copyright © 2012, oracle and/or its affiliates. all rights...
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
战略财务在战略到执行中的作用Design Strategy to ExecutionKok Sau Ting
EPM Solutions Manager, EPM APAC@ 28th August 2012
The following is intended to outline our general
product direction. It is intended for information
purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any
contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any
material, code, or functionality, and should not be
relied upon in making purchasing decisions.
The development, release, and timing of any
features or functionality described for Oracle’s
products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.
Safe Harbor Statement
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Takeaways
• Strategise and plan for profitable growth
• Manage risk from strategy to execution
• Close loop performance tracking to strategy
with action links
• Modernize systems and processes to reduce
costs and improve information delivery
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
How Confident Are You in Developing,
Executing and Managing Strategies?
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Board of DirectorsSenior Management
Headcount Plans
FP&A
Annual Plan & Forecast
Revenue & Cost Models
Departmental Plans
TreasuryCorporate
Development
Long-Term Planning
• Complex spreadsheet models
• Spreadsheets are error prone
• Limited accounting integrity with no
overall financial impact
• Not involving business users
• Lack of integrated models make
scenario analysis cumbersome
• Limited consolidated view
• Long simulation times
• Business users plan not according to
target set
• Only KPIs dashboard without cause
and effect analysis
6
Most of Companies Are Still Relying on Conventional
Static Strategic Planning Practices
Vision
Data Collection & Assumption
Internal
(Resource)
External
(Industry,
Competitor, etc)
Model 1 Model 2 . . . . .Model
N
Scenario Simulation
Strategy
Management Judgment
& Experience
1
2
Overall Process for Strategic Management
Source: Oracle insight analysis.
3
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
KPIs Monitoring4
realign
7
Most of Companies Are Still Relying on Conventional
Static Strategic Planning Practices
Vision
Data Collection & Assumption
Internal
(Resource)
External
(Industry,
Competitor, etc)
Model 1 Model 2 . . . . .Model
N
Scenario Simulation
Strategy
Management Judgment
& Experience
1
2
Overall Process for Strategic Management
Source: Oracle insight analysis.
3
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
So, today’s tumultuous environment is either neglected or not
dynamically reflected in strategy and planning process
KPIs Monitoring4
realign
Conventional Practice
Fixed period for strategic
planning, such as 1 year
Use static, historical data
as well as assumption
about the change as the
fundamental information
for forecast
Limited, fixed model for
simulation
Strategic plan is relatively
fixed in certain period
(such as 1 year)
KPIs monitoring through
static dashboard
1
2
3
4
8
Most of Companies Are Still Relying on Conventional
Static Strategic Planning Practices
Vision
Data Collection & Assumption
Internal
(Resource)
External
(Industry,
Competitor, etc)
Model 1 Model 2 . . . . .Model
N
Scenario Simulation
Strategy
Management Judgment
& Experience
1
2
Overall Process for Strategic Management
Source: Oracle insight analysis.
3
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
So, today’s tumultuous environment is either neglected or not
dynamically reflected in strategy and planning process
KPIs Monitoring4
realign
Conventional Practice
Fixed period for strategic
planning, such as 1 year
Use static, historical data
as well as assumption
about the change as the
fundamental information
for forecast
Limited, fixed model for
simulation
Strategic plan is relatively
fixed in certain period
(such as 1 year)
KPIs monitoring through
static dashboard
1
2
3
4
Reality
Difficult to obtain accurate
external data (especially
difficult for competitors’ data,
even for historical information)
Significant uncertainty for
both internal & external
assumption
Short time for simulation
before business decision
A lot of different possible
scenarios
The alignment between
strategy & execution is not
enough
The dashboard merely
present “problems” does not
help with finding solutions
1
2
3
4
DSTE Critical Processes
• Inventory
• Financials
• Pricing
• Sales
• Fulfillment
• Service
Target Execute AnalyzePlan
External
Parameters
Monitor
DSTE Critical Processes
Performance• Responses
• Leads
• Sales
• Costs
Con
sis
ten
t
Info
rma
tion
Marketing
Dashboard
Needs
& Reqs
Customer
InformationAnalytics
Integrated
Intelligence
Enterprise Integration
10g Data
Mining
Analytics
Sales
Dashboard
Performance
Management
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Management Judgment & Experience
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Run models for key initiatives, finalize LRP and set near term targets
Seed targets to annual operating plan
Start annual process
Update strategic plan with latest outcome and forecast
Evaluate resource and capital requirements
Long-term strategic plan
Annual budget / plan
Evaluate workforce and capital
Monthly / rolling
forecast
Monitor & Analyze
Performance
Update Strategic
Plan
DSTE Critical Processes
