COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Space Weather and Management of Environmental Risks and Hazards

Risto Pirjola, Kirsti Kauristie, Hanna Lappalainen

Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space Research Unit

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Contents

• General about Space Weather

• ESA & EU GMES Programme

• Space Weather and Risk Management

• Conclusions

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

’Space Weather’ (whose origin is in solar activity) refers to time-variable particle and electromagnetic conditions in the near-Earth space that may cause problems to space-borne and ground-based technological systems and even endanger human health.

This is the definition adopted from the US National Space Weather Program.

Does space weather only exist when technological systems are present (cf. terrestrial weather)?

Is all solar-terrestrial research space weather research?

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Spacecraft environment

• Energetic particles and radiation:– charging– single event effects– erosion

• Electromagnetic variations:– particle acceleration– induced currents– attitude control

• Atmospheric drag:– changes in orbits– attitude control– space debris

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Ionospheric effectson communication and navigation

• Phenomena:– solar UV and X-ray radiation– auroral particles– ionospheric irregularities

• Consequences:– unpredictable variations in the ionosphere– scintillation

• Vulnerable technology:– ground-to-ground and ground-to-satellite communication– GPS and other global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Effects below the ionosphere

• Aviation:– cosmic rays, solar

energetic particles, ionospheric variability

– aircraft crew and passengers, electronics, communication and navigation

• Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC):– geomagnetic field

variations, geoelectric field

– electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables, railway systems

(Figure by FMI)

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Effects on power transmission systems

• Saturation of transformers, which may lead to:

• Production of harmonics

• Relay trippings

• Increased reactive power demands

• Voltage fluctuations

• Unbalanced network, even a collapse

• Magnetic stray fluxes in transformers

• Hot spots in transformers, even permanent damage

Finnish Meteorological InstituteFinnish Meteorological Institute

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Finnish high-voltage power system

Finnish Meteorological InstituteFinnish Meteorological Institute

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Measurements of GICin the Finnish high-voltage power system

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GMES RISK MANAGEMENT

• The term ”Risk Management” is determined via the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES)Programme

Objective: to establish European capability for the provision and use of operational information for GMES purposes in 2008:

-Initial Period 2001-2003; -Implementation Period 2004-2007

o ESA: Earth Observation, GMES Service Element (GSE)o EU: Sub-Area in the Aeronautics and Space Priority of

the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6)

• GMES Priority Themes contain ”Systems for Risk Management”.

– Goal: risk management in areas critical for Europe (floods, forest fires, oil spills, landslides, stability of man made structures, etc.)

– Relevance: citizens’ concerns; public security; etc.– Potential users: governmental (national and regional) civil protection agencies

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

GSE Risk Services• 10 Services in the consolidation phase• 3...5 will be selected for continuation.• Most services monitor changes slower than relevant time scales in

Space Weather.• An exception: RISK-EOS

– prevention, early warning, crisis and post-crisis management– focus on floods and forest fires

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

GSE implementation plan

FP6 calls

SDAs+SWENET

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Space Weather&

GMES

• Space weather issues should follow the ’GMES philosophy’: Space weather is both a direct natural hazard and an indirect risk to monitoring other hazards.

• Three main application areas:

– satellite environment– effects on telecommunication and navigation– safety of aviation

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Space Weather & GMES

• to identify space weather risks to near real-time GMES services

• to prototype and demonstrate operational services for managing space weather risks to remote sensing systems, to telecommunication and navigation and to aviation

• to envisage future space weather research areas that are most important for GMES activities

• to specify areas and tasks best suited for international and European collaboration

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Space Weather & Risk Management

• Solving how serious consequences space weather can cause to risk management activities and determining the occurrence rates of different failures would be the first tasks in a ‘SpaceWeather/GMES’ project.

