creating a decision requirements table
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Creating a Decision Requirements Table. Examples Initiation of convection / Forecasting thunderstorm potential Forecasting potential for severe convection Identifying transition to severe convection Forecasting weather associated with convection Timing the arrival of a front - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Creating a Decision Requirements TableCreating a Decision Requirements TableIdentify a critical and difficult decision or judgement:
What makes this decision difficult?
What kind of errors are often made?
How would an expert make this decision differently from a novice?
(identify cues and strategies.)
How can you practice and get feedback to help you make this decision next time?
• Rare event• Insufficient data• Inadequate
conceptual models• No clear-cut
thresholds• Not enough time
• Don’t notice LLJ• Ignore hodograph• Assume same as
yesterday• Assume NWP is
accurate• Ignore water
vapour imagery• Don’t think it’s a
convection day
• Anticipating possibility• Awareness of ingredients• Maintaining radar watch• Early detection of boundaries• Recognition of conceptual
models
Diagnose reasons for failure, record forecast reasoning, refine conceptual model, ...
Examples•Initiation of convection / Forecasting thunderstorm potential•Forecasting potential for severe convection•Identifying transition to severe convection•Forecasting weather associated with convection•Timing the arrival of a front•Fog prediction at local airport
Situation
Patterns
CluesAction Scripts
Mental models
Mental simulation
generates
that let you recognise
that activate
to run a
use your
that inform decisions
Making Intuitive Decisions Via PatternsMaking Intuitive Decisions Via Patterns
to test
Meteor’l situation
Conceptualmodels
CluesModel evolution
generates
that let you recognise
that activate
FORECASTSFORECASTS
Making Intuitive Meteorological DecisionsMaking Intuitive Meteorological Decisionsobs, NWP
Mental simulation
To improve: To improve: acquire more acquire more patterns and strategies; practise.patterns and strategies; practise.
use your
to test
to run a
Mental models
Existing Storm
Severe storm
features
CluesSupercell script
generates
that let you recognise
that activate
FORECASTSFORECASTS
Is a Storm Becoming Severe?Is a Storm Becoming Severe?
Radar imagery
Mental simulation
use your
to test
to run a
Conceptual models
Change of dir’n,Rotation, BWE,Tilted updraft
Repeat for weather & Issue warning
Existing Storm
Diagnose severe storm
weather
CluesWeather warnings
generates
that let you recognise
that activate
FORECASTSFORECASTS
What weather will it have?What weather will it have?
Obs, Radar
Mental simulation
use your
to test
to run a
Mental models
Hail, downdraft or heavy rain
Issue whr. warning