cooperating with neighbours - regional integration in southeast … · 2016-03-29 · presentation...

vendredi 7 mai 2010

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Cooperating with Neighbours - Regional

Integration in Southeast Asia

Seminar on Challenges in Cooperation and Communication

for Development in Southeast Asia

Hanoi, 26-27 April 2010

Kiichiro Fukasaku Development Centre

OECD Development Centre

Presentation

• What are the current dynamics of economic integration in Southeast Asia?

• What impact has the global economic crisis on it?

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The region’s economic landscape in 5 years’ time will not be the same as today:

The centripetal force taking ASEAN economies closer towards a more unified market; and

The centrifugal force getting them closer to the global market

The global financial and economic crisis has made regional economic integration even more important in Southeast Asia

Effective development co-operation and communication

Key Messages

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AFTA >>> AEC

East Asia FTA (ASEAN+3)

CEPEA

(ASEAN+6)

Trans-Pacific Strategic EPA

(TPP/ P4)

ASEAN-EU FTA

Regional Economic Landscape ASEAN with Important Partners

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From AFTA to ASEAN Economic Community

1992 ASEAN Free Trade

Area (AFTA)

1995 ASEAN Framework

Agreement on Services (AFAS)

1997 ASEAN Vision 2020

1998 ASEAN Investment Area (AIA)

2001 Initiative for ASEAN Integration

(IAI)

2003 Bali Concord II

2004 Vientiane

Action Plan (VAP)

2006 AEC brought to

2015

2007 APSC & ASCC brought

to 2015

2008 ASEAN Charter

2009 Roadmap for an ASEAN

Community (2009-2015)

2010 Viet Nam’s

ASEAN Presidency

2015

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ASEAN Economic Community

• A Single Market and Production Base

• A Highly Competitive Economic Region

• A Region of Equitable Economic Development

• A Region Fully Integrated into the Global Economy

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Turning the Region’s Diversity into Opportunities

0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0

Viet Nam

The Philippines

Thailand

Singapore

Myanmar

Malaysia

Lao PDR

Indonesia

Cambodia

Brunei Darussalam

0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000

Viet Nam

The Philippines

Thailand

Singapore

Myanmar

Malaysia

Lao PDR

Indonesia

Cambodia

Brunei Darussalam

GDP per capita in 2009 (e) (US $ PPP)

Population in 2009 (p) (Million)

Sources: ASEAN Secretariat; IMF; (p) Preliminary; (e) Estimates

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Net Aid Disbursement to ASEAN (Percentage of All Developing Countries)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ASEAN Total ASEAN-6 CLMV

Source: OECD 8

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FDI Inflows in ASEAN and China (USD Billion)

P : Preliminary estimates based on UNCTAD FDI Database and national statistics Source: UNCTAD; CEIC; OECD Development Centre

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

China ASEAN-10

p

9


Trade in ASEAN Priority Sectors (USD Billion, 2006-2008 Average)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250

EX (blue) IM (red) Source: UN Comtrade; OECD/DEV

6 ASEAN Economies* China

* IN, MY, PH, SG, TH (2006-8 av.) VN (2006-7 av.) 10

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Closer Integration in ASEAN and East Asia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1993 1998 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Progress in Tariffs Reduction (Average tariff rate under AFTA, %)

Source: ASEAN Secretariat; IMF/DOT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6

Share of Intra-regional Trade (Percentage of total trade)

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ASEAN Trade with Selected Partner Countries (2006-2008 average, % share of total)

26%

11%

11%4%

3%2%0%

12%

11%

20%

Intra-ASEAN

China

Japan

Korea

Australia

India

New Zealand

EU

USA

ROW

Source: ASEAN Secretariat 12

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Improved Market Access through FTAs

(No of agreements, as of January 2010)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Brunei

Darussalam

Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam

Proposed Under Negotiation Concluded

Source: ADB/ARIC database

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Note: Annual percentage change in world real GDP and world trade volume in goods and services Source: IMF

Note: Annual percentage change in real GDP Source: ADB

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The crisis hit Southeast Asia hard through trade links

-15,0

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

World output World trade volume

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Southeast Asia

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Growth rates differ across countries

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Brunei Darussalam Indonesia

Malaysia Philippines

Singapore Thailand

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Cambodia Lao PDR

Myanmar Vietnam

Source: ADB 15


Contributions to Real GDP Growth (Change relative to the previous year, %)

Source: CEIC 16

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Malaysia Thailand

Share of Major Trading Partners

Relative to Total Export

Source: CEIC

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ASEAN economies are well placed to emerge stronger from the global crisis, but development will likely be uneven across countries and sectors, unless necessary measures are taken:

Promote green growth;

Foster regional and sub-regional connectivity through infrastructure development;

Support the narrowing of the development gap within ASEAN;

Generate greater participation of the public in building the ASEAN Community

To Recap

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• The Development Centre’s Governing Board consists of 39 countries of which 16 countries are non-OECD Members, including three Southeast Asian countries:

– Thailand (joined in 2005), Vietnam (2008) and Indonesia (2009)

• Partnership with ASEAN Secretariat:

• Closer cooperation:

Making Best Use of DEV Regional Networks and Expertise for the SEA Region

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Thank you!

Contact: [email protected]

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Southeast Asian Economic Outlook: A Tool for Policy Dialogue

vendredi 7 mai 2010

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ANNEX

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MCM 2007

Informal Reflection Group on Southeast Asia Chair: EC Ambassador Coordinator: CCNM Participants: Delegations + OECD Directorates

OECD and Southeast Asia

1st OECD-Southeast Asia Regional Forum in 2007 (Jakarta) 2nd OECD-Southeast Asia Regional Forum in 2009 (Bangkok)

• CFE/ CTPA/ DAF/ ELS/ GOV/ STI • DEV (Regional Integration, SAEO)

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http://www.oecd.org/document/42/0,3343,en_21571361_37949547_37957738_1_1_1_1,00.html






http://www.oecd.org/site/0,3407,en_21571361_41771016_1_1_1_1_1,00.html






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Composite Leading Indicator Historical Diffusion Index China

Thailand Malaysia Indonesia

OECD Asian Business Cycle Indicators

Source: OECD 23


SAEO 2010

• Regional Integration Landscape

• Macroeconomic Synchronisation

• Medium-term Growth Scenarios

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Part I: Regional Economic Monitor

• Transport Infrastructure and Regional Integration

Part II:

Thematic

Focus

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ASEAN

ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System AEC Scorecards (with ERIA)

OECD

OECD Input-Output Database for Economic Analysis (STI) Integration of ASEAN Priority Sectors (DEV)

SAEO: Regional Integration Landscape

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ADB: Asia Regional Integration Centre UNESCAP: Trade and Investment Division Home Page

cooperating with neighbours - regional integration in southeast … · 2016-03-29 · presentation...

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