Continuous Stakeholder Feedback: Methodologies for Improving Adoption

and User-friendliness of Climate Variability Forecasts

Norman E. BreuerVictor E. Cabrera

Peter E. HildebrandMarch 2004

The Southeast Climate Consortium

A multidisciplinary, multi-institutional initiative among the UF, FSU, UM, AU, UG, and UAH for research, extension, education, and training related to climate-based management of agriculture and natural resources. 

Working at the Interface

Forest Reserve

Small-scaleFarmers

PlantationsClimate Water

Agriculture

People

The Southeast Climate Consortium

Immediate Objective

Development of a climate-based Decision Support System for farmers available via the Internet

The Southeast Climate Consortium

• Target Audience:

The Cooperative Extension Service and through them, to all stakeholders in AL, FL & GA

• Funding: NOAA - Office of Global Programs and the Risk Management Agency of the U. S.D.A.

The SECC Decision Support System

Problem with DSSs*:• non adoption

• short-term use

Due to:• deterministic nature

• exaggerated expectations

• other

*McCown, et al. 2002 Agricultural Systems 74

The Southeast Climate Consortium

• Florida, Georgia, Alabama

• Agricultural Production1.Peanuts

2.Tomato

3. Livestock

4. Potato

• Water 1.Quality

2.Quantity

UsersSpecific and

Diverseneeds

End products

Whole FarmModels

TestingPrototypeproducts

ParticipatoryRural Appraisals

Participatory Methodology

Calibration and Validation

Crop models

Climate

models

Participatory Methodology

Adapted fromBastidas 2001

Feedback Loops

Time

Ado

ptio

n

With constant interaction among research, extension andfarmer, diffusion can “take off”sooner and continue longer

Rogers 1995 modified by J. Ashby, pers. Comm. 2003

Participatory Rural Appraisal: Sondeo

• Multidisciplinary team

• Rapid appraisal

• Open ended interviews

• Preliminary insight

Participatory Modeling

• Understanding the farm system

• Preliminary modeling – LP, Dynamic, etc.

• Calibration with stakeholders

• Final modeling

• Validation with independent stakeholders

Working with Farmers

Beef Cattle in North Central Florida

• 38 Ranchers preliminary phase

• 12 Ranchers validation phase

• Hypothetical 400-acre ranch

• Management Options– Stocking rate– Ryegrass planting– Hay purchase

• Economic Output

Beef Cattle in North Central Florida

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

YEARS

WINTER

WINTER AVERAGEAverage number of cows in winter = 150

σ = 19.86

μ = 244.27

NIÑA

NIÑO

MO

DE

LE

D H

ER

D S

IZE

(H

EA

D)

Figure 4. Modeled herd size over 40 years of known climate effect.

Beef Cattle in North Central Florida

185,000

190,000

195,000

200,000

205,000

210,000

215,000

220,000

NIÑA NIÑA NIÑANEUTRAL

NIÑA NIÑO NEUTRALNIÑA

NIÑO NIÑA NEUTRALNEUTRAL

NEUTRALNIÑO

NIÑONEUTRAL

NIÑO NIÑO

FIRST AND SECOND YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST

GR

OS

S M

AT

GIN

+ H

ER

D V

AL

UE

(U

S$)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y

Figure 3. Two-year economic output values for nine scenarios tested and probability of occurrence.

Dairy Farms in North Florida

• 21 farmers preliminary phase• 6 focus groups• 3 farmers expected validation phase• Individual farms modeled: dynamic and LP• Novel inclusions

– Markov-Chain cow flow modeling– Environmental interaction (nitrate leaching)– Crop models

• Economic Output

Dairy Farms in North West FloridaPrototype

Dairy Farms in North West Florida

Dairy Farms in North West Florida

Dairy Farms in North West FloridaOptimization

Conclusions

• It is possible to develop models with stakeholder involvement

• With participation:- User friendliness

- trustworthiness - better performance with less need for initial input data set• Enhances probability of adoption and use of

climate-based tools and products• Will be added to tools section of SECC DSS