country report by the economist magazine: bosnia february 2011

Country Report

Bosnia and Hercegovina

February 2011

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Bosnia and Hercegovina 1

Country Report February 2011 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2011

Bosnia and Hercegovina

Executive summary 3 Highlights

Outlook for 2011-12 4 Political outlook 6 Economic policy outlook 7 Economic forecast

Monthly review: February 2011 9 The political scene 10 Economic policy 11 Economic performance

Data and charts 14 Annual data and forecast 15 Quarterly data 16 Monthly data 18 Annual trends charts 19 Monthly trends charts 20 Comparative economic indicators

Country snapshot 21 Basic data 22 Political structure

Editors: Gabriel Partos (editor); Toby Iles (consulting editor)

Editorial closing date: February 1st 2011

All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: To request the latest schedule, e-mail [email protected]

2 Bosnia and Hercegovina


CROATIA

ALBANIA

BOSNIA AND HERCEGOVINABOSNIA AND HERCEGOVINABOSNIA AND HERCEGOVINA

HUNGARY

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

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ModricaModricaModrica

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Kladanj

OrasjeOrasjeOrasje

Bosanski NoviBosanski Novi

PrijedorPrijedor

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Banja LukaBanja LukaBanja Luka

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Federation ofFederation ofBosnia and HercegovinaBosnia and Hercegovina

Federation ofBosnia and Hercegovina

RepublikaRepublikaSrpskaSrpska

RepublikaSrpska

RepublikaRepublikaSrpskaSrpska

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SavaR .

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2011

0 km 25 50 75 100

0 miles 25 50

Main railway

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International boundary

Inter-Entity BoundaryLine (IEBL)

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Executive summary

Highlights

February 2011

• The precarious political stability in Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH) will come under strain as politicians try to form coalition governments following the elections on October 3rd, and as austerity measures fuel social unrest.

• The focus on the coalition talks will delay agreement on reforms required for BiH's closer integration with the EU as the political parties representing different constituent peoples jockey for position.

• The international Office of the High Representative (OHR), which has overseen BiH's post-war development since 1995, is likely to be closed by 2012.

• The new president of Republika Srpska (RS), Milorad Dodik, will continue to assert the powers of his entity against efforts by Western countries and Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) leaders to strengthen central state institutions.

• The RS and BiH's other entity, the Bosniak-Bosnian Croat Federation, will tighten fiscal policy, as required by BiH's stand-by agreement with the IMF, having put off several austerity measures before the elections.

• The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that, after an estimated rebound in real GDP of 0.8% in 2010, economic growth will accelerate from 2.1% in 2011 to 3% in 2012, as external and domestic demand begin to pick up.

• The current-account deficit is forecast to shrink from an estimated 5.8% of GDP in 2010 to an average of 4.6% of GDP in 2011-12 as exports recover and tighter fiscal policies in BiH initially limit import demand growth.

• The Party of Democratic Action (SDA), representing Bosniaks, held talks in January with the main Bosnian Croat parties in a bid to end the deadlock hindering the formation of a new government in the Federation.

• The High Representative, Valentin Inzko, has suspended the RS law on state property, pending a Constitutional Court ruling about the status of the law.

• In January the Federation Privatisation Agency adopted a plan that envisages the resumption of large-scale privatisations in 2011.

• The RS and Federation banking agencies have extended by a further 12 months the temporary facility for rescheduling bank loans, which was due to expire at end-2010.

• Industrial output in the Federation rebounded in 2010 to 4.2% year on year, driven by higher exports. Industrial output growth in the RS slowed to 5%.

• After deflation in 2009, average inflation in 2010 amounted to 2.1% (1.8% in the Federation and 2.5% in the RS). Inflation was fuelled by higher international oil and food prices, and by increased excise duties.

Outlook for 2011-12

Monthly review



Outlook for 2011-12 Political outlook

Political stability in Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH) remains elusive in the wake of parliamentary and presidential elections held at state and entity levels on October 3rd 2010. Politicians representing the three constituent peoples�Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats�show little willingness to agree on long-delayed constitutional amendments and other reforms. With the parliamentary election results proving inconclusive, the formation of viable governing coalitions may take some time, which will further delay the reforms that BiH is required to introduce to promote its EU integration. The uncertainty over the future shape of politics is made more acute by a continuing dispute between BiH's Bosnian Serb entity, Republika Srpska (RS), and the international High Representative in BiH, Valentin Inzko, about the extent of the RS's autonomy and the limits to Mr Inzko's powers. In BiH's other entity, the Bosniak-Bosnian Croat Federation, the main parties remain at odds over a range of issues.

Three leading political forces�the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), representing Bosniaks; the Croatian Democratic Union of BiH (HDZ BiH), representing Bosnian Croats; and the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), the dominant party among Bosnian Serbs�have at times indicated their readiness for some limited constitutional reforms, and they reached an outline agreement in January 2009. However, since then the talks have remained stalled, and any prospect of constitutional reform has until now been overshadowed by electioneering, talks on forming new ruling coalitions and increasing social discontent. Tensions will be fuelled further by cuts in public-sector wages and in war veterans' benefits�as required by the stand-by arrangement approved by the IMF in mid-2009�as well as by the aftermath of the recession, with unemployment continuing to remain high.

However, the defeat of the Bosniak member of the collective state presidency, Haris Silajdzic�a firm opponent of the reform initiatives�should improve the prospects for agreement. Mr Silajdzic's replacement on the presidency, Bakir Izetbegovic of the SDA, has indicated that he is more prepared to compromise with the leading Bosnian Serb politician, Milorad Dodik, than Mr Silajdzic was. Mr Dodik, the RS president, will continue to try to recover some of the powers that were transferred in the first half of the 2000s from the RS to the state-level authorities. During the election campaign Mr Dodik repeatedly hinted at the possibility of the RS seceding from BiH. However, with the elections now over and his main adversary, Mr Silajdzic, defeated, Mr Dodik may soften his rhetoric.

