continuous global environmental scanning to inform strategy

American Chemical Society

Continuous Global Environmental Scanning to

Inform Strategy

Association for Strategic Planning Conference

Workshop

Robert H. Rich, Ph.D., CAE

Director, Strategy Development


May, 2015

Session Objectives

1. Understand and be able to apply the Three

Horizons environmental scanning model in

your organization(s)

2. Better understand your stakeholders,

members, or customers and the forces which

are likely to affect their lives

3. Be able to build a manageable ongoing

strategic research capacity focused on key

trends, possibilities, and uncertainties

American Chemical Society 2

What is Environmental Scanning?

• A thorough understanding,

• Of the forces shaping,

• The organization’s external environment,

• Which is widely shared,

• Among leaders and managers,

• That enables better decision-making,

• To set more powerful goals,

• Which makes the goals more achievable,

• Thereby, advancing the Mission and Vision.


Some Approaches to Environmental Scanning

• Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats

(SWOT or TOWS) analysis

• Goal-focused scanning

• Brainstorming of trends

• Scenario Planning

• Our innovative approach:

The Three Horizons Model



1st Horizon

Near-Term

Trends and

Issues

What is our

current strategic

fit with these

developments?

Consider first

2nd Horizon

Possible Key

Turning Points in a

Period of

Transition and

Uncertainty

How should we

prepare for these

turning points?

Consider third

3rd Horizon

Alternative

Scenarios of the

Future

What do we

aspire, fear, and

expect? How to

shape the future

we want?

Consider second

1-3 Years 3-5 years 6-10+ years

Descriptive

Strategic

The ACS Three Horizons Environmental Scanning Model

ACS Ongoing Environmental Scan


Gather Trends

Prioritize Impacts

Consider Scenarios

Identify Uncertainties

Discuss Implications

Trends List

1st Horizon

3rd Horizon

2nd Horizon

Feedback

Winter

SummerSpring

Fall

Environmental Scanning –Some Areas of Interest


Social Trends

• Society,

Demographics

& Culture

• Associations &

Nonprofits

• Education &

Professional

Development

• Knowledge &

World Views

Technology Trends

• Information

Technology

• Information,

Media &

Learning

• Technological

Capabilities &

Tools

Economic Trends

• Economy

• Ecology &

Environment

• Chemistry

Enterprise

• Chemistry

Workforce

Political Trends

• Politics,

Regulations &

Government

• Chemistry

Research &

Education

Funding

What do we mean by a “top trend?”

Which are the most significant trends likely to affect

chemistry, chemists, and the ACS during the next ten

years?

• Emphasis on emerging and eye-opening

• Impact on ACS as a whole

• By necessity, these trends are seen today or

extrapolated from today’s realities

• Unchanging realities are not considered top trends


1st Horizon

Environment Scan 2015 –Key Trends

Social

• Scientific enterprise globalization

• K-12 education trends

• Two-year college trends

• Politicization of science education

• Challenges in information/

knowledge/understanding

• Demographic shifts

• Changing career pathways

• Evolving meeting models

Economic

• Strengthening U.S. Dollar

• Lower oil prices

• Environmental concerns and

responses

• Access to raw materials

• Middle class growth in BRICKS

countries

• Increased use of adjunct and non-

tenure track faculty


Technology

• Emerging genomics applications

• 3-D printing

• Social, mobile, cloud

• Cyber-security threats

• Online and other education tools

• Big data

Political

• Global terrorism

• Public opposition to scientific

knowledge

• Changing academic funding levels

1st Horizon

Let’s Try It!


Let’s Do the First Horizon!

1. Pick an organization around which to scan –

5 minutes

2. Write down potential trends (social, technology,

economic, political) affecting your organization –

5 minutes

3. Discuss and add to your list as a group –

5 minutes

4. Select ten (or so) top trends –

5 minutes


Third Horizon:1. Convert Trends to Drivers

Example Trends

• Resource wars escalating: from a world of abundance to

shortage

• Online technologies enhance and replace meetings and

conferences

Trends as Drivers

• Resource wars over shortages: How frequent and severe?

• Meetings and conferences: How much are they enhanced

and replaced by online technologies?


Third Horizon:2. Reviewing and Clustering Drivers

13American Chemical Society

Low Uncertainty

Low Impact

Low Uncertainty

High Impact

High Uncertainty

Low Impact

High Uncertainty

High Impact

Uncertainty

(Lack of

Coherence in

Outcomes)

Impact on chemists, chemistry, ACS

Third Horizon: 3. Differentiating Drivers

Differentiating Drivers Should Be:

• Highest Impact

• Highest Uncertainty

• Distinct from Each Other

* * Differentiating Drivers Distinguish and Define the Scenarios * *

Here’s an Example:

1. What will the temperature be one week from today, during the time

when our picnic is to be planned?

and

2. How much precipitation will we have one week from today, during

the time when our picnic is to be planned?


Third Horizon:4. Identify Scenarios

Amount of Precipitation

Temperature

Lots

Low

None

High

Rain

Cold and

Clear

Snow

Sunny Day


Scenario Example – It’s Pouring!(High Temperature, High Precipitation)

Key elements:

• Umbrella sales have increased

• Many outdoor activities are

cancelled

• Our picnic may have to be moved

indoors

• etc., etc.,


Defining the Scenario Narratives

Imagine it is 2025 – Consider:1. What are the key features of the landscape?

