cost benefit analysis of the no child left behind act of 2001 (nclb) presented by surendrakumar...
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Cost Benefit Analysis of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001
(NCLB)
Presented bySurendrakumar Bagde
Peter EdelmanDavid Lee4/28/2004
NCLB Background
We explored three aspects NCLB
Background of NCLB
Declining test scores Other education acts NCLB features
NCLB Costs NCLB Benefits
Student Intellectual Achievement Declined in the 1970’s
GeneralIntellectualAchievement(GIA)declined in the1970’s
Source: Bishop (1989)
NCLB Established Accountability Standards that Are Expected to Enhance Student Achievement
Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP)
Testing States set the
standards Penalties for failure to
meet AYP
Congress Responded to the Decline Elementary and Secondary Education Act of
1965 (ESEA)
Provided funding and assistance to K-12 schools
No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB)
Maintains ESEA principles & act appropriations Establishes accountability standards
NCLB requirements have caused controversy
Conflicts with state standards
Forces schools to focus on testing
Addresses failure through punishment instead of assistance
NCLB Costs
Costs of the NCLB Program are Hotly Debated
A politically charged debate Federal vs. State and Local Supporters vs. Haters
Fundamental disagreement on what the cost scope of the NCLB project should be
Difference in expected States’ level in academic proficiency under IASA vs. actual proficiency
Goals of NCLB (2002~2014)
1) Meet state-set standards for subject mastery within time-frame
2) Ensure states assess student knowledge to check #1
3) Define and implement teacher quality improvement efforts to achieve #2
4) Define ways that can improve schools’ performance
5) Ensure student performance feedback to parents is effective
6) Gives freedom in allocation of funds by states to achieve all these goals
Cost Components of NCLB
Accountability (AYP and Student Assessments) Annual testing of students
Reading (grades 3~8) Math (grades 3~8) Science (grades 3~5, 6~9, and 10~12) English for LEP students Disability students (IDEA)
Personnel Attracting hiring high-quality teachers/paraprofessionals Retention
Information Management Database systems for analyzing data Reporting and monitoring
School Improvement Corrective action on “delinquent” schools Student support systems to increase performance
Cost Estimates (2002~2006):NCLB incremental costs over IASA, etc.
Costs for 2002~3 and 2003~4 are actual figures Costs from 2004~2008 are projections by ELC
$ 6,127,229,843 $ 5,729,327,461 $ 3,698,870,918 $ 1,964,169,338 In 2002 Real Terms (2.45%)
$ 6,588,704,953 $ 6,013,503,535 $ 3,789,493,255 $ 1,964,169,338 Total Each Year
$ 1,510,585,116 $ 1,409,127,907 $ 876,323,325 $ 388,125,000 School Improvement
$ 66,912,016 $ 65,311,875 $ 63,750,000 $ 127,500,000 Information Management
$ 4,272,403,755 $ 4,170,233,046 $ 2,553,619,930 $ 1,152,744,338 Personnel
$ 738,804,066 $ 368,830,707 $ 295,800,000 $ 295,800,000 Accountability
2005-62004-52003-42002-3
$ 6,127,229,843 $ 5,729,327,461 $ 3,698,870,918 $ 1,964,169,338 In 2002 Real Terms (2.45%)
$ 6,588,704,953 $ 6,013,503,535 $ 3,789,493,255 $ 1,964,169,338 Total Each Year
$ 1,510,585,116 $ 1,409,127,907 $ 876,323,325 $ 388,125,000 School Improvement
$ 66,912,016 $ 65,311,875 $ 63,750,000 $ 127,500,000 Information Management
$ 4,272,403,755 $ 4,170,233,046 $ 2,553,619,930 $ 1,152,744,338 Personnel
$ 738,804,066 $ 368,830,707 $ 295,800,000 $ 295,800,000 Accountability
2005-62004-52003-42002-3
Cost Estimates (2006~2010):NCLB incremental costs over IASA, etc.
We have estimated cost projections from 2008~2014
$ 6,731,199,961 $ 6,461,972,222 $ 6,383,736,711 $ 6,192,361,325 In 2002 Real Terms (2.45%)
$ 7,974,000,000 $ 7,472,000,000 $ 7,205,013,195 $ 6,821,881,018 Total Each Year
$ 1,900,000,000 $ 1,800,000,000 $ 1,735,940,246 $ 1,619,347,244 School Improvement
$ 74,000,000 $ 72,000,000 $ 70,230,869 $ 68,551,360 Information Management
$ 4,800,000,000 $ 4,600,000,000 $ 4,484,316,050 $ 4,377,077,647 Personnel
$ 1,200,000,000 $ 1,000,000,000 $ 914,526,030 $ 756,904,767 Accountability
2009-102008-92007-82006-7
$ 6,731,199,961 $ 6,461,972,222 $ 6,383,736,711 $ 6,192,361,325 In 2002 Real Terms (2.45%)
$ 7,974,000,000 $ 7,472,000,000 $ 7,205,013,195 $ 6,821,881,018 Total Each Year
$ 1,900,000,000 $ 1,800,000,000 $ 1,735,940,246 $ 1,619,347,244 School Improvement
$ 74,000,000 $ 72,000,000 $ 70,230,869 $ 68,551,360 Information Management
$ 4,800,000,000 $ 4,600,000,000 $ 4,484,316,050 $ 4,377,077,647 Personnel
$ 1,200,000,000 $ 1,000,000,000 $ 914,526,030 $ 756,904,767 Accountability
2009-102008-92007-82006-7
Cost Estimates (2010~2014):NCLB incremental costs over IASA, etc.