Assess and Manage Risk
Update forecast with latest budget and actuals
Set and communicate targets
Monitor Performance against KPIs
Analyze results and cause of actions
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Run models for key initiatives, finalize LRP and set near term targets
Seed targets to annual operating plan
Start annual process
Update strategic plan with latest outcome and forecast
Evaluate resource and capital requirements
Long-term strategic plan
Annual budget / plan
Evaluate workforce and capital
Monthly / rolling
forecast
Monitor & Analyze
Performance
Update Strategic
Plan
DSTE Critical Processes
Assess and Manage Risk
Update forecast with latest budget and actuals
Set and communicate targets
Monitor Performance against KPIs
Analyze results and cause of actions
Critical Components to Implement Strategic Planning Best Practices
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Predictive Modeling & Simulation
CorporateDevelopment
Value Management
Long-Term Financial Planning
Treasury Strategies
Planning, Budgeting & Forecasting
What-if Analysis
Plan
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Strategic Planning Best PracticesFinancial impact of key business strategies
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Predictive Modeling & Simulation
Treasury Strategies
Value Management
Long-Term Financial Planning
CorporateDevelopment
Planning, Budgeting & Forecasting
What-if Analysis
Long-Term Planning
•Product initiatives
•Capital investments
•Cashflow & earnings
•Key Performance
Metrics
Corporate
Development
•Mergers & acquisitions
•Divestitures
•Joint-ventures
Value
Management•Corporate & BU Level
•Discounted Cash Flow
•EVA
•Multiples
Treasury
Strategies
•Capital structure
•Credit rating
•Debt covenants
Plan
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Long-term Planning, Corporate Development
and Treasury in a Single Model
• Integrated financial
statements
• Project shareholder value
• Run unlimited scenarios
• Consolidate multiple
business combinations
• Evaluate strategic projects
• Simulate effects of M&A
• Debt Scheduling
• Optimize capital structure
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Plan
Built-in Corporate Finance LogicAccounting Integrity and Modeling Speed
• Analyze Trail Feature
• Visualize model logic
• Consolidation Intelligence
• Complex entity structures
• “What-If” Analysis Toolkit
• Unlimited scenarios
• Goal-Seek
• Pre-built Reports, Ratios, and
Functionalities:
• Financial Statements
(BS,IS,CF, and Ratios)
• “Deal Period” Functionality
• Funding Options & Capital
Structure
• Drill-Down Functionality
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Plan
Treasury Toolkit
• Calculates net cash
surplus or deficit from
multiple models and
scenarios
• Funding Options tool to
re-allocate surpluses and
fund deficits
• Debt scheduler
• User-defined reports to
monitor covenants, credit
ratings, and earnings per
share
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Plan
Investment Analysis Tools
• Pre-built valuation logic
(NPV, IRR, etc.)
• Purchase accounting for
acquisitions
• Movable Deal Period
• Include/Exclude option
• Fiscal year-end conversion
• Divestiture logic
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Plan
Quantify Risk and Uncertainty
• Only 3 possible outcomes
• Limited view of risk
• What are most important risk factors?
• What are the odds I’ll miss the target?
• Which outcome is most likely?
ConventionalSingle Point Scenarios
• Full range of outcomes
• Illustrate probability of outcomes
• Immediate visibility into inherent risk
• True risk analysis for financial models
AdvancedThinking in Ranges
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Plan
Apply Monte Carlo Simulation To Measure
the Effects of Uncertainty
• Assign probability distributions to uncertain assumptions
• Run thousands of simulations
• Analyze range of outcomes and probabilities
• Assess model sensitivities
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Plan
Financial Forecasting
• Gauge success potential for R&D projects
• Deal structuring
• Valuation of new product opportunities
• Sales forecasting
• Forecasting Marketing ROI
Portfolio Optimization• Financial analysis for compounds and portfolios • R&D portfolio management
Capacity Planning• Determine staffing needs based on the product pipeline
forecast • Supply chain management: determine safety stock
levels at international distribution centers • Production forecasts
Simulation and Modeling use cases
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Plan
CapExp Decisions• Which country and projects to invest in• Acquisition evaluations• Acquisition/upgrade of equipment or software• Upgrade an existing production line or build new
Engineering / Quality• Developing and optimization of designs• Analyzing tolerance and reliability• Selecting optimal projects• Simulating processes when historical data is lacking
Simulation and Modeling use cases
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Plan
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Oracle's Integrated Enterprise Planning
INTEGRATED
ENTERPRISE
PLANNING
OPERATIONAL PLANNING
STRATEGIC PLANNING
Long-Range
Plan
Major
Investments
& Strategy
Treasury
Strategies
M&A and
Divestitures
Annual PlanDepartmental
BudgetsForecasting
Workforce,
Capital and
Projects etc.
