course wrap-up a few last words about some of the things we hope you take away from this quarter …...
Post on 19-Dec-2015
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Course wrap-upCourse wrap-up
A few last words about some of the things we hope you take away from this quarter … – Continuum of climate information– Characteristics of planning/management
situations that favor the use of climate information
– The multidimensional nature of resource issues– Causes of vulnerability in resource systems
Climate InformationClimate Information
• The past: paleoclimate and historical data• ENSO: predictions begin in June for events
occurring over the following 12 months• PDO: potential for multiyear predictions• Global warming: scenarios for future decades
and centuries
Characteristics of systems that favor the use Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate informationof climate information
Understanding of systemUnderstanding of system• What you care about is predictable• Good understanding of causal linkages between climate
and resource response• Good match between timescale of climate variation and
resource management decisions• Well-understood systems: if action is taken on a climate
forecast, right or wrong you know the consequences (a good insurance policy)
• Predictions give more benefit than alternative actions (ex: hurricane response)
• Predictions are trusted
Characteristics of systems that favor the use Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate information, of climate information, continued…
SensitivitySensitivity• Vulnerability is seen to be a problem by
decision-makers and stakeholders (earthquakes vs. global warming!)
• Decisions are already being based on resource forecasts (salmon harvest allocations, river runoff, reservoir inflows)
• High sensitivity to infrequent extreme events (floods, hurricanes, blizzards)
Characteristics of systems that favor the use Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate informationof climate information, continued…
Institutional characteristicsInstitutional characteristics• System has room & flexibility for adaptation (action is
possible)• Agencies have resources to support staff and/or projects to
develop climate related decision support tools (BPA, ACOE, SPU...)
• Availability of information and technical capacity is high• There are rewards for good decisions, penalties for poor
decisions (public versus private; jurisdiction)• Requirements for justifying decisions• Risk/reward ratio for taking action is small and understood
(hedging reservoir operations in an El Niño year)
What have we missed?
• Institutional barriers? Economic barriers? Psychology of resource management?
Characteristics of Vulnerable systemsCharacteristics of Vulnerable systems
Vulnerability: related to the difference between sensitivity - adaptability
• Imposed rigidity and/or fully (to over-) allocated resources– Expectations/allocations not matched by long-
term reality in terms of resource availability … like the Colorado River Compact, the Klamath Basin
– The ratchet effect: Yakima Basin junior rights holders versus senior rights holders
– Lack of diversification
Vulnerable resource systemsVulnerable resource systems
Time
Res
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e su
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Resource demand
Vulnerable resource systemsVulnerable resource systems
Time
Res
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Resource demand
$$$
Vulnerable resource systemsVulnerable resource systems
Time
Res
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e su
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Resource demand
$ $ $?$
Expectations matterExpectations matter
SensitivitySensitivity close to fully allocated resource
AdaptabilityAdaptability rigidity, fixed expectations, the resource ratchet
Building Capacity and Delivering Action
Building Adaptive Capacity
•Addressing institutional, legal, cultural, technical, fiscal and other barriers •Activities can be taken independent of specific climate projections
Delivering Adaptive Actions
•Implementing actions to address specific climate vulnerabilities•Choice and timing of some actions may depend on specifics of the climate projections
Two-Pronged Approach:
Characteristics of Adaptation
• ongoing process (embedded examples of existing adaptations to climate)
• adaptation = both a policy response and a spontaneous adjustment
• occurs not in isolation but within complex milieu of ecological, economic, social & institutional circumstances
• not always successful– maladaptation occurs because of other social goals,
often short-term
Interconnections between PNW resource Interconnections between PNW resource systemssystems
climateclimate
hydrologyhydrology
forestsforests
fishfish
coastscoasts
X
X X X
X X
XX X
X
X
X X X
X
E - L - NE - L - N E - L - NE - L - N E - L - NE - L - N E - L - NE - L - N
Seattle’s Water Seattle’s Water SupplySupply
• With investments in conservation and fixing leaky pipes, SPU has dramatically reduced water use while increasing the number of customers
SPU’s current SPU’s current Water supply Water supply
situationsituation
• current water stress is greatest in S. Arizona, New Mexico, and eastern Colorado
La Niña?La Niña?
• Still hanging around!
ENSO IndicatorsENSO Indicators
• Ocean surface temperatures remain cold …
• But that will likely change very soon - the subsurface ocean temperatures along the equator have been warming up (top right figure)
Surface temperature index
ENSO forecasts for the next yearENSO forecasts for the next year
• Most ENSO forecast models showing an end to La Niña by summer, then a wide range of possibilities by next fall/winter
CPC Summer CPC Summer ForecastForecast
• With lingering La Niña, forecasts show increased odds for a cool/wet spring (good for skiing, summer water, salmon … maybe not so good for sun tanning or gardening)