Mr Dodik's moves to challenge the authority of both Mr Inzko and BiH's central state institutions have irritated the US and several other Western powers, which have responded by refusing to give a target date for closing the Office of the High Representative (OHR), as Mr Dodik�with the support of Russia�has been demanding. A decision on setting a timetable for replacing

Political stability



the High Representative with an EU Special Representative (EUSR), who would enjoy far less sweeping powers, has been repeatedly put off by the international Peace Implementation Council (PIC), which has overseen BiH's post-war development since the Dayton agreement that ended the war in 1995.

However, there is a growing conviction among a number of leading EU countries that, 15 years after the Dayton agreement, the OHR has outlived its usefulness. Given this pressure, the PIC may decide to dilute some of the conditions that BiH has to meet before a timetable can be set for closing the OHR. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects that the OHR will be phased out before the end of the forecast period.

The inconclusive election results have led to lengthy talks on the formation of coalition governments at the state and entity levels, but once these talks are concluded, they will produce a realignment in Bosnian politics. The opposition Social Democratic Party of BiH (SDP BiH)�which, although not ethnically based, enjoys most of its support among Bosniaks�emerged as the largest party in the Federation, pushing the SDA into second place. These two parties are likely to play an important role in forming a government in the Federation, where they are set to be joined by one or both of the two main Bosnian Croat parties, the HDZ BiH and the Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990).

In the state-level government, the leading Bosniak and Bosnian Croat parties are expected to be joined in a new ruling coalition by the SNSD, despite its hostility towards the SDP BiH and its leader, Zlatko Lagumdzija, who is the favourite to become prime minister. The SNSD will dominate the new RS ruling coalition, formed at end-December, as it did in the previous government. However, the centre of gravity in Bosnian Serb politics will shift from the government to the presidency now that Mr Dodik, the previous RS prime minister, has become RS president.

BiH will seek to become an EU membership candidate as the next step in its Euro-Atlantic integration, following the signing of a stabilisation and association agreement (SAA) by the two sides in June 2008. However, given the slow pace of reforms in recent years�highlighted in the European Commission's most recent annual progress report, issued in November 2010�the new central and entity governments that will emerge following the elections will need to accelerate the reform process if BiH is to be granted candidate status during the forecast period. In December 2010 the EU lifted visa requirements for Bosnian visitors to the Schengen area. However, EU integration is likely to be hindered by the loss of appetite for further enlargement among leading EU members. NATO is more willing to expand, and in April 2010 it offered BiH a Membership Action Plan (MAP), a prerequisite for joining NATO, subject to BiH introducing some reforms, including passing a law assigning defence-related property to the Ministry of Defence. Relations with Serbia are expected to continue to improve following a declaration in April 2010 by the presidents of the two countries to resolve bilateral disputes regarding the border, property and debt.

Election watch

International relations



Economic policy outlook

The three-year stand-by arrangement agreed with the IMF in May 2009, together with the SAA, will set the broad policy framework for BiH in the forecast period. Under the stand-by arrangement, BiH will concentrate on maintaining macroeconomic stability through fiscal consolidation. The agree-ment followed repeated calls from the Fund for greater fiscal discipline in BiH, especially in the Federation. Once new governments are formed at the state and Federation levels, the authorities will begin to implement in earnest the austerity measures required by the IMF. The Fund is also arguing for further structural reforms and privatisation. Although the authorities will focus in the next few months on short-term measures to mitigate the lingering impact of the global economic downturn on BiH, the sale of state-owned stakes in companies should resume in 2011.

One important consequence of the SAA�the reduction or abolition of customs duties on a wide range of imports from the EU�is already well under way, and it will continue to increase competition for many local producers. The SAA requires the BiH authorities to strengthen policy co-ordination between the entity governments and to create a single economic space in BiH.

The IMF agreement will necessitate further expenditure cuts�the more so as the authorities will no longer be allowed to use the stand-by loan to shore up the budget deficit. The cuts are expected to prompt further protests from those most affected�public-sector trade unions and war veterans' organisations. There will be attempts at fiscal tightening to cope with the expected slow increase in tax receipts, as real GDP is forecast to grow relatively modestly in 2011-12. These moves will include further public-sector wage cuts and a tightening of eligibility for war veterans' benefits, particularly in the Federation. Many of the austerity measures delayed before the elections in October 2010 are likely to be introduced once the new governments are in place. We forecast that a combination of fiscal tightening and increased tax receipts will narrow the general government deficit from the equivalent of an estimated 4.5% of GDP in 2010 to an average of 2.7% of GDP in 2011-12.

The Central Bank of BiH runs a currency board regime, whereby the convertible marka is pegged to the euro at a rate of KM1.96:�1, which means that the Central Bank has few monetary policy tools at its disposal. The IMF continues to insist that the currency board should stay in place, and the Fund's three-year stand-by loan for BiH, worth US$1.57bn, will help to support the exchange rate. In January 2011 the Central Bank lowered the commercial banks' reserve requirement on deposits with a maturity of less than one year to 10%, from the previous 14%, in a bid to boost liquidity. Similar measures taken earlier had helped credit growth to resume in the third quarter of 2010.