Target
Setting
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Run models for key initiatives, finalize LRP and set near term targets
Seed targets to annual operating plan
Start annual process
Update strategic plan with latest outcome and forecast
Evaluate resource and capital requirements
Long-term strategic plan
Annual budget / plan
Evaluate workforce and capital
Monthly / rolling
forecast
Monitor & Analyze
Performance
Update Strategic
Plan
DSTE Critical Processes
Assess and Manage Risk
Update forecast with latest budget and actuals
Set and communicate targets
Monitor Performance against KPIs
Analyze results and cause of actions
Target to Plan and ForecastShortens Planning Cycles and Improves Business
Predictability
• Centralized system
• Powerful workflow and
process management
• Robust data integration and
Audit Trail
• Leverages Essbase – powerful
reporting and analysis
• Align top-down and bottom-up
• Driver-based forecasting
• Involve business users
• Plans against Target - better
alignment of plans to strategy
24Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Execute
Predictive Analytics for advanced
forecasting
• Time Series
Forecasting
• Library of
Forecasting
Methods
• Sensitivity
Analysis
• Monte Carlo
Simulation
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ExecutePlanExecute
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Run models for key initiatives, finalize LRP and set near term targets
Seed targets to annual operating plan
Start annual process
Update strategic plan with latest outcome and forecast
Evaluate resource and capital requirements
Long-term strategic plan
Annual budget / plan
Evaluate workforce and capital
Monthly / rolling
forecast
Monitor & Analyze
Performance
Update Strategic
Plan
DSTE Critical Processes
Assess and Manage Risk
Update forecast with latest budget and actuals
Set and communicate targets
Monitor Performance against KPIs
Analyze results and cause of actions
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Performance Monitoring and Management Collaborate, Manage, Align
Collaborate :
• Communicate vision and strategy
through graphic visualization
Define Responsiblity :
• Accountability for actions and initiatives
Assign Actions :
• Link objectives to actions supported by
KPIs
Benefits
– Closed loop performance management
– Provides timely, function- and role-
based KPI’s and alerts
– Enables decision making within
effective time window
Monitor &
Analyze
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OSSM Offers
KPI Management
• Performance Tracking
– Against Target / Trending
– Threshold Assessment
• Ownership Definition
• Collaboration
– Threaded Discussions
– Related Documents
– Action Links
– Agents
– Drill to Analysis
– Watch Lists
Monitor &
Analyze
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OSSM Offers
Strategy Management
• Graphic Visualizations of Strategy:
– Strategy Maps
– Strategy Trees
– Cause and Effect Maps
– Custom Visualizations
• Scorecards
• Collaboration– Threaded Discussions
– Related Documents
– Action Links
– Agents
Monitor &
Analyze
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OSSM Offers
An Interactive, Collaborative Environment
• Dashboard integration– Embed scorecard visualizations
into dashboards to foster broadinteractive analyses
• KPI Agents – To monitor performance
even when you can’t
• KPI & Scorecard Actions– Align day-to-day decisions with your
corporate strategy
• Annotations & Overrides– Collaborate and document exceptions
to prevent future recurrences
Monitor &
Analyze
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Strategy Artifacts present visibility and insight
into strategy performance
Better decisions, actions, control at all levels
Respond faster to opportunities and threats
Identify and replicate best practices
Key Benefits of Oracle Scorecard and Strategy
Management
• Insight
• Alignment
• Leverage
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Gain a single, consistent view of enterprise
information across functions & data sources
Align strategy and execution across functions
Use guided analytics and best practice analytic
workflows to drive the best actions
Key Benefits of Oracle Scorecard and Strategy
Management
• Insight
• Alignment
• Leverage
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Key Benefits of Oracle Scorecard and Strategy
Management
Do more with less - deploy BI more broadly
with fewer IT resources than custom-build
Accelerate time-to-value, lower TCO and risk
Increase the utility of existing data and
applications, including CRM and ERP
• Insight
• Alignment
• Leverage
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Run models for key initiatives, finalize LRP and set near term targets
Seed targets to annual operating plan
Start annual process
Update strategic plan with latest outcome and forecast
Evaluate resource and capital requirements
Long-term strategic plan
Annual budget / plan
Evaluate workforce and capital
Monthly / rolling
forecast
Monitor & Analyze
Performance
Update Strategic
Plan
Oracle Supports Huawei's DSTE Processes
Assess and Manage Risk
Update forecast with latest budget and actuals
Set and communicate targets
Monitor Performance against KPIs
Analyze results and cause of actions
CUSTOMER SUCCESS
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Selection of Strategy Management Customers
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Customers Success Stories
• Plan for IPO and simulation for new stores opening
• Reduce strategic planning cycle by 50% to 3 months
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• Treasury Modeling for a Debt Refinancing
• Ran over 1200 alternative financing assumptions to communicate
with banks and amend loan agreement
• Scenario time reduced from 3 days to 10 minutes
• Reduced optimal facility utilization analysis from
months to weeks
• Made proactive decisions based on changing market
prices and environmental regulations
• Analysis of new product lines and acquisition targets integrated into
3-year plan
• Complete enterprise planning process with periodic updates of
budget and actual data for new iterations of the strategic plan
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Oracle Supports Huawei's DSTE Processes
Greater insight into business performance
• Results versus plan for strategy
Closed loop performance management
• Timely, function- and role-based KPI’s and alerts; enables
decision making within effective time window
Integrated financial and operational planning
• Improves demand driven operations and profitability
Best in class risk managed financial strategic plan, budgeting,
modeling solution improves accuracy of plans
Target Execute AnalyzePlan Monitor
DSTE Critical Processes
Performance• Responses
• Leads
• Sales
• Costs
Takeaways
• Strategise and plan for profitable growth
• Manage risk from strategy to execution
• Close loop performance tracking to strategy
with action links
• Modernize systems and processes to reduce
costs and improve information delivery
Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.