continental 2012 - session 06 - discontinuities, peripheral vision & uncertainty
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
THE FUTURE IS EMBEDED IN THE PRESENTJohn Naisbitt, Futurist
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 2: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
DISCONTINUITYA pattern of trends that has the potential todramatically change competitive rules
or industry structures, opening upsubstantial new opportunities.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 3: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
CONNECT THE DOT´S
People are working longer hoursThe number of single parent families increasingPeople are getting married later in lifePeople are spending more time online
WHERE IS THE INTERSECTION BETWEEN THESE TRENDS?
WHAT IS THE BIGGER STORY THAT EMERGES WHEN YOU PUT THESE TRENDS TOGETHER?
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 4: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
INCREASING SOCIAL ISOLATION
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 5: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
HOW COULD/WILL THIS AFFECT YOUR INDUSTRY?
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 6: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
TODAYIMAGINING THE FUTURE
...IS NOT EASY
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 7: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
THINK BIGThursday, May 31, 12
![Page 8: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
LET´s THINK ABOUT THE TRENDS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 9: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Bill Ford · Global GridlockThursday, May 31, 12
![Page 10: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Forget about grand corporate visions of the future.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 11: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Focus on identifying changes in the external environmentthat competitors have under-estimated orignored.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 12: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Then try to understand how the momentum of these changes can be influenced or amplified to shape the future.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 13: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
EVERYONE HAS ACCESS TO THE SAME INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT IS CHANGING THE WORLD.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 14: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
HOW CAN YOU CONSTRUCT PROPIETARY INSIGHTS OUT OF
PUBLICLY AVAILABLE DATA?
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 15: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT?
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 16: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT?
What is the bleeding edge?
Where could we go to get some firsthand experience of ...
technological change, lifestyle changes,
socio-demographic changes, etc.?
Where could we go to get inspiring bursts of insight that trigger innovative new ideas?
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 17: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Jan Chipchase · Understanding ConsumersThursday, May 31, 12
![Page 18: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 19: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 20: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 21: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Chris Anderson · Technology ForecastingThursday, May 31, 12
![Page 22: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 23: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
EXAMINE THE PASTWhat have been our past blind spots?
Is there an instructive analogy from another industry?Who in your industry has a good track record in
picking up week signals?
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 24: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
EXAMINE THE PRESENTWhat important signals are you rationalizing away?
(detect · fast forward with scenario planning)What are your mavericks and outliers trying to tell you?What are peripheral customers and competitors really
thinking? (existing · potential · non-consumers)aasdf
TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 25: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
ENVISION THE FUTUREWhat future surprises could really hurt (or help) us?What emerging technologies could change the game?
Is there an unthinkable scenario?
TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 26: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
LOOK FOR INTERSECTIONS BETWEEN TRENDS.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 27: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Flying CarsThursday, May 31, 12
![Page 28: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 29: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 30: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 31: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 32: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 33: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 34: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
Thursday, May 31, 12
![Page 35: Continental 2012 - Session 06 - Discontinuities, Peripheral Vision & Uncertainty](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060109/5557b553d8b42a696c8b4ec3/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
Thursday, May 31, 12