crispin strategy day - nielsen pt
TRANSCRIPT
Cider Overview February 2013
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$36 $46 $60
$10 $13
$48
2010 2011 2012
Cider Sales (MM) $ Vol YA $ Vol Chg vs YA
+29%
+81%
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12
Cider is growing at high rates, and doubled share of category in the past year
$ Share of Category 0.2 0.2 0.4
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1.2%
35.6%
15.3%
9.5%
2.5% 0.2%
-‐3.2%
MALT BASED/CIDER
CIDER CRAFT FMB W/COOLERS
IMPORTS PREMIUM BELOW PREMIUM
Compounded Annual Growth Rate 2009 -‐ Present
Cider has the highest annual growth rate out of all segments in category
Source: Nielsen Total US Cross-Channel (incl: Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club, & C-Store) x Liquor ; 52 WE 2.09.2013
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
4 W/E 01/31/09
4 W/E 07/18/09
4 W/E 01/02/10
4 W/E 06/19/10
4 W/E 12/04/10
4 W/E 05/21/11
4 W/E 11/05/11
4 W/E 04/21/12
4 W/E 10/06/12
$ Sales (Thousands)
Angry Orchard Michelob ULC Hornsby's Magner's Strongbow Crispin Cider Co Woodchuck All Other
New brands conAnue to change the landscape of Cider
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Trended Data through 12/29/12
Angry Orchard and Michelob ULC were around 70% of Dollar growth in 2012
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With the entrance of new products, exisAng brands conAnue to grow, but experience share declines
5.4%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
2009 2010 2011 2012
$ Sales and Share of Cider
Angry Orchard Michelob ULC Hornsby's Magner's
Strongbow Crispin Cider Co Woodchuck All Other
41.2% 33.4%
38.2%
26.9%
13.6% 43.5%
46.5%
35.2%
24.3%
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Calendar Years
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Since 2009, Hornsby’s has lost nearly 30 share points of Cider
2012 $ Share 2012 $ Share Change 2009 $ Share
Woodchuck 35.2 (11.3) 38.2
Angry Orchard 24.3 23.0 N/A
Hornsby’s 13.6 (13.2) 41.2
Michelob ULC 5.7 5.7 N/A
Strongbow 5.1 (2.0) 6.5
Crispin Cider Co 5.0 1.8 0.5
Wyder’s 1.8 (0.9) 2.9
Ace 1.5 (0.3) 1.4
Magner’s 1.4 (0.5) 1.3
Spire Mountain 1.4 (0.5) 0.8
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12
Crispin was the only pre-‐exisAng brand in the top 10 who saw share growth this year
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$20.30
$29.87 $31.79 $33.40 $33.86 $34.34 $34.67
$35.73
$40.81 $42.17 $43.67
$48.16
$53.25
Regular Case Price
Crispin maintains its unique posiAon in premium pricing
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12
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SegmentaAon strategy for Cider
Accessible Cider ConvenXonal Cider Upmarket Cider
Entry point to “trade-‐up/trade-‐in” to cider segment
Easily recognizable desAnaAons given
experience in segment
More sophisAcated and “high-‐end” consumers
seeking premium selecAon
Source: Nielsen Total US Cross-Channel (incl: Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club, & C-Store) x Liquor ; 52 WE 2.09.2013 Thru 2012
• ConvenAonal ciders drive greatest volume -‐ 67% • Growth opportuniAes across all three segments
$6.99 -‐ $7.99 $7.99 -‐ $9.99 $9.99 -‐ $10.99
Region / Retailer
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The Southeast and Pacific are leading growth for Cider
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 vs. 2011 – Grocery/Convenience
% Vol Chg vs YA
Share of Total
ContribuXon to Growth
Cider 25.0%
Pacific Region
22.4% 65%
7.3%
% Vol Chg vs YA
Share of Total
ContribuXon to Growth
Cider 10.0%
Central Region
10.4% 84%
% Vol Chg vs YA
Share of Total
ContribuXon to Growth
Cider 18.7%
Great Lakes Region
19.6% 86%
% Vol Chg vs YA
Share of Total
ContribuXon to Growth
Cider 27.6%
Southeast Region
26.1% 71%
% Vol Chg vs YA
Share of Total
ContribuXon to Growth
Cider 18.7%
Northeast Region
21.5% 103%
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Opportunity sAll exists across all regions for Cider