Policy trends

Monetary policy

Fiscal policy



Economic forecast

International assumptions summary (% unless otherwise indicated)

2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP growth World -0.8 4.8 4.0 4.1

OECD -3.5 2.9 2.3 2.1

Euro area -4.1 1.7 1.5 1.3

EU27 -4.2 1.9 1.6 1.6

Exchange rates ¥:US$ 93.7 88.0 82.4 82.4

US$:� 1.393 1.326 1.250 1.200

SDR:US$ 0.646 0.652 0.660 0.670

Financial indicators � 3-month interbank rate 1.23 0.84 1.00 1.50

US$ 3-month Libor 0.69 0.34 0.41 0.80

Commodity prices Oil (Brent; US$/b) 61.9 79.6 90.0 82.3

Gold (US$/troy oz) 973.0 1,224.7 1,331.3 1,232.5

Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms) -20.4 11.7 19.3 -8.6

Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms) -25.6 43.8 7.2 -2.8

Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

Following a contraction in real GDP of 3.1% in 2009, the economy is estimated to have returned to growth of 0.8% in 2010. The rebound was modest, because growth in private consumption was constrained by the legacy of the recession in 2009, including increased unemployment, and by the measures taken to rein in the budget deficit, such as cuts in public-sector wages and social welfare benefits. Some of these factors will continue to constrain growth in 2011, and the need for fiscal consolidation, as agreed with the IMF, will lead to further austerity measures to narrow the budget deficit. Access to credit is also likely to remain restricted, particularly as local subsidiaries of foreign-owned banks are affected by the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

Growth is expected to stem from increased demand for Bosnian exports in the euro zone and regional markets, and from a rise in workers' remittances as Western economies continue to expand. We forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.1% in 2011 and that growth will accelerate to 3% in 2012, as domestic demand picks up once unemployment has started to decline, and once companies and households have carried out the necessary balance-sheet corrections.

Inflation returned in 2010, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 2.1%, following a decline of 0.4% in 2009. We forecast that, as a result of subdued inflationary pressures, annual inflation will average 2.7% in 2011-12. Inflation will be kept in check in 2011 by weak domestic demand, depressed by high unemployment and by cuts in public-sector wages and social welfare benefits, and in 2012 by an expected decline in international oil, food and other commodity prices.

International assumptions

Inflation

Economic growth



Concerns that the convertible marka may be overvalued are likely to be eased by the weakening of the euro, to which the marka is pegged, and by the planned cuts in public-sector pay, which are likely to depress wages across the board and increase BiH's competitiveness. The Central Bank maintains sufficient reserves to cover the whole of its monetary liabilities. The level of reserves declined sharply in the first half of 2010, partly because of the delayed disbursement of several tranches of an IMF stand-by loan, but began to recover in July, following a surge of exports and an increase in foreign-currency inflows from tourism and migrant workers' remittances. A further contraction in the current-account deficit, IMF funding and fresh loans should help to increase reserves in 2011.

The import costs of energy, food and other commodities are expected to rise in 2011 before falling closer to 2010 levels in 2012, reflecting a relatively subdued global economic recovery. Import demand is set to remain sluggish in the first half of the forecast period as private consumption stagnates and the need for fiscal consolidation limits new infrastructure investment. Exports will continue to rebound, although the recovery in the euro zone and BiH's Balkan markets will take time to gather momentum. Exports will benefit from relatively high international aluminium and steel prices, following a recovery in prices in 2010. We forecast smaller current-account deficits in 2011-12, averaging 4.6% of GDP, compared with an estimated deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2010.

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated)

2009 a 2010 b 2011c 2012c

Real GDP growth -3.1 0.8 2.1 3.0

Industrial production growth -3.3 4.2 4.0 5.4

Average lending rated (%) 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1

Consumer prices (av; % change) -0.4 2.1 2.5 2.9

Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.9

Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) -8.8 -9.2 -9.8 -10.8

Current-account balance (US$ bn) -1.2 -1.0 -0.7 -0.8

Current-account balance (% of GDP) -6.9 b -5.8 -4.1 -5.0

External debt (year-end; US$ bn) 8.4 b 8.5 8.8 8.7

Exchange rate KM:US$ (av) 1.41 1.47 1.56 1.63

Exchange rate KM:US$ (end-period) 1.36 1.46 1.63 1.64

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. d Period average.

Exchange rates

External sector



Monthly review: February 2011

The political scene

On January 7th Sulejman Tihic�the chair of the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), representing Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims)�attempted to break the dead-lock in forming a ruling coalition in the Bosniak-Bosnian Croat Federation, the larger of the two entities in Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH). To this end he held talks with the leaders of the two main Bosnian Croat parties, the Croatian Democratic Union of BiH (HDZ BiH) and the Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990). Mr Tihic invited the two parties to join the political platform agreed by the SDA, the Social Democratic Party of BiH (SDP BiH; which is not ethnically based, but receives most of its support from Bosniaks), and two smaller Bosnian Croat groups, the Croatian Party of Rights of BiH (HSP BiH) and the People's Party Work for Progress. Mr Tihic's initiative came three months after the parliamentary and presidential elections, and it followed the swearing in, at the end of December, of a new government in the Bosnian Serb entity, Republika Srpska (RS).

Mr Tihic's move is likely to have had at least the tacit support of the SDP BiH and its leader, Zlatko Lagumdzija. The initiative acknowledges that it may become necessary to expand the planned ruling coalition in the Federation to include the two main Bosnian Croat parties, because without such a grand coalition the government's majority would be vulnerable to defections. The risk of such a development was demonstrated by an incident in Zenica-Doboj canton, where the People's Party Work for Progress voted for a candidate of the HDZ BiH�instead of the SDP BiH, as agreed in the coalition platform�in the election of members to the House of Peoples (the upper house of the Federation parliament). Concern about the lack of loyalty of its would-be coalition partners may have been one of the reasons that prompted the SDP BiH to consider the possibility of working with the HDZ BiH, despite the deep differences between Mr Lagumdzija and the leader of the HDZ BiH, Dragan Covic.

However, any attempt to resolve the conflict between Mr Lagumdzija and Mr Covic, both of whom want to gain the main ministerial posts in the Federation- and state-level governments for their parties, will require the co-operation of the president of the RS, Milorad Dodik. The reason that Mr Dodik may prove to be a stumbling-block to a rapprochement between Mr Lagumdzija and Mr Covic is that he and Mr Covic already have an agreement to co-operate in the formation of a state-level governing coalition. Mr Dodik has recently reaffirmed his reluctance to govern alongside the SDP BiH, which leaves little prospect that an agreement on the ruling coalition either at the Federal or state level will be reached any time soon.

