CPPA Overview(Climate Prediction Program for the Americas)

Jin Huang and Annarita Mariotti

NOAA Climate Program Office

Silver Spring, MDSept. 29th, 2008

• Welcome you to the 2008 PIs meeting!

• Thanks to Jill Reisdorf

Outline

• CPPA overview• Objectives, research components, strategies, Science Panel, Science Plan

• Programmatic summary• funded projects, publications, budget

• Major accomplishments

• Topics for discussion sessions

NOAA Climate GoalUnderstand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond

OUTCOMES

• A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions

• Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions

PRO

GR

AM

S

PROGRAMS• Observations and Monitoring • Climate Research and Modeling• Climate Services Development

CPPACPPA

Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA)

Mission: Improve operational intraseasonal to interannual hydroclimaticpredictions for the Americas

Science Objectives:

• Quantify the sources and limits of predictability of climate variations on intra-seasonal to interannual time scale

• Improve predictive understanding and model simulations of ocean, atmosphere and land-surface processes, including the ability to quantify uncertainty

• Advance NOAA’s operational climate forecasts, monitoring, and analysis systems by transferring research to operation

• Develop climate-based hydrologic forecasting capabilities for decision support and water resource applications

Programmatic Linkage:- CPPA contributes to CLIVAR and GEWEX- CPPA contributes to Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

CPPA Research Components

Predictability & Prediction

Land-Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction (e.g, monsoons, diurnal cycle, drought, extreme events)

Land-Atmosphere Interaction (e.g, soil moisture, snow, vegetation, orography)

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction (e.g, MJO, ENSO, IAS, ITCZ/cold tongue , air-sea fluxes)

Operational Climate Prediction,

Observations and Analysis

Climate-based Hydrologic Forecasting

and Water Resource Applications

CPPA Strategies to Improve Intra-Seasonal to Interannual

Climate Predictions and Applications

- Predictability and Process Studies

- Model Improvement

- Application Development

- Research Operations

CPPA Science Panel

Current Membership (2006-08)

Ruby Leung (Chair)Hugo BerberyMartyn ClarkDavid EnfieldChris FairallDave GutzlerWayne Higgins Paul HouserDick JohnsonJohn RoadsSiegfried SchubertEric WoodShang-Ping Xie

Starting from 2009, - Five existing members (in red) will be

rotated out.- New members will be added

• Chris Bretherton• Dave Gochis• Ben Kirtman• Eric Maloney• Dennis Lettenmaier

DRAFT CPPA Science Plan- Prepared by CPPA Science Panel & Core Project PIs- A living document and comments are welcome- Available at

http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/cppa/

Programmatic Summary

• Budget level: ~9.15M/year during last 3 years

• Funding 70 ongoing projects in FY08

• 90 peer-reviewed articles published by CPPA PIs in 2008

• Expected new projects in FY09: 15 ( ~$2M)

• Average proposal success rate: 1/3 to 1/4

• How do we set research priorities• Advice from CPPA Science Panel and science communities (GEWEX,

CLIVAR,etc) and comments from CPPA PIs• NOAA Climate Mission and NOAA operational needs• Coordination with CCSP interagency working groups• Balance with research components

CPPA FY08 Budget: $9.15 M– Research Projects $8,420K

• Air-Sea Interaction $ 2285 k – Grant (14 projects)

• Land-Atmosphere Interaction $ 2153 k– Grant $1823 k (19 projects)– Core Project (NCEP) $ 530 k

• Predictability of Climate Phenomena $ 2027 k– Monsoons $ 912 k (11 projects)– Drought $1115 k (13 projects)

• Multi-RCM project $836k

• Hydrologic Forecasts $ 1119 k– Grant $739 k ( 7 projects)– Core Project (OHD) $380 k

– Data Management $ 430 K– Program Support $ 300 K

CPPA Major Activities & AccomplishmentsPredictability of Climate Phenomena

Monsoons

Extremes

Droughts

Tropical influences on drought North America (Huang and Seager)

Diurnal mechanism along the SMO (Nesbitt and Gochis)

MJO Variability

Impact of intraseasonalvariability on the formation of tropical Atlantic Storms (P. Webster)

Composite of unfiltered wind vectors and precipitation for the easterly and westerly MJO phases (Maloney)

CPPA Major Activities & AccomplishmentsProcess Studies: Air-Sea Interaction

EPIC data are used for analyzing stratocumulus cloud and ITCZ convection in climate models (C. Bretherton)

VOCALS Science Questions:- Why is SE Tropical Pacific so cold & cloudy?- Why can’t global models get this right?- What are roles of topography, ocean eddies & upwelling, natural and anthro. aerosol?