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 – Grocery/Convenience
50.9 48.2 48.0
35.8
51.7
7.7 11.0
6.2 5.4 4.9
-‐
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
-‐
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Great Lakes Northeast Southeast Central Pacific
DistribuXon by Region Cider
% ACV (Breadth) % ACV Chg vs YA Avg # Items Carried (Depth)
Crispin $ / pt. ACV $24,144 $28,771 $36,315 $20,869 $56,155
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Velocity Chg vs. YA 53 298 115 (98) 168
The coastal regions saw the largest velocity gains this year
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 vs. 2011, Grocery/Convenience
$406
$731
$421
$493
$627
Great Lakes Northeast Southeast Central Pacific
Velocity by Region Cider
Avg. $ Sales/$MM
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Grocery channel leads, but Convenience is growing
2009 2010 2011 2012
Cider Case Sales % by Channel
Food Convenience Drug Walmart All Other
87% 86% 85%
78%
12%
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12
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Crispin
DistribuAon popped for cider within Convenience and Walmart in summer of 2012
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Trended Data through 12/29/12
Michelob
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
4 W/E 01/31/09
4 W/E 07/18/09
4 W/E 01/02/10
4 W/E 06/19/10
4 W/E 12/04/10
4 W/E 05/21/11
4 W/E 11/05/11
4 W/E 04/21/12
4 W/E 10/06/12
Cider -‐ %ACV
Convenience Food Drug Walmart
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Meijer accounted for more growth than expected for Cider, while many have for Crispin
% Cider $ % Cider Growth % Crispin $ % Crispin
Growth
Kroger Corp 13.8 11.6 15.2 14.4
Publix 6.5 6.3 7.6 11.8
Safeway Corp 6.3 6.0 7.4 6.2
Delhaize Corp 5.1 4.5 0.9 1.1
Supervalu 4.3 4.0 3.6 2.5
Meijer 2.6 2.8 2.6 3.7
Hy Vee 2.2 2.2 3.7 3.0
Harris Teeter 2.2 1.8 3.2 3.7
Wegman’s 2.1 1.6 1.5 2.0
Giant Eagle 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.2
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12
The Cider Buyer
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39.5%
14.8% 10.0%
14.6%
Net % Change Market Expansion Malt Based/Cider New
Buyers Shibing
Retained Cider buyers +6.3%
New Cider buyers +8.5%
Source of Volume – Cider
Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel (Food/Drug/Liquor;) 52 WE 6/30/12 vs YAG
Cider brings in new buyers to the category
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Source: Nielsen HomeScan, Total U.s. All Outlets, 2012
PenetraAon has doubled since 2009, with buyers spending more per occasion
0.9 1.2 1.2
1.8
2009 2010 2011 2012
PenetraXon
$16.46 $17.24 $16.81
$19.71
2009 2010 2011 2012
Dollars per Buyer
$8.52 $8.50
$9.75 $9.81
2009 2010 2011 2012
Dollars per Occasion
1.9 2.0
1.7
2.0
2009 2010 2011 2012
Purchase Frequency
Purchase Frequency dips were seen among Super Premiums and Premium in 2011
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80 80
52 46
39 36
29
19
80 77
53
42
36 32
29
16
Above Premium
Beer Only Crams Imports FMB Premium Super Premium
Below Premium
% Cider Buyers Purchasing 2011 2012
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA
Most Cider buyers buy above premium as compared to lower priced opAons
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315
183 196
147 129
97 76 66
279
232
186
131 130
95 80
62
Crams FMB Above Premium
Imports Super Premium
Beer Only Premium Below Premium
Fair Share EQ Volume Index 2011 2012
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA
Cider conAnues to interact heavily with Above Premium, especially Cram beers
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Cider buyers are more valuable than those of other segments
$70.17 $69.55 $67.14 $66.80 $63.05
$56.96 $56.83
$41.77
FMB Crams Imports Super Premium
Cider Beer Only exc Cider
Above Premium
Below Premium
Basket Size ($) (Items in Basket)
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA
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Demographics Activities TV