On January 5th the international High Representative in BiH, Valentin Inzko, issued an order suspending the implementation of the RS law on the status of state property on the territory of the RS, pending a decision by the BiH

The SDA takes the initiative in the coalition talks

The High Representative vetoes the RS property law



Constitutional Court. Mr Inzko's move to suspend the controversial law, which the RS parliament adopted in September 2010, was timed to coincide with the coming into force of the legislation. Under a ruling issued by Paddy Ashdown, a predecessor of Mr Inzko, in 2005, the disposal of state property, including military facilities and schools, was placed under a moratorium until a consensus was reached by the BiH state- and entity-level authorities about the allocation of state property. However, the disagreement over the ownership of state property has remained unresolved, with the RS authorities insisting that state property should be allocated to the two entities, whereas the Federation argues that it should belong to the state.

The resolution of the status of state property is one of the five conditions set by the Peace Implementation Council (PIC)�the international body overseeing the execution of the Dayton peace agreement of 1995�that BiH has to meet before the Office of the High Representative (OHR) can be closed down. The replacement of the OHR by the office of an EU Special Representative (EUSR), thereby ending BiH's status as a semi-protectorate, is required before the country can apply for EU membership. Following Mr Inzko's move, Mr Dodik remained defiant, refusing to allow the publication of the High Representative's order in the RS Official Gazette. The OHR warned that any attempt to implement the suspended law would result in legal action being taken against the offender.

Economic policy

In early January the Federation Privatisation Agency adopted the privatisation plan for 2011, which envisages the sale of the remaining government stakes in 11 large companies. The privatisation list includes an aluminium smelter, Aluminij Mostar, which is the country's top exporter. It also includes three engineering companies�Hidrogradnja, Energoinvest and Unis�an insurance company, Sarajevo Osiguranje; a leading pharmaceuticals company, Bosnalijek; and the smaller of the two telecommunication operators, Croatian Telecommunications Mostar (HT Mostar). The outgoing government of Mustafa Mujezinovic leaves behind a poor record in privatisation. The government's last-ditch attempt to complete some of the sales envisaged in the previous privatisation plan, involving the sale of five companies, had to be abandoned under public pressure. Critics accused the government of trying to take advantage of the political vacuum in the wake of the elections in October 2010 to push through the sales, which had not been sufficiently prepared. The botched privatisation attempt followed the government's decision in September to start bankruptcy proceedings against a tobacco manufacturer, Fabrika Duhana Mostar, which had been the target of five failed attempts to find a buyer, and an unsuccessful attempt to sell the state's stake in HT Mostar.

The agency's 2011 privatisation plan has yet to be approved by the Federation government. However, it has already attracted critical reactions in the media, reflecting concern that the new government, hard pressed to boost its revenues, may go for another ill-conceived attempt to sell what are perceived to be strategic companies. It appears that the outgoing transport and communication

Privatisation is set to resume in the Federation



minister, Nail Seckanovic, insisted that the Federation's most profitable company, BH Telecom, be left out of the privatisation plan, despite the agency's initial intention to sell both telecoms companies.

The RS and Federation banking agencies decided to extend by a further 12 months the temporary arrangement to reschedule bank loans, which was due to expire at end-2010. The facility was first introduced in 2009, with the intention of facilitating the servicing of commercial bank loans, which had come under strain because of the worsening economic crisis, affecting households and the corporate sector. In the RS alone loans amounting to KM104m (US$72.6m) were reprogrammed in the first half of 2010, and the demand for the facility prompted the banking agencies to keep it in place until end-2011.

According to Kemal Kozaric, the governor of the Central Bank of BiH, roughly one in ten loans provided by commercial banks are not being serviced regularly. The stock of loans at end-2010 amounted to KM6.77bn (US$4.73bn) in the corporate sector and KM6.27bn in the case of households. The widespread problems relating to loan repayments have prompted the BiH Association of Banks to propose changes to the consumer protection law, which would establish the post of an ombudsman, charged with protecting the interests of the banks' clients.

Economic performance

Industrial performance, which had been hit hard by the impact of the global economic downturn, stabilised in 2010. After a decline of 11.6% year on year in 2009, industrial output in the Federation increased by 4.2% in 2010. The recovery was driven by the expansion in the production of durable consumer goods, which rose by 43.7% year on year, and by intermediate goods, rising by 8%. In contrast to the robust rebound in these two industrial groups, output in the energy sector and in non-durable consumer goods stagnated, and in capital goods it contracted, by 7.7% year on year, reflecting the continuing difficulties in investment activity. Manufacturing posted year-on-year growth of 6.9%, driven by a strong expansion of output in textiles, which rose by 28.9%, coke and refined petroleum products (up by 50.1%), rubber and plastics (up by 30.5%), and base metals (up by 18.1%). The rebound in these industries benefited from a pick-up in export demand. The energy utilities also recorded an upward trend as output rose by 2.4% year on year. These positive trends were in contrast to the ongoing deterioration in mining and quarrying, which contracted by 4.3% year on year.

Industrial output in the RS rose by 5% year on year, slowing sharply from the 19% growth recorded in 2009, which followed the resumption of production at the Bosanski Brod oil refinery at end-2008. Mining and quarrying was the fastest-growing industrial division in 2010, with output rising by 9.1% year on year, driven by a strong recovery in the mining of metal ores. Output in manufacturing increased by 5.1% compared with 2009, and in utilities it was 3% higher than a year earlier. There was robust growth in output in several key

The bank loan rescheduling facility is extended

Industrial output stabilises in 2010



manufacturing industries: production of base metals was 31.8% higher than in 2009, other machinery and equipment was 35.3% higher and other electrical equipment rose by 31.8%. The output of coke and refined petroleum products, which soared by 35 times in 2009 because of resumed operations at Bosanski Brod, increased by 12.5% year on year in 2010.

