Cumbria Health Protection Board

Weekly COVID-19 SummaryWeek 31 (Ending Friday 31st July)

Summary Produced Wednesday 5th August

Produced By Cumbria Resilience Multi Agency Intelligence Cell (MAIC) 1

Weekly Summary

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Key points for week ending 31 July (Week 31):

• 59 new cases in Cumbria - increase from previous week

• New positive cases increased in Carlisle, South Lakeland, Allerdale and

Barrow-in-Furness

• Currently no change to the existing public health advice;

• Carlisle has the highest number and rate of new positive cases than other

areas in Cumbria; both Carlisle and Eden’s rates remain higher than the

national average

• The number of contacts being traced has increased in line with positive

cases; local contact tracing remains significant for situational awareness;

• Close monitoring of the data continues, in particular in South Lakeland;

• If the number of positive cases in an area continues to increase the advice

may change.

Cases

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Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result

Key Points for Cumbria’s districts in Week 31:

• Carlisle had the greatest number of new cases (+26 new cases), up from +14 new cases in week 30);

• Carlisle also overtook Eden in having the highest rate of new cases (+26 new cases = 24 new cases per 100k population);

• Both Eden and Carlisle’s rates of new cases were well above the national average (Eden = 17 new cases per 100k population and

Carlisle = 24 new cases per 100 population vs. England’s 8 cases per 100k population);

• As well as Carlisle, South Lakeland, Allerdale and Barrow-in-Furness all experienced increases in new cases;

• South Lakeland experienced the second greatest numerical increase after Carlisle, so that South Lakeland now has the second highest

number of new cases (+10 new cases, up from +7 new cases in week 30).

Mid-2019

PopulationNew Positive

Cases

Rate of New

Positive

Cases Per

100,000

Population

Total

Positive

Cases

New

Positive

Cases

Rate of

New

Positive

Cases Per

100,000

Population

Numerical

Change in

New

Positive

Cases

% Change

in New

Positive

Cases

Increase in

Rate of

New

Positive

Cases Per

100,000

Persons

Cumbria 500,012 47 9 2,855 59 12 12 26 2

Allerdale 97,761 6 6 358 8 8 2 33 2

Barrow-in-Furness 67,049 1 1 706 2 3 1 100 1

Carlisle 108,678 14 13 723 26 24 12 86 11

Copeland 68,183 4 6 340 4 6 0 0 0

Eden 53,253 15 28 203 9 17 -6 -40 -11

South Lakeland 105,088 7 7 520 10 10 3 43 3

Weekly Summary: Public Health England (PHE) COVID 19 Positive Cases (Includes Pillar 1 & Pillar 2)

Week 30 (Ending 24 Jul 20) Week 31 (Ending 31 Jul 20) Week 30 - Week 31 Change

Source: PHE Postcode COVID-19 Positive Cases Data

Last Updated: 04/08/2020

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Cumbria Cases

Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result

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District CasesCarlisle has had the greatest number of new cases for five of the last six weeks.

South Lakeland had the second highest number of new cases in the last week, with South Lakeland’s

new cases having increased over each of the last three weeks.

Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result.

Daily Lab-confirmed cases – Pillar 1 & 2[Preliminary up to 2nd August]

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20-Jul

21-Jul 22-Jul

23-Jul

24-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul

28-Jul

29-Jul

30-Jul

31-Jul

01-Aug

02-Aug

Allerdale 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 2

Barrow 1 1 1

Carlisle 3 2 1 3 1 5 2 5 6 3 3 2

Copeland 3 1 1 1 2

Eden 2 2 6 5 1 1 1 1 1 4 1

South Lakeland

2 2 1 1 6 3 1 1 2

Cumbria 8 8 11 8 4 2 7 13 11 11 5 10 3 4

[Data is subject to revisions]

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Updated Tuesday 4 August 2020 at 10:39pm]

R estimates & Growth Rates NHS Region

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Region RGrowth rate % per day

England 0.8-1.0 -4 to -1

East of England* 0.7-1.0 -6 to -1

London* 0.8-1.0 -4 to 0

Midlands 0.7-0.9 -6 to -2

North East and Yorkshire* 0.7-0.9 -6 to -2

North West* 0.8-1.1 -5 to +1

South East 0.8-1.0 -3 to 0

South West* 0.8-1.1 -4 to +1

Source: gov.uk. Friday 31st July.

North Cumbria falls within the North East and

Yorkshire region.

The values are shown as a range, the most likely true

values are somewhere towards the middle of this range.

*Low case numbers and/ or a high degree of variability in

transmission across the region means these estimates are

insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions.

Local Contact Tracing

The national test and trace system is complimented by local contact-tracing and focussed on cases linked to an organisation:

• In the week ending Tuesday 4th August 47 index cases across Cumbria have been logged on the local system, these include early-intervention work with schools when someone displays symptoms

• From the 47 index cases a further 114 contacts have been identified and traced with the majority related to Carlisle

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