• Young! (38% of buyers are under 35)
• Income: Mostly Affluent (49% make $70k+)
• No strong ethnic skew (80% of buyers are white)
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total US, 52 w/e 9/29/12; Nielsen Spectra, Target Snapshot, Cider proxy profile
Cider buyers are young, internet adept
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Cider interacts heavily with highly educated, affluent young shoppers Cider
DistribuXon of Dollars
Cider Index Angry Orchard Index
Woodchuck Index
Income < 20 11.3 72 46* 62*
20 – 29 k 8.3 63 41* 94*
30 – 39 k 10.2 91 153 69
40 -‐49 k 7.4 74 103* 80
50 – 69 k 18.7 118 132 78
70-‐ 99 k 16.5 107 109 116
100+ k 27.5 149 120 173
Age < 35 35.4 207 217 140
35 -‐ 44 15.9 125 114 152
45 -‐ 54 13.1 65 85 70
55 -‐ 64 8.3 53 55 60
65+ 4.6 36 27* 35
No Female HoH 22.6 107 89 135
No HS Grad 1.1 33
HS Grad 19.1 70 75 64
Some College 23.2 93 111 73
College Grad 34.1 145 124 153
*Use DirecXonally – low sample Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA, Dollar Index
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What’s causing Cider’s growth? Greater availability
• Increased distribuAon – across regions, retailers, and channels, distribuAon has increased. • DistribuAon picked up in Convenience and Walmart in the middle of 2012, with
Crispin leading the growth in Walmart.
• PenetraAon has doubled between 2009 and 2012 for cider.
• New brands – the two biggest new brands in 2012 were 70% of Dollar growth.
• The buyer – affluent, educated, young buyers are being brought over from outside of the beer category. • These buyers are of high value to retailers.
AddiAonal Food for Thought
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Trader Joe’s can be another opportunity for Crispin, as its top selling categories interact heavily with Cider
Quote from Joe Heron Source: Nielsen Channel Facts Mid 2012 (52 Weeks Ending 6/30/12), Item $
Total US Trader Joe’s Whole Foods Carb Bev Wine Fresh Produce
Pet Food Deli Meats Vitamins
Snacks Fresh Produce Snacks
Paper Products Paper Products Yogurt
Bread/Baked Goods Snacks Prep Food -‐ RTE
Prep Frozen Foods Beer Milk
Fresh Produce Candy Cheese
Deli Meats Cereal Bread/Baked Goods
Electronics Eggs Juices (Shelf Stab)
Cheese Prep Food -‐ RTE Prep Frozen Foods
Cider is a “bridge between beer and wine”
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Avenues allowing the consumer to explore and discover have led growth for Crams
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 vs. 2011– All Outlet inc. Convenience
32.7
20.6
10.4 9.8 7.2
4.5 4.0 3.9 2.7 1.7
Share of Crabs by Style
Seasonal and Variety packs were about 33% and 15% of overall Crab
growth, respecXvely.
Share Gaining Franchises Case Share of Crabs Case Share Chg vs YA Crabs Case Vol %Chg vs YA
LEINENKUGEL'S 7.0 1.1 36.2
LAGUNITAS 1.3 0.3 49.4
MULTIPLE VALUE (Pick 6) 0.9 0.3 70.9
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2 SKUs = $39,796,038
19%
81%
Sam Adams Seasonal 6 PK Sam Adams Seasonal 6P Sam Adams Remaining Porxolio
1 SKU = $40,819,019
Seasonal packages provide nice boosts for porxolios
Source: Nielsen Total US Cross-Channel (incl: Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club, & C-Store) x Liquor ; 52 WE 2.09.2013
Craft Case Study is thru 2012
42% 58%
Leinie's Summer Shandy 6PK & 12PK Summer Shandy Seasonal 6P & 12P Leinie's Remaining Porxolio
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Cram and Ciders deliver common trends
What common trends are relevant among Ciders & Crams?
New Flavor Experiences
Product CollaboraXons
InnovaXve Packaging
Beer is Local
Leb: Virtue Cider & Oliver’s Cider CollaboraAon
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How can Crispin drive Cider? ConAnue to differenAate
• Appeal to many different consumers by offering premium products spanning mulAple steps of JourneyFlow • Areas of growth within Cram help the consumer explore – and Cram interacts heaviest
with Cider
• Trader Joe’s – help them bridge beer and wine!