Industrial output, 2010 (% change, year on year)

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YearFederation total 4.4 -3.3 -3.3 0.9 4.3 8.6 12.3 12.7 4.2 Mining & quarrying -15.3 -12.7 -7.0 -1.6 -4.6 0.9 11.4 0.7 -4.3 Manufacturing 6.9 4.5 3.5 9.7 6.2 8.2 18.0 9.3 6.9 Electricity, gas & water 10.7 -21.8 -21.4 -21.5 5.0 15.8 -3.4 29.8 2.4Republika Srpska total 12.1 1.5 -11.5 5.9 2.5 -2.7 11.6 14.1 5.0 Mining & quarrying 1.0 -3.1 -24.7 5.2 0.8 9.1 0.0 25.9 9.1 Manufacturing 12.4 3.9 -0.1 9.4 10.8 1.8 6.8 3.9 5.1 Electricity, gas & water 17.8 0.1 -23.2 -0.9 -12.0 -15.2 26.7 23.8 3.0

Sources: Federal Office of Statistics; Republika Srpska Institute of Statistics.

In December consumer price inflation in both entities continued to accelerate, fuelled mostly by the rise in food prices. There was a 2.1% month-on-month increase in food prices in both entities, contributing to a monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) of 0.9% in the Federation and 0.8% in the RS. The CPI rose by 3.1% year on year in the Federation and by 2.5% in the RS.

Food prices declined in the first half of 2010, helping to offset the rise in the prices of alcohol and tobacco, as well as transport, which had been driven by higher excise duties and road tax, and by an increase in international oil prices. However, in the second half of the year higher international food prices contributed to a rise in food prices in BiH. Average inflation in 2010 amounted to 1.8% in the Federation and 2.5% in the RS, following deflation in 2009, when prices declined by 0.3% in the Federation and by 0.4% in the RS.

Consumer prices and wages (% change, year on year)

Source: Agency for Statistics.

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5Average net wagesConsumer price inflation

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan10

Dec2009

In December the merchandise trade deficit widened to KM673m, the largest monthly deficit since November 2008, as a result of a sharp rise in imports and a contraction in exports. The volume of imports rose by 6.7% compared with November, owing to an increase in several sectors at year-end, with the

Inflation edges up

The trade deficit widens in December



sharpest rise in motor vehicle imports, which soared by 125.6% month on month. Exports shrank by 8.3% compared with November, following a decline in manufacturing output, which was particularly pronounced in coke and refined petroleum products, chemicals and base metals. However, compared with a year earlier, exports in December continued their robust recovery, rising by 29.1%, whereas the rebound in imports was more modest, at 9.9%.

The full-year results for 2010 recorded a marked improvement in the trade balance. The trade deficit contracted by 4.5% year on year in local currency terms. Exports soared by 28.3% year on year, albeit from a low base, with the rise reflecting both a growth in the volume of foreign sales and the impact of higher international prices for some of BiH's main exports, such as base metals and electricity. Imports rebounded more modestly, by 10.2% year on year, as a result of depressed import demand, because of weak economic growth and stagnating levels of domestic consumption. Rising international oil and other commodity prices accounted for the growth in imports. The full-year trade deficit shrank to KM6.5bn from KM6.8bn in 2009. Exports in the manufacturing sector rose by 30.5% year on year, boosted by the foreign sales of coke and refined petroleum products (up by 117.7%), base metals (up by 80.6%) and chemicals (up by 26.5%).



Data and charts Annual data and forecast

Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

2006a 2007a 2008a 2009a 2010 b 2011c 2012c

GDP

Nominal GDP (US$ m) 12,237 15,227 18,501 16,940b 16,651 16,424 16,711

Nominal GDP (KM m) 19,078 21,759 24,702 23,849b 24,555 25,697 27,236

Real GDP growth (%) 6.1 6.1 5.7 -3.1 0.8 2.1 3.0

Origin of GDP (% real change)

Industry 10.4 6.7 10.2 -3.3b 4.2 4.0 5.4

Population and income

Population (m) 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8b 3.8 3.8 3.8

GDP per head (US$ at PPP) 7,244 7,918 8,564b 8,388b 8,491 8,806 9,256

Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)

General government budget revenue 47.2 46.7 45.9 44.6b 45.9 45.8 47.1

General government budget expenditure 46.1 47.0 49.5 50.3b 50.4 48.8 49.4

General government budget balance 1.1 -0.3 -3.6 -5.7b -4.5 -3.0 -2.3

Public debt 22.0 32.9 30.8 35.4b 39.1 44.0 44.5

Prices and financial indicators

Exchange rate KM:US$ (end-period) 1.49 1.33 1.41 1.36 1.46 1.63 1.64

Exchange rate KM:� (end-period) 1.96 1.94 1.95 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.96

Consumer prices (av; %) 7.2 1.6 7.4 -0.4 2.1 2.5 2.9

Stock of money M1 (% change) 23.6 21.5 -2.7 -1.8 7.0 8.0 10.0

Stock of money M2 (% change) 24.2 21.7 4.0 2.4 7.0 12.0 14.0

Lending interest rate (av; %) 8.0 7.2 7.0 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1

Current account (US$ m)

Trade balance -4,298 -5,704 -7,097 -4,749 -4,415 -4,392 -4,831

Goods: exports fob 3,381 4,243 5,194 4,080 4,805 5,382 5,920

Goods: imports fob -7,679 -9,947 -12,291 -8,829 -9,220 -9,773 -10,751

Services balance 673 879 948 765 720 800 900

Income balance 393 460 640 535 430 480 480

Current transfers balance 2,234 2,718 2,841 2,275 2,300 2,440 2,610

Current-account balance -998 -1,648 -2,669 -1,175 -965 -672 -841

External debt (US$ m)

Debt stock 7,242 8,823 8,316 8,430b 8,486 8,809 8,702

Debt service paid 327 417 432 359b 319 318 338

Principal repayments 144 127 137 137b 135 139 162

Interest 183 290 296 222b 184 179 175

International reserves (US$ m)

Total international reserves 3,372 4,525 3,516 3,245 2,400 2,950 3,300

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.