$ 17,609,873,255 $ 7,206,477,812 $ 7,059,727,076 $ 6,901,459,866 In 2002 Real Terms (2.45%)
$ 22,982,000,000 $ 9,180,000,000 $ 8,778,000,000 $ 8,376,000,000 Total Each Year
$ 2,300,000,000 $ 2,200,000,000 $ 2,100,000,000 $ 2,000,000,000 School Improvement
$ 82,000,000 $ 80,000,000 $ 78,000,000 $ 76,000,000 Information Management
$ 5,600,000,000 $ 5,400,000,000 $ 5,200,000,000 $ 5,000,000,000 Personnel
$ 15,000,000,000 $ 1,500,000,000 $ 1,400,000,000 $ 1,300,000,000 Accountability
2013-142012-132011-122010-11
$ 17,609,873,255 $ 7,206,477,812 $ 7,059,727,076 $ 6,901,459,866 In 2002 Real Terms (2.45%)
$ 22,982,000,000 $ 9,180,000,000 $ 8,778,000,000 $ 8,376,000,000 Total Each Year
$ 2,300,000,000 $ 2,200,000,000 $ 2,100,000,000 $ 2,000,000,000 School Improvement
$ 82,000,000 $ 80,000,000 $ 78,000,000 $ 76,000,000 Information Management
$ 5,600,000,000 $ 5,400,000,000 $ 5,200,000,000 $ 5,000,000,000 Personnel
$ 15,000,000,000 $ 1,500,000,000 $ 1,400,000,000 $ 1,300,000,000 Accountability
2013-142012-132011-122010-11
Total Cost Estimates for NCLB
Components Total 2002~2014
Accountability $ 24,770,665,570
Personnel $ 51,610,394,766
Information Management $ 924,256,120
School Improvement $ 19,839,448,838
Total $ 97,144,765,294
In 2002 Real Terms (2.45%) $ 82,066,405,788
NCLB Benefits
Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA)
Determines how well children are learning at certain grade levels.
Subjects are: reading, math and writing PSSA has a range of 800-1600 The standard deviation for 5th grade math is
67.1, reading 5th grade is 59.59,8th grade math is 65.8,
The mean is around 1330
Source: Davare (2004 )
Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA)
By 2014 the minimum score at the proficient level has to be 1300
The new mean score will be 1450 (range has to b3 1300-1600)
The quality improvement, taken as difference between two means, is 120
In terms of today’s standard deviation, quality improvement is 1.84*s.d.
Source: Davare (2004 )
Economic Benefits of Quality Improvement
Test performance have the effect on earning potential of individuals
One standard deviation difference on test performance is related to 1 % difference in annual growth rates of GDP per capita
An improvement of 1 s.d. would put U.S. student performance in line with that of students in a variety of high performing European countries
Quality Improvements have high pay-offs
Present Value of Benefits
5900
11803
17704
0.5 S.D. 1 S.D. 1.5 S.D.
Quality Improvement in S.D.
PV
B in
$ 2
00
2 b
illio
ns
Source: Hanushek (2004)
Conclusions
Present value of benefits is projected to range from $6T to $17T.
Benefits far exceed costs, thus NPV is insensitive to cost levels & discount rate.
Reverses the trend of U. S. students falling behind students in other countries
Bibliography:Bishop, John H. “Is the Test Score Decline Responsible for the Productivity Growth Decline?”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 1, March 1989, p. 178-197
Wermers, Jason, “’No Child’ called impractical”, Richmond Times-Dispatch, http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename= RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031773592674 February 10, 2004
Davare, Dave, director of research, Pennsylvania School Boards Association, personal communication through Robert Strauss, April 27, 2004
Hanushek, Eric A., “Some Simple Analytics of School Quality”, Working Paper 10229, National Bureau of Economic Research, http://www.nber.org/papers/w10229 , January, 2004
Accountability Works, “NCLB Under a Microscope”, Education Leaders Council, January 2004.
Mathis, William J., “No Child Left Behind, Costs and Benefits”, Phi Delta Kappan, www.pdkintl.org/kappan/k0305mat.htm.
Hanushek, Eric A., “The Importance of School Quality”, Education Next, Spring 2003, http://www.educationnext.org/unabridged/20032/141.pdf , viewed 4/29/04