OASIS

• Examples of GMES Risk Management projects prone to disturbances produced by space weather

DISMAR

RISK-EOS

Space Weather

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Space Weather & Risk Management

RISK-EOS (<--> EURORISK)

http://www.risk-eos.com/

• risk management project in GSE

• operational services for flood and forest fire monitoring and management

• utilises satellite observations in combination with other data sources (ground-based, air-borne and marine) and models

   

                         

Space Weather

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Space Weather & Risk Management

DISMAR (Data Integration System for Marine Pollution and Water Quality)

http://www.nersc.no/Projects/dismar

• aims at an advanced information system for monitoring marine environment

• utilises radar and optical data from Earth Observation satellites

Space Weather

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Space Weather & Risk Management

OASIS

• selected IP in EU FP6 (IST)

• aims at setting up a crisis management infrastructure

• communication, positioning and data transfer must be available 24 h per day

• utilises satellite and ground-based systems

• dependent on GPS or other global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)

Space Weather

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Space Weather Risk Indices & Risk Management

• Space Weather Risk Indices will be developed and used to describe the operational conditions of different technological systems from the space weather viewpoint.

• A service prototype for operational monitoring of Space Weather Risk Indices in the application areas:

– satellite services

– RF communication

– aviation

• Support from the following research areas:

– solar data and models

– radiation environment

– ionospheric conditions

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

ESA Space Weather Pilot Project & GMES Risk Management

• ESA SWPP = 17 Service Development Activities (SDA) in 2003-2005

– ‘GEISHA’ (ONERA, France) -> Satellite Environment

• Investigations of occurrence rates of satellite anomalies due to radiation effects

– ‘SWIPPA’ (DLR, Germany) -> Ionospheric effects on communication and navigation

• Improved monitoring of ionospheric conditions above Europe (TEC maps, scintillation model)

– ‘SOARS’ (UCL, UK) -> Aviation

• Prediction and mitigation of space weather effects on aviation systems (electronics, navigation, communication, air traffic management)

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

EXAMPLE OF SPACE WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT

Case: Aviation, Oct.-Nov. 2003Unexpected solar activity at the end of October and beginning November 2003 had remarkable effects on the operation of commercial airlines. The disruptions in the communication were sufficiently serious that the flow of air traffic in certain corridors had to be reduced. This was the case particularly across the North Atlantic where aircraft had to be spaced further apart due to concerns that communications would be disrupted at critical times. Concerns about enhanced radiation levels led to advise aircraft to fly at lower altitudes. As a consequence, aircraft carried additional fuel loads and were sometimes forced to follow different routes. Warnings of this severity were not issued to European airlines. In hindsight, the European response was more appropriate for the observed activity. The intensity of the solar energetic particle emission in Oct.-Nov. 2003 remained much lower than during some past events - e.g. in 1956 - and plans of responses to such risk levels are essential.

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

FICTITIOUS EXAMPLE OF SPACE WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT

Scenario:• Harsh meteorological conditions and a strong space weather storm (similar

to the Oct.-Nov. 2003 storm) occur simultaneously.• An oil tanker and a passenger ship are involved in a boat accident on the

Baltic Sea.• Crisis management is coordinated by a centre with a fixed or mobile

position. The rescue teams are equipped with GPS.Challenges:• to monitor the rapidly varying meteorological conditions• to maintain the voice transfer at any time between the coordination centre,

the rescue teams and, if possible, the ships involved in the accident • to locate the rescue teams (the positions must be refreshed every few

minutes).• to monitor the oil leakage via optical images to be refreshed every 15

minutes

ESA/ Envisat / ASAR - MERIS

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

SPACE WEATHER RISK SERVICE MODULES:-Earth Observation Satellites -Telecommunication & Navigation -Ground-Based Technological Systems & Aviation

INPUT DATA

DATAEuropean Space Agency

Space Weather European Network (SWENET) NOAA-SEC Replica

SOHOACEGOES

Ground-BasedNetworks

Risk IndicesWarnings - Nowcasts - Forecasts

GMES Service Centre

Space Weather Risk Service

COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

Conclusions

• Space weather with its impacts on technological systems in space and on the ground is an application of solar-terrestrial physics.

• The ESA & EU GMES programme provides a good reason to sharpen European space weather activities.

• Regarding GMES, space weather should be considered to be a direct natural hazard and an indirect risk to monitoring of other hazards.

• Space weather is being introduced to EU FP6, and a success now may facilitate possibilities of broader space weather projects in FP7.

• Future funding from EU and ESA for space weather purposes requires the definition of applications, services and customers.

• Continuous basic scientific research is needed in solar-terrestial physics to develop space weather services.