Quarterly data Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

2008 2009 2010

4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr

Output

Federation industrial production (% change year on year) 12.0 -10.9 -9.9 -12.6 -12.9 2.0 1.2 0.6

Republika Srpska industrial production (% change year on year) 41.0 13.1 21.3 17.5 23.8 6.1 8.2 -1.0

Wages and prices

Average gross monthly wages (KM) 1162 1200 1205 1200 1209 1203 1215 1218

Consumer prices (av; % change, year on year) 5.5 1.6 -1.0 -1.4 -0.7 1.7 2.6 1.9

Financial indicators

Exchange rate KM:US$ (av) 1.48 1.50 1.44 1.37 1.32 1.41 1.54 1.51

Exchange rate KM:US$ (end-period) 1.41 1.47 1.38 1.34 1.36 1.45 1.59 1.43

Deposit rate (av; %) 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.2 2.9

Lending rate (av; %) 7.4 7.5 8.1 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.6 8.0

M1 (end-period; KM m) 5,994 5,562 5,606 5,661 5,887 5,882 5,861 6,114

M1 (% change, year on year) -2.7 -7.4 -7.1 -8.7 -1.8 5.8 4.5 8.0

M2 (end-period; KM m) 12,776 12,483 12,381 12,643 12,998 13,220 13,422 13,614

M2 (% change, year on year) 4.3 0.7 -3.2 -5.8 1.7 5.9 8.4 7.7

Foreign trade & payments (US$ m)

Exports fob 1,054 828 915 1,092 1,120 1,086 1,199 1,218

Imports fob -2,662 -1,868 -2,203 -2,306 -2,441 -1,939 -2,266 -2,427

Trade balance -1,608 -1,040 -1,287 -1,214 -1,321 -854 -1,068 -1,209

Services balance 210 167 209 171 218 142 204 n/a

Income balance 91 108 155 167 105 106 103 n/a

Net transfer payments 631 519 553 605 599 494 481 n/a

Current-account balance -657 -220 -330 -251 -374 -85 -250 n/a

Reserves excl gold (end-period) 3,516 3,379 3,658 3,754 3,245 2,557 1,856 2,249

Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.



Monthly data Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Exchange rate KM:US$ (av) 2008 1.33 1.33 1.26 1.24 1.26 1.26 1.24 1.31 1.36 1.47 1.54 1.44

2009 1.48 1.53 1.50 1.48 1.44 1.40 1.39 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.31 1.34

2010 1.37 1.43 1.44 1.46 1.56 1.60 1.53 1.52 1.50 1.41 1.43 n/a

Exchange rate KM:US$ (end-period) 2008 1.32 1.29 1.24 1.26 1.26 1.24 1.25 1.33 1.37 1.53 1.54 1.41

2009 1.53 1.55 1.47 1.47 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.36

2010 1.40 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.59 1.59 1.50 1.54 1.43 1.41 1.50 n/a

M1 (% change, year on year) 2008 18.4 14.6 12.2 9.8 6.8 -3.1 -3.0 -2.7 1.2 -4.3 -5.8 -7.2

2009 -4.8 -5.7 -9.2 -9.9 -7.7 -6.9 -3.1 -6.5 -8.8 -6.8 -5.4 0.3

2010 1.2 1.4 8.0 8.8 8.5 5.4 2.7 6.9 7.8 13.1 n/a n/a

M2 (% change, year on year) 2008 31.4 28.1 27.0 25.5 23.7 10.6 11.5 10.9 10.5 2.6 1.4 -0.4

2009 -0.8 -1.2 -3.0 -4.3 -4.9 -5.9 -5.0 -6.4 -7.5 -3.4 -3.1 -0.2

2010 0.1 0.6 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.8 3.4 5.7 4.3 6.7 n/a n/a

Deposit rate (%) 2008 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.6 3.6

2009 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6

2010 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 n/a n/a

Lending rate (%) 2008 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4

2009 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1

2010 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 8.2 8.3 8.0 7.9 n/a n/a

Federation industrial production (% change, year on year) 2008 7.8 13.7 -5.7 2.5 5.1 6.7 8.3 5.2 14.9 16.0 10.5 9.4

2009 -11.1 -15.3 -5.9 -5.9 -13.2 -10.6 -11.6 -10.0 -16.2 -15.4 -13.5 -9.9

2010 0.1 3.5 2.5 2.6 4.4 -3.3 -3.3 0.9 4.3 8.6 12.3 12.7

Republika Srpska industrial production (% change, year on year) 2008 1.5 6.3 6.0 14.2 6.2 10.6 12.5 6.2 5.5 0.5 22.9 99.6

2009 3.8 10.4 23.8 28.1 17.3 18.5 19.3 11.8 21.5 24.1 26.4 21.0

2010 11.0 1.8 5.8 11.0 12.1 1.5 -11.5 5.9 2.5 -2.7 11.6 14.1

Consumer prices (av; % change, year on year) 2008 6.2 6.2 7.1 7.5 8.2 9.6 9.9 9.4 8.7 7.3 5.5 3.8

2009 2.3 1.8 0.7 0.0 -1.0 -1.8 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -0.7 0.0

2010 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.3 3.1

Average monthly nominal wages (KM) 2008 1,000 1,060 1,074 1,094 1,136 1,152 1,130 1,131 1,148 1,155 1,148 1,183

2009 1,191 1,206 1,203 1,210 1,198 1,208 1,207 1,195 1,197 1,201 1,204 1,223

2010 1,203 1,190 1,215 1,217 1,211 1,216 1,216 1,219 1,220 1,213 1,229 n/a

Goods exports fob (US$ m) 2008 365.6 410.9 423.8 457.4 477.8 488.1 511.4 419.3 452.0 398.1 350.1 305.3