• Explore packaging that can conAnue to appeal to new shoppers/groups • More offerings within cans or bombers could make sense – especially if focusing on
Convenience
• Locate and develop in markets that have unmet demand for Cider
Appendix
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72
74
76
78
80
82
84
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4 W/E 01/31/09
4 W/E 07/18/09
4 W/E 01/02/10
4 W/E 06/19/10
4 W/E 12/04/10
4 W/E 05/21/11
4 W/E 11/05/11
4 W/E 04/21/12
4 W/E 10/06/12
Any Feature or Display % ACV Selling Crams Cider Malt Based/Cider
Cider is seen as a special occasion purchase
The sharp spike in promo support around the holidays relaAve to Beer and Cram suggests Cider is seen as a special occasion purchase
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Trended Data through 12/29/12
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
4 W/E 01/28/12
4 W/E 03/24/12
4 W/E 05/19/12
4 W/E 07/14/12
4 W/E 09/08/12
4 W/E 11/03/12
4 W/E 12/29/12
%ACV Food
Angry Orchard Michelob ULC Woodchuck Hornsby's Crispin
Hornsby’s steadily decreased distribuAon through 2012, with Angry Orchard nearly having more distribuAon than Woodchuck
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Trended Data through 12/29/12
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Angry Orchard conAnues to climb within Convenience, while Michelob’s inital rapid growth halted in the back half of 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
4 W/E 01/28/12
4 W/E 03/24/12
4 W/E 05/19/12
4 W/E 07/14/12
4 W/E 09/08/12
4 W/E 11/03/12
4 W/E 12/29/12
%ACV Convenience
Angry Orchard Michelob ULC Woodchuck Hornsby's Crispin
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Trended Data through 12/29/12
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Crispin closed the year with the highest distribuAon within Walmart!
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
4 W/E 01/28/12
4 W/E 03/24/12
4 W/E 05/19/12
4 W/E 07/14/12
4 W/E 09/08/12
4 W/E 11/03/12
4 W/E 12/29/12
%ACV Walmart
Angry Orchard Michelob ULC Woodchuck Hornsby's Crispin
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, Trended Data through 12/29/12
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All of the top share gainers in Cider were new since 2009 aside from Crispin Cider Co.
38.2% 43.5% 46.5%
35.2%
24.3%
Source: Nielsen ScanTrack, All Outlet inc. Convenience, $ Share
2012 Share Change 2012 Share 2009 Share
Angry Orchard 23.0 24.3 N/A
Michelob ULC 5.7 5.7 N/A
Crispin 1.6 4.1 0.2
Fox Barrel 0.2 0.8 0.4
McKenzie’s 0.2 0.7 N/A
Oliver 0.2 0.2 N/A
Bold Rock 0.1 0.1 N/A
Julian 0.1 0.2 N/A
2 Towns 0.1 0.1 N/A
Tieton Cider Works 0.1 0.1 N/A
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6 & 4 packs account for 86% of total volume for Cider
Booles = 96.6% of Cider Volume
Cans = 3.2% of Cider Volume
Remaining volume is from Oliver’s Aluminum booles and Boxed Cider
Source: Nielsen Scantrack Data, 2012 vs. 2011– All Outlet inc. Convenience
6.5%
2.6%
83.4%
7.4%
Pack Size Trends -‐ Booles
6.6%
79.6%
13.8%
Pack Size Trends -‐ Cans
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350
247
216
155 139
93
37
86
308
205 191
151
120
91 65 59
Crams FMB Above Premium less Cider
Super Premium
Imports Beer Only exc Cider
Below Premium
Premium
Fair Share EQ Volume Index Woodchuck 2011 2012
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA
Woodchuck has high interacAon with Above Premium brands
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244
210 196
167
116 93
68
29
Crams Super Premium FMB Above Premium less
Cider
Premium Beer Only exc Cider
Imports Below Premium
Fair Share EQ Volume Index Michelob ULC
2012
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA
Michelob ULC has more interacAon with Super Premiums than FMB’s
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327 303
203
131 119
