 million tones (estimated value), accounting for about 9% of total
crude steel output, which followed the decreasing EAF steel percentage in recent years, declined 12.4 percentage
points in comparison with 21.4% in1990, declined 14.2 percentage points in comparison with 23.2% in 1993, which
was the historical high of EAF steel output.
EAF steel output in East China was 24.4 million tones, accounting for 37.7% of total output. And the same in Central
South China was 15.54 million tones, accounting for 24%. The EAF steel output of both East China and Central South
China were accounted for 61.7% of total output. The EAF steel output top 5 were Jiangsu Province, Hubei Province,
Inner Mongolia, Fujian Province and Liaoning Province, the total output of which was accounted for 52.7% of total
output.
华北
1414 21.8%
华东
2440 37.7%
中南
1554 24.0%
东北
398 6.1%
西南
392 6.1%
西北
279 4.3%
EAF steel output (104 t)
Percentage of EAF steel (%)
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
34
2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years
http://www.mpi1972.com
Scrap recovery and manufacturing
system : Perfection of scrap recovery system,
degree of industrialization, cooperation
mode with steel plants, etc
Scrap resources volume Output and productivity of
general scrap
Development of EAF
steel: EAF steel output,
percentage, development
speed etc
Development of crude steel output Peak value, duration time, degree of output
decrease etc
Will There be a
Big Scrap
Surplus in
China in the
Coming Years
A
D B
C
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
18
35
2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years
http://www.mpi1972.com
In recent years, the EAF steel output maintains
about 29% all over the world. Except for Chinese
Mainland, EAF steel output in other countries is
approximate 47%. The percentage of EAF steel
in most main steel producing countries is higher
than that in China. The percentage of EAF steel
in the USA, rising from 1950s, has already
reached 60%, while same in Europe and Japan
was 40% and 23% respectively already.
Among steel producing countries with more than
40 million tones crude steel annual output, only
the USA and India enjoy the EAF steel output
more than 60%, while 20%-40% in any other
countries except for China. Normally increase of
percentage of EAF steel will be restricted
between 20% -40% and then improved
fluctuated within this scope. Development of
EAF steel in Japan shows this typical
characteristic. The percentage of EAF steel in
Japan has exceeded 20% in 1950s over a short
period of time, and then decreased soon. Since
the value back to more than 20% in 1970s, the
percentage of EAF steel in Japan maintained
within 20%-40% over 40 years up to now.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
36
2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years
http://www.mpi1972.com
It is estimated that the development and EAF steel in China will show following characteristics
The percentage of EAF steel in China will break the restriction range of 20% ~ 40%, developed
with higher speed than Europe, America and Japan.
America, Europe and Japan spend 25-30 years to improve the percentage of EAF steel from 10%
up to 30%. Due to large scale and accelerated expansion of crude steel output in China, there will be
a explosion period of scrap recovery in the future. Moreover it is very likely to witness the overlapping
of explosive expansion of scrap resources and decrease of crude steel output. So the degree of
adequacy of scrap in China will grow rapidly.
The exterior conditions such as environmental issues, energy resources, land etc will be developed
in favorable of improvement of EAF steel production.
Developed technological support, industrial base is available for development of EAF steel
Three stages of development of EAF steel in China
Fluctuating development in the initial stage: percentage of EAF steel in China will increase up to
20%
Accelerated growth: percentage of EAF steel in China will increase from 20% up to 40%-50%
Balance stage: percentage of EAF steel in China will increase continuously to reach a new balance
level
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
19
37
2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years
http://www.mpi1972.com
No Condition Development of EAF steel
Fast speed Slow speed Middle
1 Steel output
●Low peak value
●Reach the peak value early
●Short duration of peak top
●High peak value
●Reach the peak value later
●Long duration of peak top
Circumstances in
between
development at
fast speed and
slow speed.
2 Scrap resources ●Volume of general scrap increased rapidly
●Perfection of scrap recovery system
●Volume of general scrap increased slowly
● Undeveloped scrap recovery system
3 Power supply
●Sufficient power supply
● Supplied at lower price
●Insufficient power supply
● Supplied at higher price
4 Environmental
energy
● Environmental cost born by enterprises
● Strict implementation of energy restriction
●Environmental cost born by the society
●Loose implementation of energy restriction
Percentage of EAF steel(%)
Middle speed
Slow speed
Fast speed
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
38
2. Will There be a Big Scrap Surplus in China in the Coming Years
http://www.mpi1972.com
Summary: it is difficult to see a big
scrap surplus in China over a long
period of time.
The crude steel output in
China will be kept in the
peak top over a long
period of time. There will
be a strong demand of
scrap.
The fast development of
steel production and
consumption in China
appeared since 2000,
mainly with construction
steel. And the peak of
scrap output can be
witnessed in 20 even 30
years later.