2009 262.7 271.5 293.4 287.5 297.3 330.4 372.8 332.7 386.2 386.9 381.0 352.0

2010 306.1 360.4 419.1 407.3 390.4 401.1 415.1 384.6 418.1 421.7 465.1 n/a

Goods imports cif (US$ m) 2008 757.8 982.6 1,082.4 1,169.6 1,135.5 1,133.3 1,210.5 1,060.2 1,083.4 1,054.4 799.8 807.4

2009 563.9 616.1 687.8 730.5 704.1 768.1 786.5 703.2 816.3 850.6 756.0 834.2

2010 525.0 660.4 753.7 774.6 759.1 732.5 805.1 770.9 850.8 861.3 841.9 n/a



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Trade balance fob-cif (US$ m) 2008 -392.1 -571.6 -658.7 -712.1 -657.7 -645.2 -699.1 -640.9 -631.4 -656.3 -449.7 -502.1

2009 -301.1 -344.6 -394.4 -443.1 -406.7 -437.7 -413.8 -370.5 -430.1 -463.7 -375.0 -482.3

2010 -218.9 -300.0 -334.6 -367.4 -368.7 -331.4 -389.9 -386.4 -432.7 -439.5 -376.8 n/a

Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m) 2008 4,297.2 4,330.4 4,547.0 4,134.3 4,071.7 4,027.4 4,109.2 3,950.7 3,843.9 3,193.2 3,177.6 3,515.5

2009 3,299.6 3,127.1 3,379.5 3,263.8 3,420.3 3,658.3 3,844.7 3,857.2 3,753.6 3,411.3 3,345.3 3,245.2

2010 2,920.8 2,796.4 2,557.4 2,222.7 2,019.8 1,856.1 2,041.0 2,181.6 2,248.9 2,277.3 n/a n/a

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; Haver Analytics.



Annual trends charts Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

Annual trends charts

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Public debt (% of GDP)

Current-account balance(% of GDP)



Real GDP growth(% change)

Consumer price inflation(av; %)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0 World East-central Europe Bosnia and Hercegovina

1211100908072006-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0


1211100908072006

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


1211100908072006-16.0

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0 East-central Europe Bosnia and Hercegovina

1211100908072006

Principal exports, 2009(share of total) (share of total)

Principal imports, 2009

Wood & woodproducts

7.1%

Others47.2%

Base metals18.9%

Mineralproducts

15.6%

Machinery &mechanicalappliances

11.2%

Base metals8.7%

Others49.0%

Mineral products16.2%

Machinery14.9%

Foodstuffs11.2%



Monthly trends charts Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

Monthly trends charts

Exchange rate(KM:US$; av)

Monetary aggregates (% change, year on year)

Consumer price inflation(% change, year on year)

Interest rates(av; %)

Aluminium: LME price(US$/metric tonne)

Oil: Brent crude price(US$/b; av)

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

OctJulAprJan10

OctJulAprJan09

OctJulAprJan08

OctJulApr2007

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

OctJulAprJan10

OctJulAprJan09

OctJulAprJan08

OctJulApr2007

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

OctJulAprJan10

OctJulAprJan09

OctJulAprJan08

OctJulApr2007

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

OctJulAprJan10

OctJulAprJan09

OctJulAprJan08

OctJulApr2007

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0 Lending rate Deposit rate

OctJulAprJan10

OctJulAprJan09

OctJulAprJan08

OctJulApr2007

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0 M2 M1

OctJulAprJan10

OctJulAprJan09

OctJulAprJan08

OctJulApr2007



Comparative economic indicators Pl ea se se e g ra p hi c b el ow

Comparative economic indicators, 2009

Gross domestic product(US$ bn; market exchange rates)

Gross domestic product(% change, year on year)

Consumer prices(% change, year on year)

Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates; national sources.

Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates; national sources.Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates; national sources.

Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit estimates; national sources.

Gross domestic product per head(US$ '000; market exchange rates)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Kyrgyz RepublicTajikistan

MoldovaTurkmenistan

ArmeniaMacedonia

GeorgiaAlbania

Bosnia and HercegovinaEstonia

LatviaUzbekistan

LithuaniaAzerbaijan

SerbiaBulgariaBelarus

SloveniaCroatia

SlovakiaKazakhstan

UkraineHungaryRomania

Czech RepublicPolandRussia

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

TajikistanKyrgyz Republic

UzbekistanMoldova

TurkmenistanGeorgiaUkraine

ArmeniaAlbania

MacedoniaBosnia and Hercegovina

AzerbaijanBelarus

SerbiaBulgaria

KazakhstanRomania

RussiaLithuania

PolandLatvia

HungaryCroatiaEstonia

SlovakiaCzech Republic

Slovenia

-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

MacedoniaBosnia and Hercegovina

EstoniaMoldovaSlovenia

Czech RepublicAzerbaijan

SlovakiaGeorgiaAlbaniaCroatia

BulgariaArmenia

PolandLatvia

HungaryLithuaniaRomania

TajikistanKyrgyz Republic

KazakhstanSerbia

TurkmenistanRussia

BelarusUzbekistan

Ukraine

-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

LatviaUkraine

LithuaniaArmeniaEstonia

SloveniaRussia

RomaniaMoldovaHungary

TurkmenistanCroatia

BulgariaSlovakia

Czech RepublicGeorgia

SerbiaBosnia and Hercegovina

MacedoniaBelarus

KazakhstanPoland

Kyrgyz RepublicAlbania

TajikistanUzbekistanAzerbaijan

1,231.8430.6

24.5



Country snapshot

Basic data

51,209 sq km (14% arable, 20% pasture and 40% forest)

4.3m at the last census (1991); estimated at 3.84m in mid-2007

Population in '000a (1991)

Sarajevo (capital) 526 Tuzla 132 Banja Luka 195 Mostar 126 Zenica 146 Prijedor 112

a There have been considerable unrecorded changes owing to the war in 1992-95. The population of most towns has increased greatly as a result of refugee movements during the war

Continental in Bosnia and parts of Hercegovina; sub-Mediterranean in southern Hercegovina