2. Who are the key actors?

3. Who are the winners and losers?

4. What outcomes have been achieved?

5. Who are the key actors/stakeholders?

6. What do key industry value chains look like?

7. Who are the winners and losers?

8. What are the new opportunities/challenges that are being faced?

By whom?

9. What trigger events put this scenario on the path to 2025?

10. What are the implications for ACS, chemists, and chemistry?



3rd Horizon

Let’s Try It!


Let’s Do the Third Horizon!

1. Convert a few of your trends to drivers –

5 minutes

2. Select two different differentiating drivers –

5 minutes

3. Identify a couple of words that describe scenarios in

each of the four quadrants –

5 minutes



Trends Rising to the

Challenge (Low

Natural Resources,

High Financial

Resources)

Pleasantville:

Everything is

Awesome (High

Natural Resources.

High Financial

Resources)

Passport Update

(Low Natural

Resources, Low

Financial

Resources)

Underachievers

(High Natural

Resources, Low

Financial

Resources)

2nd Horizon Differentiators

1. Personalized

delivery of

information

and

resources

Niche information

resources develop

to support small

communities

working to resolve

key societal

challenges.

Government funds

the development of

focused information

tools.

Surplus funds

enable U.S.

scientific

information

providers to invest

in sophisticated

technologies to

personalize

information

delivery.

As U.S. chemists

struggle to find

employment,

customized career

dashboards are

offered to

members.

Global business

focus leads to

expanded role for

personalization in

meeting

information needs

in a culturally

sensitive and

locally applicable

way.

How much do audiences for

scientific information (e.g.,

researchers, librarians,

students) demand

personalized information?

What are the opportunities to

add value to information and

resources by tailoring them to

an individual’s needs?

How effective are the

available approaches and

tools in efficiently and

inexpensively creating mass-

personalized content?

Second Horizon:1. Map Each Trend to Scenarios

Second Horizon2. Identify Key Uncertainties

1. How much do audiences for scientific information (e.g., researchers,

librarians, students) demand personalized information?

2. What are the opportunities to add value to information and resources by

tailoring them to an individual’s needs?

3. How effective are the available approaches and tools in efficiently and

inexpensively creating mass-personalized content?

4. Can organizations figure out how to use a person’s behavior and

advanced analysis to craft more effective marketing campaigns and

stronger engagement?

5. How is technology evolving to support trusted relationships that feel

personalized between organizations and their stakeholders?

6. How are associations personalizing their offerings to effectively support

their goals and objectives?


A Few Other Examples of 2nd

Horizon Generative Questions

• Where are the centers-of-gravity of the scientific world

developing?

• Will research investment remain a bipartisan priority, or

become a partisan one or a low priority?

• Can we use a person’s behavior and advanced

analysis to craft more effective marketing campaigns

and stronger engagement?

• What might our members want that we cannot deliver

easily today but we could soon deliver effectively?


Let’s Try It!


Let’s Do the Second Horizon!

1. Consider how one of your trends would be reflected in

each of the four scenarios –

5 minutes

2. Develop uncertainty questions implied by this question

across the scenarios –

5 minutes


A Three-Prong Approach to Discussion and Vetting


Committees

• Discuss relevant

trends & issues

• Analyze impact on

programs and

priorities

Board and Planning

Committee

• Identify ACS strategic

issues

• Adjust strategic plan

with environmental

scan learning

Staff

• Scan for future

impact on the

organization

• Place small bets to

respond

Discussions with Groups –Guiding Principles

• Consider the group’s focus areas or initiatives

• Identify which trends would have most impact

on these priorities

• After brief introduction to the approach, focus

on top trend(s) (and related uncertainties) of

interest to the group

• Discuss with an emphasis on identifying key

strategic questions


Some Strategic Questions

1. How can ACS best leverage data about our members

and customers and advanced analytics to maximize

the awareness, value of, and participation in our

offerings?

2. How can ACS increase the impact of our advocacy?

3. How can ACS become more adaptable in this era of

rapid external change?

4. How should ACS address anti-chemistry and anti-

science groups?


What Can Our Group Do?

• Discuss the ACS Environment Scan’s

potential impact on our group

• Develop and Execute strategic plans

driven by current E-Scan information

• Provide Updates for ACS Environment

Scan (Email [email protected])

Trends that may impact ACS

Suggested Goals and objectives for ACS

Products/Services for ACS to consider offering


mailto:[email protected]

Results of Three Horizons Environmental Scan at ACS

Gather Information

Prioritize Impacts

Discuss with Leaders

Consider Strategy

Discuss with Members

• 22 Updated Trends

• 4 Scenarios

• Uncertainties / Turning Points

• Top Trends and Supporting Data

• 25+ Committees

• 10+ Staff Groups

• 25% of Strategic Objectives

• Many Divisional Objectives

• Board Strategic Issues

• Webinars

• Conference Presentations

• Interactive Discussion

• Online

30


Continuous Global Environmental Scanning to

Inform Strategy

Association for Strategic Planning Conference

Workshop

Robert H. Rich, Ph.D., CAE

Director, Strategy Development


May, 2015

continuous global environmental scanning to inform strategy

Documents