-CPPA supports - VOCALS Field Experiment in Oct-Nov,2008- VOCALS modeling projects in NCEP and GFDL

Climate Impacts of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool on the Americas (C-Z Wang)

VOCALS

CPPA Major Activities & AccomplishmentsProcess Studies (Land-Atmosphere Interaction)

GLACE-2: Quantifying the Effects of Land Moisture Initialization on Precipitation Forecasts (R. Koster)

A snow evolution modeling system (SnowModel) and A Simple Data Assimilation System (SnowAssim)(Liston and L. Lu)

Impact of Vegetation and Soil Moisture Feedback on Precipitation (after G. Wang)

Increase in forecast skill associated with land initialization for monthly precipitation (left) and monthly air temperature (right), as determined from a pilot experiment (the prototype for GLACE-2)

CPPA Major Activities & AccomplishmentsModel Development

- Diagnoses of tropical biases in CGCMs (Mechoso and H. Pan)-- Using VOCALS data to develop and evaluate stratiform cloud parameterizations (L. Donner)

Improvements in snow modelling include:- snow simulations and the diurnal cycle of the skin temperature of snow, and melting processes. - runoff and the simulation of soil moisture in winter time. (Z-L Yang, K. Mitchell)

Improving Noah Land ModelCFS Errors

CPPA Major Activities & AccomplishmentsImproving Climate Forecasting

Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) of multi-GCM Seasonal Forecasts (Arritt & others): -Objective: to demonstrate the usefulness of multi-RCM downscaling of global seasonal forecasts- Central archive accessible for communities

Test impacts of different land models and land initial land states on CFS reforecasts (K. Mitchell)

00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09

OSU/GR2

Noah/G

R2

Noah/G

LDAS

Noah/G

LDAS C

limo

CONUS-average Anomaly Correlation: CFS JJA ensemble mean precipitation forecasts

Investigating the role of radiation and winds in CFS biases (P. Xie and W. Wang)

Memory of John Roads (1950-2008)

CPPA Major Activities & AccomplishmentsImproving Hydrologic Forecasting

Other funded activities:- Snow data assimilations (Clark and Slator; P. Houser)- Participate Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP-2)- Multi-model data integration and assimilation system fpr NWSRFS ensemble hydrologic predictions (Toll)- Development a coupled distributed model with WRF for large watersheds (Bras)- Regional hydrologic forecasting model in California (Sorooshian)

- Development of eXperimentalEnsemble Forecast System (XEFS) at NWS/OHD (Restrepo)

- Implemented various components at RFCs

IFP

OFS

Raw flow ens.

Pp’edflow ens.

Ensemble Verification

System

Flow Data

Product Generation Subsystem

Ensemble verification products

Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcaster

Ens. User Interface

EPP User Interface

Ens. Pre-Processor

Atmospheric forcing data

Ensemble/prob.

products

Ens. Post-Proc.

Ens. Streamflow Prediction System

HMOS Ensemble Processor

MODs

EPP3 ESP2 EnsPost EPG

EVS

Hydro-meteorol.

ensembles

XEFS Graphical User Interface

Web Inter-face

CPPA Major Activities & AccomplishmentsApplications of Climate Predictions

Contributing to Drought Monitoring and Prediction Products(Mitchell, K. Mo, B. Cosgrove)

Prototype Fire Danger Forecast System (N. Zeng)Experimental Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction System (Lettenmaier & Wood))

CPPA Major Activities & AccomplishmentsTransitioning Research to Operations

Contributions to NOAA Operations:-Developed and Implemented of the land component in NCEP next generations CFS

- Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS)- Noah Land Model

- Reducing tropical biases in CFS- Improving hydrologic forecasting in NWS/OHD and RFCs- Global Monsoon Monitor at CPC- Drought monitoring and prediction products (contributing to NIDIS) K. Mitchell

Transitioning Mechanisms

- Core Projects (NCEP/EMC, OHD&RFCs)- conduct operation-related research and implementation- transfer research results from CPPA PIs to NWS operations

.- CPPA Synthesis Teams & Joint university-NCEP competitive projects

- NOAA Climate Test Bed

Topics for Discussion Sessions

Topics:1) gaps of knowledge2) impact of past field experiments 3) potential new emerging priorities4) paths to improved climate and hydrologic operations

Questions:

- Have we reached the plateau of seasonal-interannual prediction?

- How to significantly improve ISI predictions?

- How to measure progress and success?

- How to evaluate readiness of research results for transition to operations?

- How to incorporate operational needs into research priorities?