Hottest month, July, 18-23°C; coldest month, December, 0-2°C; wettest month, June, 110-115 mm average rainfall; driest month, December, 20-70 mm average rainfall

Bosnian, Serbian, Croatian (which are very similar, with the exception of the use of the Cyrillic alphabet in Serbian)

Metric system

The convertible marka (KM), subdivided into 100 pfenig, was introduced in June 1998 at a fixed rate of KM1:DM1 (since the introduction of the euro, KM1.96:�1)

One hour ahead of GMT in winter; two hours ahead in summer

Calendar year

Population

Main towns

Climate

Weather in Sarajevo

Languages

Measures

Currency

Time

Fiscal year

Land area



Political structure

The state of Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH) exists within the boundaries of the former Yugoslav republic of the same name. It includes two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Hercegovina (often referred to as the Federation), set up by the Washington Treaty of March 18th 1994, and Republika Srpska (RS). It also includes a self-governing district, Brcko, under the sovereignty of the central state government

The central state-level BiH government was granted limited responsibilities under the 1995 Dayton peace agreement. These included the establishment of a Constitutional Court, a Commission for Displaced Persons, a Human Rights Commission, a central bank, public corporations to manage and operate transport and telecommunications, a Commission to Preserve National Monuments, and a system of arbitration. Foreign trade deals are also negotiated by the BiH government. In recent years ministries of justice, security and defence have been created at state level, and the state presidency assumed central command of the armed forces in 2003. A unified indirect tax administration has been created and a state-wide value-added tax (VAT) was introduced in January 2006

BiH has a bicameral parliament comprising the House of Representatives and the House of Peoples, two-thirds of the members of which are elected from the Federation and one-third from the RS. A valid majority requires the support of at least one-third of the members representing each entity. The Federation and the RS also have parliaments

General elections took place on October 3rd 2010 to select a three-member state presidency, the RS president, and state, entity and cantonal parliaments. Next elections due in October 2014

BiH has a rotating, collective, three-member presidency. The members are Nebojsa Radmanovic (Serb), Bakir Izetbegovic (Bosniak) and Zeljko Komsic (Croat)

The Council of Ministers is BiH's state-level cabinet, headed by a chair, who is the country's de facto prime minister. Members serve four-year terms. The entities have their own governments, and cantons within the Federation also have powerful local governments

Party of Democratic Action (SDA), Party for BiH (SzBiH), Social Democratic Party of BiH (SDP BiH), Croatian Democratic Union of BiH (HDZ BiH), Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990), Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), People's Democratic Party (NDS), Socialist Party (SP)

The Dayton agreement established the Office of the High Representative (OHR), charged with monitoring the implementation of the agreement and co-ordinating the activities of international organisations. Since December 1997 the High Representative has been able to impose decisions in cases of disagreement and to dismiss "obstructive" officials

Chairman Nikola Spiric (SNSD) Deputy prime minister & finance minister Dragan Vrankic (HDZ BiH) Deputy prime minister & security minister Sadik Ahmetovic (SDA)

Civil affairs Sredoje Novic (SNSD) Communications & transport Rudo Vidovic (HDZ 1990) Defence Selmo Cikotic (SDA) Foreign affairs Sven Alkalaj (SzBiH) Foreign trade & economic relations Mladen Zirojevic (SNSD)

Legislatures

National elections

Head of state

National government

Main political parties

International involvement

State competencies

Official name

Outgoing national government

Key ministers



Human rights & refugees Safet Halilovic (SzBiH) Justice Barisa Colak (HDZ BiH)

Kemal Kozaric

Valentin Inzko

President Borjana Kristo (HDZ BiH) Vice-presidents Mirsad Kebo (SDA) Spomenka Micic (SzBiH) Prime minister Mustafa Mujezinovic (SDA) Deputy prime minister & minister of finance Vjekoslav Bevanda (HDZ BiH) Deputy prime minister & minister of sport & culture Gavrilo Grahovac (SzBiH)

Agriculture Damir Ljubic (HDZ 1990) Development, entrepreneurship & crafts Velimir Kunic (SNSD) Displaced persons & refugees Edin Music (SDA) Education & science Meliha Alic (SzBiH) Energy, mining & industry Vahid Heco (SzBiH) Environment & tourism Nevenko Herceg (HDZ BiH) Health Safet Omerovic (SzBiH) Interior Muhidin Alic (SzBiH) Justice Feliks Vidovic (HDZ BiH) Labour & social policy Perica Jelecevic (HDZ 1990) Physical planning Vacant Trade Desnica Radivojevic (SDA) Transport & communications Nail Seckanovic (SDA) Veterans' affairs Zahid Crnkic (SDA)

President Milorad Dodik (SNSD) Vice-presidents Enes Suljkanovic (SDP BiH) Emil Vlajki (NDS)

Prime minister Aleksandar Dzombic (SNSD) Deputy prime ministers Anton Kasipovic (SNSD) Dzerard Selman (SzBiH)

Administration & local government Lejla Resic (DNS) Agriculture, forestry & water management Miroslav Milovanovic (SNSD) Economic relations & regional co-operation Zeljka Cvijanovic (SNSD) Education & culture Anton Kasipovic (independent) Family, youth & sport Nada Tesanovic(SNSD) Finance Zoran Tegeltija (SNSD) Health & social welfare Ranko Skrbic (SNSD) Industry, energy & mining Zeljko Kovacevic (SNSD) Interior Stanislav Cadjo (SNSD) Justice Dzerard Selman (SzBiH) Labour & veterans Petar Djokic (SP) Physical planning, urbanism &ecology Srebrenka Golic (SNSD) Refugees & displaced persons Davor Cordas (HDZ BiH) Science & technology Jasmin Komic (independent) Trade & tourism Gorana Zlatkovic (SPRS) Transport & communications Nedeljko Cubrilovic (DNS)

Federation (outgoing government)

High Representative

Central Bank governor

Republika Srpska

Key ministers

Key ministers

country report by the economist magazine: bosnia february 2011

Documents