88 71
51
FMB Crams Above Premium less Cider
Super Premium
Imports Beer Only exc Cider
Premium Below Premium
Fair Share EQ Volume Index Angry Orchard
2012
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S., 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/12 vs. YA
Angry Orchard interacts heaviest with FMB’s
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Of fruits and Cider, seasonal and citrus rank highly Citruses index the highest among fruits
Fruit Index Basket Value Pumpkins* 295.8 $103.77
Citrus 183.6 $89.21
Pineapples 167.3 $130.63
Mandarins 148.2 $96.77
Tropical Fruit 140.1 $125.73
Raspberries 139.6 $132.60
Melons* 135.0 $127.94
Apples 132.9 $126.71
Berries 131.9 $129.14
Pears 130.2 $115.57
Cherries 129.6 $115.51
* = In a small amount of baskets overall Source: Nielsen ShopperVue, 2012, Index = Affinity Index , Cider and Fruit
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Fruit is in Cider baskets more omen than in average baskets Apples, Citrus, and Oranges are in the same basket most omen out of top-‐indexed fruits
Fruit % Crab Baskets w/ Fruit % All Baskets w/ Fruit
Pumpkins* 0.2 0.1
Citrus 4.6 2.5
Pineapples 0.6 0.4
Mandarins 0.8 0.6
Tropical Fruit 1.2 0.8
Raspberries 1.2 0.9
Melons* 0.1 0.1
Apples 5.9 4.5
Berries 0.8 0.6
Pears 1.0 0.7
Cherries 0.9 0.7
* = Low occurrences of item in basket overall Source: Nielsen ShopperVue, 2012, Index = Affinity Index , Cider and Fruit
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Cider producAon across Cideries, Wineries, and Breweries
• Of top 20 brands -‐ Cideries are sAll responsible for majority of segment volume • Brewery-‐produced ciders are driving volume to category
Cideries 60%
Breweries 15%
Wineries 25%
Cider ProducXon Breakdown
Breweries 29%
Cideries 52%
Wineries 19%
2012 Case Volume
Source: Nielsen Total US Cross-Channel (incl: Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club, & C-Store) x Liquor ; 52 WE 2.09.2013 Thru 2012
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Cider producAon across Cideries, Wineries, and Breweries
Cideries Wineries Breweries 2 TOWNS CIDERHOUSE WYDERS ANGRY ORCHARD
BLACKTHORN ACE MICHELOB ULTRA LIGHT CIDER
BOLD ROCK DOC'S DRAFT
CRISPIN HORNSBY'S
FOX BARREL LAKE CHELAN WINERY
J.K. SCRUMPY'S ORIGINAL SIN
JULIAN MCKENZIE'S
MAGNERS
SPIRE MOUNTAIN
STRONGBOW
WOODCHUCK
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Boston is bringing in unique households through Angry Orchard
Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel, Total U.S. All Outlets, YTD Ending 8/25/12
Twisted Tea
10.5% HH 28.9% Vol
Angry Orchard
7.6% HH 4.1% Vol
Boston less Angry Orchard/Twisted Tea
78.6% Households 62.4% Unit Volume
1.7% HH 3.0% Vol
1.3% HH 1.4% Vol
0.3% HH 0.3% Vol
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Stella Artois introduced a hard cider in the UK market in Feb
2011
Coming up…
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78 78
63 59
51 51
35
19
4
80 77
64
56
49 44
34
20
10
% Cider Buyers Purchasing Alcohol Segments
YAG Current Year
Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel Data 52 we 10/15/11 vs.YAG – Total US
More cider buyers buy wine than beer
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2013 The
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341
246
120
65
117 94
73 88
64
254
208
131 119 115
103 91 83
65
InteracXon Across Alcohol Segments
YAG Current Year
Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel Data 52 we 10/15/11 vs.YAG – Total US
Cider interacts with Above Premium, parAcularly Cram beers.
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Cider total basket ring exceeds Spirits and Beer
$57.69
$65.44
$62.69
$58.25 $57.48
TOTAL ALCOHOL
WINE CIDER SPIRITS BEER
Dollars Per Trip Trips with Item In Basket
Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel Data 52 we 10/15/11 vs.YAG – Total US