cost 355 madrid mai 2007 1 estimating total mileage at the national level estimating total mileage...

COST 355 Madrid mai 20071

Estimating total mileage at the national levelEstimating total mileage at the national level

Modelling versus mobility surveyModelling versus mobility survey

[email protected], DEST

[email protected] , DEST


Contents of the presentationContents of the presentation

• Introduction: comparing estimation of the French road demand for 1993

• Presentation of the Kilom model

• Presentation of the NTS

• Results

• Conclusions


IntroductionIntroduction

• Estimating the total mileage and its evolution by types of vehicles is a corner stone of the understanding of the mobility at the national level.

• In France, we can estimate the road demand by two ways: • using the KILOM model or• with the National Travel Surveys (NTS)



• The Kilom model:

• the total mileage estimation is based on the vehicle fleet and on fuel consumption, fuel price and average fuel consumption.

• This KILOM model set up for France for 1957-1993 and now updated to 2005.



• The French NTS 1993-1994: 3 ways to estimate the total mileage:• from the vehicle fleet description where we asked the annual

mileage by type of activities for each household’s vehicle• from the car diary, in each household we have selected one

car and all drivers of the selected car have to fill the car diary

• from the description of the daily mobility, in each household one person was selected to describe the mobility he had experienced the day before the interview.

• These three estimations can be crossed.


The KILOM modelThe KILOM model

• What is estimated? • a monthly estimation of the road demand i.e. the

total mileage on any find of road networks and for all kind of road engines.

• for the whole French territory (excluding Corsica and the overseas territories)

• An estimation putting in balance fuel deliveries and actual consumption of fuel


The KILOM model (continue)The KILOM model (continue)

• For 5 categories of vehicles

• 1/ cars for personal and professional uses

• 2/ pick up weighted under 5 tones

• 3/ trucks weighted over 5 tones (a distinction being set up between the 5 t to 10 t lorries and the lorries over 10 t)

• 4/ bus and coaches

• 5/ motorized two-wheels.



• The conceptual architecture of the model:

10 0

0 0

( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )

i i i i

i ii i

i i

CT e CT dKP

KP e CU e KP d CU d

KP e KP d



• Two steps of computation:

• 1/ to collect and compute the input series• 2/ to compute the monthly estimation by 5 modulus (output

series)



• 1/ the FLEET modulus

• 2/ the CONSO modulus

• 3/ the ESCAPES modulus which computes the monthly correction of the fuel deliveries by the escapes at the borders based on the monthly variation of prices

• 4/ the KILOMMOY modulus which gives a seasonal index of mileage for each category of vehicles

• 5/ the CALCULATION modulus which estimates KP1 on the KM=CT/CU and gives a monthly mileage for each category of vehicles in France


Short presentation of the French NTS (1/2)Short presentation of the French NTS (1/2)

The French National Passenger Travel Survey (French NPTS) 1993-94 is the fourth survey conducted by INSEE since mid sixties on this topic.

It retains the definitions and the essential principles used previously to maintain the statistic continuity over time. Its purpose is to describe the trips made by households living in France.

Specifically, it attempts to capture all trips made, whatever their purpose, mode of transport, length, period in the year or time of the day. It also includes questions about the level of access to public transport and the ownership of private vehicles by each household.



The French NTS is organised with the 3 main following topics :

Trips description ; knowledge the household car fleet and car used ; Accessibility to public transport and fare subscription to PT

As there are many data collection instruments, the mileage can be computed from :• Vehicle fleet description (card-index) • car diary• Description of the daily mobility


Mileage from Vehicle fleet description Mileage from Vehicle fleet description

The car card-index concerns any type of vehicles that are at disposal of the household (about 19000 card-index in the NTS 1993-94):- private car- camper- pick up trucks- little cars (car being driven without a licence)- quadricycle, motorised tricycle ..

Note that for cars at disposal since less than one year (new purchase cars) in the household the reported mileage is the mileage since the purchase.


ResultsResults

• The KILOM model 1957-1995• 1/ the increasing mileage of cars and trucks all over the

period, not only because of the increasing size of the light vehicles fleet, but mainly because of the increasing mobility of the French population (as a consequence of various factors as the urban sprawl, the increase of vacations days);

• 2/ the evolution of the composition of the “light vehicles” fleet: a substitution has taken place between gasoline engines and diesel one, due to the law price of diesel comparing to the price of gasoline.


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

Jan-

56

Jul-

57

Jan-

59

Jul-

60

Jan-

62

Jul-

63

Jan-

65

Jul-

66

Jan-

68

Jul-

69

Jan-

71

Jul-

72

Jan-

74

Jul-

75

Jan-

77

Jul-

78

Jan-

80

Jul-

81

Jan-

83

Jul-

84

Jan-

86

Jul-

87

Jan-

89

Jul-

90

Jan-

92

Jul-

93

Jan-

95

mil

lion

of v

ehic

ule*

km

Distance travelled by month (for “light vehicles”)


Results (continue)Results (continue)

• The French NTS 1993:

• In each household we have selected one car, and all drivers had to fill the diary during 7 days (there was few non-response, about 10% of the motorised household refused to fill the 7 days, 197000 trips recorded).

• With this survey instrument we can compute also the overall total distance travelled by car.


Results: Results: NTSNTS vs Kilom vs Kilom

In million

Gazoline

Diesel Total Gazoline

Diesel Total

Pers.

Cars

190472 100560 291032 226985 132271 359256

Pick up

Cars

8955 21574 30529 16611 61894 78504

Total 199427 122134 321561 243596 194165 437760


conclusionsconclusions

• The KiILOM model and the NTS: two kind of long term analyses which are not competing but on the contrary which are complementary • A dynamic understanding of road demand and mobility• A cross-section analysis of the determinants of the road

demand and mobility

• Discrepancies can be explained:• Differences in scope• Differences in methodolgy • Measurement errors


Thank for your attentionThank for your attention

Questions and comments are expected

cost 355 madrid mai 2007 1 estimating total mileage at the national level estimating total mileage...

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