From long-term view,
percentage of EAF
steel in China will
increase gradually to
change the structure of
steel producing process
and to improve the
scrap consumption
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
20
Ⅴ MPI-your reliable partner
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
MPI-your reliable partner
40
Established under the approval of the State Council (1972)
One of the first engineering consulting institutes with First-grade qualifications
MPI specially engaged in development plan and strategies
research of metallurgical industry.
The employees who have obtained doctor’s and master’s
degrees account for 90% of the staff, those who have been
awarded high-level technical titles account for 70% of the
staff, and those who are state registered consulting
engineers, senior technicians or who enjoy special
government subsidy account for 50% of the staff.
Furthermore, MPI, with its expertise covering all the fields and
the whole process of steel and nonferrous industry,
possesses a unique advantage to provide an all round
comprehensive consulting service from mining and ore
dressing to smelting and processing.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
21
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
41
MPI-your reliable partner
Mission
MPI Culture
Service Tenet
academic foresight, reality, innovation, moral
and competency-orientation, solidarity and
dedication
to be objective and impartial, excellent and
efficient, scientific and accurate, honest and
rigorous
Development Goals: to be metallurgical industry authority
domestically and influential planning and consulting institution
internationally
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
MPI-your reliable partner
42
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
22
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
Some of our customers
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
Some of our customers
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
23
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
Business
Research and analysis of industrial policy
Mineral resource exploitation and green mine planning
Technical service for sintering fume desulphurization
Research on metallurgical industry layout planning
Industry and industrial park planning
Energy resources diagnosis and energy saving
Logistics and logistics park planning
Preparation of project proposal, application report and
feasibility
Recycling economy planning
Industrial and enterprises development planning
Assets evaluation and technological estimation
Market survey, analysis and prediction
Energy saving and emission reduction and cleaning
production planning
Social security evaluation
Industrial chain extension planning
Preparation of energy saving evaluation report
Host and cooperator of industrial conferences
Consultation for new technology promotion and
application
Promotion of human resources management
Overall development strategy
Enterprises merging planning
Analysis of capitalized cost
Marketing management
Operation management
Procurement management
Payment and performance management
Lean assessment
MPI-your reliable partner
Business fields
Technical Consultation: overall planning, mineral resources, steel market, energy saving & environmental protection,
general layout, diversified operation, technological economy, management consultation
Forum and information service : China Steel Report and six high-end forums
Technology promotion: de-S of sintering fume, energy resources management (power generation by surplus heat or energy,
energy saving for water pumps, coal prewetting etc), technology agent
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
MPI-your reliable partner
Management consultation
Provide systematic, professional and practicable solutions for metallurgical
enterprises by virtue of advantages both in technologies and management
Strategical consultation
• Overall strategy • Overall plan for the steel business • Functional strategy
• Diversified operation strategy • Strategical plan for specific business unit
• BSC management
Organization management • Control system engineering • Organization structure design • Key flow design • Obligation structure design • System building
Human resources
• Human resources planning • Employment system design • Ability module
design • Position management design • Payment and performance management
• High-level encouragement proposal
Marketing management • Marketing strategy design • Product positioning • Customers relationship
management •Marketing channel management • Marketing team management
• Market investigation and detailed survey
Operation management • Operation mode design • Product development • On-site management
• Supply chain management • Lean production system design
Merging and regrouping • Merging strategy design • Regrouping plan design • Merging plan design
• Corporate governance structure design • Investment and financing platform design
• Analysis and assessment of investment oppurtunities
Financing management • Budget management design • Cost reduction system design • Risk management
design • Interior control system design • Financing management mode design
• Financing analysis system design China Metallurgical Industry Planning and
Research Institute
05/06/2014
24
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
•MPI数据库
•MPI项目案例库
•MPI合作数据库
•互联网数据
•统计局数据
•国际先进管理理念
•国际先进钢铁企业管理经验
•相近企业案例
•行业专家
•各级政府主管
•相关企业主管
•高校管理专家
•其他外部信息
MPI-your reliable partner
Tools
Information
collection
Analysis and
conclusion
Report
submission
/execution
Progress
Task of project team
• MPI database
• MPI project case
• MPI cooperated database
• Network data
• Data from statistic bureau
• International developed
management idea
• International developed
management idea for steel
enterprises
• Similar cases
• Industrial experts
• Management of government at all
levels
• Management of enterprises
• Management expert from
universities
• Other information Provide latest,
comprehensive and reliable
industrial information and
policies interpretation Take lessons from
scientific, developed and
practicable management
ideas and experiences
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
冶金工业规划研究院
http://www.mpi1972.com
MPI-your reliable partner
China Steel Series Report
China Steel Market Analysis and Forecast Report (Annual & Quarterly Report)
Market Analysis Report of Main Plate, Long and Pipe Products
Market Analysis Report of Iron Ore, Coke, Non-ferrous and Ferroalloy
Information Service
Industrial Monthly Report
Industry Daily
Industrial Observation
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute
05/06/2014
25
Thank you for your attention
Address: http://www.mpi1972.com
E-mail: [email protected]